Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 12th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greene | NYY | BAL | 29.1 | 3.68 | 3.65 | 1.26 | 100.0% | 19.1% | 7.9% | 0.92 | 2.27 |
| Chen | BAL | NYY | 129.1 | 3.90 | 3.81 | 1.27 | 31.6% | 17.7% | 4.2% | 1.32 | 1.13 |
| Collmenter | ARI | CLE | 125.1 | 4.09 | 4.32 | 1.28 | 29.4% | 15.9% | 6.3% | 1.08 | 0.93 |
| House | CLE | ARI | 55 | 4.09 | 3.40 | 1.51 | 25.0% | 16.1% | 6.6% | 1.15 | 3.42 |
| Ray | DET | PIT | 15.1 | 4.70 | 4.95 | 1.63 | 33.3% | 13.4% | 9.0% | 0.59 | 0.95 |
| Volquez | PIT | DET | 126.2 | 3.91 | 4.44 | 1.31 | 50.0% | 15.3% | 8.5% | 0.99 | 1.48 |
| Haren | LAD | ATL | 134 | 4.57 | 3.87 | 1.29 | 30.0% | 17.3% | 4.9% | 1.48 | 1.27 |
| Minor | ATL | LAD | 98 | 5.42 | 3.86 | 1.59 | 50.0% | 19.6% | 6.5% | 1.65 | 1.06 |
| Kelly | BOS | CIN | 42 | 3.86 | 3.99 | 1.38 | 40.0% | 14.8% | 7.7% | 0.64 | 2.57 |
| Latos | CIN | BOS | 66.1 | 3.12 | 4.39 | 0.95 | 66.7% | 16.0% | 6.5% | 0.54 | 0.84 |
| Wainwright | STL | MIA | 155 | 2.26 | 3.55 | 1.01 | 84.2% | 20.8% | 6.1% | 0.29 | 1.42 |
| Cosart | MIA | STL | 121.2 | 4.51 | 4.40 | 1.45 | 31.6% | 14.7% | 10.0% | 0.52 | 2.26 |
| Fister | WAS | NYM | 104.2 | 2.49 | 3.77 | 1.07 | 58.3% | 15.7% | 3.1% | 0.95 | 1.45 |
| Montero | NYM | WAS | 20 | 5.40 | 4.79 | 1.60 | 25.0% | 18.5% | 12.0% | 2.25 | 0.74 |
| Hellickson | TBR | TEX | 20.2 | 2.61 | 4.74 | 1.16 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 1.31 | 0.47 | |
| Tepesch | TEX | TBR | 72.2 | 4.46 | 4.89 | 1.38 | 27.3% | 12.6% | 7.8% | 1.36 | 1.07 |
| Peralta | MIL | CHC | 138 | 3.52 | 3.81 | 1.28 | 47.4% | 17.1% | 6.9% | 1.17 | 2.01 |
| Hendricks | CHC | MIL | 26.1 | 2.05 | 3.72 | 1.06 | 16.5% | 6.8% | 0.68 | 2.47 | |
| Pino | MIN | HOU | 45.1 | 4.57 | 4.10 | 1.26 | 40.0% | 18.5% | 5.3% | 0.79 | 0.62 |
| McHugh | HOU | MIN | 95 | 3.32 | 3.25 | 1.11 | 42.9% | 27.4% | 9.0% | 0.95 | 1.08 |
| Lester | OAK | KCR | 149.2 | 2.59 | 3.08 | 1.14 | 65.0% | 25.0% | 5.4% | 0.54 | 1.20 |
| Guthrie | KCR | OAK | 138 | 4.50 | 4.41 | 1.36 | 42.1% | 15.1% | 6.6% | 1.24 | 1.09 |
| Williams | PHI | LAA | 57.2 | 6.71 | 3.87 | 1.66 | 16.5% | 7.1% | 1.09 | 1.43 | |
| Wilson | LAA | PHI | 117.2 | 4.74 | 3.81 | 1.39 | 42.1% | 21.7% | 9.9% | 1.15 | 1.80 |
| Happ | TOR | SEA | 95.1 | 4.34 | 4.30 | 1.45 | 30.8% | 18.6% | 9.2% | 1.04 | 0.99 |
| Young | SEA | TOR | 134.2 | 3.27 | 5.19 | 1.14 | 47.4% | 15.5% | 8.0% | 1.27 | 0.40 |
| Flande | COL | SDP | 28.1 | 5.72 | 3.83 | 1.34 | 14.4% | 6.8% | 0.32 | 2.68 | |
| Despaigne | SDP | COL | 49.1 | 3.10 | 4.85 | 1.28 | 100.0% | 13.4% | 9.6% | 0.55 | 1.46 |
| Sale | CWS | SFG | 122 | 2.14 | 2.56 | 0.89 | 64.3% | 29.3% | 4.7% | 0.52 | 1.14 |
| Vogelsong | SFG | CWS | 133.2 | 3.64 | 3.88 | 1.28 | 52.6% | 19.3% | 6.2% | 0.67 | 0.99 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
GOLD BUYS: These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Chris Sale CWS (at SF)/*Jon Lester OAK* (at KC)/*Adam Wainwright STL* (at MIA) – Today’s superstuds are all going to cost you, but they’ve been among the three most consistent arms all season. Wainwright is checking in as the cheapest of the bunch at the bigger sites which makes him the most appealing almost by default, especially at DraftKings where he is $3,000 less than Sale.
