Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 16th

by Andrew Cook (louiescards) Last Updated 2014-08-16 21:15:15

The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Kendrick	PHI	SFG	144.1	4.74	4.41	1.33	30.0%	14.2%	6.2%	1.06	1.28
Hudson	SFG	PHI	144.1	2.74	3.50	1.14	68.4%	15.5%	4.1%	0.62	2.30
Greene	NYY	TBR	29.1	3.68	3.65	1.26	100.0%	19.1%	7.9%	0.92	2.27
Smyly	TBR	NYY	110.2	3.98	3.86	1.36	50.0%	20.3%	7.0%	1.14	0.91
Jimenez	BAL	CLE	99.2	4.52	4.65	1.54	27.8%	20.1%	13.7%	0.99	1.42
Carrasco	CLE	BAL	65	3.88	2.92	1.17		23.2%	6.7%	0.69	1.92
Locke	PIT	WAS	81	3.78	3.66	1.16	66.7%	17.0%	3.9%	1.22	1.61
Gonzalez	WAS	PIT	103.1	4.01	3.61	1.27	46.7%	24.5%	9.5%	0.52	1.19
Hernandez	SEA	DET	173.1	1.97	2.42	0.88	81.0%	28.1%	4.8%	0.31	2.15
Price	DET	SEA	179.1	3.11	2.62	1.04	52.4%	27.5%	3.2%	1.10	1.07
Buehrle	TOR	CWS	146	3.27	4.56	1.38	60.0%	13.6%	6.4%	0.80	1.14
Danks	CWS	TOR	140.2	4.93	4.63	1.47	50.0%	15.8%	8.8%	1.47	0.96
Peacock	HOU	BOS	92.2	5.44	4.62	1.62	28.6%	19.5%	12.5%	1.36	0.97
De La Rosa	BOS	HOU	60.1	3.43	4.25	1.31	57.1%	15.9%	7.6%	1.04	1.53
Gray	OAK	ATL	150.1	2.87	3.59	1.20	60.0%	20.9%	8.5%	0.54	2.12
Teheran	ATL	OAK	163.1	2.92	3.49	1.07	70.0%	22.3%	5.5%	0.99	0.85
Ventura	KCR	MIN	127	3.47	3.70	1.31	44.4%	20.2%	7.3%	0.92	1.58
Hughes	MIN	KCR	143.2	4.01	3.26	1.25	45.0%	21.4%	2.4%	0.69	0.96
Miley	ARI	MIA	150.1	4.61	3.59	1.32	33.3%	21.3%	7.7%	1.20	1.70
Alvarez	MIA	ARI	137.2	2.48	3.71	1.22	50.0%	14.7%	4.8%	0.52	2.29
Straily	CHC	NYM	38.1	4.93	4.13	1.25	14.3%	21.4%	9.4%	2.11	0.71
Niese	NYM	CHC	128.1	3.51	3.96	1.28	41.2%	16.6%	6.3%	0.77	1.64
Hahn	SDP	STL	59.1	2.28	3.58	1.06	57.1%	24.1%	10.6%	0.46	2.08
Miller	STL	SDP	128.2	3.99	4.84	1.35	21.1%	15.6%	10.3%	1.05	0.99
Shoemaker	LAA	TEX	87.1	4.02	3.22	1.25	44.4%	22.9%	4.7%	1.24	1.05
Lewis	TEX	LAA	111.1	5.50	4.22	1.65	11.8%	17.9%	6.9%	1.05	0.79
Axelrod	CIN	COL
Lyles	COL	CIN	75	3.72	4.03	1.29	58.3%	17.1%	8.5%	0.72	2.15
Gallardo	MIL	LAD	139.2	3.54	3.66	1.25	50.0%	18.6%	6.7%	0.97	1.88
Kershaw	LAD	MIL	128.1	1.82	1.91	0.85	66.7%	32.5%	3.5%	0.42	2.07

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.

GOLD BUYS:

These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.

felix-hernandez-300x200

Clayton Kershaw LAD (v. MIL) – At this point there is not much to say. He is clearly the best pitcher in the the game today. Tonight he faces the same Brewers team that he held to 1 run over 8 innings pitched striking out 6 batters on his way to the win. The question really is can you afford to roster him tonight and get your bats in because he is head and shoulders above the rest at his position even with all of these studs available.

David Price DET (v. SEA) – This is a great matchup of two AL aces and I expect both to pitch very well. Price will see the better overall matchup so I give him the slight edge when choosing between the two. The Mariners are the second worse in team wOBA vLHP trailing only the Padres and K at a pretty high rate. Today we are likely to see his best start in a Tigers uniform and I expect him to pitch deep into the game with around 10 strikeouts.

Felix Hernandez SEA (at DET) – On the other side we have King Felix who has been the most consistent pitcher in all of baseball. He has 16 straight starts with 7 or more innings pitched with 2 or fewer runs. Today is a tough test with the Tigers strong lineup but he will always have his team in the game and offers a high K upside. This is more of a 2a and 2b situation with Price and Hernandez. If you are playing on a win heavy site then I would lean Price but pitching both on a multi pitcher site could be a smart move.

SILVER BUYS:

On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.

