Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 21st
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keuchel | HOU | NYY | 156.1 | 3.11 | 3.19 | 1.22 | 50.0% | 18.8% | 6.3% | 0.58 | 3.01 |
| McCarthy | NYY | HOU | 152.2 | 4.24 | 2.94 | 1.35 | 35.0% | 21.0% | 4.2% | 1.06 | 2.43 |
| Price | DET | TBR | 193.1 | 3.12 | 2.69 | 1.04 | 52.4% | 27.3% | 3.7% | 1.07 | 1.09 |
| Cobb | TBR | DET | 115.2 | 3.19 | 3.13 | 1.18 | 42.9% | 22.8% | 6.9% | 0.70 | 2.16 |
| Kluber | CLE | MIN | 179.1 | 2.41 | 2.69 | 1.07 | 57.1% | 27.4% | 5.3% | 0.50 | 1.59 |
| Hughes | MIN | CLE | 158 | 3.76 | 3.24 | 1.21 | 45.0% | 21.5% | 2.3% | 0.63 | 0.94 |
| Miley | ARI | WAS | 163.1 | 4.46 | 3.45 | 1.29 | 33.3% | 22.1% | 7.5% | 1.21 | 1.75 |
| Gonzalez | WAS | ARI | 113 | 4.06 | 3.55 | 1.33 | 46.7% | 25.3% | 9.8% | 0.56 | 1.23 |
| Teheran | ATL | CIN | 176.2 | 3.06 | 3.62 | 1.09 | 70.0% | 21.6% | 5.8% | 0.97 | 0.81 |
| Holmberg | CIN | ATL | |||||||||
| Shoemaker | LAA | BOS | 96 | 3.84 | 3.13 | 1.19 | 44.4% | 23.6% | 4.6% | 1.22 | 1.03 |
| De La Rosa | BOS | LAA | 71.1 | 3.79 | 4.32 | 1.40 | 57.1% | 16.5% | 8.6% | 1.14 | 1.51 |
| Bumgarner | SFG | CHC | 169 | 3.14 | 3.08 | 1.14 | 47.6% | 24.3% | 5.4% | 0.75 | 1.41 |
| Wood | CHC | SFG | 144.1 | 4.86 | 4.47 | 1.52 | 30.0% | 18.5% | 10.0% | 0.87 | 0.86 |
| Ross | SDP | LAD | 166.2 | 2.70 | 3.26 | 1.19 | 66.7% | 23.5% | 8.7% | 0.59 | 2.54 |
| Kershaw | LAD | SDP | 145.1 | 1.86 | 1.99 | 0.84 | 66.7% | 32.0% | 3.5% | 0.50 | 1.91 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
PLATINUM BUYS:
These are aces who don’t really need much explanation at all. They’re expensive, but awesome. If an ace-level arm is struggling a bit or has a tough matchup, he might fall into the gold or silver tiers, but otherwise you’re going to find the Kershaws, Hernandez, and Sales of the world in here.
•Corey Kluber CLE [early] (at MIN)
•Julio Teheran ATL (at CIN)
•Clayton Kershaw LAD (v. SD)
•David Price DET [early] (at TB)
•Madison Bumgarner SF (at CHC)
•Tyson Ross SD (at LAD)
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here who are either just on the cusp of the Platinum Tier or dropping down from Platinum because of recent struggles and/or a really tough matchup/venue.
Alex Cobb TB [early] (v. DET) – Cobb struggled to find consistency after returning from the DL, mixing great and awful starts before finally leveling out the last month-plus since early-July. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of his last eight with several excellent outings mixed in en route to a 1.93 ERA in 51.3 IP with 54 Ks and a 4.2 K:BB ratio. His fastball was blasted around the yard in June to the tune of a 1.135 OPS with just three strikeouts (5%) and four homers allowed in 56 PA, but it’s down to a .793 OPS in these last eight with 14 Ks (17%) and just one homer. The run was started with a solid-but-unspectacular 5 IP/3 ER effort against the Tigers back when they were putting runs on the board at a much higher clip. I wouldn’t necessarily consider them easy because of their recent struggles, but they aren’t as tough as they were just six weeks ago.
Brandon McCarthy NYY [early] (v. HOU) – McCarthy has done a lot to show that his xFIP with Arizona (2.90) had some merit as he’s given the Yankees a 2.30 ERA in seven starts. He’s one out short of going at least six innings in each of the seven starts while turning up his strikeout rate (from 7.9 K9 to 9.0 K/9) and cutting his home run rate in half (to 0.6 HR/9). I was personally a bit worried about Yankee Stadium given his tendency for the longball, but while part of his HR9 rate with Arizona was him making mistakes, some of it was also bad luck in the form of a 20% HR/FB rate. That figure is down to 9.4% with the Yankees, which isn’t too far from the 9.9% league average for starters.
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.
Phil Hughes MIN [early] (v. CLE) – I’ve been a Hughes believer all year, but even with him getting back on track in a big way, I have to downgrade him against Cleveland. They have routinely pasted righties all season, sitting third in wOBA at .322 on the season and seventh against the cutter (.358), Hughes’ best pitch. Hughes has avoided his division maters all year long, but he has faced the other three AL stalwarts versus righties (TOR, OAK, and DET) at least twice apiece and found some of success (1 good, 1 bad against both TOR and OAK; 2 good against DET). I’m not completely running from him, but I can probably find someone I’m more comfortable with at equal or lesser cost.
