Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 31st, 2013
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown. I will focus on the top selections of the day and give you a breakdown on why they are set up for success against their given opponent. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Performance and Talent Statistics: August 31st, 2013
| PLAYER | PERFORMANCE | TALENT | |||||||||
| PITCHER | TM | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lynn | STL | 168.0 | 4.02 | 3.83 | 1.28 | 48.1% | 22.4% | 8.8% | 0.54 | 1.27 | |
| Burnett | PIT | 153.0 | 3.18 | 3.18 | 1.24 | 45.8% | 25.6% | 8.6% | 0.53 | 2.38 | |
| Wheeler | NYM | 76.1 | 3.42 | 4.19 | 1.34 | 46.2% | 21.1% | 10.1% | 1.06 | 1.06 | |
| Haren | WAS | 139.0 | 4.66 | 3.68 | 1.24 | 41.7% | 20.5% | 4.1% | 1.62 | 0.78 | |
| Kazmir | CLE | 125.0 | 4.25 | 3.84 | 1.33 | 43.5% | 21.6% | 7.7% | 1.22 | 1.06 | |
| Sanchez | DET | 144.2 | 2.61 | 3.17 | 1.15 | 65.2% | 26.7% | 7.4% | 0.44 | 1.34 | |
| Williams | LAA | 134.1 | 4.69 | 4.45 | 1.38 | 42.1% | 15.1% | 8.0% | 1.34 | 1.39 | |
| Estrada | MIL | 93.1 | 4.44 | 3.65 | 1.19 | 37.5% | 21.6% | 5.5% | 1.64 | 0.88 | |
| Turner | MIA | 98.0 | 3.12 | 4.88 | 1.36 | 43.8% | 14.7% | 10.1% | 0.55 | 1.35 | |
| Minor | ATL | 165.2 | 2.99 | 3.61 | 1.07 | 61.5% | 22.3% | 5.6% | 0.81 | 0.80 | |
| Danks | CWS | 117.0 | 4.15 | 4.07 | 1.19 | 33.3% | 16.6% | 4.6% | 1.77 | 1.13 | |
| Peavy | BOS | 112.2 | 3.99 | 3.72 | 1.09 | 55.6% | 21.2% | 4.9% | 1.44 | 0.72 | |
| Saunders | SEA | 157.1 | 5.09 | 4.69 | 1.58 | 44.4% | 12.1% | 7.6% | 1.26 | 1.73 | |
| Keuchel | HOU | 125.0 | 4.82 | 3.90 | 1.51 | 41.2% | 16.5% | 7.6% | 1.30 | 2.26 | |
| Pelfrey | MIN | 126.1 | 5.06 | 4.88 | 1.54 | 12.5% | 13.2% | 8.2% | 0.85 | 1.22 | |
| Garza | TEX | 119.2 | 3.69 | 3.70 | 1.16 | 44.4% | 21.4% | 6.1% | 1.20 | 0.96 | |
| Reynolds | CIN | 11.0 | 5.73 | 5.19 | 1.45 | 50.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 0.82 | 1.83 | |
| Nicasio | COL | 132.0 | 4.57 | 4.42 | 1.39 | 28.0% | 16.8% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 1.34 | |
| Vogelsong | SFG | 71.0 | 5.58 | 4.35 | 1.52 | 23.1% | 17.9% | 8.2% | 1.65 | 1.04 | |
| Cahill | ARI | 112.2 | 4.39 | 4.09 | 1.38 | 26.3% | 16.9% | 9.3% | 0.96 | 2.49 | |
| Cobb | TBR | 100.1 | 2.87 | 3.30 | 1.19 | 43.8% | 22.3% | 7.8% | 0.99 | 2.62 | |
| Gray | OAK | 28.1 | 3.18 | 3.27 | 1.02 | 75.0% | 26.1% | 7.8% | 0.64 | 1.14 | |
| Cashner | SDP | 144.1 | 3.55 | 4.06 | 1.21 | 40.9% | 16.8% | 7.2% | 0.69 | 1.73 | |
| Capuano | LAD | 95.0 | 4.74 | 4.01 | 1.44 | 33.3% | 16.7% | 5.3% | 0.95 | 1.40 | |
STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
TOP TEN:
Mike Minor, ATL (v. MIA) – Minor is having the best season of his career and doesn’t appear to be letting up. He has a couple of 4 ER outings since the All-Star break (including one against MIA), but that hasn’t stopped him from posting a 2.89 ERA in his seven starts. He was excellent against STL his last time out with a 7 IP/1 ER outing. He’s a high-dollar arm these days, but well worth it more often than not.
