Daily Pitcher Breakdown: April 7th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
Editor’s Note: Cardinals at Cubs has been postponed due to inclement weather.
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vogelsong | SFG | ARI | 184.2 | 4.00 | 3.98 | 1.28 | 52.6% | 19.4% | 7.4% | 0.88 | 1.03 |
| De La Rosa | ARI | SFG | 101.2 | 4.43 | 4.21 | 1.49 | 57.1% | 16.8% | 7.9% | 1.06 | 1.42 |
| Lynn | STL | CHC | 203.2 | 2.74 | 3.84 | 1.26 | 60.0% | 20.9% | 8.3% | 0.57 | 1.23 |
| Arrieta | CHC | STL | 156.2 | 2.53 | 2.83 | 0.99 | 50.0% | 27.2% | 6.7% | 0.29 | 1.73 |
| Lewis | TEX | OAK | 170.1 | 5.18 | 4.22 | 1.52 | 11.8% | 17.5% | 6.3% | 1.32 | 0.75 |
| Hahn | OAK | TEX | 73.1 | 3.07 | 3.73 | 1.21 | 57.1% | 22.9% | 10.5% | 0.49 | 1.83 |
| Chen | BAL | TBR | 185.2 | 3.54 | 3.85 | 1.23 | 31.6% | 17.6% | 4.5% | 1.11 | 1.09 |
| Karns | TBR | BAL | 12 | 4.50 | 3.24 | 0.92 | 26.5% | 8.2% | 2.25 | 1.00 | |
| Wilson | LAA | SEA | 175.2 | 4.51 | 4.23 | 1.45 | 42.1% | 19.8% | 11.2% | 0.87 | 1.62 |
| Paxton | SEA | LAA | 74 | 3.04 | 3.80 | 1.20 | 50.0% | 19.5% | 9.6% | 0.36 | 2.43 |
| Wood | ATL | MIA | 171.2 | 2.78 | 3.16 | 1.14 | 58.3% | 24.5% | 6.5% | 0.84 | 1.33 |
| Latos | MIA | ATL | 102.1 | 3.25 | 4.08 | 1.15 | 66.7% | 17.6% | 6.2% | 0.79 | 0.94 |
| Lyles | COL | MIL | 126.2 | 4.33 | 4.10 | 1.37 | 58.3% | 16.5% | 8.4% | 0.85 | 2.01 |
| Garza | MIL | COL | 163.1 | 3.64 | 4.02 | 1.18 | 35.0% | 18.5% | 7.4% | 0.66 | 1.20 |
| Ross | SDP | LAD | 195.2 | 2.81 | 3.21 | 1.21 | 66.7% | 24.0% | 8.9% | 0.60 | 2.58 |
| Greinke | LAD | SDP | 202.1 | 2.71 | 2.87 | 1.15 | 50.0% | 25.2% | 5.2% | 0.85 | 1.70 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Zack Greinke LAD (vs. SD) – Greinke is king of the mountain today, and the right-hander matches up well with the mercenaries that San Diego hired in the off-season. Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, and Derek Norris all mash lefties, but a righty with a good off-speed pitch can leave them waving. Greinke’s 5.2% walk rate last season was the lowest mark since his rookie year (2004), while his 25.2% K rate was his highest mark in three years. He’s playing this season with an opt-out of his contract lurking on the horizon, giving him extra motivation to shove it every time he takes the mound.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Editor’s Note: Cardinals at Cubs has been postponed due to inclement weather.
Jake Arrieta CHC (vs. STL) – The stuff was already there (fastball that averages more than 94 mph, a pair of sharp breaking pitches), but Arrieta made improvements to his mechanical consistency last season, allowing him to take command of a deadly arsenal. He draws a tough opening assignment with the rival Cardinals, but he dominated St. Louis last year with a 1.21 ERA across four starts, spanning 22.3 innings in which he recorded 28 strikeouts against nine walks. His K rate of 27.2% last season was more than five ticks higher than any other season in his past, his walk rate was a career low at 6.7%, and his rate of extra-base hits dropped from a steady 8% to an ultra-low 4.7%. He might give back some of that improvement, but I expect most of his statistical gains to stick.