Mat Latos CIN (v. BOS) – He has a strong 3.12 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, but the component numbers have lagged a bit thanks to an uninspiring 5.7 K9 rate. His 2.3 BB9 rate is actually a career-best, giving him a passable 2.5 K:BB ratio. I still think we’ll see a strikeout surge before year’s end. He gets an offense that has been baseball’s second-worst in OPS against righties since the All-Star break at .608. Of course, the only team below them is Latos’ own Reds at .575, so runs could be at a premium tonight in Cincy, but I’m still betting on a strong effort from Latos.
J.A. Happ TOR (at SEA) – Happ, for reasons that I’m sure are obvious, is usually found in the Value Plays if he’s listed favorably at all, but I love him as a dirt-cheap potential stud tonight. He has a 3.13 ERA in his last eight (7 GS, 1 relief app.) and a 1.71 in his last four, including a 12-K masterpiece against Baltimore his last time out. We’ve seen flashes from Happ throughout his eight years in the majors so this surge isn’t necessarily a surprise and I’m willing to ride the wave, especially tonight as he’s facing baseball’s second-worst team v. lefties (.645, ahead of only SD).
Wily Peralta MIL (at CHC) – The Phillies of all teams dumped Peralta for 9 ER back on July 8th and pushed his ERA to its season-high level of 3.95 (a 0.60 gain in that outing alone). He has rebounded from that wreckage with a five-win roll that has seen him post a 1.64 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 33 IP. His strikeout numbers have underwhelmed, especially given the raw stuff (which is excellent), at just 6.7 K9, but he has flashes of brilliance including his 9-K effort last time out. There are some individual Cubs hitters worth fearing, but as a whole they are still a team to pick on.
Doug Fister WAS (at NYM) – He gets the Mets for a second straight outing after crushing them back on August 6th (7.3 IP/0 ER, 1 unearned run) and notching his 11th win of the season. He had a very impressive 7/0 K:BB ratio in that game and in fact he’s enjoyed a strikeout uptick in his last three with a solid 7.2 K9 rate. That may not sound like too much, but it’s a marked improvement over the 5.3 K9 he had in 13 starts before this mini-run.
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.
Collin McHugh HOU (v. MIN) – I just continue to be impressed by McHugh. I didn’t know he had this in him, especially with the strikeouts, but that curveball is filthy. In two starts since returning from the DL with a finger injury, he has allowed just 2 ER in 13.3 IP with 13 Ks and just one walk. Working against McHugh is that he’s been worse at home with a 4.36 ERA, but his 3.64 xFIP suggests he hasn’t been quite that bad. He also gets a plucky Twins offense, granted they just traded away a big power bat in Josh Willingham. These two factors pushed him from the gold tier, though. I think the strikeouts will still be there, but it could be more of a 6 IP/3 ER effort than a 7 IP/1 ER. The strikeouts can sustain the value, though, just as they did when Miami hit him for 6.3 IP/4 ER while also fanning nine times.
