Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 31st
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McCarthy | NYY | TOR | 168 | 4.13 | 2.94 | 1.32 | 35.0% | 21.0% | 4.1% | 0.96 | 2.37 |
| Happ | TOR | NYY | 118.2 | 4.40 | 4.09 | 1.41 | 30.8% | 19.7% | 8.6% | 1.21 | 0.96 |
| Burnett | PHI | NYM | 178 | 4.30 | 3.98 | 1.38 | 38.1% | 20.3% | 9.9% | 0.81 | 1.75 |
| Gee | NYM | PHI | 107.1 | 3.77 | 4.41 | 1.16 | 50.0% | 16.2% | 8.0% | 1.17 | 1.13 |
| Nolasco | MIN | BAL | 123.1 | 5.62 | 4.16 | 1.53 | 16.7% | 16.2% | 5.8% | 1.24 | 1.11 |
| Chen | BAL | MIN | 148.1 | 3.76 | 3.85 | 1.25 | 31.6% | 17.6% | 4.5% | 1.27 | 1.12 |
| Cueto | CIN | PIT | 199 | 2.26 | 3.16 | 0.96 | 76.2% | 25.3% | 7.0% | 0.81 | 1.39 |
| Liriano | PIT | CIN | 124.1 | 3.98 | 3.55 | 1.34 | 12.5% | 25.1% | 11.2% | 0.87 | 2.07 |
| Buchholz | BOS | TBR | 131 | 5.77 | 4.17 | 1.50 | 33.3% | 17.4% | 7.9% | 1.03 | 1.36 |
| Cobb | TBR | BOS | 126.2 | 3.06 | 3.15 | 1.16 | 42.9% | 23.3% | 7.3% | 0.64 | 2.10 |
| Martinez | TEX | HOU | 105 | 5.31 | 5.37 | 1.61 | 27.3% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 1.37 | 0.73 |
| Keuchel | HOU | TEX | 171.1 | 3.05 | 3.16 | 1.20 | 50.0% | 18.3% | 6.2% | 0.53 | 3.18 |
| Porcello | DET | CWS | 173.1 | 3.06 | 3.89 | 1.12 | 55.6% | 14.9% | 4.7% | 0.78 | 1.75 |
| Quintana | CWS | DET | 165.2 | 3.48 | 3.68 | 1.26 | 50.0% | 20.5% | 6.9% | 0.38 | 1.38 |
| Wood | CHC | STL | 156.1 | 4.72 | 4.40 | 1.48 | 30.0% | 18.8% | 9.6% | 0.86 | 0.80 |
| Lackey | STL | CHC | 169.1 | 3.77 | 3.64 | 1.25 | 57.9% | 19.5% | 5.5% | 1.12 | 1.36 |
| Kazmir | OAK | LAA | 158 | 3.08 | 3.58 | 1.11 | 63.2% | 20.8% | 6.0% | 0.80 | 1.25 |
| Shoemaker | LAA | OAK | 110.2 | 3.33 | 3.04 | 1.08 | 44.4% | 24.2% | 4.7% | 1.06 | 1.16 |
| Lohse | MIL | SFG | 165.2 | 3.42 | 4.03 | 1.19 | 50.0% | 17.3% | 5.5% | 0.98 | 1.02 |
| Bumgarner | SFG | MIL | 185 | 3.02 | 2.91 | 1.09 | 47.6% | 25.8% | 5.1% | 0.78 | 1.32 |
| Roark | WAS | SEA | 166.2 | 2.81 | 3.89 | 1.09 | 52.6% | 17.9% | 5.5% | 0.70 | 1.19 |
| Iwakuma | SEA | WAS | 149.1 | 2.83 | 2.98 | 0.98 | 60.0% | 20.9% | 2.3% | 0.84 | 1.71 |
| De La Rosa | COL | ARI | 154.2 | 4.19 | 4.07 | 1.22 | 40.0% | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.05 | 1.66 |
| Anderson | ARI | COL | 92.1 | 3.90 | 4.00 | 1.41 | 40.0% | 20.5% | 8.8% | 1.27 | 1.11 |
| Ryu | LAD | SDP | 137.1 | 3.28 | 3.29 | 1.19 | 61.1% | 21.4% | 4.7% | 0.52 | 1.50 |
| Stults | SDP | LAD | 140 | 4.63 | 4.38 | 1.39 | 26.3% | 14.5% | 6.0% | 1.48 | 1.17 |
| Eovaldi | MIA | ATL | 165.1 | 4.30 | 3.93 | 1.28 | 50.0% | 16.7% | 4.9% | 0.60 | 1.28 |
