Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 10th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrasco | CLE | NYY | 65 | 3.88 | 2.92 | 1.17 | 23.2% | 6.7% | 0.69 | 1.92 | |
| Kuroda | NYY | CLE | 142.2 | 3.97 | 3.85 | 1.20 | 45.0% | 16.4% | 4.5% | 1.01 | 1.45 |
| Price | DET | TOR | 179.1 | 3.11 | 2.62 | 1.04 | 52.4% | 27.5% | 3.2% | 1.10 | 1.07 |
| Buehrle | TOR | DET | 146 | 3.27 | 4.56 | 1.38 | 60.0% | 13.6% | 6.4% | 0.80 | 1.14 |
| Hand | MIA | CIN | 67 | 4.03 | 4.63 | 1.42 | 33.3% | 14.5% | 9.3% | 0.54 | 1.33 |
| Cueto | CIN | MIA | 171.2 | 2.04 | 3.04 | 0.91 | 76.2% | 25.7% | 6.7% | 0.68 | 1.58 |
| Ross | SDP | PIT | 154.2 | 2.62 | 3.11 | 1.18 | 66.7% | 24.7% | 8.5% | 0.58 | 2.56 |
| Morton | PIT | SDP | 144.1 | 3.43 | 3.81 | 1.23 | 50.0% | 18.5% | 8.4% | 0.56 | 2.32 |
| Lynn | STL | BAL | 140 | 2.89 | 3.84 | 1.28 | 60.0% | 21.2% | 8.9% | 0.45 | 1.41 |
| Gausman | BAL | STL | 62 | 3.77 | 4.60 | 1.37 | 37.5% | 15.3% | 8.8% | 0.44 | 1.24 |
| Wheeler | NYM | PHI | 134.1 | 3.48 | 3.60 | 1.35 | 55.0% | 22.8% | 9.7% | 0.67 | 1.96 |
| Kendrick | PHI | NYM | 144.1 | 4.74 | 4.41 | 1.33 | 30.0% | 14.2% | 6.2% | 1.06 | 1.28 |
| Kershaw | LAD | MIL | 128.1 | 1.82 | 1.91 | 0.85 | 66.7% | 32.5% | 3.5% | 0.42 | 2.07 |
| Nelson | MIL | LAD | 30 | 4.20 | 3.59 | 1.23 | 20.5% | 6.8% | 0.90 | 1.62 | |
| Martinez | TEX | HOU | 83 | 5.31 | 5.70 | 1.65 | 27.3% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 1.52 | 0.71 |
| Keuchel | HOU | TEX | 143.1 | 2.89 | 3.16 | 1.21 | 50.0% | 18.6% | 5.8% | 0.50 | 3.01 |
| Lincecum | SFG | KCR | 134.1 | 4.22 | 3.72 | 1.30 | 40.0% | 21.9% | 9.0% | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Duffy | KCR | SFG | 109 | 2.39 | 4.27 | 1.10 | 57.1% | 19.7% | 9.3% | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| Cobb | TBR | CHC | 102.1 | 3.52 | 3.29 | 1.20 | 42.9% | 22.3% | 7.4% | 0.79 | 2.09 |
| Wood | CHC | TBR | 133 | 5.08 | 4.43 | 1.54 | 30.0% | 18.3% | 9.7% | 0.88 | 0.92 |
| De La Rosa | BOS | LAA | 60.1 | 3.43 | 4.25 | 1.31 | 57.1% | 15.9% | 7.6% | 1.04 | 1.53 |
| Santiago | LAA | BOS | 84.1 | 3.84 | 4.25 | 1.27 | 16.7% | 20.5% | 9.2% | 0.96 | 0.62 |
| Hughes | MIN | OAK | 143.2 | 4.01 | 3.26 | 1.25 | 45.0% | 21.4% | 2.4% | 0.69 | 0.96 |
| Hammel | OAK | MIN | 131.1 | 3.70 | 3.61 | 1.20 | 47.4% | 21.9% | 6.9% | 1.03 | 1.12 |
| Morales | COL | ARI | 106.1 | 5.08 | 4.69 | 1.59 | 15.4% | 15.3% | 10.3% | 1.69 | 1.35 |
| Miley | ARI | COL | 150.1 | 4.61 | 3.59 | 1.32 | 33.3% | 21.3% | 7.7% | 1.20 | 1.70 |
| Danks | CWS | SEA | 140.2 | 4.93 | 4.63 | 1.47 | 50.0% | 15.8% | 8.8% | 1.47 | 0.96 |
| Ramirez | SEA | CWS | 60 | 4.35 | 4.53 | 1.52 | 27.3% | 19.5% | 11.6% | 1.50 | 0.96 |
| Gonzalez | WAS | ATL | 103.1 | 4.01 | 3.61 | 1.27 | 46.7% | 24.5% | 9.5% | 0.52 | 1.19 |
| Wood | ATL | WAS | 109.2 | 3.20 | 3.30 | 1.24 | 58.3% | 23.6% | 6.6% | 0.90 | 1.25 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Clayton Kershaw LAD (at MIL) – I honestly don’t need to explain to you how good Clayton Kershaw really is. He is now 13-2 with a 1.82 ERA and 157 strikeouts in 128 1/3 innings pitched. Today he will be facing the Milwaukee Brewers who are in the bottom 5 in K% vLHP and the bottom half in wOBA vLHP. The real question with Kershaw is whether or not his salary is too high on the site you play on.
