Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 30th

by Andrew Cook (louiescards) Last Updated 2014-08-30 23:12:35

The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Pineda	NYY	TOR	37	1.95	3.78	0.86	75.0%	19.3%	2.9%	0.49	0.65
Hutchison	TOR	NYY	150	4.68	3.91	1.31	31.6%	20.9%	7.6%	1.08	0.80
Scherzer	DET	CWS	181	3.13	2.91	1.14	60.0%	28.4%	6.8%	0.75	0.90
Sale	CWS	DET	142	2.03	2.58	0.93	64.3%	29.7%	5.2%	0.57	1.03
Doubront	CHC	STL	59.1	6.07	4.73	1.60	20.0%	15.5%	9.4%	1.52	0.85
Masterson	STL	CHC	121	5.88	4.03	1.65	36.8%	19.7%	11.8%	0.67	2.92
Gibson	MIN	BAL	144	4.31	4.24	1.29	52.6%	13.7%	7.2%	0.56	1.98
Tillman	BAL	MIN	171.2	3.41	4.41	1.21	42.9%	16.1%	7.8%	0.89	1.09
Simon	CIN	PIT	160.1	3.26	4.18	1.19	63.2%	15.0%	6.4%	1.07	1.59
Worley	PIT	CIN	80.1	3.14	3.72	1.26	40.0%	16.7%	4.2%	0.90	1.55
Cosart	MIA	ATL	142.1	3.98	4.40	1.38	31.6%	14.3%	9.3%	0.44	2.12
Harang	ATL	MIA	167.1	3.60	4.36	1.41	75.0%	17.3%	8.5%	0.59	1.10
Williams	PHI	NYM	78	5.42	4.04	1.49		16.2%	7.5%	0.92	1.38
Colon	NYM	PHI	167.1	3.82	3.61	1.15	42.1%	18.9%	3.2%	0.91	0.99
Ross	TEX	HOU	65.1	6.06	4.14	1.70	22.2%	13.4%	6.9%	1.24	2.07
Feldman	HOU	TEX	143	4.34	4.52	1.41	47.1%	13.3%	6.9%	0.88	1.43
Webster	BOS	TBR	31	5.81	5.70	1.58		13.0%	14.5%	0.29	1.24
Odorizzi	TBR	BOS	140.1	4.23	3.42	1.31	36.8%	25.9%	8.1%	1.09	0.67
Bauer	CLE	KCR	118.1	4.18	3.89	1.39	38.5%	22.3%	9.0%	0.91	0.80
Shields	KCR	CLE	185	3.45	3.67	1.25	42.9%	18.8%	5.0%	1.02	1.35
Matzek	COL	ARI	84	5.14	4.31	1.51	25.0%	16.3%	8.7%	0.96	1.56
Nuno	ARI	COL	131.1	4.66	4.08	1.27	18.8%	18.5%	6.9%	1.44	0.87
Greinke	LAD	SDP	164.1	2.79	2.82	1.17	50.0%	25.9%	5.4%	0.99	1.73
Kennedy	SDP	LAD	163	3.75	3.38	1.29	47.6%	25.3%	8.3%	0.66	1.11
Samardzija	OAK	LAA	175.2	3.23	3.31	1.13	60.0%	21.7%	5.7%	0.82	1.63
Rasmus	LAA	OAK
Fiers	MIL	SFG	35	1.54	2.63	0.66		29.6%	5.6%	0.77	0.75
Peavy	SFG	MIL	163.2	4.34	4.21	1.37	42.1%	18.3%	7.9%	1.21	0.92
Strasburg	WAS	SEA	175.1	3.59	2.72	1.20	52.4%	27.9%	5.5%	1.08	1.44
Elias	SEA	WAS	143.2	4.01	3.91	1.29	26.3%	21.8%	9.6%	0.94	1.25

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups. If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.

PLATINUM BUYS:

These are aces who don’t really need much explanation at all. They’re expensive, but awesome. If an ace-level arm is struggling a bit or has a tough matchup, he might fall into the gold or silver tiers, but otherwise you’re going to find the Kershaws, Hernandez, and Sales of the world in here.

Max Scherzer DET (at CWS)
Zack Greinke LAD (at SDP)

GOLD BUYS:

These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.

jake-odorizzi-300x200

Chris Sale CWS (v. DET) – Normally he would be in the Platinum buys and you would just go about your day, but today he has a tough matchup and his offense should struggle with Scherzer on the mound for the tigers. He is 10-3 on the season with a 2.03 ERA and 165 strikeouts in 142 innings pitched. We all know he has the upside to be the top pitcher of the day with a high strikeout total but just know there is a fair amount of risk with him here.

Mike Fiers MIL (at SFG) – Fiers is now 4-0 with a 1.29 ERA since taking his spot in the rotation for the Brewers with Garza on the DL. He has been fantastic with 32 strikeouts in 28 innings pitched and holding opponents to a .109 batting average. While there is no chance he continues at this pace I believe we will see him give us very good production.

Jake Odorizzi TBR (v. BOS) – Odorizzi had been pitching pretty well before his blow up in Baltimore. He has plenty of strikeout upside and should be able to limit the Red Sox to a couple earned. While he is not a complete game shutout threat there is plenty of potential for a quality start with 7+ Ks.