| Wood | ATL | MIA | 137 | 3.09 | 3.34 | 1.18 | 58.3% | 23.3% | 6.8% | 0.92 | 1.29 |
| House | CLE | KCR | 71 | 4.18 | 3.39 | 1.51 | 25.0% | 17.0% | 6.7% | 1.01 | 3.26 |
| Duffy | KCR | CLE | 134.2 | 2.47 | 4.29 | 1.07 | 57.1% | 18.9% | 8.7% | 0.67 | 0.76 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
PLATINUM BUYS:
These are aces who don’t really need much explanation at all. They’re expensive, but awesome. If an ace-level arm is struggling a bit or has a tough matchup, he might fall into the gold or silver tiers, but otherwise you’re going to find the Kershaws, Hernandez, and Sales of the world in here.
Johnny Cueto CIN (at PIT)
Madison Bumgarner SFG (v. MIL)
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Alex Cobb TBR (v. BOS) – Cobb will look to continue what Jake Odorizzi was able to do last night against the Red Sox. The Rays have pitched pretty well as a whole since the deal that sent their ace to the Tigers. Cobb is 5-0 with a 1.42 ERA since the All-Star break striking out 54 in 50 2/3 innings pitched. He has not allowed the opposition more than 2 earned since his July 4th start against Detroit when he gave up 3.
Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD (at SDP) – Ryu is coming off the DL pitching for the first time since August 13th. Typically I don’t like to start a guy coming back from injury but Ryu has dominated this Padres team allowing only 1 run in 19 innings pitched. He is 13-6 with a 3.28 ERA on the season and should see plenty of run support with the struggling Eric Stults taking the mound for the Padres. There is absolutely risk in this play but he has a ton of upside and I really think his floor is set at a solid day too.
Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (v. WAS) – Iwakuma had a rough start against the Red Sox last week in Fenway and will look to bounce back at home today against the Nationals. He has really solid numbers at home holding opponents to a .228 batting average and carrying a 2.66 ERA. Those of you who rostered him last week probably will struggle to pull the trigger again here but he is one of the higher end options on the day.
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.
Alex Wood ATL (v. MIA) – Wood has been great in August so far going 2-2 with a 2.43 ERA in 5 starts striking out 28 in 33 1/3 innings pitched. It appears that he is coming into his own in the second half and today will see a very solid matchup against the Miami Marlins. The key for him will be keeping the walks to a minimum in this one and if he can do that we should see a great line.