Johnny Cueto CIN (v. MIA) – If not for Kershaw we would be talking about how great of a season Johnny Cueto is having. The Reds ace now sits at 13-6 on the season with a 2.04 ERA and .91 WHIP. Even more impressive is his 3-0 record in 4 starts since the All-Star break with 31 strikeouts in 28 innings pitched and holding opponents to a .189 batting average. Today he will face the Marlins who rank dead last in K% vRHP.
David Price DET (at TOR) – Price was very good in his first start as a Tiger going 8 2/3 innings with 10 strikeouts while allowing 3 runs. Today he will be on the mound against the Toronto Blue Jays who he threw a complete game shutout against back on July 13th striking out 5 in the process. Price has always had the K upside and now stands to gain some fantasy points from added wins with a better offense in the Tigers.
Alex Cobb TBR (at CHC) – Cobb struggled with his command in Oakland his last start and I like him for a huge bounce back game here against the Cubs. Look for him to continue much of what Jake Odorizzi was able to do with this offense that ranks at or near the bottom in many of the offensive categories vRHP. Cobb is 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA since the All-Star break and has struck out just over 1 batter per inning in that span.
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.
Tyson Ross SDP (at PIT) – Ross has not allowed more than 2 earned runs in each of his last 9 starts. Today he will be in Pittsburgh to take on the Pirates who are a tough challenge and are the main reason he is not in the gold buys today. Since the break he is 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA and 31 strikeouts in 25 innings pitched while holding opponents to a .205 batting average.
Danny Duffy KCR (v. SFG) – Duffy is quietly having a really nice season for the Royals this season despite his 6-10 record. He has a 2.39 ERA and has held opponents to a .202 batting average on the year. Even more impressive is his 1.11 ERA in 4 starts since the All-Star break and a slight uptick in strikeouts. The Giants rank in the bottom 10 teams in K% vLHP making this an intriguing matchup today.
Dallas Keuchel HOU (v. TEX) – This is a little bit of a tricky matchup with a Rangers team that on the surface looks horrible but in actuality has been pretty good vLHP. Keuchel is 10-7 on the year with a 2.89 ERA and while his ERA is sub 3 at home he only has 3 wins in 9 starts. He is another example of a pitcher doing his job but not seeing the rewards for his hard work. If you play on a site that offers a heavy win bonus just beware that he isn’t getting a lot of help on the year but they are facing Nick Martinez.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Alex Wood ATL (v. WAS) – Wood has a 2.63 ERA in 4 starts since the break and has struck out 25 batter over 24 innings pitched in that time frame. The Nationals rank near the middle in just about every major category vLHP which sets up nice for the young southpaw who appears to be coming into his own right before our eyes. I don’t expect him to hold a very high ownership with all of the solid options on the board and could provide a good value both in price and ownership %.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
