Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 23rd
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carroll | CWS | NYY | 97.1 | 4.99 | 4.49 | 1.52 | 33.3% | 11.6% | 8.1% | 1.02 | 2.12 |
| Kuroda | NYY | CWS | 154 | 3.97 | 3.96 | 1.20 | 45.0% | 15.8% | 5.0% | 0.94 | 1.46 |
| Hellickson | TBR | TOR | 31.2 | 2.56 | 4.09 | 1.17 | 19.1% | 6.1% | 0.85 | 0.65 | |
| Buehrle | TOR | TBR | 154.2 | 3.38 | 4.48 | 1.41 | 60.0% | 13.8% | 6.0% | 0.76 | 1.15 |
| Young | SEA | BOS | 146.2 | 3.07 | 5.21 | 1.11 | 47.4% | 15.5% | 7.9% | 1.17 | 0.39 |
| Workman | BOS | SEA | 69.2 | 4.26 | 4.33 | 1.25 | 25.0% | 18.2% | 9.3% | 1.16 | 0.99 |
| Lincecum | SFG | WAS | 142.2 | 4.48 | 3.87 | 1.37 | 40.0% | 21.0% | 9.5% | 1.01 | 1.63 |
| Zimmermann | WAS | SFG | 151.2 | 2.97 | 3.27 | 1.15 | 52.6% | 21.4% | 3.9% | 0.59 | 1.31 |
| Norris | BAL | CHC | 127 | 3.69 | 4.06 | 1.21 | 26.7% | 18.2% | 7.2% | 0.92 | 1.16 |
| Hendricks | CHC | BAL | 48.2 | 1.66 | 4.01 | 0.97 | 15.5% | 5.9% | 0.55 | 1.65 | |
| McHugh | HOU | CLE | 114 | 3.00 | 3.23 | 1.10 | 42.9% | 26.7% | 8.4% | 0.87 | 1.18 |
| Salazar | CLE | HOU | 67.2 | 4.79 | 3.56 | 1.46 | 12.5% | 24.4% | 8.0% | 1.33 | 0.71 |
| Miller | STL | PHI | 139.2 | 4.25 | 4.84 | 1.39 | 21.1% | 15.9% | 10.7% | 1.10 | 1.01 |
| Buchanan | PHI | STL | 78.1 | 4.25 | 3.98 | 1.28 | 20.0% | 15.8% | 5.7% | 1.03 | 1.61 |
| Volquez | PIT | MIL | 146 | 3.58 | 4.31 | 1.27 | 50.0% | 16.2% | 8.6% | 0.92 | 1.56 |
| Peralta | MIL | PIT | 157 | 3.32 | 3.75 | 1.28 | 47.4% | 17.6% | 7.0% | 1.09 | 2.03 |
| Santana | ATL | CIN | 155.1 | 3.71 | 3.55 | 1.28 | 38.9% | 22.1% | 7.4% | 0.75 | 1.42 |
| Leake | CIN | ATL | 172.2 | 3.65 | 3.46 | 1.26 | 45.0% | 18.4% | 5.3% | 0.89 | 2.06 |
| Guthrie | KCR | TEX | 158.2 | 4.48 | 4.30 | 1.34 | 42.1% | 15.4% | 6.0% | 1.19 | 1.09 |
| Tepesch | TEX | KCR | 86.2 | 4.15 | 4.93 | 1.32 | 27.3% | 12.1% | 7.7% | 1.14 | 1.10 |
| Koehler | MIA | COL | 148.1 | 3.82 | 4.22 | 1.26 | 52.6% | 18.6% | 8.8% | 0.73 | 1.14 |
| Lyles | COL | MIA | 85.1 | 4.01 | 4.04 | 1.30 | 58.3% | 17.2% | 8.9% | 0.84 | 2.18 |
| Verlander | DET | MIN | 158.2 | 4.76 | 4.34 | 1.42 | 35.0% | 17.0% | 7.9% | 0.91 | 1.03 |
| May | MIN | DET | |||||||||
| Cashner | SDP | ARI | 76.1 | 2.36 | 3.67 | 1.19 | 75.0% | 18.4% | 6.9% | 0.24 | 2.03 |
| Nuno | ARI | SDP | 124 | 4.79 | 4.06 | 1.31 | 18.8% | 18.6% | 6.8% | 1.52 | 0.86 |
| Wilson | LAA | OAK | 135.1 | 4.59 | 4.00 | 1.42 | 42.1% | 20.8% | 10.5% | 1.00 | 1.73 |
| Lester | OAK | LAA | 170.2 | 2.58 | 3.05 | 1.11 | 65.0% | 25.3% | 5.5% | 0.58 | 1.19 |
| Degrom | NYM | LAD | 100.1 | 2.87 | 3.57 | 1.23 | 50.0% | 22.9% | 8.1% | 0.54 | 1.31 |
| Greinke | LAD | NYM | 157.1 | 2.75 | 2.77 | 1.16 | 50.0% | 26.4% | 5.4% | 0.92 | 1.71 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Zack Greinke LAD (v. NYM) – Apparently Greinke has been pitching through an arm issue which was zapping some of his velocity. He was back in the mid 90s last time out and he went 5 innings allowing no runs but walked 5 batters. He is just 1-3 since the break but has a 2.79 ERA with 43 strikeouts in 38 2/3 innings pitched holding the opposition to a .212 average. Tonight he will be facing the Mets who own the lowest team wOBA in the second half setting him up for a big game.