SILVER BUYS:

On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.

Stephen Strasburg WAS (at SEA) – Not too often you will see Strasburg down here but there are some warning signs for us that we need to keep in mind. He is 2-8 with a 4.77 ERA in away games this year and his K per 9 takes a huge dip as well. He is still one of the better options on the day but if your site is asking for an elite tier price then he is probably a GPP play today.

Jeff Samardzija OAK (at LAA) – Shark is another guy we normally see a bit higher in this piece but like Strasburg he has had his struggles we need to address. Since the All-Star break Samardzija is 3-2 with a 4.27 ERA and 43 strikeouts in 52 2/3 innings pitched. On top of the recent struggles he will be facing a very tough Angels team that seems to be putting it together at the right time.

VALUE PLAYS:

These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.

Bartolo Colon NYM (v. PHI) – There are a couple things working in our favor that make him a solid value play today. He is 4-2 with a 3.35 ERA since the All-Star break with 41 strikeouts in 45 2/3 innings pitched and a 1.05 WHIP. Today he will be taking on a pretty bad Phillies offense at home where his season era shrinks to 3.04. Colon often holds a low ownership and today could be a really solid secondary pitcher or GPP option.

STAYAWAYS:

These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.

Felix Doubront CHC (at STL)
Robbie Ross TEX (at HOU)

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Pineda	0.280	2.66	0.209	1.08	0.266	0.761	0.243	2.70	0.206	79.71	19.3%
Hutchison	0.362	6.31	0.276	2.75	0.245	0.687	0.296	3.98	0.25	94.62	20.9%
Scherzer	0.307	3.78	0.268	2.24	0.256	0.719	0.311	2.81	0.231	109.41	28.4%
Sale	0.171	0.00	0.267	2.59	0.283	0.784	0.274	2.43	0.199	106.14	29.7%
Doubront	0.364	5.29	0.376	6.38	0.252	0.712	0.301	5.29	0.277	61.65	15.5%
Masterson	0.405	6.71	0.323	4.97	0.231	0.661	0.348	4.26	0.28	88.00	19.7%
Gibson	0.313	4.17	0.287	4.48	0.258	0.727	0.283	3.75	0.253	90.60	13.7%
Tillman	0.296	3.00	0.293	3.89	0.250	0.716	0.255	4.12	0.229	99.29	16.1%
Simon	0.314	3.71	0.290	2.80	0.260	0.745	0.259	4.43	0.239	93.73	15.0%
Worley	0.328	3.28	0.304	3.02	0.242	0.667	0.309	3.63	0.272	88.31	16.7%
Cosart	0.321	3.63	0.282	4.32	0.241	0.667	0.289	3.81	0.253	98.92	14.3%
Harang	0.354	3.31	0.289	3.83	0.247	0.697	0.314	3.61	0.266	103.78	17.3%
Williams	0.365	6.05	0.320	4.71	0.235	0.667	0.325	4.18	0.285	40.94	16.2%
Colon	0.289	3.73	0.311	3.92	0.242	0.661	0.297	3.35	0.257	99.24	18.9%
Ross	0.348	6.85	0.404	5.62	0.268	0.755	0.355	4.95	0.324	58.68	13.4%
Feldman	0.336	3.17	0.342	5.70	0.251	0.672	0.307	4.35	0.279	100.50	13.3%
Webster	0.355	5.17	0.340	6.46	0.248	0.687	0.292	4.61	0.252	84.00	13.0%
Odorizzi	0.301	4.14	0.327	4.34	0.243	0.678	0.312	3.59	0.245	98.31	25.9%
Bauer	0.327	4.50	0.329	3.88	0.261	0.685	0.320	3.84	0.259	101.20	22.3%
Shields	0.332	3.40	0.318	3.52	0.259	0.740	0.307	3.82	0.265	107.39	18.8%
Matzek	0.277	3.66	0.386	5.60	0.248	0.686	0.326	4.35	0.285	85.80	16.3%
Nuno	0.297	3.62	0.340	5.00	0.276	0.793	0.279	4.62	0.253	80.46	18.5%
Greinke	0.300	2.47	0.295	3.05	0.229	0.642	0.314	3.13	0.247	100.81	25.9%
Kennedy	0.307	3.18	0.313	4.23	0.266	0.731	0.320	3.08	0.244	103.33	25.3%
Samardzija	0.306	2.82	0.287	3.59	0.255	0.716	0.287	3.41	0.237	100.11	21.7%
Rasmus					0.252	0.729
Fiers	0.187	1.10	0.196	1.93	0.246	0.683	0.167	2.73	0.136	66.88	29.6%
Peavy	0.356	5.07	0.330	3.62	0.259	0.728	0.301	4.41	0.265	102.42	18.3%
Strasburg	0.302	3.13	0.316	3.96	0.246	0.696	0.328	3.14	0.251	98.18	27.9%
Elias	0.292	3.06	0.322	4.28	0.272	0.726	0.285	4.05	0.235	93.76	21.8%

Starting Pitcher Salaries

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.

NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window