Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 25th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odorizzi | TBR | BAL | 136.1 | 3.83 | 3.37 | 1.26 | 36.8% | 26.4% | 8.3% | 0.86 | 0.67 |
| Tillman | BAL | TBR | 164.2 | 3.55 | 4.38 | 1.23 | 42.9% | 16.4% | 7.8% | 0.93 | 1.07 |
| Lackey | STL | PIT | 162.1 | 3.88 | 3.61 | 1.26 | 57.9% | 19.8% | 5.6% | 1.11 | 1.37 |
| Liriano | PIT | STL | 118.1 | 4.18 | 3.59 | 1.35 | 12.5% | 24.8% | 11.1% | 0.91 | 2.02 |
| Roark | WAS | PHI | 160.2 | 2.80 | 3.86 | 1.09 | 52.6% | 18.2% | 5.6% | 0.67 | 1.18 |
| Burnett | PHI | WAS | 171 | 4.42 | 4.08 | 1.41 | 38.1% | 19.4% | 10.2% | 0.79 | 1.83 |
| Buchholz | BOS | TOR | 122.2 | 5.94 | 4.18 | 1.55 | 33.3% | 17.6% | 8.0% | 1.10 | 1.30 |
| Happ | TOR | BOS | 112.2 | 4.39 | 4.17 | 1.42 | 30.8% | 19.0% | 8.6% | 1.12 | 0.98 |
| Samardzija | OAK | HOU | 167.2 | 3.27 | 3.35 | 1.15 | 60.0% | 21.3% | 5.8% | 0.81 | 1.69 |
| Feldman | HOU | OAK | 136 | 4.37 | 4.58 | 1.43 | 47.1% | 13.2% | 7.1% | 0.86 | 1.39 |
| Cosart | MIA | LAA | 134.2 | 4.14 | 4.43 | 1.40 | 31.6% | 14.3% | 9.7% | 0.47 | 2.14 |
| LeBlanc | LAA | MIA | |||||||||
| Lohse | MIL | SDP | 159.2 | 3.49 | 4.01 | 1.18 | 50.0% | 17.1% | 5.1% | 1.01 | 1.02 |
| Stults | SDP | MIL | 135 | 4.53 | 4.33 | 1.36 | 26.3% | 14.7% | 5.8% | 1.40 | 1.18 |
| Mikolas | TEX | SEA | 49.1 | 7.48 | 4.58 | 1.58 | 14.4% | 7.4% | 1.46 | 1.11 | |
| Elias | SEA | TEX | 138.2 | 4.09 | 3.89 | 1.28 | 26.3% | 21.5% | 9.2% | 0.97 | 1.24 |
| Matzek | COL | SFG | 77 | 5.38 | 4.45 | 1.52 | 25.0% | 15.6% | 8.8% | 0.94 | 1.48 |
| Peavy | SFG | COL | 156.2 | 4.48 | 4.22 | 1.39 | 42.1% | 18.3% | 8.0% | 1.26 | 0.95 |
| Pineda | NYY | KCR | 30.2 | 2.05 | 3.91 | 0.88 | 75.0% | 18.8% | 3.4% | 0.29 | 0.63 |
| Shields | KCR | NYY | 178.1 | 3.28 | 3.62 | 1.23 | 42.9% | 19.2% | 4.8% | 0.96 | 1.30 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
PLATINUM BUYS:
These are aces who don’t really need much explanation at all. They’re expensive, but awesome. If an ace-level arm is struggling a bit or has a tough matchup, he might fall into the gold or silver tiers, but otherwise you’re going to find the Kershaws, Hernandez, and Sales of the world in here.
NONE TODAY!
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Tanner Roark WAS (at PHI) – Roark has been remarkably consistent in his first full year as a starter in the majors. He isn’t an overpowering pitcher, but he commands his four-pitch arsenal all over the zone, walking next-to-nobody (2.0 BB9) and limited mistakes (0.7 HR9). He’s made into the seventh inning in eight of his last nine en route to a 2.51 ERA in 61 IP with 44 Ks and a 3.7 K:BB ratio. This is his third trip to Philly this year with the first one going horribly (4 IP/7 ER), but the July 13th trip turning out muuuch better (7 IP/1 ER).
