Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 15th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morton | PIT | WAS | 144.1 | 3.43 | 3.81 | 1.23 | 50.0% | 18.5% | 8.4% | 0.56 | 2.32 |
| Roark | WAS | PIT | 141 | 2.94 | 3.78 | 1.09 | 52.6% | 18.6% | 5.3% | 0.70 | 1.21 |
| Chen | BAL | CLE | 129.1 | 3.90 | 3.81 | 1.27 | 31.6% | 17.7% | 4.2% | 1.32 | 1.13 |
| Kluber | CLE | BAL | 165.2 | 2.55 | 2.77 | 1.08 | 57.1% | 26.7% | 5.3% | 0.54 | 1.60 |
| Paxton | SEA | DET | 16.1 | 2.76 | 2.62 | 0.92 | 50.0% | 29.0% | 8.1% | 1.65 | 3.00 |
| Porcello | DET | SEA | 141.1 | 3.18 | 3.88 | 1.12 | 55.6% | 15.8% | 5.4% | 0.76 | 1.76 |
| Wood | CHC | NYM | 133 | 5.08 | 4.43 | 1.54 | 30.0% | 18.3% | 9.7% | 0.88 | 0.92 |
| Wheeler | NYM | CHC | 134.1 | 3.48 | 3.60 | 1.35 | 55.0% | 22.8% | 9.7% | 0.67 | 1.96 |
| Cahill | ARI | MIA | 63.1 | 5.12 | 3.75 | 1.59 | 20.0% | 21.2% | 9.9% | 0.71 | 1.75 |
| Hand | MIA | ARI | 67 | 4.03 | 4.63 | 1.42 | 33.3% | 14.5% | 9.3% | 0.54 | 1.33 |
| McCarthy | NYY | TBR | 140 | 4.37 | 3.01 | 1.36 | 35.0% | 20.3% | 4.4% | 1.09 | 2.47 |
| Cobb | TBR | NYY | 102.1 | 3.52 | 3.29 | 1.20 | 42.9% | 22.3% | 7.4% | 0.79 | 2.09 |
| Keuchel | HOU | BOS | 143.1 | 2.89 | 3.16 | 1.21 | 50.0% | 18.6% | 5.8% | 0.50 | 3.01 |
| Buchholz | BOS | HOU | 101.2 | 6.20 | 4.40 | 1.61 | 33.3% | 16.2% | 8.2% | 1.15 | 1.28 |
| Hammel | OAK | ATL | 131.1 | 3.70 | 3.61 | 1.20 | 47.4% | 21.9% | 6.9% | 1.03 | 1.12 |
| Wood | ATL | OAK | 109.2 | 3.20 | 3.30 | 1.24 | 58.3% | 23.6% | 6.6% | 0.90 | 1.25 |
| Richards | LAA | TEX | 153.1 | 2.58 | 3.22 | 1.02 | 65.0% | 24.7% | 7.8% | 0.29 | 1.75 |
| Martinez | TEX | LAA | 83 | 5.31 | 5.70 | 1.65 | 27.3% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 1.52 | 0.71 |
| Stroman | TOR | CWS | 77.1 | 3.49 | 3.35 | 1.16 | 66.7% | 21.4% | 5.7% | 0.58 | 1.51 |
| Noesi | CWS | TOR | 114 | 4.97 | 4.47 | 1.45 | 26.7% | 16.8% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 0.99 |
| Duffy | KCR | MIN | 109 | 2.39 | 4.27 | 1.10 | 57.1% | 19.7% | 9.3% | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| Nolasco | MIN | KCR | 103.2 | 5.90 | 4.28 | 1.62 | 16.7% | 15.7% | 6.1% | 1.39 | 1.11 |
| Ross | SDP | STL | 154.2 | 2.62 | 3.11 | 1.18 | 66.7% | 24.7% | 8.5% | 0.58 | 2.56 |
| Lynn | STL | SDP | 140 | 2.89 | 3.84 | 1.28 | 60.0% | 21.2% | 8.9% | 0.45 | 1.41 |
| Cueto | CIN | COL | 171.2 | 2.04 | 3.04 | 0.91 | 76.2% | 25.7% | 6.7% | 0.68 | 1.58 |
| Morales | COL | CIN | 106.1 | 5.08 | 4.69 | 1.59 | 15.4% | 15.3% | 10.3% | 1.69 | 1.35 |
| Nelson | MIL | LAD | 30 | 4.20 | 3.59 | 1.23 | 20.5% | 6.8% | 0.90 | 1.62 | |
| Greinke | LAD | MIL | 146.1 | 2.71 | 2.71 | 1.14 | 50.0% | 26.5% | 4.9% | 0.86 | 1.73 |
| Hamels | PHI | SFG | 137.1 | 2.42 | 3.20 | 1.11 | 58.8% | 25.1% | 7.2% | 0.52 | 1.46 |
| Bumgarner | SFG | PHI | 154 | 3.21 | 3.15 | 1.18 | 47.6% | 24.2% | 5.9% | 0.70 | 1.41 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
PLATINUM BUYS:
These are aces who don’t really need much (if any) explanation at all. They’re expensive, but awesome. If an ace-level arm is struggling a bit or has a tough matchup, he might fall into the gold or silver tiers, but otherwise you’re going to find the Kershaws, Hernandez, and Sales of the world in here.
