Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 13th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ranaudo | BOS | CIN | |||||||||
| Leake | CIN | BOS | 153.2 | 3.46 | 3.41 | 1.24 | 45.0% | 18.4% | 5.1% | 0.88 | 2.11 |
| Gibson | MIN | HOU | 121.1 | 3.93 | 4.17 | 1.21 | 52.6% | 13.3% | 6.4% | 0.59 | 1.93 |
| Oberholtzer | HOU | MIN | 90.2 | 4.17 | 4.43 | 1.38 | 41.7% | 14.9% | 5.4% | 0.69 | 0.83 |
| Quintana | CWS | SFG | 142.1 | 3.04 | 3.58 | 1.23 | 50.0% | 21.3% | 7.2% | 0.38 | 1.52 |
| Peavy | SFG | CWS | 137 | 4.73 | 4.21 | 1.38 | 42.1% | 18.4% | 8.1% | 1.31 | 0.98 |
| Matzek | COL | SDP | 59.1 | 5.31 | 4.54 | 1.50 | 25.0% | 14.2% | 7.7% | 0.76 | 1.35 |
| Kennedy | SDP | COL | 140.1 | 3.59 | 3.31 | 1.23 | 47.6% | 25.7% | 8.1% | 0.71 | 1.16 |
| Pineda | NYY | BAL | 19.2 | 1.83 | 4.18 | 1.02 | 75.0% | 19.5% | 3.9% | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| Tillman | BAL | NYY | 143 | 3.78 | 4.61 | 1.31 | 42.9% | 15.4% | 8.4% | 0.88 | 1.06 |
| Nuno | ARI | CLE | 107.1 | 4.78 | 4.19 | 1.33 | 18.8% | 18.3% | 7.4% | 1.59 | 0.84 |
| Bauer | CLE | ARI | 96.1 | 4.20 | 3.98 | 1.42 | 38.5% | 21.3% | 8.4% | 1.03 | 0.73 |
| Worley | PIT | DET | 55.2 | 2.43 | 3.99 | 1.10 | 40.0% | 14.3% | 4.0% | 0.65 | 1.54 |
| Farmer | DET | PIT | |||||||||
| Ryu | LAD | ATL | 124.2 | 3.39 | 3.31 | 1.22 | 61.1% | 21.4% | 4.6% | 0.58 | 1.45 |
| Santana | ATL | LAD | 138 | 3.59 | 3.50 | 1.25 | 38.9% | 22.1% | 7.3% | 0.59 | 1.58 |
| Zimmermann | WAS | NYM | 132 | 3.00 | 3.14 | 1.17 | 52.6% | 22.5% | 3.9% | 0.61 | 1.38 |
| Colon | NYM | WAS | 146.1 | 4.12 | 3.72 | 1.18 | 42.1% | 18.2% | 3.3% | 0.98 | 0.98 |
| Masterson | STL | MIA | 104 | 5.63 | 4.04 | 1.65 | 36.8% | 20.3% | 12.3% | 0.52 | 3.00 |
| Eovaldi | MIA | STL | 143 | 4.22 | 4.01 | 1.22 | 50.0% | 16.5% | 5.0% | 0.69 | 1.20 |
| Lohse | MIL | CHC | 150.2 | 3.40 | 3.95 | 1.15 | 50.0% | 17.5% | 5.0% | 0.90 | 1.05 |
| Wada | CHC | MIL | 21.2 | 3.32 | 3.93 | 1.34 | 20.7% | 8.7% | 0.42 | 1.24 | |
| Archer | TBR | TEX | 131.2 | 3.42 | 3.84 | 1.31 | 55.0% | 20.9% | 9.1% | 0.41 | 1.65 |
| Mikolas | TEX | TBR | 33.1 | 7.29 | 4.51 | 1.53 | 14.6% | 7.3% | 0.81 | 1.23 | |
| Kazmir | OAK | KCR | 135.1 | 2.53 | 3.40 | 1.06 | 63.2% | 22.0% | 5.8% | 0.73 | 1.32 |
| Vargas | KCR | OAK | 129.1 | 3.69 | 4.15 | 1.24 | 68.4% | 16.1% | 5.4% | 0.97 | 1.08 |
| Burnett | PHI | LAA | 151.1 | 4.16 | 4.15 | 1.38 | 38.1% | 18.8% | 10.0% | 0.77 | 1.78 |
| Weaver | LAA | PHI | 150.1 | 3.59 | 4.24 | 1.18 | 52.4% | 18.8% | 7.4% | 1.08 | 0.68 |
| Dickey | TOR | SEA | 152 | 4.03 | 3.99 | 1.28 | 47.6% | 19.8% | 8.0% | 1.18 | 1.11 |
| Iwakuma | SEA | TOR | 125.1 | 2.94 | 3.02 | 0.99 | 60.0% | 20.9% | 2.3% | 0.93 | 1.63 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (v. TOR) – Despite an ERA 0.20 higher than his 2013 mark, there is a strong case to be made that Iwakuma is having a better season than his breakout last year. He is walking virtually nobody with an MLB-best 0.7 BB9. He’s gone at least seven innings in each of his last seven outings yielding a 2.10 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and 14.0 K:BB ratio. His performance the last two years has made him matchup-proof, especially at home.
Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD (at ATL) – While he has a few duds on his ledger (who doesn’t?), he has still been one of the most consistent arms in the game. He’s only allowed more than 3 ER four times this year and just once in the last two months. The Braves, despite being a team in the thick of the pennant race, remain a team you can pick on with pitchers. They are more susceptible against righties, but they have the fifth-worst OPS against lefties since the break.
Jordan Zimmermann WAS (at NYM) – I barely remembered that Zimm had a 4.05 ERA at the end of May thanks to a brutal four-start stretch that month, but he has been his ace-level self since then with a 2.29 ERA, 76 Ks, and a 9.5 K:BB ratio in his last 12 starts. The Mets remain one of the league’s most anemic offenses and while he hasn’t outright dominated them, Zimm has held them down for a couple of quality starts this season and a 3.35 career ERA in 18 starts.
Kyle Lohse MIL (at CHC) – I think some of the excitement around the Cubs’ young players has clouded the fact that they remain a bad team and one worth picking on regularly. Sure, they sit 16th in the league in OPS v. righties since the break, but a .674 is hardly imposing (.660 for the season sits 28th) and they still have the fourth-highest strikeout rate (23%). Lohse has owned the Cubs this year, including a shutout the last time he faced them back on June 1st.
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.
Chris Archer TB (at TEX) – Archer started off the season dealing with inconsistency. One good start, two shaky ones; two great ones, one implosion, until back-to-back scoreless outings in mid-May put him on track for a while. Since May 16th, he has a 2.44 ERA in 15 starts with 87 Ks in 92.3 IP. He still had some rough outings in that stretch, but they are fewer and further between. The Rangers might put up a few runs on Archer, but their 22-34 record at home bodes well for him emerging victorious especially with Mikolas on the mound for Texas.
Tsuyoshi Wada CHC (v. MIL) – Since getting blasted by San Diego of all teams, Wada has strung together an impressive three-start stretch with a 2.41 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and exactly six strikeouts in each start (18 Ks in 18.7 IP). Despite their severe platoon advantage against lefties, the Brewers hit to a .701 OPS against them, just 19th in the league. I’m riding the hot streak here.
Chris Tillman BAL (v. NYY) – I’m starting to buy back in on Tillman because his component numbers are starting to match up with the work he’s doing. He’s actually been on fire for a while with a 2.40 ERA in his last 12 starts, but he had just 9 Ks and 12 BBs in the first five which left thinking he was due to backslide. But he’s started missing more bats and walking fewer over these last seven with a 38/9 K:BB ratio in 45 IP. The weather should be clear according to forecasts after last night’s rainout.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Nathan Eovaldi MIA (v. STL) – Is Eovaldi back on track or just exploiting the weak Cincy offense? He has had back-to-back gems against the Reds (1 ER in 15 IP with 12 Ks) on the heels of a horrific 6.41 ERA in his previous nine starts. I’ve loved the stuff forever and I really thought he was poised for a breakout season, but he fell apart in mid-June with that nine-start stretch. He has a great chance to stay hot against the lowly Cards’ offense, which hasn’t been much better than their division mates in Cincinnati.