James Shields KC (v. NYY) – That late-May to early-July down period where he raised his ERA a full run is well behind him at this point thanks to a nine-start run that has seen him allow just a 2.04 ERA in 61.7 IP with 51 Ks and a 5.1 K:BB ratio. His latest start was a strong trip to Coors where he allowed just two runs in six innings of work with six punchouts. The Yankees’ offense has been stagnant in August despite a handful of upgrades that were supposed to solidify their starting nine. They’re averaging just 3.7 runs per game this month.
Jeff Samardzija OAK (at HOU) – Perhaps the Mets debacle will scare everyone away and he’ll actually be under-owned tonight! I doubt it given that it’s a light slate and he’s facing Houston, but it’d be cool! His strikeouts have been low since joining Oakland, but he was making up for it with lengthy outings (avg’d 7 IP in his first eight starts with them) before this last outing. His top two strikeout games with Oakland came against the Astros when he fanned six and seven in back-to-back outings to close July.
John Lackey STL (at PIT) – I’ll say the same thing I said before his last start – that trip to Baltimore is massively inflating his numbers with St. Louis. He has a 2.70 ERA in his other three starts with 16 Ks and four walks in 20 IP. In short, he’s completely fine.
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.
Jake Odorizzi TB (at BAL) – The impressive breakout has fanned at least five in 17 of his last 19 outings. In that same stretch, he’s allowed more than 3 ER just three times (3.06 ERA in 108.7 IP). He’s yet to finish 6 IP in three starts against Baltimore, and while none of them were bad (5 IP/3 ER, 5.3 IP/2 ER, and 5 IP/1 ER), I’m still dropping him to the Silver tier. The Ks can cover up mistakes, but it’s hard to put up a Gold-level score in fewer than six innings.
Chris Tillman BAL (v. TB) – Tillman’s been on fire for quite a while now (2.31 ERA since June 10th, 12th in MLB). When he first got going, the component numbers were a light, making it tough to buy back in (I was a huge Tillman supporter coming into the season), but that has changed over his last nine. Not only does he have an impressive 2.40 ERA, but also 50 Ks and a 5.0 K:BB ratio in 60 IP. He has at least 6 Ks in six of the nine starts, too. He’s curbed the homers since June 10th which has really spurred the run. He had a 1.3 HR9 rate in his first 13 starts, but it’s at just 0.67 in his last 14.
Michael Pineda NYY (at KC) – He’s looked great since returning from the DL, allowing just three runs in 11 innings of work with a 7/1 K:BB ratio. But I have him in the Silver tier because his strikeout rate has been modest all year (albeit in just six starts) and he’s facing the toughest team in the league to strike out. KC’s 15.4% K rate is easily baseball’s best (TB 17.5%). Additionally, he’s thrown just 67 and 89 pitches in his two starts since returning. If he’s going to be limited innings-wise, it’s going to make it even tougher for him to post a huge score since he’s unlikely to fan six or seven.
Kyle Lohse MIL (at SD) – With this matchup, it’s hard to ignore him, but he has been a bit rough this month, including an unimpressive performance against the Cubs his last time out (about the only matchup more intriguing than one against SD in Petco). Homers have been the issue with five allowed in the three starts, after allowing just five in his previous 11 starts. Then an ankle injury cropped up and is the reason why he hasn’t started since August 13th. I’m looking for a nice bounce back here.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Jake Peavy SF (v. COL) – He has been better with SF. Still far from great, but definitely better which was the expectation (he couldn’t get much worse!). He handled the Chicago teams nicely in back-to-back and the Rockies actually play worse than either team from the Windy City when they are on the road. In fact, their .275 road wOBA v. righties is the league’s worst (CWS 5th, CHC 22nd) giving Peavy a great matchup in his new pitcher-friendly home park.