Corey Kluber CLE (v. BAL)
Cole Hamels PHI (at SF)
Zack Greinke LAD (v. MIL)
Garrett Richards LAA (at TEX)
Tyson Ross SD (at STL) – Yes, he’s earned his way into this tier.
Madison Bumgarner SF (v. PHI)
Lance Lynn STL (v. SD) – I’m not sure he’s a lock-solid Platinum guy just yet, but he does have a 2.82 ERA in his last 175.3 IP dating back to last September.
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Johnny Cueto CIN (at COL) – A trip to Coors takes him out of the Platinum tier for just a moment. I’m not even really THAT worried about it, but anything can happen there as we all know too well. On a full day, it seems like an unnecessary risk to pick someone pitching in Coors, even a stud.
Tanner Roark WAS (v. PIT) – Roark has earned himself Gold status by pitching to a 2.86 ERA yet maintaining a rather friendly DFS price. It’s certainly gone up as the season wears on, but it’s not astronomical. He’s the ninth-most expensive at DraftKings on Friday and 13th at FanDuel. This discount makes his modest 6.8 K9 more palatable. He has allowed exactly 1 ER in seven of his last 10.
Zack Wheeler NYM (CHC) – There’s a lot of talk about his 2.25 ERA in five starts since the break, but he was emerging well before that. He has a 2.78 ERA in his last 15 starts (90.7 IP) with 89 strikeouts and a 2.8 K:BB ratio. There are some bats to avoid in the Cubs lineup, but it’s still a weak unit on the whole.
Marcus Stroman TOR (v. CWS) – You really have to dig into Stroman’s to see his excellence this year. He had back-to-back four earned run outings in his final two relief appearances before shifting into the rotation where he’s posted a 2.59 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 3.4 K:BB ratio in 80 IP. In his last seven outings, he has gone fewer than 7 IP just twice.
Alex Cobb TB (v. NYY) – I was quite surprised to see Cobb toting a 4.20 ERA through his first 11 starts of the season, of course he did lose over a month to injury so that definitely factors in. Alas, he has turned the page this last month-plus. Starting in July, he has a 2.25 ERA in his last seven starts with 46 Ks and a 3.8 K:BB ratio in 44 IP of work. He’s allowed more than 2 ER just once (and it was 3 ER at DET) and has a pair of 10+ K games (including a season-high 12 v. MIL three starts ago). Despite hanging around the playoff picture and making several solid, incremental upgrades at the deadline, the Yankees’ offense is still uninspiring against righties. Their .666 OPS against righties since the break is actually a tick off of their .686 season pace.
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.
Brandon McCarthy NYY (at TB) – McCarthy has continued to stay hot with the Yankees, posting a 2.21 ERA in 36.7 IP with 36 Ks and a 6.0 K:BB ratio. Nothing has really changed from his Arizona days except that his obscene HR/FB rate has evened out. In fact, that’s exactly what xFIP aims to do so his 2.89 xFIP with Arizona told us all he was pitching much better than his 5.01. Now that his HR/FB rate has dropped from 20 to 10 percent, McCarthy’s results are more in line with how he’s been pitching all year. xFIP is known for being the best predictor of future ERA performance and we’ve seen that play out nicely with McCarthy in-season.
Dallas Keuchel HOU (at BOS) – Even with a 6 IP/5 ER hiccup against Texas, Keuchel still has a 2.17 ERA in his last four starts which tells you how good the other three were (2 ER in 23 IP). The Red Sox have become a team to pick on with pitchers as they just don’t the threatening offense they did a year ago. They are better against lefties than righties with a .700 OPS, but that’s just the 19th-best in baseball and their .701 at home moves them up just three spots. Given the recent run, I’m assuming the wrist is healthy for Keuchel making this a pretty favorable matchup for him.