Yordano Ventura KCR (at MIN) – Ventura has pitched well in his two August starts and today he will get a solid matchup with the Twins who offer us some K upside. On July 31st he faced this same team and went 7 innings allowing 1 run and struck out 7 batters. He isn’t typically going to end up on the silver buys for me but today I like what he offers us.

yordano-ventura-300x200

Sonny Gray OAK (at ATL) – Gray comes into the game with a 2.86 ERA on the year and a 12-6 record. The reason he sits in this tier and not above is the game on the 6th against the Rays scares me. His strikeouts are down the past two games and hits and walks are up. He wasn’t helped by some defensive errors but I am going to put him as a mid to upper tier option today. The Braves own the 5th worst K% vRHP so there is plenty of upside in this play.

Julio Teheran ATL (v. OAK) – Teheran is off to a rough start in August surrendering 6 earned to Seattle and 5 earned to the Dodgers. He does offer us some reason to believe that things can change. On the year his ERA sits at 3.06 and has held opponents to a .234 average with 152 strikeouts in 170 2/3 innings pitched. Maybe even more important is how well he has pitched at home going 4-2 with a 1.88 ERA and .90 WHIP while striking out 78 over 86 1/3 innings pitched.

VALUE PLAYS:

These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.

Shelby Miller STL (v. SDP) – This may seem like an odd play considering his stats typically suggest that you should stay away and he is coming off an awful game in Miami. Before that start he had pitched a lot better and that included a game in San Diego where he surrendered 2 earned over 6 innings while striking out 5. I would expect him to have a similar line to that today and is enough to provide value on some secondary pitcher sites.

STAYAWAYS:

These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.

Colby Lewis TEX (v. LAA)
John Danks CWS (v. TOR)
Jordan Lyles COL (v. CIN)

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Kendrick	0.373	6.11	0.297	3.87	0.242	0.678	0.287	4.41	0.264	98.43	14.2%
Hudson	0.327	3.15	0.262	2.31	0.240	0.658	0.286	3.38	0.252	93.41	15.5%
Greene	0.320	3.18	0.262	4.38	0.252	0.699	0.276	4.06	0.237	85.33	19.1%
Smyly	0.214	2.78	0.385	4.56	0.264	0.721	0.319	3.99	0.271	90.27	20.3%
Jimenez	0.364	5.26	0.308	3.72	0.262	0.749	0.298	4.70	0.249	101.11	20.1%
Carrasco	0.309	3.94	0.269	3.82	0.256	0.717	0.296	3.20	0.236	33.60	23.2%
Locke	0.223	3.38	0.332	3.90	0.273	0.729	0.282	4.08	0.257	94.50	17.0%
Gonzalez	0.309	6.33	0.299	3.40	0.245	0.667	0.303	3.09	0.231	96.56	24.5%
Hernandez	0.227	1.19	0.231	3.00	0.271	0.747	0.262	2.05	0.191	102.83	28.1%
Price	0.307	3.74	0.280	2.91	0.245	0.637	0.300	2.98	0.236	111.50	27.5%
Buehrle	0.337	2.54	0.332	3.53	0.258	0.711	0.308	3.99	0.279	99.57	13.6%
Danks	0.326	3.63	0.370	5.35	0.246	0.705	0.293	5.20	0.27	104.65	15.8%
Peacock	0.341	4.97	0.379	6.00	0.243	0.685	0.315	5.10	0.271	81.35	19.5%
De La Rosa	0.355	4.04	0.311	2.55	0.228	0.666	0.288	4.32	0.26	99.80	15.9%
Gray	0.283	2.61	0.275	3.23	0.241	0.663	0.278	3.33	0.225	101.00	20.9%
Teheran	0.298	3.39	0.265	2.44	0.254	0.732	0.268	3.50	0.226	100.17	22.3%
Ventura	0.313	2.99	0.314	4.18	0.246	0.701	0.300	3.73	0.252	93.41	20.2%
Hughes	0.284	3.01	0.347	5.09	0.263	0.686	0.349	2.68	0.285	94.78	21.4%
Miley	0.333	5.52	0.325	4.37	0.268	0.712	0.302	4.12	0.256	98.83	21.3%
Alvarez	0.281	2.18	0.324	2.88	0.253	0.695	0.301	3.39	0.265	86.73	14.7%
Straily	0.342	4.50	0.348	5.51	0.235	0.670	0.240	5.67	0.231	86.86	21.4%
Niese	0.301	4.26	0.322	3.26	0.266	0.749	0.298	3.79	0.259	91.33	16.6%
Hahn	0.229	2.84	0.278	1.63	0.250	0.678	0.233	3.24	0.181	92.20	24.1%
Miller	0.333	4.81	0.310	3.31	0.226	0.635	0.265	4.68	0.242	88.35	15.6%
Shoemaker	0.357	4.60	0.304	3.45	0.252	0.680	0.321	3.64	0.267	72.16	22.9%
Lewis	0.411	6.02	0.329	4.92	0.256	0.721	0.373	4.10	0.318	95.55	17.9%
Axelrod					0.279	0.768
Lyles	0.346	3.86	0.288	3.58	0.243	0.674	0.283	3.94	0.245	93.77	17.1%
Gallardo	0.284	2.51	0.319	4.35	0.265	0.737	0.289	3.90	0.25	100.48	18.6%
Kershaw	0.169	0.33	0.251	2.24	0.243	0.704	0.285	1.72	0.198	99.06	32.5%

Starting Pitcher Salaries

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.