Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 11th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niese | NYM | PHI | 128.1 | 3.51 | 3.96 | 1.28 | 41.2% | 16.6% | 6.3% | 0.77 | 1.64 |
| Buchanan | PHI | NYM | 65.2 | 4.39 | 4.13 | 1.29 | 20.0% | 15.7% | 6.1% | 1.23 | 1.44 |
| Capuano | NYY | BAL | 50.2 | 3.91 | 3.78 | 1.42 | 20.4% | 8.9% | 0.53 | 1.20 | |
| Norris | BAL | NYY | 115 | 3.68 | 4.17 | 1.26 | 26.7% | 17.9% | 7.7% | 1.02 | 1.17 |
| Verlander | DET | PIT | 157.2 | 4.57 | 4.36 | 1.40 | 35.0% | 16.8% | 7.8% | 0.91 | 1.02 |
| Locke | PIT | DET | 81 | 3.78 | 3.66 | 1.16 | 66.7% | 17.0% | 3.9% | 1.22 | 1.61 |
| Correia | LAD | ATL | 129.1 | 4.94 | 4.91 | 1.46 | 45.0% | 10.7% | 5.6% | 0.90 | 1.05 |
| Teheran | ATL | LAD | 163.1 | 2.92 | 3.49 | 1.07 | 70.0% | 22.3% | 5.5% | 0.99 | 0.85 |
| Miller | STL | MIA | 128.2 | 3.99 | 4.84 | 1.35 | 21.1% | 15.6% | 10.3% | 1.05 | 0.99 |
| Koehler | MIA | STL | 137.1 | 3.80 | 4.30 | 1.23 | 52.6% | 18.1% | 8.9% | 0.72 | 1.13 |
| Gallardo | MIL | CHC | 139.2 | 3.54 | 3.66 | 1.25 | 50.0% | 18.6% | 6.7% | 0.97 | 1.88 |
| Arrieta | CHC | MIL | 103 | 2.80 | 2.97 | 1.07 | 50.0% | 26.3% | 6.8% | 0.26 | 1.62 |
| Smyly | TBR | TEX | 110.2 | 3.98 | 3.86 | 1.36 | 50.0% | 20.3% | 7.0% | 1.14 | 0.91 |
| Lewis | TEX | TBR | 111.1 | 5.50 | 4.22 | 1.65 | 11.8% | 17.9% | 6.9% | 1.05 | 0.79 |
| Milone | MIN | HOU | 96.1 | 3.55 | 4.47 | 1.21 | 43.8% | 15.1% | 6.4% | 1.12 | 0.92 |
| Peacock | HOU | MIN | 92.2 | 5.44 | 4.62 | 1.62 | 28.6% | 19.5% | 12.5% | 1.36 | 0.97 |
| Gray | OAK | KCR | 150.1 | 2.87 | 3.59 | 1.20 | 60.0% | 20.9% | 8.5% | 0.54 | 2.12 |
| Ventura | KCR | OAK | 127 | 3.47 | 3.70 | 1.31 | 44.4% | 20.2% | 7.3% | 0.92 | 1.58 |
| Hutchison | TOR | SEA | 131.1 | 4.39 | 3.86 | 1.28 | 31.6% | 21.3% | 7.5% | 1.03 | 0.80 |
| Hernandez | SEA | TOR | 173.1 | 1.97 | 2.42 | 0.88 | 81.0% | 28.1% | 4.8% | 0.31 | 2.15 |
| Lyles | COL | SDP | 75 | 3.72 | 4.03 | 1.29 | 58.3% | 17.1% | 8.5% | 0.72 | 2.15 |
| Hahn | SDP | COL | 59.1 | 2.28 | 3.58 | 1.06 | 57.1% | 24.1% | 10.6% | 0.46 | 2.08 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Felix Hernandez SEA (v. TOR) – Stranger things have happened, but this is ripe for a MASSIVE outing for Hernandez. First off, he’s amazing, but now he gets a Toronto team that just went six hours and 37 minutes to finish off the Tigers for a series win. At least they got the win, but they are at least three hours behind schedule and they are facing baseball’s best right-hander.
Julio Teheran ATL (v. LAD) – Every time Teheran has been popped this year (and it’s been pretty darn rare), he’s bounced back nicely. The Mariners (of all teams) got to him for six in six, but I trust him to get back on track, especially as he returns home where he has a 1.48 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 79 IP. He gets a Dodgers club that he ripped for an 8 IP/2 ER gem in LA back on July 31st.