Jon Lester OAK (v. LAA) – Lester has been great all season but has stepped it up even more in the second half. He is 4-1 in 6 starts with a 2.38 ERA and 40 strikeouts in 41 2/3 innings since the break holding opponents to a .225 batting average. He will be at home facing an Angels team who ranks in the bottom 5 in wOBA since the break. Lester has high strikeout upside and couldn’t ask for a better time to face the Angels.
Jordan Zimmermann WAS (v. SFG) – Zimmermann is one of those pitchers who has been very good on the season and nobody in the media really talks about him. He is 2-0 with a 2.79 ERA since the All-Star break holding opponents to a .232 batting average. His strikeout potential is somewhat limited but nothing that should prevent you from putting him in your lineups. He will face a Giants team who ranks from the middle to lower tier in most major statistics vR on the season.
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.
Ervin Santana ATL (at CIN) – Remember when Santana started the season at a blistering pace? Well he is doing it again coming out of the break. He leads the league in second half wins with 6 and has struck out 45 batters in 45 1/3 innings pitched. Last night Mike Minor was able to take a no hitter pretty deep into the game against the Reds and Santana is capable of doing the same thing considering they have the second worst wOBA in the second half.
Andrew Cashner SDP (at ARI) – This will be his first start since June 18th so there is a good amount of risk with this pick. I was not able to find anything on what kind of pitch count we are looking at today. What we do know is that Cashner is a very good pitcher and was not getting any help from his offense in the first half. Now that the Padres are hitting he should see a bump in value. He has a 2.36 ERA on the season with a 1.19 WHIP and has held the opposition to a .238 batting average. The D-Backs are certainly a good team to face in your first start back considering their hitting woes this season.
Jeremy Hellickson TBR (at TOR) – He has a couple of things working against him here in that he is on the road and will be facing a tough offense in the Blue Jays. With that said he is pitching very well so far this year holding opponents to a .238 batting average while seeing a slight uptick in his K rate. The Rays offense has not helped him out much as you can see by his 1-2 record but with a 2.56 ERA he is keeping his team in the game and today he makes a solid play against the grain.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Collin McHugh HOU (at CLE) – McHugh has been great in his last 4 starts surrendering just 1 earned run in each start and pitching at least 6 innings. He is 2-1 since the break with a 2.27 ERA and 31 strikeouts in 31 2/3 innings pitched. Another thing that stands out with McHugh is his 1.82 ERA in 9 away games compared to his 4.07 ERA in 10 home games. Today he will be on the road so a lot of the numbers point to a good game from the Astros righty.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
