Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 17th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gausman | BAL | CLE | 62 | 3.77 | 4.60 | 1.37 | 37.5% | 15.3% | 8.8% | 0.44 | 1.24 |
| Salazar | CLE | BAL | 62.2 | 4.88 | 3.54 | 1.50 | 12.5% | 24.8% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 0.74 |
| Young | SEA | DET | 134.2 | 3.27 | 5.19 | 1.14 | 47.4% | 15.5% | 8.0% | 1.27 | 0.40 |
| Ray | DET | SEA | 15.1 | 4.70 | 4.95 | 1.63 | 33.3% | 13.4% | 9.0% | 0.59 | 0.95 |
| Arrieta | CHC | NYM | 103 | 2.80 | 2.97 | 1.07 | 50.0% | 26.3% | 6.8% | 0.26 | 1.62 |
| Montero | NYM | CHC | 20 | 5.40 | 4.79 | 1.60 | 25.0% | 18.5% | 12.0% | 2.25 | 0.74 |
| Collmenter | ARI | MIA | 125.1 | 4.09 | 4.32 | 1.28 | 29.4% | 15.9% | 6.3% | 1.08 | 0.93 |
| Koehler | MIA | ARI | 137.1 | 3.80 | 4.30 | 1.23 | 52.6% | 18.1% | 8.9% | 0.72 | 1.13 |
| McHugh | HOU | BOS | 95 | 3.32 | 3.25 | 1.11 | 42.9% | 27.4% | 9.0% | 0.95 | 1.08 |
| Kelly | BOS | HOU | 42 | 3.86 | 3.99 | 1.38 | 40.0% | 14.8% | 7.7% | 0.64 | 2.57 |
| Kuroda | NYY | TBR | 142.2 | 3.97 | 3.85 | 1.20 | 45.0% | 16.4% | 4.5% | 1.01 | 1.45 |
| Hellickson | TBR | NYY | 20.2 | 2.61 | 4.74 | 1.16 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 1.31 | 0.47 | |
| Guthrie | KCR | MIN | 138 | 4.50 | 4.41 | 1.36 | 42.1% | 15.1% | 6.6% | 1.24 | 1.09 |
| Milone | MIN | KCR | 96.1 | 3.55 | 4.47 | 1.21 | 43.8% | 15.1% | 6.4% | 1.12 | 0.92 |
| Hutchison | TOR | CWS | 131.1 | 4.39 | 3.86 | 1.28 | 31.6% | 21.3% | 7.5% | 1.03 | 0.80 |
| Carroll | CWS | TOR | 86.2 | 4.36 | 4.41 | 1.47 | 33.3% | 11.8% | 7.6% | 0.73 | 2.08 |
| Despaigne | SDP | STL | 49.1 | 3.10 | 4.85 | 1.28 | 100.0% | 13.4% | 9.6% | 0.55 | 1.46 |
| Wainwright | STL | SDP | 155 | 2.26 | 3.55 | 1.01 | 84.2% | 20.8% | 6.1% | 0.29 | 1.42 |
| Santiago | LAA | TEX | 84.1 | 3.84 | 4.25 | 1.27 | 16.7% | 20.5% | 9.2% | 0.96 | 0.62 |
| Tepesch | TEX | LAA | 72.2 | 4.46 | 4.89 | 1.38 | 27.3% | 12.6% | 7.8% | 1.36 | 1.07 |
| Buchanan | PHI | SFG | 65.2 | 4.39 | 4.13 | 1.29 | 20.0% | 15.7% | 6.1% | 1.23 | 1.44 |
| Lincecum | SFG | PHI | 134.1 | 4.22 | 3.72 | 1.30 | 40.0% | 21.9% | 9.0% | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Latos | CIN | COL | 66.1 | 3.12 | 4.39 | 0.95 | 66.7% | 16.0% | 6.5% | 0.54 | 0.84 |
| Lyles | COL | CIN | 75 | 3.72 | 4.03 | 1.29 | 58.3% | 17.1% | 8.5% | 0.72 | 2.15 |
| Peralta | MIL | LAD | 138 | 3.52 | 3.81 | 1.28 | 47.4% | 17.1% | 6.9% | 1.17 | 2.01 |
| Haren | LAD | MIL | 134 | 4.57 | 3.87 | 1.29 | 30.0% | 17.3% | 4.9% | 1.48 | 1.27 |
| Volquez | PIT | WAS | 126.2 | 3.91 | 4.44 | 1.31 | 50.0% | 15.3% | 8.5% | 0.99 | 1.48 |
| Fister | WAS | PIT | 104.2 | 2.49 | 3.77 | 1.07 | 58.3% | 15.7% | 3.1% | 0.95 | 1.45 |
| Lester | OAK | ATL | 149.2 | 2.59 | 3.08 | 1.14 | 65.0% | 25.0% | 5.4% | 0.54 | 1.20 |
| Minor | ATL | OAK | 98 | 5.42 | 3.86 | 1.59 | 50.0% | 19.6% | 6.5% | 1.65 | 1.06 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Adam Wainwright STL (v. SDP) – Wainwright will be at home facing the Padres today which should be a relief for the Cardinals ace. He has had a sub par August thus far and will look to turn things around against the leagues worst hitting team statistically. He sits at 14-7 on the season with a 2.34 ERA striking out 138 batters in 169 innings pitched. The Padres rank dead last in wOBA vRHP and sit near the bottom in K% making this about as good of a situation as you can ask for.
Jon Lester OAK (at ATL) – Lester is 4-0 with a 2.02 ERA since the All-Star break striking out 35 batters in 35 2/3 innings pitched. 3 of the 4 wins have come in an A’s uniform and today he will see a matchup that offers high K upside but carries a bit of risk as well. The Braves rank in the bottom 3 in K% vLHP but rank 9th overall in wOBA vLHP. For my money I would side with Lester as dominant as he has looked this season.
Jake Arrieta CHC (at NYM) – Outside of a really rough outing in Coors a couple weeks ago Arrieta has been very solid this season. He is 6-4 with a 2.77 ERA and 113 strikeouts over 110 1/3 innings pitched. Equally important is the fact that he has held left handed bats to a .234 average which should come into play against a lefty heavy lineup. The Mets rank in the middle of the pack for K% but the bottom 5 in wOBA vRHP.
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.
Collin McHugh HOU (at BOS) – McHugh has been really solid for the Astros since the break posting a 2.45 ERA and .90 WHIP while striking out 25 batters over 25 2/3 innings pitched. The Red Sox are a team that is a bit of a mystery at the plate and rank just below the league average in most statistical categories. He is not a household name by any means but will be a great secondary pitcher option today.
Doug Fister WAS (v. PIT) – Typically Fister is a pitcher that doesn’t show up as a top option because he lacks K upside. He more than makes up for his lower strikeout numbers with a solid 2.34 ERA and 12 wins in 17 starts. Since the break he has seen a slight uptick in strikeouts but will face one of the tougher teams to K this season. Fister is purely a secondary pitcher in my eyes but a good one at that.
Jeremy Hellickson TAM (v. NYY) – Hellickson has flown under the radar a little bit since he got a late start to the season. While he is only 1-1 in his 5 starts, it is not on him as the opposition has only scored more than 1 run in 1 of the 5 games. He has a very good 2.03 ERA and the Rays offense has been playing well lately so hopefully we see some run support here.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Joe Kelly BOS (v. HOU) – The Astros offer us the second highest K% vRHP on the season and Kelly has been solid in his two starts with the Red Sox. This is not a slam dunk by any means as Kelly has had trouble with walks, but I like him to take control in this matchup and give the Sox another solid start. He has a 2.08 ERA and held the opposition to a .186 average in those first two starts but walked 7 batters in 13 innings pitched.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
Scott Carroll CWS (v. TOR)
Nick Tepesch TEX (v. LAA)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gausman | 0.334 | 2.75 | 0.283 | 5.19 | 0.262 | 0.749 | 0.304 | 3.64 | 0.262 | 97.45 | 15.3% |
