Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 20th

The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher TM OPP IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Martinez TEX MIA 83 5.31 5.70 1.65 27.3% 10.2% 10.2% 1.52 0.71
Eovaldi MIA TEX 143 4.22 4.01 1.22 50.0% 16.5% 5.0% 0.69 1.20
Paxton SEA PHI 16.1 2.76 2.62 0.92 50.0% 29.0% 8.1% 1.65 3.00
Hamels PHI SEA 137.1 2.42 3.20 1.11 58.8% 25.1% 7.2% 0.52 1.46
Dickey TOR MIL 152 4.03 3.99 1.28 47.6% 19.8% 8.0% 1.18 1.11
Nelson MIL TOR 30 4.20 3.59 1.23 20.5% 6.8% 0.90 1.62
Wheeler NYM OAK 134.1 3.48 3.60 1.35 55.0% 22.8% 9.7% 0.67 1.96
Samardzija OAK NYM 151.2 2.91 3.32 1.09 60.0% 21.7% 5.9% 0.77 1.67
Cahill ARI WAS 63.1 5.12 3.75 1.59 20.0% 21.2% 9.9% 0.71 1.75
Roark WAS ARI 141 2.94 3.78 1.09 52.6% 18.6% 5.3% 0.70 1.21
Feldman HOU NYY 117.2 4.13 4.74 1.39 47.1% 12.5% 7.2% 0.84 1.28
Pineda NYY HOU 19.2 1.83 4.18 1.02 75.0% 19.5% 3.9% 0.46 0.42
Wood ATL PIT 109.2 3.20 3.30 1.24 58.3% 23.6% 6.6% 0.90 1.25
Cole PIT ATL 85.2 3.78 3.58 1.31 28.6% 21.4% 8.0% 0.84 1.80
Porcello DET TBR 141.1 3.18 3.88 1.12 55.6% 15.8% 5.4% 0.76 1.76
Odorizzi TBR DET 116.2 4.09 3.51 1.35 36.8% 25.8% 8.9% 0.93 0.72
Richards LAA BOS 153.1 2.58 3.22 1.02 65.0% 24.7% 7.8% 0.29 1.75
Buchholz BOS LAA 101.2 6.20 4.40 1.61 33.3% 16.2% 8.2% 1.15 1.28
Cueto CIN STL 171.2 2.04 3.04 0.91 76.2% 25.7% 6.7% 0.68 1.58
Lynn STL CIN 140 2.89 3.84 1.28 60.0% 21.2% 8.9% 0.45 1.41
Peavy SFG CHC 137 4.73 4.21 1.38 42.1% 18.4% 8.1% 1.31 0.98
Jackson CHC SFG 125.2 5.66 4.06 1.57 15.0% 20.5% 9.6% 1.07 1.24
House CLE MIN 55 4.09 3.40 1.51 25.0% 16.1% 6.6% 1.15 3.42
Nolasco MIN CLE 103.2 5.90 4.28 1.62 16.7% 15.7% 6.1% 1.39 1.11
Chen BAL CWS 129.1 3.90 3.81 1.27 31.6% 17.7% 4.2% 1.32 1.13
Noesi CWS BAL 114 4.97 4.47 1.45 26.7% 16.8% 8.8% 1.34 0.99
Duffy KCR COL 109 2.39 4.27 1.10 57.1% 19.7% 9.3% 0.74 0.73
De La Rosa COL KCR 128.2 4.27 4.08 1.27 40.0% 18.2% 8.8% 0.98 1.66
Stults SDP LAD 116.2 4.94 4.43 1.42 26.3% 14.4% 6.2% 1.54 1.17
Hernandez LAD SDP 121 3.87 4.71 1.35 35.3% 14.2% 10.4% 0.82 1.80


Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.

PLATINUM BUYS:

These are aces who don’t really need much explanation at all. They’re expensive, but awesome. If an ace-level arm is struggling a bit or has a tough matchup, he might fall into the gold or silver tiers, but otherwise you’re going to find the Kershaws, Hernandez, and Sales of the world in here.

Cole Hamels PHI [early] (v. SEA)
Johnny Cueto CIN (at STL)
Garrett Richards LAA (at BOS)
Jeff Samardzija OAK [early] (v. NYM)
Lance Lynn STL (v. CIN) – He’s allowed 4+ ER just four times this year; had 14 such occurrences last year including a pair of 7 ER (high of 6 ER this year)

GOLD BUYS:

These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.

zack-wheeler-300x200

Zack Wheeler NYM [early] (at OAK) – Wheeler’s 2013 ERA (3.42) wasn’t much lower than his current mark of 3.49 except this year’s is far more believable when you look at the complete picture. You can go stat-by-stat and see the improvements or just look at the popular ERA indicators. His FIP has gone from 4.17 to 3.54 while his SIERA is down from 4.33 to 3.61. He’s also found a level of consistency that suggests that maybe even his 3.49 ERA is a bit high for the way he’s been pitching, but that can happen when you have a 4.89 ERA through your first nine starts of the season. He had back-to-back 5 ER outings in starts eight and nine, but since then he’s allowed more than 4 ER just once with a 2.77 ERA, 99 Ks, and 2.8 K:BB ratio in 97.3 IP of work (16 starts). The one time he allowed more than 4 ER? Against the A’s on June 25th, but he’s pitching much better since (6+ IP and 3 or fewer ER in each of his nine starts since) and they aren’t hitting nearly as well of late. I like him for a big rebound against Oakland.