Shane Greene NYY (at BAL) – Be careful with the weather anywhere on the east coast, but if the rain stays away then Greene is a worthwhile pickup. He has come out of nowhere to give the Yankees a jolt and after finally get a full game to really watch him, I’m here to tell you the stuff is legit. Everything has some wiggle to it. He destroyed the Tigers for eight scoreless last week, allowing just five hits and walking three against a really tough offense (on the whole… not so much of late). He already has 7.3 shutout innings against Baltimore this year which included a season-high nine strikeouts. He’s far from flawless as evidenced by the three modest outings between the Baltimore and Detroit starts, but the price is still low enough everywhere that he’s worth the gamble even with the downside of 5 IP/3 ER (which is essentially what he averaged in those three starts).
Ryan Vogelsong SF (v. CWS) – There isn’t a lot of next-level analysis for this one. Vogelsong has pitched well on the whole this year and he’s been particularly sharp in his pitcher-friendly home ballpark with a 3.28 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 5.0 K:BB ratio (which includes a healthy 7.9 K9).
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Joe Kelly BOS (at CIN) – Kelly has been up and down this year, but with only eight starts under his belt that isn’t saying too much. In fact, it’s been five good and three bad so we’re really dealing with small samples. Kelly was exemplary bouncing from rotation to bullpen in his first two years and he’s always had impressive stuff when you watch him, but that hasn’t translated into domination of hitters, He has just a 6.0 K9 rate for his career, but he uses and elite groundball rate to pile up the outs. As I mentioned earlier, the only team worse against righties since the break than Kelly’s Sox are the Reds with a .575 OPS. Their 23% strikeout rate has been the fourth-highest, too, so we could see Kelly top five punchouts for the first time this season.
Kyle Hendricks CHC (v. MIL) – He’s looked every bit like a solid prospect since his arrival. The Reds got to him for four earned runs in his MLB debut, but he’s allowed just four more earned runs in his last four starts combined, giving him an incredible 2.10 ERA in 34.3 IP of work. His two August starts have been particularly impressive, as he’s gone into LA (Dodgers) and Colorado and emerged with a 1.80 ERA in 15 innings. Sure the Rockies aren’t exactly whole right now, but you can’t knock an 8 IP/2 ER gem in Coors. The right-hander has dominated righties to the tune of a .197 AVG and .534 OPS so far. He gets a near lefty-less club in the Brewers on Tuesday night (he could see up to three, but only one of them, Scooter Gennett, is really any good).
Jeremy Hellickson TB (at TEX) – After building himself up a bit, Hellickson finally eclipsed five innings for the first time in four starts. He 7 IP/1 ER in Oakland on 99 pitches and while he heads to a tougher venue, it’s an easier opponent without a doubt. The Rangers have a .682 OPS on the season against righties and it’s down to .665 since the break. His strikeout rate is just a modest 6.1 K9, but his 2.2 BB9 is his best since his 36.3 IP debut back in 2010.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Dan Haren LAD (at ATL)