| Salazar | 0.302 | 3.45 | 0.396 | 6.09 | 0.256 | 0.717 | 0.351 | 4.21 | 0.281 | 93.08 | 24.8% |
| Young | 0.341 | 3.34 | 0.256 | 3.19 | 0.271 | 0.747 | 0.229 | 4.76 | 0.219 | 93.70 | 15.5% |
| Ray | 0.368 | 3.86 | 0.245 | 0.637 | 0.353 | 3.99 | 0.311 | 70.25 | 13.4% | ||
| Arrieta | 0.277 | 2.79 | 0.230 | 2.80 | 0.235 | 0.670 | 0.289 | 2.25 | 0.213 | 95.65 | 26.3% |
| Montero | 0.451 | 7.84 | 0.232 | 0.666 | 0.271 | 6.34 | 0.259 | 99.50 | 18.5% | ||
| Collmenter | 0.353 | 3.88 | 0.297 | 4.28 | 0.246 | 0.690 | 0.288 | 4.18 | 0.261 | 78.48 | 15.9% |
| Koehler | 0.269 | 2.96 | 0.324 | 4.68 | 0.253 | 0.695 | 0.266 | 3.93 | 0.228 | 91.48 | 18.1% |
| McHugh | 0.286 | 2.86 | 0.278 | 3.83 | 0.243 | 0.685 | 0.256 | 3.52 | 0.199 | 100.06 | 27.4% |
| Kelly | 0.350 | 4.15 | 0.296 | 3.54 | 0.228 | 0.666 | 0.301 | 4.00 | 0.265 | 87.38 | 14.8% |
| Kuroda | 0.310 | 4.22 | 0.308 | 3.68 | 0.252 | 0.699 | 0.284 | 3.90 | 0.255 | 98.26 | 16.4% |
| Hellickson | 0.260 | 2.03 | 0.247 | 0.692 | 0.258 | 4.54 | 0.241 | 89.75 | 16.5% | ||
| Guthrie | 0.363 | 5.24 | 0.300 | 3.51 | 0.246 | 0.701 | 0.297 | 4.73 | 0.272 | 103.09 | 15.1% |
| Milone | 0.334 | 3.50 | 0.305 | 3.56 | 0.261 | 0.692 | 0.262 | 4.43 | 0.243 | 93.38 | 15.1% |
| Hutchison | 0.344 | 5.78 | 0.284 | 2.72 | 0.260 | 0.735 | 0.293 | 3.88 | 0.246 | 94.35 | 21.3% |
| Carroll | 0.370 | 3.83 | 0.310 | 5.14 | 0.271 | 0.778 | 0.312 | 4.43 | 0.285 | 77.56 | 11.8% |
| Despaigne | 0.334 | 2.70 | 0.273 | 3.46 | 0.250 | 0.678 | 0.261 | 4.31 | 0.234 | 101.38 | 13.4% |
| Wainwright | 0.275 | 2.19 | 0.237 | 2.32 | 0.226 | 0.635 | 0.261 | 2.75 | 0.209 | 101.14 | 20.8% |
| Santiago | 0.269 | 2.49 | 0.306 | 4.42 | 0.274 | 0.756 | 0.272 | 4.08 | 0.231 | 74.65 | 20.5% |
| Tepesch | 0.336 | 4.08 | 0.383 | 5.13 | 0.256 | 0.721 | 0.280 | 5.15 | 0.27 | 85.14 | 12.6% |
| Buchanan | 0.274 | 2.81 | 0.365 | 5.40 | 0.242 | 0.678 | 0.285 | 4.54 | 0.262 | 93.91 | 15.7% |
| Lincecum | 0.308 | 3.92 | 0.331 | 4.48 | 0.240 | 0.658 | 0.289 | 3.93 | 0.24 | 94.92 | 21.9% |
| Latos | 0.215 | 2.06 | 0.278 | 4.31 | 0.279 | 0.768 | 0.213 | 3.52 | 0.189 | 95.90 | 16.0% |
| Lyles | 0.346 | 3.86 | 0.288 | 3.58 | 0.243 | 0.674 | 0.283 | 3.94 | 0.245 | 93.77 | 17.1% |
| Peralta | 0.360 | 5.50 | 0.270 | 1.56 | 0.265 | 0.737 | 0.281 | 4.33 | 0.253 | 99.50 | 17.1% |
| Haren | 0.318 | 3.97 | 0.351 | 5.14 | 0.259 | 0.730 | 0.292 | 4.47 | 0.268 | 98.83 | 17.3% |
| Volquez | 0.330 | 4.47 | 0.311 | 3.48 | 0.241 | 0.687 | 0.271 | 4.52 | 0.246 | 90.32 | 15.3% |
| Fister | 0.307 | 2.17 | 0.274 | 2.78 | 0.260 | 0.740 | 0.270 | 3.73 | 0.246 | 98.38 | 15.7% |
| Lester | 0.301 | 2.04 | 0.282 | 2.76 | 0.259 | 0.734 | 0.311 | 2.63 | 0.24 | 109.59 | 25.0% |
| Minor | 0.428 | 6.98 | 0.369 | 5.03 | 0.244 | 0.712 | 0.354 | 4.70 | 0.308 | 99.41 | 19.6% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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