Trevor May MIN (v. DET)
Scott Carroll CWS (at NYY)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carroll | 0.385 | 4.55 | 0.322 | 5.68 | 0.244 | 0.682 | 0.312 | 4.93 | 0.291 | 78.80 | 11.6% |
| Kuroda | 0.311 | 4.08 | 0.302 | 3.84 | 0.256 | 0.723 | 0.281 | 3.90 | 0.252 | 98.16 | 15.8% |
| Hellickson | 0.255 | 2.66 | 0.340 | 2.38 | 0.268 | 0.765 | 0.277 | 3.64 | 0.238 | 93.17 | 19.1% |
| Buehrle | 0.331 | 2.41 | 0.338 | 3.72 | 0.257 | 0.726 | 0.319 | 3.85 | 0.286 | 97.20 | 13.8% |
| Young | 0.333 | 3.18 | 0.245 | 2.94 | 0.242 | 0.675 | 0.224 | 4.59 | 0.213 | 93.92 | 15.5% |
| Workman | 0.320 | 4.08 | 0.293 | 4.50 | 0.246 | 0.695 | 0.254 | 4.50 | 0.228 | 72.80 | 18.2% |
| Lincecum | 0.333 | 4.43 | 0.331 | 4.52 | 0.244 | 0.696 | 0.299 | 4.08 | 0.25 | 94.15 | 21.0% |
| Zimmermann | 0.300 | 3.24 | 0.284 | 2.68 | 0.245 | 0.678 | 0.314 | 2.80 | 0.255 | 88.88 | 21.4% |
| Norris | 0.308 | 3.24 | 0.319 | 4.18 | 0.229 | 0.657 | 0.280 | 4.13 | 0.243 | 99.14 | 18.2% |
| Hendricks | 0.289 | 2.14 | 0.211 | 1.30 | 0.257 | 0.724 | 0.232 | 3.54 | 0.207 | 96.57 | 15.5% |
| McHugh | 0.287 | 2.59 | 0.269 | 3.51 | 0.259 | 0.742 | 0.263 | 3.37 | 0.205 | 100.16 | 26.7% |
| Salazar | 0.306 | 3.64 | 0.384 | 5.68 | 0.232 | 0.676 | 0.344 | 4.09 | 0.276 | 92.92 | 24.4% |
| Miller | 0.330 | 4.90 | 0.326 | 3.70 | 0.242 | 0.660 | 0.270 | 4.77 | 0.245 | 89.36 | 15.9% |
| Buchanan | 0.258 | 2.67 | 0.363 | 5.44 | 0.254 | 0.687 | 0.289 | 4.19 | 0.26 | 94.69 | 15.8% |
| Volquez | 0.315 | 3.96 | 0.302 | 3.28 | 0.258 | 0.729 | 0.265 | 4.35 | 0.237 | 91.68 | 16.2% |
| Peralta | 0.356 | 5.12 | 0.272 | 1.58 | 0.260 | 0.741 | 0.286 | 4.18 | 0.254 | 100.32 | 17.6% |
| Santana | 0.348 | 3.87 | 0.284 | 3.54 | 0.242 | 0.668 | 0.320 | 3.37 | 0.258 | 96.88 | 22.1% |
| Leake | 0.360 | 4.24 | 0.287 | 3.20 | 0.242 | 0.667 | 0.304 | 3.71 | 0.261 | 98.85 | 18.4% |
| Guthrie | 0.365 | 5.23 | 0.284 | 3.43 | 0.252 | 0.676 | 0.299 | 4.55 | 0.272 | 102.68 | 15.4% |
| Tepesch | 0.323 | 4.25 | 0.361 | 4.01 | 0.263 | 0.689 | 0.270 | 4.88 | 0.258 | 86.56 | 12.1% |
| Koehler | 0.271 | 3.09 | 0.333 | 4.65 | 0.276 | 0.762 | 0.276 | 3.87 | 0.234 | 90.96 | 18.6% |
| Lyles | 0.361 | 3.95 | 0.281 | 4.07 | 0.247 | 0.696 | 0.280 | 4.20 | 0.244 | 94.40 | 17.2% |
| Verlander | 0.304 | 3.34 | 0.379 | 6.85 | 0.248 | 0.710 | 0.309 | 4.07 | 0.269 | 106.12 | 17.0% |
| May | 0.267 | 0.739 | |||||||||
| Cashner | 0.309 | 3.38 | 0.243 | 1.62 | 0.250 | 0.686 | 0.284 | 2.83 | 0.232 | 95.17 | 18.4% |
| Nuno | 0.301 | 3.73 | 0.350 | 5.15 | 0.219 | 0.623 | 0.288 | 4.70 | 0.261 | 80.00 | 18.6% |
| Wilson | 0.280 | 4.17 | 0.343 | 4.74 | 0.239 | 0.701 | 0.308 | 4.34 | 0.255 | 103.96 | 20.8% |
| Lester | 0.299 | 2.06 | 0.278 | 2.74 | 0.276 | 0.776 | 0.305 | 2.67 | 0.235 | 109.12 | 25.3% |
| Degrom | 0.311 | 1.98 | 0.280 | 3.49 | 0.265 | 0.729 | 0.304 | 3.05 | 0.239 | 102.19 | 22.9% |
| Greinke | 0.292 | 2.45 | 0.295 | 2.98 | 0.234 | 0.664 | 0.314 | 3.00 | 0.244 | 100.64 | 26.4% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window
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