Eric Stults SD (v. MIL) – Stults has quietly been on fire in August, allowing a 1.46 ERA in 24.7 IP over four starts. And three of those were on the road, so it’s not just Petco! The strikeouts are all over (3, 6, 1, and 5), but if you can get six strong from him as an SP2, you’ll take it at his price. Despite their substantial platoon advantage with a righty-heavy lineup, the Brewers are actually just 21st in wOBA against southpaws.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Clay Buchholz BOS (at TOR)
- Miles Mikolas TEX (at SEA)
- Jarred Cosart MIA (at LAA)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odorizzi | 0.299 | 3.98 | 0.299 | 3.65 | 0.256 | 0.721 | 0.307 | 3.25 | 0.235 | 98.40 | 26.4% |
| Tillman | 0.298 | 3.07 | 0.301 | 4.15 | 0.248 | 0.689 | 0.259 | 4.15 | 0.233 | 99.85 | 16.4% |
| Lackey | 0.303 | 3.27 | 0.333 | 4.60 | 0.261 | 0.745 | 0.299 | 3.77 | 0.258 | 102.28 | 19.8% |
| Liriano | 0.348 | 5.40 | 0.299 | 3.88 | 0.254 | 0.720 | 0.291 | 3.85 | 0.228 | 91.45 | 24.8% |
| Roark | 0.291 | 3.08 | 0.265 | 2.53 | 0.241 | 0.658 | 0.267 | 3.42 | 0.229 | 98.08 | 18.2% |
| Burnett | 0.355 | 5.42 | 0.312 | 3.58 | 0.244 | 0.696 | 0.299 | 4.12 | 0.25 | 102.41 | 19.4% |
| Buchholz | 0.374 | 5.32 | 0.331 | 6.75 | 0.268 | 0.764 | 0.337 | 4.36 | 0.291 | 98.38 | 17.6% |
| Happ | 0.353 | 5.04 | 0.338 | 4.21 | 0.247 | 0.698 | 0.308 | 4.27 | 0.265 | 86.52 | 19.0% |
| Samardzija | 0.308 | 2.96 | 0.290 | 3.55 | 0.229 | 0.672 | 0.288 | 3.45 | 0.239 | 99.50 | 21.3% |
| Feldman | 0.339 | 3.17 | 0.342 | 5.68 | 0.254 | 0.730 | 0.309 | 4.38 | 0.281 | 100.35 | 13.2% |
| Cosart | 0.317 | 3.61 | 0.293 | 4.68 | 0.254 | 0.716 | 0.291 | 3.89 | 0.254 | 98.57 | 14.3% |
| LeBlanc | 0.267 | 0.710 | |||||||||
| Lohse | 0.313 | 3.64 | 0.300 | 3.38 | 0.229 | 0.639 | 0.278 | 3.92 | 0.248 | 97.52 | 17.1% |
| Stults | 0.327 | 5.89 | 0.345 | 4.03 | 0.238 | 0.703 | 0.290 | 4.73 | 0.272 | 88.00 | 14.7% |
| Mikolas | 0.348 | 8.20 | 0.378 | 6.65 | 0.246 | 0.695 | 0.317 | 5.18 | 0.293 | 0.00 | 14.4% |
| Elias | 0.296 | 3.16 | 0.323 | 4.36 | 0.266 | 0.738 | 0.285 | 4.08 | 0.237 | 93.46 | 21.5% |
| Matzek | 0.299 | 4.08 | 0.377 | 5.76 | 0.253 | 0.707 | 0.321 | 4.39 | 0.283 | 85.50 | 15.6% |
| Peavy | 0.360 | 5.15 | 0.336 | 3.81 | 0.277 | 0.766 | 0.303 | 4.52 | 0.267 | 102.44 | 18.3% |
| Pineda | 0.264 | 2.50 | 0.221 | 1.42 | 0.263 | 0.690 | 0.244 | 2.51 | 0.204 | 77.00 | 18.8% |
| Shields | 0.327 | 3.27 | 0.313 | 3.30 | 0.305 | 3.69 | 0.261 | 107.33 | 19.2% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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