Jake Odorizzi TB (v. DET) – It’s hard not to be impressed by the in-season maturation of Odorizzi. He opened the year with a 6.83 ERA in his first six starts (which even included six scoreless in his season debut), but since then he has an even 3.00 ERA in 18 starts with 120 strikeouts and a 3.8 K:BB ratio in 102 IP of work. The Tigers are a tough offense, but they aren’t anywhere near the peak of their powers right now with the 22nd-best wOBA against righties since the break with a 10% increase in strikeouts.

Tanner Roark WAS (v. ARI) – What does he have to do to get some attention? His teammates overshadow him, but Roark has been in the high-2.00s to low-3.00s with his ERA since June 1st thanks to a 2.56 ERA in 14 starts with 70 Ks in 91.3 IP. Arizona’s offense has plummeted without Paul Goldschmidt with a .271 wOBA against righties that ranks as baseball’s second-worst. I usually prefer a stronger strikeout record for Gold Buys, but everything stacks up very nicely for Roark here.

SILVER BUYS:

On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.

Alex Wood ATL (at PIT) – Wood hasn’t allowed more than 4 ER in any of his starts since returning the rotation and he’s only allowed that many twice in 10 starts. He has a 2.73 ERA in 62.7 IP with 57 Ks in that time, though the Braves have turned that into just a 5-5 record. I’ve been really impressed with Wood’s last four as he’s handled three first place clubs (at least at the time) in the form of the Dodgers, A’s, and Nats as well as a heavy wildcard contender in the Mariners. In those four starts he has a 1.71 ERA with 26 Ks in 26.3 IP. The Pirates have been much worse against lefties than righties this year with a .294 wOBA that sits 26th in the league.
Michael Pineda NYY (v. HOU) – In his first start back, he looked quite similar to the guy we saw before his injury that has cost him the overwhelming majority of the season. He only got 67 pitches before being pulled, so he could be limited again today (perhaps somewhere around 85-90), but he got through five innings with those 67 pitches so he could still go six or even seven even with a limited count, especially against this Houston club that can be ice-cold at the drop of a dime.

gerrit-cole-300x200

Gerrit Cole PIT (v. ATL) – It’s his first start since July 4th which makes it tough to put him right back into the Gold tier, especially since his work prior to the injury wasn’t quite as good as expected. Cole got 92 pitches in his last rehab outing (seven scoreless) so he’s unlikely to be as limited as Pineda was in his return, but we still have to be somewhat cautious here. The one thing this Atlanta does seem to do consistently is strikeout so even a five-inning effort could yield a healthy handful of Ks (5-6) so if he limits the runs, he can still score nicely despite being cut off early.

James Paxton SEA [early] (at PHI) – The numbers are impressive not only this year, but in his limited 2013 work. The problem is that it all adds up to just nine starts and 52.7 IP of work so it’s hard to really tab him as a Gold Buy even with a 1.88 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. He’s traded some Ks for much more control, a trade I can support fully. He had a 4.0 BB9 in 377.7 minor league innings, but it’s down to 2.2 as a big leaguer with the strikeout rate dipping from 9.7 to 7.7 in the process. I believe he has the upside to improve the strikeout rate as he gets more and more reps under his belt.

VALUE PLAYS:

These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.

Jake Peavy SF (at CHC) – It’s because he’s facing the Cubs. That’s it. He’s been OK with Giants, trimming his walk, homerun, and hit rates, but also his strikeout rate. I don’t think there is tremendous upside here, even against a weaker offense, but he’s also really cheap.

Roberto Hernandez LAD (v. SD) – Hernandez is an out away from six straight quality starts (5.7 IP/3 ER v. SF in the second of these six) posting a fantastic 1.99 ERA in the 40.7 IP of work, though with just 18 Ks and a very meager 1.8 K:BB ratio (thanks to the lower Ks, because his 2.2 BB9 is very good). The Padres have been much tougher offensively this month with a 4.6 runs per game average, yet I still don’t see them as a team to fear by any stretch of the imagination. They just aren’t the historically bad club they were for the bulk of the season right now.

roberto-hernandez-300x200

Jorge de la Rosa COL (v. KC) – For the second straight season, DLR has been markedly better at home than on the road. Last year it was a split of 1.43 runs (2.76 ERA at home) and this year it’s 2.05, though the home ERA is up to 3.30 in 12 starts. His component numbers are better at home and he once again has a brilliant W-L record at home (8-2, after a 10-1 mark last year). It’s not easy feeling comfortable with someone pitching in Coors for DFS, but if you want to have an original pick, this is it because his usage percentage will NOT be high.