Nick Martinez TEX (at HOU)
Rubby De La Rosa BOS (at LAA)
John Danks CWS (at SEA)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrasco | 0.309 | 3.94 | 0.269 | 3.82 | 0.247 | 0.692 | 0.296 | 3.20 | 0.236 | 33.60 | 23.2% |
| Kuroda | 0.310 | 4.22 | 0.308 | 3.68 | 0.262 | 0.749 | 0.284 | 3.90 | 0.255 | 98.26 | 16.4% |
| Price | 0.307 | 3.74 | 0.280 | 2.91 | 0.246 | 0.705 | 0.300 | 2.98 | 0.236 | 111.50 | 27.5% |
| Buehrle | 0.337 | 2.54 | 0.332 | 3.53 | 0.284 | 0.792 | 0.308 | 3.99 | 0.279 | 99.57 | 13.6% |
| Hand | 0.289 | 5.49 | 0.334 | 3.42 | 0.246 | 0.690 | 0.295 | 3.87 | 0.259 | 47.65 | 14.5% |
| Cueto | 0.244 | 1.84 | 0.243 | 2.23 | 0.246 | 0.690 | 0.228 | 3.06 | 0.18 | 108.00 | 25.7% |
| Ross | 0.274 | 2.84 | 0.289 | 2.39 | 0.260 | 0.740 | 0.288 | 3.07 | 0.222 | 101.00 | 24.7% |
| Morton | 0.290 | 2.78 | 0.317 | 4.07 | 0.226 | 0.635 | 0.283 | 3.83 | 0.236 | 98.30 | 18.5% |
| Lynn | 0.303 | 2.52 | 0.287 | 3.18 | 0.256 | 0.717 | 0.292 | 3.22 | 0.233 | 104.48 | 21.2% |
| Gausman | 0.334 | 2.75 | 0.283 | 5.19 | 0.250 | 0.678 | 0.304 | 3.64 | 0.262 | 97.45 | 15.3% |
| Wheeler | 0.363 | 4.71 | 0.267 | 2.57 | 0.240 | 0.658 | 0.314 | 3.53 | 0.248 | 101.57 | 22.8% |
| Kendrick | 0.373 | 6.11 | 0.297 | 3.87 | 0.235 | 0.670 | 0.287 | 4.41 | 0.264 | 98.43 | 14.2% |
| Kershaw | 0.169 | 0.33 | 0.251 | 2.24 | 0.243 | 0.704 | 0.285 | 1.72 | 0.198 | 99.06 | 32.5% |
| Nelson | 0.332 | 5.63 | 0.301 | 2.57 | 0.265 | 0.737 | 0.284 | 4.04 | 0.237 | 96.20 | 20.5% |
| Martinez | 0.397 | 4.70 | 0.359 | 6.00 | 0.228 | 0.666 | 0.300 | 5.79 | 0.296 | 75.89 | 10.2% |
| Keuchel | 0.294 | 2.48 | 0.304 | 3.03 | 0.274 | 0.756 | 0.308 | 3.19 | 0.256 | 103.10 | 18.6% |
| Lincecum | 0.308 | 3.92 | 0.331 | 4.48 | 0.263 | 0.686 | 0.289 | 3.93 | 0.24 | 94.92 | 21.9% |
| Duffy | 0.184 | 1.13 | 0.292 | 2.75 | 0.248 | 0.702 | 0.233 | 3.85 | 0.199 | 77.26 | 19.7% |
| Cobb | 0.274 | 3.68 | 0.314 | 3.35 | 0.232 | 0.666 | 0.288 | 3.58 | 0.233 | 94.47 | 22.3% |
| Wood | 0.272 | 4.05 | 0.370 | 5.52 | 0.266 | 0.747 | 0.324 | 4.20 | 0.274 | 99.87 | 18.3% |
| De La Rosa | 0.355 | 4.04 | 0.311 | 2.55 | 0.256 | 0.721 | 0.288 | 4.32 | 0.26 | 99.80 | 15.9% |
| Santiago | 0.269 | 2.49 | 0.306 | 4.42 | 0.251 | 0.707 | 0.272 | 4.08 | 0.231 | 74.65 | 20.5% |
| Hughes | 0.284 | 3.01 | 0.347 | 5.09 | 0.254 | 0.732 | 0.349 | 2.68 | 0.285 | 94.78 | 21.4% |
| Hammel | 0.316 | 3.15 | 0.301 | 4.09 | 0.246 | 0.701 | 0.290 | 3.79 | 0.243 | 97.00 | 21.9% |
| Morales | 0.308 | 5.28 | 0.403 | 5.00 | 0.261 | 0.709 | 0.302 | 5.73 | 0.283 | 68.27 | 15.3% |
| Miley | 0.333 | 5.52 | 0.325 | 4.37 | 0.281 | 0.796 | 0.302 | 4.12 | 0.256 | 98.83 | 21.3% |
| Danks | 0.326 | 3.63 | 0.370 | 5.35 | 0.245 | 0.637 | 0.293 | 5.20 | 0.27 | 104.65 | 15.8% |
| Ramirez | 0.330 | 4.21 | 0.378 | 4.56 | 0.260 | 0.735 | 0.292 | 5.27 | 0.258 | 87.42 | 19.5% |
| Gonzalez | 0.309 | 6.33 | 0.299 | 3.40 | 0.259 | 0.734 | 0.303 | 3.09 | 0.231 | 96.56 | 24.5% |
| Wood | 0.310 | 2.25 | 0.304 | 3.59 | 0.273 | 0.729 | 0.314 | 3.39 | 0.252 | 66.88 | 23.6% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window
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