Jake Arrieta CHC (v. MIL) – The destruction of Arrieta in Coors doesn’t really bother me that much. That’s just an occupational hazard for someone with road games in Coors on their schedule. The 9 ER he allowed account for 28% of his total earned runs this season, giving you an idea of just how great he has been in his other 16 starts. This is his first jaunt against his divisional foes and I think his .507 OPS against righties will play well against the righty-heavy lineup that the Brewers regularly churn out.
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.
Sonny Gray OAK (at KC) – Gray was one of the hottest arms in baseball heading into his last outing before getting smashed to the tune of 4.3 IP/6 ER against Tampa Bay. Now he gets a white-hot Royals club, but I just don’t see them as a fearful offense even in the midst of this hot streak. Plus, Gray just handled them on August 1st with a 7 IP/1 ER gem that included seven strikeouts (though he did take the loss there). We could see a pitcher’s duel between Gray and Ventura, so don’t go banking on a win with either starter.
Jesse Hahn SD (v. COL) – Hahn struggled his last time, for the first time since his MLB debut, posting a 1.44 ERA in the eight starts in between. I’m a little worried that the Padres might artificially cap his outings the rest of the way to maybe squeeze an extra one or two out on the backend. This could manifest itself in some solid 5 IP outings which would be fine if he wasn’t priced at the level of a stud. I still fully back him here, but let’s keep an eye out to see if any of that inning management is going on and could affect his future outings. He only went 5.7 IP his last time out because he wasn’t throwing too well (eight baserunners, 92 pitches).
Yovani Gallardo MIL (at CHC) – Gallardo had a huge April with a 1.91 ERA in six and while he hasn’t really been near that level since with a 4.15 ERA from May 1st on, he’s had some spells of greatness. He’s been markedly better on the road with a 2.90 ERA in 62 IP and he gets a paltry Cubs offense to exploit in hopes of maintaining his excellent road work.
Justin Verlander DET (at PIT) – I’m really on the fence about JV in this spot because I could definitely see him getting pushed an extra inning to account for the 19-inning, bullpen-wasting marathon from Sunday and end up get a run or two tacked onto his ledger. If he’s already at 6 IP/2 ER, that extra run or two could spoil a solid outing. He does have four straight quality starts with a 3.14 ERA in 28.7 IP with a 2.7 K:BB ratio.
Yordano Ventura KC (v. OAK) – I was having a hard time backing Ventura fully of late because the strikeouts just weren’t coming through the way there were earlier in the season, but he’s fanned at least seven in each of his last three, posting a 2.79 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 22 Ks in 19.3 IP. Of course, he gets the league’s best team in the midst of this hot stretch so while I’m glad to see the strikeouts are back and him pitching well, I’m not exactly dying to use him against Oakland. The flamethrower will have to be careful with his electric heat. His 1240 pitches of 95+ MPH are the third-highest total in the league, but the A’s crush that stuff to the tune of an MLB-best .816 OPS against heaters at 95 or better. This is probably more of a bronze recommendation. I like him long-term, but I wouldn’t necessarily seek him out as a pitching option on Monday.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Bud Norris BAL (v. NYY) – Norris has a 2.64 ERA in his last eight starts even with 4 IP/5 ER and 5 IP/4 ER duds in the mix. He’s missing more bats (7.7 K9, up from 6.0 K9 in first 11 starts) and holding a solid 2.7 K:BB ratio in 47.7 IP of work. Additionally, he has a 2.61 ERA in eight home starts.
Jeff Locke PIT (v. DET) – Similar to Felix (the only time you’ll see that line in a write up about Locke), he gets a team that was run ragged on Sunday with a 19-inning marathon. Of course, the Tigers aren’t traveling quite as far from Toronto to Pittsburgh and they get Locke, not Felix freakin Hernandez. The 26-year old lefty has been solid this year, but homers have burnt of late. He’s allowed eight in his last four starts, yielding a 5.76 ERA. Maybe a spent Tigers team will be easier to keep in the park.
Colby Lewis TEX (v. TB) – Since that horrendous 2.3 IP/11 ER shellacking, Lewis has a 2.30 ERA in 27.3 IP over four starts, including a shutout at the White Sox his last time out. Tampa Bay’s offense has jumped back in the tank the last couple of weeks with a .642 OPS against righties (21st in the league).
Chris Capuano NYY (at BAL) – It’s three starts so let’s not get too crazy here, but it’s hard to just completely ignore his 2.84 ERA, 17 Ks, and 3.4 K:BB ratio in 19 IP. The 1.21 WHIP is a little high, but a lot of that is from the four walks in his first start with the Yankees.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
Tommy Milone MIN (at HOU) – The Astros have smashed lefties this year and Milone has been a home-only kind of pitcher for the bulk of his career. He’s the only one I’m outwardly avoiding today. I’m not really interested in Shelby Miller, Tom Koehler, Jordan Lyles, or Kevin Correia, but I’m not super-stacking against of them, either.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niese | 0.301 | 4.26 | 0.322 | 3.26 | 0.245 | 0.691 | 0.298 | 3.79 | 0.259 | 91.33 | 16.6% |
| Buchanan | 0.274 | 2.81 | 0.365 | 5.40 | 0.235 | 0.670 | 0.285 | 4.54 | 0.262 | 93.91 | 15.7% |
| Capuano | 0.366 | 5.30 | 0.290 | 3.09 | 0.258 | 0.736 | 0.316 | 3.39 | 0.255 | 27.42 | 20.4% |
| Norris | 0.321 | 3.62 | 0.324 | 3.74 | 0.247 | 0.692 | 0.284 | 4.36 | 0.249 | 99.58 | 17.9% |
| Verlander | 0.303 | 3.26 | 0.372 | 6.50 | 0.260 | 0.740 | 0.304 | 4.08 | 0.266 | 108.83 | 16.8% |
| Locke | 0.223 | 3.38 | 0.332 | 3.90 | 0.284 | 0.792 | 0.282 | 4.08 | 0.257 | 94.50 | 17.0% |
| Correia | 0.341 | 4.19 | 0.349 | 5.79 | 0.241 | 0.663 | 0.312 | 4.36 | 0.293 | 92.26 | 10.7% |
| Teheran | 0.298 | 3.39 | 0.265 | 2.44 | 0.265 | 0.737 | 0.268 | 3.50 | 0.226 | 100.17 | 22.3% |
| Miller | 0.333 | 4.81 | 0.310 | 3.31 | 0.246 | 0.690 | 0.265 | 4.68 | 0.242 | 88.35 | 15.6% |
| Koehler | 0.269 | 2.96 | 0.324 | 4.68 | 0.250 | 0.678 | 0.266 | 3.93 | 0.228 | 91.48 | 18.1% |
| Gallardo | 0.284 | 2.51 | 0.319 | 4.35 | 0.232 | 0.666 | 0.289 | 3.90 | 0.25 | 100.48 | 18.6% |
| Arrieta | 0.277 | 2.79 | 0.230 | 2.80 | 0.259 | 0.730 | 0.289 | 2.25 | 0.213 | 95.65 | 26.3% |
| Smyly | 0.214 | 2.78 | 0.385 | 4.56 | 0.274 | 0.756 | 0.319 | 3.99 | 0.271 | 90.27 | 20.3% |
| Lewis | 0.411 | 6.02 | 0.329 | 4.92 | 0.252 | 0.699 | 0.373 | 4.10 | 0.318 | 95.55 | 17.9% |
| Milone | 0.334 | 3.50 | 0.305 | 3.56 | 0.265 | 0.750 | 0.262 | 4.43 | 0.243 | 93.38 | 15.1% |
| Peacock | 0.341 | 4.97 | 0.379 | 6.00 | 0.246 | 0.701 | 0.315 | 5.10 | 0.271 | 81.35 | 19.5% |
| Gray | 0.283 | 2.61 | 0.275 | 3.23 | 0.263 | 0.686 | 0.278 | 3.33 | 0.225 | 101.00 | 20.9% |
| Ventura | 0.313 | 2.99 | 0.314 | 4.18 | 0.254 | 0.732 | 0.300 | 3.73 | 0.252 | 93.41 | 20.2% |
| Hutchison | 0.344 | 5.78 | 0.284 | 2.72 | 0.243 | 0.687 | 0.293 | 3.88 | 0.246 | 94.35 | 21.3% |
| Hernandez | 0.227 | 1.19 | 0.231 | 3.00 | 0.271 | 0.778 | 0.262 | 2.05 | 0.191 | 102.83 | 28.1% |
| Lyles | 0.346 | 3.86 | 0.288 | 3.58 | 0.226 | 0.635 | 0.283 | 3.94 | 0.245 | 93.77 | 17.1% |
| Hahn | 0.229 | 2.84 | 0.278 | 1.63 | 0.279 | 0.768 | 0.233 | 3.24 | 0.181 | 92.20 | 24.1% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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