Alex Wood ATL (v. OAK) – Too bad he can’t hit or he’d be the super-lifesaver for the Braves, but instead Wood has simply stabilized the rotation yet again. Since returning to a starting role on June 25th, Wood has reeled off a 2.70 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 56.7 IP of work with 56 Ks and a 3.1 K:BB ratio, including a 12-K effort against Washington his last time out. I was admittedly skeptical about Wood coming into the season, but he has impressed me during both of his stretches in the rotation (3.00 ERA in seven starts to open the year (7 of the 15 ER came in one outing or that figure would be even more impressive).
Rick Porcello DET (v. SEA) – Porcello has quietly been awesome this year with a 3.11 ERA that was the rotation’s best before Max Scherzer’s dominance over Pittsburgh on Thursday. He doesn’t really strike anyone out (though he did fan 10 Rockies on Aug 2nd) with a meager 5.6 K9, but with tiny ratios and long starts (he’s gone at least 7 IP in seven of his last eight), he makes up for his modest strikeout totals. The lower strikeout totals seem to keep his price in check, too, which creates value for us. The M’s offense against righties is about league average. Porcello has had some trouble with their big 2014 addition (.350 AVG for Cano in 23 PA, but no pop evidenced by the .450 SLG), but not enough to scare me away from using him here.
Danny Duffy KC (at MIN) – He’s slowly getting his component numbers on track with his sparkling ERA, but the walk issue still crops up from time to time. He hadn’t fanned more than five in an outing through his first seven starts (5.1 K9), but he’s done so five different times in his last 11 with a couple of 5 K games thrown in, too (7.6 K9). He has a pair of 5.7 IP/1 ER outings against the Twins this year, but the latest included six walks, cutting deep into his scoring upside. They have been baseball’s second-worst team against lefties since the break (.567 OPS), though, so I like him for a big outing if he can avoid the free pass. Of course, that’s the story of his life as a pitcher, so it’s easier said than done.
Jason Hammel OAK (at ATL) – First off, this one is definitely heavily influenced by opposing team. In OPS against righties, the Braves sit fourth… from the bottom with a .663 OPS that puts in close proximity with the Phillies (.657), Cubs (.660) and Mets (.668). Those aren’t teams any contender wants to be associated with offensively. Meanwhile, Hammel has looked better of late allowing just 1 ER in his last two starts (12 IP). He has a discernible and fixable problem which makes me confident in a rebound. If that slider gets going, he’ll be sharp again.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Wei-Yin Chen BAL (at CLE) – Lefties own this Cleveland team and we saw a nice microcosm of that during their doubleheader against Arizona. A couple of nondescript lefties (Vidal Nuno and Andrew Chafin) held them to just two runs in 10.7 IP, taking their season OPS against southpaws down to .659 (27th in the league). They are at .599 in the second half alone (28th). Chen has been his usual up-and-down self, yielding yet another league average-ish season (4.02, 4.07, and 3.90 ERAs as a major leaguer so far). He’s usually good for stretches at a time, interrupted by a dud here and there. His last seven were bookended by 3.3 IP/5 ER and 5 IP/4 ER outings, but he had a 2.53 ERA in 32 IP during the five starts in between.