Vidal Nuno ARI (at CLE) – We’ve seen some decent things from Nuno throughout the season, but it’s been mostly bad with a 5.01 ERA in 111.3 IP. And yet, I’m willing to take a shot today. Cleveland doesn’t hit lefties at all. They have a .666 OPS for the season (27th) and it’s been worse since the break at .629 (25th). Nuno’s 3.1 K:BB ratio with Arizona is solid, but his 1.4 HR/9 (and 1.6 on the season) makes it hard to fully leverage that impressive K:BB ratio. Homers have been Nuno’s big issue, but that’s exactly what dries up for Cleveland against lefties so I like the gamble here.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- A.J. Burnett PHI (at LAA)
- Jake Peavy SF (v. CWS)
- Justin Masterson STL (at MIA)
- Miles Mikolas TEX (v. TB)
- Buck Farmer DET (v. PIT)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ranaudo | 0.243 | 0.674 | |||||||||
| Leake | 0.367 | 4.41 | 0.279 | 2.79 | 0.243 | 0.685 | 0.302 | 3.68 | 0.26 | 98.91 | 18.4% |
| Gibson | 0.320 | 3.57 | 0.256 | 4.32 | 0.228 | 0.666 | 0.271 | 3.71 | 0.245 | 89.67 | 13.3% |
| Oberholtzer | 0.292 | 2.95 | 0.338 | 4.54 | 0.253 | 0.701 | 0.322 | 3.62 | 0.284 | 94.33 | 14.9% |
| Quintana | 0.284 | 4.38 | 0.285 | 2.56 | 0.248 | 0.702 | 0.308 | 2.84 | 0.244 | 106.30 | 21.3% |
| Peavy | 0.356 | 5.53 | 0.333 | 3.86 | 0.260 | 0.735 | 0.295 | 4.61 | 0.262 | 102.45 | 18.4% |
| Matzek | 0.277 | 3.46 | 0.375 | 5.83 | 0.220 | 0.623 | 0.327 | 4.10 | 0.29 | 83.55 | 14.2% |
| Kennedy | 0.295 | 2.66 | 0.310 | 4.38 | 0.279 | 0.768 | 0.307 | 3.11 | 0.235 | 103.91 | 25.7% |
| Pineda | 0.308 | 2.13 | 0.256 | 0.717 | 0.276 | 2.73 | 0.23 | 76.50 | 19.5% | ||
| Tillman | 0.312 | 3.33 | 0.307 | 4.31 | 0.247 | 0.692 | 0.270 | 4.26 | 0.242 | 99.25 | 15.4% |
| Nuno | 0.306 | 3.28 | 0.350 | 5.23 | 0.243 | 0.664 | 0.281 | 4.91 | 0.258 | 80.27 | 18.3% |
| Bauer | 0.325 | 4.57 | 0.346 | 3.91 | 0.253 | 0.695 | 0.326 | 3.99 | 0.269 | 102.00 | 21.3% |
| Worley | 0.299 | 3.24 | 0.258 | 1.76 | 0.271 | 0.747 | 0.270 | 3.46 | 0.243 | 85.00 | 14.3% |
| Farmer | 0.245 | 0.667 | |||||||||
| Ryu | 0.288 | 3.03 | 0.295 | 3.51 | 0.259 | 0.734 | 0.319 | 2.79 | 0.259 | 96.24 | 21.4% |
| Santana | 0.346 | 3.89 | 0.261 | 3.26 | 0.265 | 0.737 | 0.316 | 3.12 | 0.252 | 97.71 | 22.1% |
| Zimmermann | 0.293 | 2.93 | 0.304 | 3.08 | 0.235 | 0.670 | 0.325 | 2.74 | 0.26 | 88.59 | 22.5% |
| Colon | 0.293 | 3.95 | 0.321 | 4.32 | 0.241 | 0.687 | 0.298 | 3.51 | 0.261 | 99.68 | 18.2% |
| Masterson | 0.412 | 7.00 | 0.305 | 4.14 | 0.246 | 0.690 | 0.351 | 4.04 | 0.277 | 90.15 | 20.3% |
| Eovaldi | 0.348 | 4.71 | 0.255 | 3.62 | 0.250 | 0.678 | 0.296 | 3.51 | 0.258 | 98.96 | 16.5% |
| Lohse | 0.296 | 3.44 | 0.294 | 3.38 | 0.232 | 0.666 | 0.274 | 3.70 | 0.242 | 99.04 | 17.5% |
| Wada | 0.376 | 4.70 | 0.243 | 0.704 | 0.317 | 3.23 | 0.253 | 93.50 | 20.7% | ||
| Archer | 0.280 | 3.08 | 0.315 | 3.84 | 0.252 | 0.680 | 0.305 | 3.25 | 0.243 | 98.14 | 20.9% |
| Mikolas | 0.306 | 8.10 | 0.364 | 6.08 | 0.252 | 0.699 | 0.325 | 4.07 | 0.288 | 90.33 | 14.6% |
| Kazmir | 0.264 | 2.25 | 0.276 | 2.61 | 0.261 | 0.692 | 0.271 | 3.23 | 0.223 | 95.00 | 22.0% |
| Vargas | 0.312 | 2.43 | 0.313 | 4.13 | 0.244 | 0.712 | 0.291 | 3.99 | 0.261 | 102.15 | 16.1% |
| Burnett | 0.357 | 5.40 | 0.300 | 3.19 | 0.256 | 0.721 | 0.291 | 4.10 | 0.245 | 101.50 | 18.8% |
| Weaver | 0.320 | 3.83 | 0.260 | 3.22 | 0.240 | 0.658 | 0.260 | 4.16 | 0.23 | 97.21 | 18.8% |
| Dickey | 0.319 | 3.33 | 0.323 | 4.59 | 0.243 | 0.687 | 0.275 | 4.34 | 0.239 | 105.08 | 19.8% |
| Iwakuma | 0.307 | 3.48 | 0.229 | 2.42 | 0.271 | 0.778 | 0.279 | 3.14 | 0.239 | 94.50 | 20.9% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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