Anibal Sanchez, DET (v. CLE) – The Tigers starters didn’t have much fun with Oakland in town and Sanchez was among the casualties with a 5 IP/4 ER outing that was his worst in his last nine, but he still managed six strikeouts and didn’t look too bad overall. The Indians offense has been ice cold lately with the worst wOBA in baseball against righties for all of August. This is a great spot to rebound.
Alex Cobb, TB (at OAK) – Cobb has been excellent in his three starts since returning from the DL with a 2.16 ERA and 16 strikeouts in 16.7 IP. Even with the destruction of the Tigers this week, the A’s still have the 24th wOBA against righties this month at .280. Cobb’s teammates have a tough matchup against Sonny Gray, but I still like him for a nice outing.
Jake Peavy, BOS (v. CWS) – Peavy is starting to get in his groove as a Red Sock allowing just four earned in his last three outings including a complete game, one earned run outing in LA against the Dodgers last time out. He’s got three gems in five outings with the Sox and a fourth where he was only an out shy of another one.
Cliff Lee, PHI (at CHC) – Lee only has two gems in his last five, but he’s only allowed three earned in each of the other giving him a 3.18 ERA over the 34 IP. He has a 33/6 K/BB ratio during the run, too. Lee was shaky in July as he worked his way through an injury, but he appears completely back on track from that period with three excellent outings in a row where he has gone eight, seven, and eight innings. His offense will struggle to support him even against the Cubs because they’re facing a lefty and they are generally terrible.
Dan Haren, WAS (v. NYM) – Haren was awful through 18 starts this season with a 5.79 ERA. His command was wretched leading to 21 home runs allowed. Some of the problems are caused by a nagging back injury that flares up from time-to-time. He certainly appears healthy lately with a 1.98 ERA in his last seven outings spanning 41 IP during which he also has a 34/6 K/BB ratio. More importantly, he’s allowed just four homers as his command has looked a lot like the vintage command that made him a stud for so many years.
Marco Estrada, MIL (v. LAA) – Estrada has looked excellent since returning from the DL with a 1.88 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in four starts. He has an excellent 21/3 K/BB ratio including nine strikeouts in seven shutout innings last time in Cincinnati. His biggest issue in the past has been home runs and they reared their ugly head in the St. Louis outing he allowed four earned including two homers, but otherwise he’s allowed just one in his other three outings.
Chris Rusin, CHC (v. PHI) – He is facing Lee so the Cubs offense will have their work cut out for them, but the Phillies have been absolutely brutal against lefties this year and particularly this month with a disgusting .190 wOBA. Rusin has actually been solid this year, too, with a 2.64 ERA in eight starts over 44.3 IP.
Sonny Gray, OAK (v. TB) – Gray got his first taste of adversity in Baltimore with a 3.7 IP/6 ER outing after giving up just 4 ER in his first 25 IP. He has a 27/7 K/BB ratio in those five appearances. The Rays aren’t exactly the O’s offensively, either.
Ryan Vogelsong, ARI (at ARI) – Pitched well his last time out. Tough matchup today though.
BOTTOM FIVE:
Joe Saunders, SEA (at HOU) – Despite facing the Astros, he still makes the bottom six because he’s been brutal over his last eight with a 7.38 ERA and 2.06 WHIP in 42.7 horrible IP.
Andrew Cashner, SD (at LAD) – He cannot be trusted on the road, especially against a great Dodgers offense. He has a 4.93 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and 1.8 K/BB ratio in 73 IP.
John Danks, CWS (at BOS) – I love Danks’s walk rate (4.5%) and 3.6 K/BB ratio, but all that time in the strike zone has led to a 1.8 HR/9, too. He’s shown control, but not command. I can’t trust him in Fenway.
Mike Pelfrey, MIN (at TEX) – No.
Greg Reynolds, CIN (at COL) – Never.
ADVANCED METRICS: August 31st, 2013
| VS. L/R HANDED BATTERS | OPP vs L/R | OTHER ADVANCED STATS | |||||||||||
| PITCHER | wOBA L | ERA L | wOBA R | ERA R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% | ||
| Lynn | 0.324 | 5.00 | 0.293 | 3.34 | 0.241 | 0.696 | 0.306 | 3.21 | 0.241 | 102.15 | 63.8% | ||
| Burnett | 0.354 | 4.24 | 0.246 | 2.35 | 0.284 | 0.766 | 0.306 | 2.89 | 0.229 | 102.00 | 64.9% | ||
| Wheeler | 0.357 | 4.75 | 0.289 | 2.56 | 0.253 | 0.711 | 0.282 | 4.18 | 0.237 | 102.23 | 60.9% | ||
| Haren | 0.318 | 4.90 | 0.353 | 4.48 | 0.237 | 0.679 | 0.298 | 4.30 | 0.265 | 91.12 | 65.1% | ||
| Kazmir | 0.266 | 3.49 | 0.364 | 4.66 | 0.273 | 0.782 | 0.302 | 4.00 | 0.255 | 93.96 | 65.5% | ||
| Sanchez | 0.303 | 3.50 | 0.240 | 1.69 | 0.248 | 0.723 | 0.302 | 2.43 | 0.223 | 102.78 | 64.3% | ||
| Williams | 0.365 | 5.58 | 0.326 | 3.84 | 0.251 | 0.713 | 0.283 | 4.77 | 0.264 | 67.71 | 63.2% | ||
| Estrada | 0.315 | 3.68 | 0.323 | 5.14 | 0.270 | 0.753 | 0.279 | 4.36 | 0.249 | 93.00 | 64.4% | ||
| Turner | 0.315 | 3.38 | 0.314 | 3.04 | 0.253 | 0.737 | 0.280 | 3.93 | 0.245 | 93.38 | 60.1% | ||
| Minor | 0.264 | 2.58 | 0.293 | 3.17 | 0.226 | 0.634 | 0.274 | 3.13 | 0.227 | 97.69 | 66.2% | ||
| Danks | 0.335 | 4.65 | 0.323 | 4.01 | 0.254 | 0.726 | 0.266 | 4.89 | 0.257 | 100.06 | 65.7% | ||
| Peavy | 0.325 | 4.01 | 0.282 | 4.10 | 0.253 | 0.691 | 0.263 | 4.02 | 0.235 | 100.61 | 67.3% | ||
| Saunders | 0.254 | 2.90 | 0.421 | 5.93 | 0.246 | 0.697 | 0.322 | 4.86 | 0.302 | 97.93 | 59.1% | ||
| Keuchel | 0.358 | 5.02 | 0.366 | 4.78 | 0.231 | 0.661 | 0.324 | 4.53 | 0.290 | 76.46 | 63.9% | ||
| Pelfrey | 0.344 | 4.69 | 0.365 | 5.60 | 0.260 | 0.737 | 0.325 | 4.31 | 0.293 | 93.79 | 60.7% | ||
| Garza | 0.306 | 3.59 | 0.312 | 3.83 | 0.238 | 0.695 | 0.275 | 3.88 | 0.237 | 101.83 | 64.6% | ||
| Reynolds | 0.432 | 9.64 | 0.272 | 3.00 | 0.266 | 0.749 | 0.293 | 5.04 | 0.289 | 89.00 | 61.2% | ||
| Nicasio | 0.320 | 5.09 | 0.351 | 4.14 | 0.251 | 0.723 | 0.288 | 4.27 | 0.255 | 93.60 | 62.3% | ||
| Vogelsong | 0.337 | 4.75 | 0.410 | 6.62 | 0.257 | 0.716 | 0.317 | 5.12 | 0.285 | 95.08 | 61.7% | ||
| Cahill | 0.338 | 4.53 | 0.318 | 4.28 | 0.261 | 0.701 | 0.288 | 4.32 | 0.253 | 89.45 | 59.9% | ||
| Cobb | 0.295 | 3.47 | 0.300 | 1.95 | 0.244 | 0.710 | 0.276 | 3.67 | 0.230 | 100.25 | 64.7% | ||
| Gray | 0.272 | 3.78 | 0.247 | 2.31 | 0.253 | 0.739 | 0.243 | 2.79 | 0.189 | 72.67 | 62.4% | ||
| Cashner | 0.314 | 4.18 | 0.291 | 3.03 | 0.271 | 0.728 | 0.277 | 3.62 | 0.241 | 83.48 | 64.0% | ||
| Capuano | 0.300 | 4.68 | 0.374 | 4.78 | 0.254 | 0.734 | 0.335 | 3.65 | 0.293 | 76.65 | 62.9% | ||
- Opp Avg vs. L/R – Opponent Batting Average vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- Opp OPS vs. L/R – Opponent On Base + Slugging Percentage vs. Left/Right Handed Pitching
- wOBA-L and wOBA-R – Pitcher Weighted On Base Percentage Against vs. Left/Right Handed Batters
- ERA-L and ERA-R – Pitcher Earned Run Average against Left/Right Handed Batters
- BABIP – Pitcher Batting Average Against on Balls In Play
- FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching
- Pit/G – Average Pitches Thrown Per Game
- Strk% – Percentage of Pitches for Strikes
Starting Pitcher Salaries: August 31st, 2013
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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