- Josh Collmenter ARI (at CLE)
- Rafael Montero NYM (v. WAS)
- Robbie Ray DET (at PIT)
- Odrisamer Despaigne SD (v. COL)
- Jerome Williams PHI (at LAA)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greene | 0.320 | 3.18 | 0.262 | 4.38 | 0.256 | 0.717 | 0.276 | 4.06 | 0.237 | 85.33 | 19.1% |
| Chen | 0.331 | 3.82 | 0.334 | 3.92 | 0.264 | 0.721 | 0.304 | 4.17 | 0.273 | 96.55 | 17.7% |
| Collmenter | 0.353 | 3.88 | 0.297 | 4.28 | 0.262 | 0.749 | 0.288 | 4.18 | 0.261 | 78.48 | 15.9% |
| House | 0.291 | 4.19 | 0.388 | 4.04 | 0.261 | 0.709 | 0.337 | 4.41 | 0.299 | 82.09 | 16.1% |
| Ray | 0.368 | 3.86 | 0.245 | 0.667 | 0.353 | 3.99 | 0.311 | 70.25 | 13.4% | ||
| Volquez | 0.330 | 4.47 | 0.311 | 3.48 | 0.271 | 0.747 | 0.271 | 4.52 | 0.246 | 90.32 | 15.3% |
| Haren | 0.318 | 3.97 | 0.351 | 5.14 | 0.241 | 0.663 | 0.292 | 4.47 | 0.268 | 98.83 | 17.3% |
| Minor | 0.428 | 6.98 | 0.369 | 5.03 | 0.230 | 0.676 | 0.354 | 4.70 | 0.308 | 99.41 | 19.6% |
| Kelly | 0.350 | 4.15 | 0.296 | 3.54 | 0.243 | 0.674 | 0.301 | 4.00 | 0.265 | 87.38 | 14.8% |
| Latos | 0.215 | 2.06 | 0.278 | 4.31 | 0.243 | 0.685 | 0.213 | 3.52 | 0.189 | 95.90 | 16.0% |
| Wainwright | 0.275 | 2.19 | 0.237 | 2.32 | 0.246 | 0.690 | 0.261 | 2.75 | 0.209 | 101.14 | 20.8% |
| Cosart | 0.326 | 3.96 | 0.301 | 5.07 | 0.250 | 0.678 | 0.299 | 3.98 | 0.26 | 98.76 | 14.7% |
| Fister | 0.307 | 2.17 | 0.274 | 2.78 | 0.235 | 0.670 | 0.270 | 3.73 | 0.246 | 98.38 | 15.7% |
| Montero | 0.451 | 7.84 | 0.241 | 0.687 | 0.271 | 6.34 | 0.259 | 99.50 | 18.5% | ||
| Hellickson | 0.260 | 2.03 | 0.252 | 0.680 | 0.258 | 4.54 | 0.241 | 89.75 | 16.5% | ||
| Tepesch | 0.336 | 4.08 | 0.383 | 5.13 | 0.252 | 0.699 | 0.280 | 5.15 | 0.27 | 85.14 | 12.6% |
| Peralta | 0.360 | 5.50 | 0.270 | 1.56 | 0.232 | 0.666 | 0.281 | 4.33 | 0.253 | 99.50 | 17.1% |
| Hendricks | 0.259 | 1.32 | 0.267 | 2.84 | 0.259 | 0.730 | 0.250 | 3.75 | 0.221 | 94.75 | 16.5% |
| Pino | 0.358 | 4.18 | 0.264 | 4.98 | 0.228 | 0.666 | 0.309 | 3.47 | 0.264 | 92.38 | 18.5% |
| McHugh | 0.286 | 2.86 | 0.278 | 3.83 | 0.246 | 0.701 | 0.256 | 3.52 | 0.199 | 100.06 | 27.4% |
| Lester | 0.301 | 2.04 | 0.282 | 2.76 | 0.261 | 0.692 | 0.311 | 2.63 | 0.24 | 109.59 | 25.0% |
| Guthrie | 0.363 | 5.24 | 0.300 | 3.51 | 0.254 | 0.732 | 0.297 | 4.73 | 0.272 | 103.09 | 15.1% |
| Williams | 0.386 | 7.34 | 0.364 | 6.00 | 0.256 | 0.721 | 0.361 | 4.33 | 0.314 | 35.46 | 16.5% |
| Wilson | 0.268 | 4.22 | 0.347 | 4.94 | 0.245 | 0.691 | 0.304 | 4.40 | 0.253 | 103.55 | 21.7% |
| Happ | 0.321 | 4.98 | 0.344 | 4.15 | 0.245 | 0.637 | 0.310 | 4.25 | 0.267 | 84.65 | 18.6% |
| Young | 0.341 | 3.34 | 0.256 | 3.19 | 0.271 | 0.778 | 0.229 | 4.76 | 0.219 | 93.70 | 15.5% |
| Flande | 0.237 | 5.40 | 0.372 | 5.94 | 0.220 | 0.623 | 0.315 | 3.24 | 0.273 | 77.50 | 14.4% |
| Despaigne | 0.334 | 2.70 | 0.273 | 3.46 | 0.279 | 0.768 | 0.261 | 4.31 | 0.234 | 101.38 | 13.4% |
| Sale | 0.145 | 0.00 | 0.264 | 2.78 | 0.248 | 0.702 | 0.270 | 2.36 | 0.197 | 104.94 | 29.3% |
| Vogelsong | 0.336 | 3.71 | 0.309 | 3.58 | 0.260 | 0.735 | 0.313 | 3.45 | 0.261 | 95.78 | 19.3% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
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- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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