Lance Lynn STL (@ CHC) – The question with Lynn is always the walk rate. His low arm slot gives way to a lot of sideways run on his pitches, and patient teams can reap the benefit of free passes (between 3.2 and 3.4 BB/9 in each of the last three years). Lynn shaved a full run off his ERA last year, yet his Fielding Independent Pitching numbers stayed in line with previous seasons thanks to steady rates of K’s, walks, and homers allowed (his FIP the last three years has been 3.35, 3.28, and 3.49).
Tyson Ross SD (@ LAD) – Ross draws a tough lineup in his first start this year, as the Dodgers’ lineup is blessed with an intriguing blend of power, speed, and balance from both sides of the plate. Ross has upped his slider frequency to dangerous levels (41.1% last season), but he has concurrently enjoyed an improving K rate, so it will be interesting to see if last September’s forearm woes scared the team enough to reel back his usage of the pitch. He handled the Dodgers last season to the tune of a 2.67 ERA and 29-to-8 ratio of K’s to walks across 27 frames, but that was a completely different lineup so Ross may have go back to the drawing board.
Mat Latos MIA (vs. ATL) – After spending half of the 2014 season on the shelf, Latos returned and had completely reinvented himself, sacrificing power in his delivery (and ticks on the radar gun) in favor of stability and pitch command. The end result was fewer strikeouts and walks but a bottom line that was vintage Latos. It will be interesting to see which version shows up for 2015, and he has the upside to return to the steady 8.0 K/9 that had been his norm. He gets a soft landing spot today, facing the light-hitting Braves in Marlins Park, a venue that plays well to right-handed batters (e.g. Giancarlo Stanton) but crushes left-handed power (e.g. Freddie Freeman).
Alex Wood ATL (@ MIA) – He has one of the funkiest deliveries in the game, throwing his bullets the way that Neo dodges them. A pitcher with such instability should struggle mightily with pitch command, but his walk rate (6.5% last season) is not a mirage, and Wood’s frequency of nailing his targets is a mystery wrapped in a riddle inside of an enigma. One wonders how long he can keep firing his magic bullets, and a key to success in today’s game will be to keep the ball out of reach for Giancarlo Stanton.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vogelsong | 0.346 | 3.90 | 0.301 | 4.08 | 0.250 | 0.679 | 0.294 | 3.85 | 0.25 | 95.56 | 19.4% |
| De La Rosa | 0.364 | 4.25 | 0.348 | 4.62 | 0.253 | 0.695 | 0.327 | 4.30 | 0.287 | 92.16 | 16.8% |
| Lynn | 0.314 | 2.98 | 0.284 | 2.57 | 0.233 | 0.671 | 0.290 | 3.35 | 0.235 | 104.55 | 20.9% |
| Arrieta | 0.251 | 2.18 | 0.234 | 2.81 | 0.252 | 0.679 | 0.274 | 2.26 | 0.2 | 96.64 | 27.2% |
| Lewis | 0.373 | 4.68 | 0.355 | 5.77 | 0.246 | 0.709 | 0.339 | 4.46 | 0.299 | 96.62 | 17.5% |
| Hahn | 0.291 | 4.14 | 0.278 | 1.98 | 0.249 | 0.663 | 0.270 | 3.40 | 0.211 | 84.29 | 22.9% |
| Chen | 0.298 | 3.20 | 0.326 | 3.65 | 0.249 | 0.693 | 0.296 | 3.89 | 0.263 | 96.03 | 17.6% |
| Karns | 0.257 | 0.732 | 0.148 | 5.72 | 0.163 | 102.50 | 26.5% | ||||
| Wilson | 0.266 | 3.99 | 0.345 | 4.70 | 0.240 | 0.636 | 0.306 | 4.31 | 0.254 | 100.26 | 19.8% |
| Paxton | 0.251 | 1.46 | 0.281 | 3.36 | 0.273 | 0.763 | 0.270 | 3.28 | 0.22 | 90.92 | 19.5% |
| Wood | 0.299 | 2.09 | 0.288 | 3.01 | 0.272 | 0.709 | 0.295 | 3.25 | 0.235 | 76.66 | 24.5% |