Trevor Cahill ARI (at MIA) – I was once a BIG believer in Cahill. That particular belief has definitely faded over time, but I remain intrigued by his talent. I still don’t understand why he fell off so rapidly this year, but he’s looked much better of late. He has three straight quality starts and two really strong 7 IP outings in a row (3 ER, 14 Ks, and 3 BBs). The Marlins offense was sixth in the league in OPS v. righties in April, but they have been 22nd since May 1st.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morton | 0.290 | 2.78 | 0.317 | 4.07 | 0.241 | 0.687 | 0.283 | 3.83 | 0.236 | 98.30 | 18.5% |
| Roark | 0.284 | 3.21 | 0.274 | 2.66 | 0.260 | 0.740 | 0.269 | 3.41 | 0.23 | 97.09 | 18.6% |
| Chen | 0.331 | 3.82 | 0.334 | 3.92 | 0.243 | 0.664 | 0.304 | 4.17 | 0.273 | 96.55 | 17.7% |
| Kluber | 0.309 | 2.87 | 0.237 | 2.22 | 0.256 | 0.717 | 0.306 | 2.49 | 0.23 | 101.71 | 26.7% |
| Paxton | 0.311 | 3.86 | 0.284 | 0.792 | 0.194 | 4.24 | 0.175 | 80.67 | 29.0% | ||
| Porcello | 0.289 | 2.82 | 0.300 | 3.62 | 0.243 | 0.687 | 0.272 | 3.65 | 0.243 | 98.76 | 15.8% |
| Wood | 0.272 | 4.05 | 0.370 | 5.52 | 0.246 | 0.668 | 0.324 | 4.20 | 0.274 | 99.87 | 18.3% |
| Wheeler | 0.363 | 4.71 | 0.267 | 2.57 | 0.232 | 0.666 | 0.314 | 3.53 | 0.248 | 101.57 | 22.8% |
| Cahill | 0.410 | 8.42 | 0.295 | 2.87 | 0.246 | 0.690 | 0.360 | 3.64 | 0.287 | 48.74 | 21.2% |
| Hand | 0.289 | 5.49 | 0.334 | 3.42 | 0.261 | 0.709 | 0.295 | 3.87 | 0.259 | 47.65 | 14.5% |
| McCarthy | 0.347 | 4.33 | 0.325 | 4.41 | 0.252 | 0.699 | 0.343 | 3.59 | 0.289 | 94.26 | 20.3% |
| Cobb | 0.274 | 3.68 | 0.314 | 3.35 | 0.247 | 0.692 | 0.288 | 3.58 | 0.233 | 94.47 | 22.3% |
| Keuchel | 0.294 | 2.48 | 0.304 | 3.03 | 0.251 | 0.707 | 0.308 | 3.19 | 0.256 | 103.10 | 18.6% |
| Buchholz | 0.383 | 5.58 | 0.342 | 7.07 | 0.228 | 0.666 | 0.340 | 4.62 | 0.3 | 96.61 | 16.2% |
| Hammel | 0.316 | 3.15 | 0.301 | 4.09 | 0.241 | 0.663 | 0.290 | 3.79 | 0.243 | 97.00 | 21.9% |
| Wood | 0.310 | 2.25 | 0.304 | 3.59 | 0.244 | 0.712 | 0.314 | 3.39 | 0.252 | 66.88 | 23.6% |
| Richards | 0.236 | 2.83 | 0.251 | 2.27 | 0.252 | 0.680 | 0.258 | 2.66 | 0.195 | 103.35 | 24.7% |
| Martinez | 0.397 | 4.70 | 0.359 | 6.00 | 0.256 | 0.721 | 0.300 | 5.79 | 0.296 | 75.89 | 10.2% |
| Stroman | 0.276 | 2.74 | 0.299 | 4.60 | 0.260 | 0.735 | 0.298 | 3.00 | 0.242 | 76.24 | 21.4% |
| Noesi | 0.307 | 4.43 | 0.380 | 5.69 | 0.271 | 0.778 | 0.295 | 4.81 | 0.267 | 78.00 | 16.8% |
| Duffy | 0.184 | 1.13 | 0.292 | 2.75 | 0.253 | 0.701 | 0.233 | 3.85 | 0.199 | 77.26 | 19.7% |
| Nolasco | 0.414 | 6.70 | 0.368 | 5.17 | 0.263 | 0.686 | 0.362 | 4.57 | 0.325 | 97.56 | 15.7% |
| Ross | 0.274 | 2.84 | 0.289 | 2.39 | 0.250 | 0.678 | 0.288 | 3.07 | 0.222 | 101.00 | 24.7% |
| Lynn | 0.303 | 2.52 | 0.287 | 3.18 | 0.226 | 0.635 | 0.292 | 3.22 | 0.233 | 104.48 | 21.2% |
| Cueto | 0.244 | 1.84 | 0.243 | 2.23 | 0.279 | 0.768 | 0.228 | 3.06 | 0.18 | 108.00 | 25.7% |
| Morales | 0.308 | 5.28 | 0.403 | 5.00 | 0.246 | 0.690 | 0.302 | 5.73 | 0.283 | 68.27 | 15.3% |
| Nelson | 0.332 | 5.63 | 0.301 | 2.57 | 0.265 | 0.737 | 0.284 | 4.04 | 0.237 | 96.20 | 20.5% |
| Greinke | 0.294 | 2.51 | 0.288 | 2.87 | 0.259 | 0.730 | 0.316 | 2.86 | 0.244 | 101.48 | 26.5% |
| Hamels | 0.274 | 2.03 | 0.277 | 2.52 | 0.248 | 0.702 | 0.288 | 2.85 | 0.22 | 105.25 | 25.1% |
| Bumgarner | 0.262 | 2.27 | 0.303 | 3.50 | 0.245 | 0.691 | 0.309 | 2.94 | 0.243 | 100.42 | 24.2% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window