Wade Miley ARI [early] (at WAS) – Miley has bounced back with two strong outings after a 10-run massacre at the hands of the Royals. He’s allowed just four earned in 13 innings with 17 strikeouts and just three walks. When he has been on, he’s been fantastic which is evidenced by the fact that he still has a 3.88 ERA in his last nine even with the 10 ER disaster in there. The Nats have hit the skids against lefties since the break with a .290 wOBA (24th), but they still sit 10th in the league on the year at .316.
Gio Gonzalez WAS [early] (v. ARI) – Gonzalez got on a roll shortly after returning from the DL, but he has hit a rough patch in his last seven starts. He’s gone more than 5 IP in just three of those starts en route to a 5.20 ERA in 36.3 IP. However, I have some optimism because he’s still missing a ton of bats (43 Ks). Granted, he is also walking too many (17) and giving up too many hits (41), but his velocity hasn’t moved an inch and his stuff still looks killer in spurts. He has .400 BABIPs on the curve and changeup during this run, which again is on him a bit, but also some misfortune that is sure to regress if he continues to pitch like this. The strikeouts offer some protection even in the event of a modest effort otherwise.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Dallas Keuchel HOU [early] (at NYY) – Value is relative and with a short afternoon slate that includes a bunch of studs and a couple of mid-tier guys pitching very well of late, Keuchel ends up down near the bottom. He’s the cheapest at DraftKings, third-cheapest at FanDuel, and fourth-cheapest at DraftDay, to name a few. All are very reasonable prices. For his part, Keuchel has been throwing the ball quite well of late with a 2.50 ERA in his last five starts (36 IP). Five of his 10 ER came in one start against Texas when he just seemed to lose it a bit after a dominant start to the outing that saw him throw three near-perfect (1 BB) innings before six hits and two more walks led to the runs over the next three innings.
Matt Shoemaker LAA (at BOS) – Shoemaker’s role got a little bigger on Wednesday night whether he wants it or not. The injury to Garrett Richards puts more onus on the rest of the rotation, meaning Shoemaker will need to stay hot for the Angels hold off Oakland. He’s been a remarkably valuable swingman this year and he’s really taken off since an 8 ER smashing at KC back on June 27th. Since then he has a 3.00 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 42 IP (6 GS, 2 relief app.) with 40 strikeouts and just six walks. He’s been missing bats all year and it hasn’t just been overly influenced by his relief work. In fact, he’s a tick higher in strikeout rate as a starter at 8.7 K9 in 81.3 IP compared to 8.6 in 14.7 IP as a reliever. Just don’t elevate the ball, particularly to David Ortiz, and you’ll be fine! Shoemaker is still holding a distinct platoon split, even in this recent run, with an .850 OPS against lefties compared to .547 v. RHB.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Rubby de la Rosa BOS (v. LAA)
- Travis Wood CHC (v. SF)
- David Holmberg CIN (v. ATL)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keuchel | 0.286 | 2.63 | 0.311 | 3.28 | 0.261 | 0.715 | 0.306 | 3.32 | 0.255 | 102.83 | 18.8% |
| McCarthy | 0.346 | 4.25 | 0.317 | 4.24 | 0.233 | 0.681 | 0.345 | 3.46 | 0.289 | 94.72 | 21.0% |
| Price | 0.292 | 3.54 | 0.281 | 2.98 | 0.263 | 0.739 | 0.293 | 3.02 | 0.231 | 111.46 | 27.3% |
| Cobb | 0.263 | 3.20 | 0.314 | 3.18 | 0.269 | 0.742 | 0.295 | 3.31 | 0.236 | 95.42 | 22.8% |
| Kluber | 0.302 | 2.65 | 0.234 | 2.16 | 0.248 | 0.711 | 0.305 | 2.38 | 0.226 | 102.54 | 27.4% |
| Hughes | 0.282 | 2.80 | 0.334 | 4.84 | 0.259 | 0.743 | 0.343 | 2.61 | 0.278 | 94.72 | 21.5% |
| Miley | 0.323 | 5.50 | 0.322 | 4.19 | 0.268 | 0.721 | 0.298 | 4.04 | 0.25 | 99.15 | 22.1% |
| Gonzalez | 0.299 | 5.54 | 0.311 | 3.62 | 0.253 | 0.700 | 0.318 | 3.10 | 0.24 | 97.55 | 25.3% |
| Teheran | 0.301 | 3.63 | 0.268 | 2.47 | 0.242 | 0.670 | 0.270 | 3.55 | 0.229 | 100.54 | 21.6% |
| Holmberg | 0.263 | 0.738 | |||||||||
| Shoemaker | 0.353 | 4.47 | 0.286 | 3.26 | 0.243 | 0.679 | 0.310 | 3.58 | 0.257 | 71.81 | 23.6% |
| De La Rosa | 0.359 | 4.05 | 0.335 | 3.45 | 0.254 | 0.717 | 0.300 | 4.55 | 0.268 | 99.75 | 16.5% |
| Bumgarner | 0.246 | 2.11 | 0.305 | 3.49 | 0.268 | 0.750 | 0.304 | 2.97 | 0.24 | 101.65 | 24.3% |
| Wood | 0.268 | 3.74 | 0.365 | 5.35 | 0.249 | 0.700 | 0.318 | 4.21 | 0.268 | 99.64 | 18.5% |
| Ross | 0.283 | 3.07 | 0.288 | 2.31 | 0.266 | 0.732 | 0.285 | 3.27 | 0.223 | 101.27 | 23.5% |
| Kershaw | 0.168 | 0.32 | 0.252 | 2.22 | 0.222 | 0.632 | 0.278 | 1.87 | 0.197 | 99.00 | 32.0% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window