STAYAWAYS:

These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.


Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher wOBA vs L ERA vs L wOBA vs R ERA vs R AVG OPS BABIP FIP AVG-A Pit/G Strk%
Martinez 0.397 4.70 0.359 6.00 0.246 0.690 0.300 5.79 0.296 75.89 10.2%
Eovaldi 0.348 4.71 0.255 3.62 0.252 0.680 0.296 3.51 0.258 98.96 16.5%
Paxton 0.311 3.86 0.245 0.691 0.194 4.24 0.175 80.67 29.0%
Hamels 0.274 2.03 0.277 2.52 0.245 0.637 0.288 2.85 0.22 105.25 25.1%
Dickey 0.319 3.33 0.323 4.59 0.259 0.730 0.275 4.34 0.239 105.08 19.8%
Nelson 0.332 5.63 0.301 2.57 0.271 0.778 0.284 4.04 0.237 96.20 20.5%
Wheeler 0.363 4.71 0.267 2.57 0.254 0.732 0.314 3.53 0.248 101.57 22.8%
Samardzija 0.296 2.17 0.284 3.56 0.235 0.670 0.277 3.39 0.229 100.22 21.7%
Cahill 0.410 8.42 0.295 2.87 0.241 0.687 0.360 3.64 0.287 48.74 21.2%
Roark 0.284 3.21 0.274 2.66 0.253 0.695 0.269 3.41 0.23 97.09 18.6%
Feldman 0.327 2.83 0.347 5.49 0.247 0.692 0.298 4.46 0.274 99.25 12.5%
Pineda 0.308 2.13 0.228 0.666 0.276 2.73 0.23 76.50 19.5%
Wood 0.310 2.25 0.304 3.59 0.245 0.667 0.314 3.39 0.252 66.88 23.6%
Cole 0.331 3.27 0.320 4.26 0.241 0.663 0.307 3.76 0.252 98.43 21.4%
Porcello 0.289 2.82 0.300 3.62 0.252 0.699 0.272 3.65 0.243 98.76 15.8%
Odorizzi 0.322 4.31 0.298 3.81 0.271 0.747 0.317 3.46 0.245 97.41 25.8%
Richards 0.236 2.83 0.251 2.27 0.243 0.685 0.258 2.66 0.195 103.35 24.7%
Buchholz 0.383 5.58 0.342 7.07 0.256 0.721 0.340 4.62 0.3 96.61 16.2%
Cueto 0.244 1.84 0.243 2.23 0.250 0.678 0.228 3.06 0.18 108.00 25.7%
Lynn 0.303 2.52 0.287 3.18 0.243 0.674 0.292 3.22 0.233 104.48 21.2%
Peavy 0.356 5.53 0.333 3.86 0.232 0.666 0.295 4.61 0.262 102.45 18.4%
Jackson 0.396 6.09 0.343 5.32 0.242 0.678 0.349 4.21 0.289 95.61 20.5%
House 0.291 4.19 0.388 4.04 0.253 0.701 0.337 4.41 0.299 82.09 16.1%
Nolasco 0.414 6.70 0.368 5.17 0.262 0.749 0.362 4.57 0.325 97.56 15.7%
Chen 0.331 3.82 0.334 3.92 0.258 0.711 0.304 4.17 0.273 96.55 17.7%
Noesi 0.307 4.43 0.380 5.69 0.256 0.717 0.295 4.81 0.267 78.00 16.8%
Duffy 0.184 1.13 0.292 2.75 0.281 0.796 0.233 3.85 0.199 77.26 19.7%
De La Rosa 0.210 2.45 0.352 4.89 0.261 0.692 0.269 4.32 0.236 95.57 18.2%
Stults 0.332 6.48 0.359 4.32 0.230 0.676 0.295 5.00 0.279 87.14 14.4%
Hernandez 0.299 2.68 0.322 4.81 0.226 0.635 0.256 4.62 0.232 85.74 14.2%


Starting Pitcher Salaries

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

daily%20pitcher%20chart%202

NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window


About the Author

PSporer
PSporer

Paul has been writing about baseball for 15 years at various internet outlets and he’s been an avid fantasy baseballer for 21 of his 33 years on this planet, joining his first league at 12 years old which is still running today. He writes a comprehensive starting pitcher guide each year and it’s now available thespguide.com. When’s he’s not watching baseball, he is sleeping, because why would anyone waste time being awake if they weren’t going to watch baseball? He writes three times a week and has his own podcast at Fangraphs with co-hosts Eno Sarris & Jason Collette, contributes to Rotowire, and he has been a guest co-host with Matthew Berry on ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast.