Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 24th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sale | CWS | NYY | 136 | 2.12 | 2.53 | 0.92 | 64.3% | 29.9% | 4.9% | 0.60 | 1.06 |
| Capuano | NYY | CWS | 62 | 4.35 | 3.49 | 1.42 | 22.0% | 7.9% | 0.58 | 1.24 | |
| Oberholtzer | HOU | CLE | 110 | 4.01 | 4.28 | 1.33 | 41.7% | 15.6% | 4.9% | 0.82 | 0.84 |
| Bauer | CLE | HOU | 112.1 | 4.41 | 3.96 | 1.41 | 38.5% | 21.6% | 8.8% | 0.96 | 0.79 |
| Archer | TBR | TOR | 150.1 | 3.17 | 3.71 | 1.30 | 55.0% | 22.1% | 9.3% | 0.36 | 1.66 |
| Hutchison | TOR | TBR | 144 | 4.81 | 3.95 | 1.31 | 31.6% | 20.6% | 7.6% | 1.13 | 0.79 |
| Harang | ATL | CIN | 162 | 3.50 | 4.39 | 1.40 | 75.0% | 17.2% | 8.5% | 0.61 | 1.04 |
| Simon | CIN | ATL | 153.1 | 3.35 | 4.24 | 1.20 | 63.2% | 14.7% | 6.6% | 1.12 | 1.59 |
| Iwakuma | SEA | BOS | 147 | 2.57 | 2.94 | 0.95 | 60.0% | 21.4% | 2.1% | 0.86 | 1.66 |
| Webster | BOS | SEA | 26.2 | 4.73 | 6.09 | 1.46 | 11.2% | 15.5% | 0.34 | 1.27 | |
| Vogelsong | SFG | WAS | 144.2 | 3.73 | 3.89 | 1.25 | 52.6% | 19.4% | 6.4% | 0.75 | 0.96 |
| Strasburg | WAS | SFG | 171.1 | 3.41 | 2.67 | 1.17 | 52.4% | 28.2% | 5.4% | 1.00 | 1.47 |
| Masterson | STL | PHI | 118 | 5.64 | 3.98 | 1.63 | 36.8% | 19.8% | 11.8% | 0.69 | 3.06 |
| Williams | PHI | STL | 70 | 5.91 | 3.95 | 1.54 | 16.2% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 1.46 | |
| Worley | PIT | MIL | 74 | 2.92 | 3.70 | 1.19 | 40.0% | 16.7% | 4.3% | 0.97 | 1.60 |
| Fiers | MIL | PIT | 28 | 1.29 | 2.57 | 0.71 | 29.7% | 5.9% | 0.64 | 1.00 | |
| Scherzer | DET | MIN | 176 | 3.07 | 2.88 | 1.13 | 60.0% | 28.8% | 6.9% | 0.77 | 0.88 |
| Gibson | MIN | DET | 139.1 | 4.13 | 4.22 | 1.25 | 52.6% | 13.4% | 6.9% | 0.58 | 1.95 |
| Gonzalez | BAL | CHC | 113.2 | 3.80 | 4.51 | 1.41 | 40.0% | 16.2% | 8.3% | 1.58 | 0.94 |
| Wada | CHC | BAL | 39.1 | 2.75 | 3.75 | 1.17 | 20.5% | 6.2% | 0.92 | 0.91 | |
| Vargas | KCR | TEX | 150.1 | 3.17 | 4.12 | 1.18 | 68.4% | 16.0% | 4.9% | 0.90 | 1.03 |
| Baker | TEX | KCR | 61 | 5.75 | 4.06 | 1.21 | 25.0% | 16.9% | 4.3% | 1.33 | 0.56 |
| Hand | MIA | COL | 79.2 | 4.52 | 4.68 | 1.39 | 33.3% | 14.0% | 9.3% | 0.90 | 1.38 |
| Bergman | COL | MIA | 15 | 7.20 | 4.11 | 1.67 | 33.3% | 14.3% | 2.9% | 3.00 | 1.10 |
| Kennedy | SDP | ARI | 157.1 | 3.72 | 3.34 | 1.26 | 47.6% | 25.5% | 8.2% | 0.69 | 1.14 |
| Anderson | ARI | SDP | 87.1 | 3.71 | 3.96 | 1.37 | 40.0% | 20.4% | 8.3% | 1.24 | 1.06 |
| Colon | NYM | LAD | 161.1 | 3.85 | 3.64 | 1.15 | 42.1% | 18.8% | 3.2% | 0.95 | 0.94 |
| Correia | LAD | NYM | 140.1 | 4.87 | 4.72 | 1.45 | 45.0% | 11.7% | 5.5% | 0.90 | 1.12 |
| Weaver | LAA | OAK | 167.2 | 3.70 | 4.38 | 1.23 | 52.4% | 18.0% | 7.7% | 1.07 | 0.68 |
| Kazmir | OAK | LAA | 155 | 2.73 | 3.50 | 1.06 | 63.2% | 21.3% | 5.9% | 0.75 | 1.25 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
PLATINUM BUYS:
These are aces who don’t really need much explanation at all. They’re expensive, but awesome. If an ace-level arm is struggling a bit or has a tough matchup, he might fall into the gold or silver tiers, but otherwise you’re going to find the Kershaws, Hernandez, and Sales of the world in here.
Chris Sale CWS (at NYY)
Stephen Strasburg WAS (v. SFG)
Max Scherzer DET (at MIN)
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (at BOS) – With 3 legit aces on the mound today Iwakuma might get overlooked but that could be a mistake considering his production lately. In 7 starts since the All-Star break he has gone 4-2 with a 1.79 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. His strikeout potential is somewhat limited which could be the biggest issue when considering the Mariner righty.
Mike Fiers MIL (v. PIT) – Fiers has filled in quite nicely for Matt Garza going 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA and 0.52 WHIP in his 3 starts. Sure those video game numbers are not likely to continue in that form but what it does show is that he is more than capable to dominate lineups. His 25 strikeouts in 21 innings pitched also give us a good indication that we can rely on him to have a decent K rate.
Scott Kazmir OAK (v. LAA) – The Angels have not been a good hitting team since the break and Kazmir has been exceptional this season. He had a couple of rough games with the Royals and Twins to start August but has been really good outside of that since the break. On the year he is now 14-5 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.06 WHIP add in his decent K rate and you have a solid play tonight.
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.
Chris Archer TBR (at TOR) – The whole Rays rotation has stepped up since the David Price deal posting some great numbers across the board. Archer has gone 3-1 in 6 starts since the break with a 2.43 ERA while holding opponents to a .229 batting average. Probably the most important is that he is consistently striking batters out tapping into that potential we saw when he first got the call.
Bartolo Colon NYM (at LAD) – It almost feels wrong putting Colon here but the numbers suggest he is a good play. Outside of a really rough outing against the Giants he has been really consistent in his last 5 starts with 7 innings pitched and allowing 2 or fewer runs while striking out at least 5 batters. You always have the added bonus of watching the game and his at bats which don’t count for anything but should at least make you smile.
Ian Kennedy SDP (at ARI) – He had a rough outing in LA on Tuesday allowing 5 earned in just 5 innings pitched to the Dodgers. Kennedy is not a superstar by any means but does offer a great K rate and should be able to handle this Diamondbacks squad. On the year he has 168 strikeouts in 157 1/3 innings pitched which is a key stat putting him in play today.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Miguel Gonzalez BAL (at CHC) – Well the Orioles decided to get it right bringing Gonzalez back into the rotation. He has a great matchup with the Cubs today and was pitching well before the demotion. In 4 starts since the break he was 2-1 with a 2.92 ERA holding opponents to a .237 batting average. There is some concern with his lower strikeout numbers in that time frame but he has never been a huge K guy to begin with.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
Scott Baker TEX (v. KCR)
Brad Hand MIA (at COL)
Christian Bergman COL (v. MIA)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sale | 0.160 | 0.00 | 0.270 | 2.73 | 0.261 | 0.713 | 0.275 | 2.42 | 0.2 | 106.35 | 29.9% |
| Capuano | 0.367 | 6.65 | 0.301 | 3.12 | 0.256 | 0.700 | 0.332 | 3.21 | 0.262 | 31.76 | 22.0% |
| Oberholtzer | 0.319 | 3.33 | 0.323 | 4.23 | 0.241 | 0.654 | 0.314 | 3.67 | 0.278 | 95.00 | 15.6% |
| Bauer | 0.327 | 4.83 | 0.335 | 4.01 | 0.231 | 0.675 | 0.320 | 3.93 | 0.262 | 100.47 | 21.6% |
| Archer | 0.274 | 2.81 | 0.309 | 3.63 | 0.268 | 0.765 | 0.306 | 3.07 | 0.238 | 98.40 | 22.1% |
| Hutchison | 0.357 | 6.44 | 0.285 | 2.80 | 0.248 | 0.689 | 0.294 | 4.07 | 0.25 | 94.52 | 20.6% |
| Harang | 0.353 | 3.27 | 0.288 | 3.69 | 0.241 | 0.666 | 0.310 | 3.65 | 0.263 | 103.50 | 17.2% |
| Simon | 0.316 | 3.74 | 0.293 | 2.95 | 0.242 | 0.668 | 0.258 | 4.53 | 0.241 | 93.52 | 14.7% |
| Iwakuma | 0.285 | 2.79 | 0.228 | 2.33 | 0.241 | 0.674 | 0.272 | 2.98 | 0.231 | 94.67 | 21.4% |
| Webster | 0.296 | 2.63 | 0.364 | 6.92 | 0.246 | 0.695 | 0.247 | 5.00 | 0.221 | 85.00 | 11.2% |
| Vogelsong | 0.344 | 4.05 | 0.298 | 3.46 | 0.244 | 0.696 | 0.302 | 3.57 | 0.254 | 95.36 | 19.4% |
| Strasburg | 0.291 | 2.75 | 0.312 | 3.94 | 0.246 | 0.680 | 0.325 | 3.00 | 0.247 | 98.89 | 28.2% |
| Masterson | 0.403 | 6.68 | 0.322 | 4.55 | 0.242 | 0.659 | 0.343 | 4.29 | 0.276 | 88.91 | 19.8% |
| Williams | 0.386 | 6.69 | 0.325 | 5.08 | 0.254 | 0.687 | 0.338 | 4.32 | 0.296 | 38.63 | 16.2% |
| Worley | 0.329 | 3.24 | 0.284 | 2.66 | 0.258 | 0.729 | 0.290 | 3.77 | 0.259 | 87.83 | 16.7% |
| Fiers | 0.207 | 1.32 | 0.195 | 1.26 | 0.260 | 0.743 | 0.190 | 2.56 | 0.147 | 62.29 | 29.7% |
| Scherzer | 0.306 | 3.74 | 0.264 | 2.16 | 0.249 | 0.716 | 0.308 | 2.81 | 0.228 | 109.31 | 28.8% |
| Gibson | 0.316 | 3.91 | 0.271 | 4.41 | 0.267 | 0.739 | 0.275 | 3.73 | 0.248 | 90.42 | 13.4% |
| Gonzalez | 0.358 | 3.09 | 0.349 | 4.71 | 0.230 | 0.659 | 0.288 | 5.30 | 0.268 | 93.45 | 16.2% |
| Wada | 0.337 | 3.31 | 0.262 | 0.755 | 0.283 | 3.61 | 0.24 | 92.00 | 20.5% | ||
| Vargas | 0.301 | 2.35 | 0.299 | 3.46 | 0.266 | 0.738 | 0.281 | 3.81 | 0.252 | 102.04 | 16.0% |
| Baker | 0.341 | 6.00 | 0.328 | 5.52 | 0.263 | 0.689 | 0.284 | 4.28 | 0.26 | 43.19 | 16.9% |
| Hand | 0.286 | 4.63 | 0.342 | 4.47 | 0.281 | 0.804 | 0.278 | 4.44 | 0.254 | 50.38 | 14.0% |
| Bergman | 0.248 | 0.698 | 0.340 | 6.53 | 0.338 | 0.00 | 14.3% | ||||
| Kennedy | 0.302 | 2.94 | 0.314 | 4.34 | 0.250 | 0.686 | 0.316 | 3.09 | 0.241 | 103.65 | 25.5% |
| Anderson | 0.274 | 2.25 | 0.394 | 4.94 | 0.229 | 0.639 | 0.307 | 4.31 | 0.263 | 92.88 | 20.4% |
| Colon | 0.284 | 3.68 | 0.320 | 4.05 | 0.265 | 0.731 | 0.297 | 3.40 | 0.257 | 99.54 | 18.8% |
| Correia | 0.345 | 4.00 | 0.341 | 5.86 | 0.234 | 0.663 | 0.315 | 4.23 | 0.292 | 91.40 | 11.7% |
| Weaver | 0.320 | 3.74 | 0.283 | 3.65 | 0.254 | 0.731 | 0.268 | 4.23 | 0.238 | 98.04 | 18.0% |
| Kazmir | 0.264 | 2.68 | 0.276 | 2.75 | 0.277 | 0.777 | 0.267 | 3.30 | 0.223 | 95.12 | 21.3% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window
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