| Latos | 0.271 | 2.57 | 0.306 | 3.88 | 0.236 | 0.651 | 0.269 | 3.65 | 0.235 | 95.81 | 17.6% |
| Lyles | 0.372 | 3.39 | 0.290 | 5.21 | 0.254 | 0.708 | 0.295 | 4.22 | 0.258 | 95.45 | 16.5% |
| Garza | 0.285 | 3.27 | 0.289 | 3.93 | 0.276 | 0.763 | 0.268 | 3.54 | 0.228 | 94.00 | 18.5% |
| Ross | 0.289 | 2.92 | 0.286 | 2.70 | 0.271 | 0.746 | 0.291 | 3.24 | 0.226 | 100.61 | 24.0% |
| Greinke | 0.277 | 2.06 | 0.304 | 3.30 | 0.229 | 0.640 | 0.311 | 2.97 | 0.245 | 100.31 | 25.2% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
James Paxton SEA (vs. LAA) – Paxton was hit or miss last year, but his in-season improvement was an encouraging sign. He is a sneaky pick with the right matchups, but the Angels have a ton of firepower and Paxton may have to step between the rain drops in order to escape unscathed. Paxton was much more consistent last season than the numbers might indicate, especially when it came to allowing runs. He got shelled for eight earnies in his second-to-last start of the year, but he entered that game with a string of seven quality starts in his previous eight turns.
Jesse Hahn OAK (vs. TEX) – Hahn has a heavy fastball that led to his surrendering just two long balls in 163.3 innings in the minors, but therein lies the problem, as the 2010 draftee has logged just 267.7 innings as a professional. The long-term concern may not translate to the daily game, but his lack of a track record casts a big shadow of doubt as to the legitimacy of his curiously dominant numbers.
Wei-Yin Chen BAL (@ TB) – Tampa’s lineup looks extremely weak this year, and a control artist like Chen (career walk rate of 6.1% and on a downward trend) would peripherally seem like a safe play. However, Desmond Jennings (+116 points of OPS vs. LHP) and Evan Longoria (+99) are career lefty-hunters, and they could ruin the best laid plans of Mice and Chen.
C.J. Wilson LAA (@ SEA) – Wilson has an incredible mix of pitches, with six different clubs in his golf bag as well as the occasional knuckleball for when he’s feeling frisky. The southpaw takes Robinson Cano down a peg (-109 points of OPS vs, LHP), Kyle Seager down a peg and a half (-141 points), and Seth Smith off the reservation (-234 points), and his variable looks could very well get the best of right-handed free swingers Nelson Cruz and Mike Zunino.
Rubby De La Rosa AZ (vs. SF) – Rubby DLR has the raw stuff, but command is a giant hurdle for him to overcome. He gets the benefit of a Pence-less lineup for San Francisco and a downgraded opponent on the mound.
Nate Karns TB (vs. BAL) – A lack of experience combines with a packed lineup to stack the odds against Karns. Between Chris Davis and the reverse splits of Adam Jones and Manny Machado, Karns could be chum for the power bats in the Baltimore lineup, though his high K rates in the minor leagues (career 10.3 K/9) leave open the window of possibility that he has a big day.
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Colby Lewis TEX (@ OAK) – Only rain clouds can save him from a pummeling
Matt Garza MIL (vs. COL)
Jordan Lyles COL (@ MIL) – This is a great game to invest in offensively, but I’m not touching the pitchers
Ryan Vogelsong SF (@ AZ) – He’s a late replacement for the scratched Jake Peavy, a number five starter masquerading as a number two.
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window