Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 18th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elias | SEA | PHI | 129 | 4.19 | 3.81 | 1.28 | 26.3% | 21.6% | 8.5% | 0.98 | 1.22 |
| Williams | PHI | SEA | 57.2 | 6.71 | 3.87 | 1.66 | 16.5% | 7.1% | 1.09 | 1.43 | |
| Santana | ATL | PIT | 138 | 3.59 | 3.50 | 1.25 | 38.9% | 22.1% | 7.3% | 0.59 | 1.58 |
| Worley | PIT | ATL | 55.2 | 2.43 | 3.99 | 1.10 | 40.0% | 14.3% | 4.0% | 0.65 | 1.54 |
| Nuno | ARI | WAS | 107.1 | 4.78 | 4.19 | 1.33 | 18.8% | 18.3% | 7.4% | 1.59 | 0.84 |
| Zimmermann | WAS | ARI | 132 | 3.00 | 3.14 | 1.17 | 52.6% | 22.5% | 3.9% | 0.61 | 1.38 |
| Wilson | LAA | BOS | 117.2 | 4.74 | 3.81 | 1.39 | 42.1% | 21.7% | 9.9% | 1.15 | 1.80 |
| Workman | BOS | LAA | 57.1 | 4.08 | 4.41 | 1.22 | 25.0% | 17.8% | 9.5% | 1.10 | 1.02 |
| Norris | BAL | CWS | 115 | 3.68 | 4.17 | 1.26 | 26.7% | 17.9% | 7.7% | 1.02 | 1.17 |
| Sale | CWS | BAL | 122 | 2.14 | 2.56 | 0.89 | 64.3% | 29.3% | 4.7% | 0.52 | 1.14 |
| Vargas | KCR | MIN | 129.1 | 3.69 | 4.15 | 1.24 | 68.4% | 16.1% | 5.4% | 0.97 | 1.08 |
| May | MIN | KCR | |||||||||
| Leake | CIN | STL | 153.2 | 3.46 | 3.41 | 1.24 | 45.0% | 18.4% | 5.1% | 0.88 | 2.11 |
| Masterson | STL | CIN | 104 | 5.63 | 4.04 | 1.65 | 36.8% | 20.3% | 12.3% | 0.52 | 3.00 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
PLATINUM BUYS:
These are aces who don’t really need much explanation at all. They’re expensive, but awesome. If an ace-level arm is struggling a bit or has a tough matchup, he might fall into the gold or silver tiers, but otherwise you’re going to find the Kershaws, Hernandez, and Sales of the world in here.
Chris Sale CWS (v. BAL) -Baltimore is a tough matchup for Sale tonight, but with such limited pitching I still think he’s in play. Since the start of July he’s pitched 51 innings, and only given up 9 ERs with 64 strikeouts. He faced Baltimore on 6/23 and gave up 2 ERs on 11 hits. I totally expect him to pitch better tonight, and think his hitter will put him in a position to pick up the win. He’s a -170 favorite which is the second highest on the board tonight.
Jordan Zimmermann WAS (v. ARI) – Zimmermann is still a scary pitcher to me, and if he pitched deeper into games he would be the clear cut number 1 tonight. He’s the biggest favorite on the board, but his upside has been very limited over the last month. They’re being very careful with him right now, and trying to save him for a playoff run. With that said, they still need to win tonight, and him pitching into the 7th inning is still the best way to do that. Arizona’s offense has really struggled without Goldy in there, and I really like Zimmermann’s chances to pick up the win tonight.
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Jason Vargas KC (at MIN) – Keep in mind that today’s Gold Buys aren’t quite as golden as on a normal day, but we’re working with a very short slate. The Twins have hit the skids against southpaws (.570 OPS since the break, second-worst in MLB) while Vargas is rolling. He’s had a great season altogether and he enters this game on the heels of a shutout against Oakland of all teams. His first start back from the DL was rough (also v. OAK, back on Aug 2nd), but he bounced back against SF (5 IP/2 ER, 5 K) and then had the shutout. He has killed the Twins this year with a pair of 7 IP/0 ER outings as well as a 7 IP/2 ER.
Ervin Santana ATL (at PIT) – Santana has allowed more than 3 ER just twice in his last 11 starts and both times were just 4 ER. Meanwhile, he has 70 Ks in those 73 IP with a pair of double-digit strikeout efforts and another pair of 9 K games. He’s gone at least 6 IP in his last 14 and he’s yet to finish fewer than 5 IP. He had that lull in May, but he has been really strong on the bookends of those three ugly starts (17 ER in 17 IP across three mid-to-late May starts). The Pirates offense against righties is strong this year, though admittedly markedly worse without Cutch. On a full slate, Santana would probably be a Silver Buy, but we’re short on options and he has real upside.
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.
Vance Worley PIT (v. ATL) – Worley has been great with the Pirates with only a couple of modest outings in the 10 he’s made so far. He’s not really missing many bats, but he’s walking nobody and keeping the ball in the yard (the latter was a massive issue last year). If there’s a team that can pump your strikeouts, it’s these Braves. Their 22.3% K rate against righties is baseball’s fourth-highest.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Justin Masterson STL (v. CIN) – Seven scoreless hit last time out pushed his ERA with STL down to 6.00 which tells you just how poor the first two outings were for him. He’s having a brutal year without a doubt, but I think we could have some value here because the Reds have been frighteningly inept against righties this year. Their .670 OPS for the season is 25th, but they have been the league’s worst since the break with a .571 mark. Against righties, the Reds have run out four lefty or switch hitters, but Jay Bruce is the only one with real power and he’s having a horrid year (.381 SLG, .681 OPS).
Vidal Nuno ARI (at WAS) – Homers have bitten him most with ARI as his component numbers have otherwise been strong (7.2 K9, 3.9 K:BB ratio) and helped him to a 3.92 ERA despite the 1.2 HR9 rate. The Nats have tumbled against lefties in the second half (.661 OPS, compared to .725 season) with a modest HR output.
Roenis Elias SEA (at PHI) – He’s been vacillating between the high-3.00s and mid-4.00s since about mid-May thanks to some severe inconsistency. He will log two-three good starts and then get hammered. He’ll struggle for three straight and then get going for a three-four game stretch. Just a lot of up-and-down. He has a nice four-game run going since his last bit of trouble, and though he’s failed to complete six in any of them, I’ll take the sparkling ratios and strong K totals (2.08 ERA in 21.7 IP with 26 Ks) which Philly gives him a chance for as a bottom offense v. lefties.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Bud Norris BAL (at CWS) – I know he’s been better of late (2.91 ERA in his last nine), but he’s got a 3.63 ERA in his last four, going more than 6 IP just once. The White Sox are tough… be careful.
- Brandon Workman BOS (v. LAA)
- C.J. Wilson LAA (at BOS)
- Jerome Williams PHI (v. SEA)
- Trevor May MIN (v. KC)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hendricks | 0.259 | 1.32 | 0.267 | 2.84 | 0.235 | 0.670 | 0.250 | 3.75 | 0.221 | 94.75 | 16.5% |
| Colon | 0.293 | 3.95 | 0.321 | 4.32 | 0.232 | 0.666 | 0.298 | 3.51 | 0.261 | 99.68 | 18.2% |
| Elias | 0.292 | 3.45 | 0.325 | 4.40 | 0.245 | 0.691 | 0.293 | 3.97 | 0.243 | 93.68 | 21.6% |
| Williams | 0.386 | 7.34 | 0.364 | 6.00 | 0.243 | 0.687 | 0.361 | 4.33 | 0.314 | 35.46 | 16.5% |
| Santana | 0.346 | 3.89 | 0.261 | 3.26 | 0.260 | 0.740 | 0.316 | 3.12 | 0.252 | 97.71 | 22.1% |
| Worley | 0.299 | 3.24 | 0.258 | 1.76 | 0.241 | 0.663 | 0.270 | 3.46 | 0.243 | 85.00 | 14.3% |
| Nuno | 0.306 | 3.28 | 0.350 | 5.23 | 0.273 | 0.729 | 0.281 | 4.91 | 0.258 | 80.27 | 18.3% |
| Zimmermann | 0.293 | 2.93 | 0.304 | 3.08 | 0.253 | 0.695 | 0.325 | 2.74 | 0.26 | 88.59 | 22.5% |
| Wilson | 0.268 | 4.22 | 0.347 | 4.94 | 0.251 | 0.707 | 0.304 | 4.40 | 0.253 | 103.55 | 21.7% |
| Workman | 0.311 | 4.28 | 0.283 | 3.80 | 0.256 | 0.721 | 0.240 | 4.48 | 0.217 | 75.08 | 17.8% |
| Norris | 0.321 | 3.62 | 0.324 | 3.74 | 0.260 | 0.735 | 0.284 | 4.36 | 0.249 | 99.58 | 17.9% |
| Sale | 0.145 | 0.00 | 0.264 | 2.78 | 0.258 | 0.736 | 0.270 | 2.36 | 0.197 | 104.94 | 29.3% |
| Vargas | 0.312 | 2.43 | 0.313 | 4.13 | 0.253 | 0.701 | 0.291 | 3.99 | 0.261 | 102.15 | 16.1% |
| May | 0.263 | 0.686 | |||||||||
| Leake | 0.367 | 4.41 | 0.279 | 2.79 | 0.250 | 0.678 | 0.302 | 3.68 | 0.26 | 98.91 | 18.4% |
| Masterson | 0.412 | 7.00 | 0.305 | 4.14 | 0.243 | 0.674 | 0.351 | 4.04 | 0.277 | 90.15 | 20.3% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window