Francisco Liriano PIT (v. CIN) – Liriano has been really good in his 8 post All-Star starts outside of the Atlanta game. In 48 innings he has allowed 13 earned runs 7 of them came in that one game. He offers us high strikeout potential and this Reds team can completely disappear at the plate. His win / loss record is a bit worrisome and with Cueto on the mound for the Reds it is certainly not a slam dunk so on win heavy sites we should give him a slight bump down.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
A.J. Burnett PHI (at NYM) – I know this is not a guy many of you would even consider putting in your lineup but hear me out. When Burnett has the ball moving he is a nasty pitcher as was evident against the Nats last time out. Even when we take a look at the Mariners game he struck out 9 batters which is an indicator he had his stuff working. Insert the Mets who are playing one of the weaker lineups in the league right now and you have a solid value play. I am not saying run him out there in your cash games, but you could do worse in a GPP or even a secondary pitcher.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
Nick Martinez TEX (at HOU)
Jorge De La Rosa COL (at ARI)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McCarthy | 0.333 | 3.98 | 0.320 | 4.28 | 0.266 | 0.760 | 0.341 | 3.32 | 0.284 | 94.81 | 21.0% |
| Happ | 0.350 | 4.91 | 0.339 | 4.26 | 0.261 | 0.712 | 0.306 | 4.34 | 0.263 | 87.54 | 19.7% |
| Burnett | 0.345 | 5.18 | 0.314 | 3.55 | 0.235 | 0.666 | 0.297 | 4.05 | 0.245 | 102.43 | 20.3% |
| Gee | 0.305 | 4.97 | 0.301 | 2.55 | 0.242 | 0.659 | 0.238 | 4.57 | 0.223 | 96.94 | 16.2% |
| Nolasco | 0.400 | 5.97 | 0.361 | 5.29 | 0.258 | 0.728 | 0.353 | 4.34 | 0.314 | 97.10 | 16.2% |
| Chen | 0.317 | 3.41 | 0.333 | 3.88 | 0.251 | 0.690 | 0.299 | 4.13 | 0.269 | 95.72 | 17.6% |
| Cueto | 0.262 | 2.08 | 0.251 | 2.42 | 0.261 | 0.745 | 0.234 | 3.32 | 0.189 | 107.46 | 25.3% |
| Liriano | 0.339 | 4.78 | 0.297 | 3.77 | 0.240 | 0.680 | 0.291 | 3.76 | 0.226 | 91.43 | 25.1% |
| Buchholz | 0.360 | 5.04 | 0.327 | 6.75 | 0.248 | 0.688 | 0.327 | 4.27 | 0.284 | 98.59 | 17.4% |
| Cobb | 0.264 | 3.12 | 0.296 | 3.00 | 0.243 | 0.680 | 0.288 | 3.22 | 0.228 | 95.52 | 23.3% |
| Martinez | 0.395 | 5.10 | 0.343 | 5.54 | 0.229 | 0.672 | 0.305 | 5.40 | 0.29 | 80.00 | 12.2% |
| Keuchel | 0.273 | 2.64 | 0.307 | 3.19 | 0.269 | 0.745 | 0.299 | 3.25 | 0.251 | 103.16 | 18.3% |
| Porcello | 0.302 | 2.80 | 0.284 | 3.39 | 0.256 | 0.720 | 0.275 | 3.68 | 0.248 | 97.12 | 14.9% |
| Quintana | 0.284 | 5.08 | 0.294 | 2.89 | 0.283 | 0.784 | 0.312 | 2.87 | 0.251 | 104.70 | 20.5% |
| Wood | 0.264 | 3.63 | 0.359 | 5.16 | 0.252 | 0.712 | 0.314 | 4.12 | 0.264 | 99.41 | 18.8% |
| Lackey | 0.305 | 3.25 | 0.332 | 4.38 | 0.231 | 0.664 | 0.298 | 3.80 | 0.259 | 101.85 | 19.5% |
| Kazmir | 0.296 | 3.65 | 0.281 | 2.90 | 0.276 | 0.773 | 0.278 | 3.41 | 0.233 | 93.81 | 20.8% |
| Shoemaker | 0.333 | 3.98 | 0.263 | 2.76 | 0.252 | 0.726 | 0.287 | 3.38 | 0.235 | 74.78 | 24.2% |
| Lohse | 0.312 | 3.54 | 0.299 | 3.32 | 0.249 | 0.689 | 0.278 | 3.90 | 0.247 | 97.27 | 17.3% |
| Bumgarner | 0.249 | 1.97 | 0.293 | 3.36 | 0.241 | 0.712 | 0.298 | 2.86 | 0.233 | 102.21 | 25.8% |
| Roark | 0.295 | 3.16 | 0.262 | 2.46 | 0.247 | 0.695 | 0.265 | 3.48 | 0.229 | 98.27 | 17.9% |
| Iwakuma | 0.286 | 2.77 | 0.242 | 2.90 | 0.245 | 0.705 | 0.278 | 3.03 | 0.236 | 93.41 | 20.9% |
| De La Rosa | 0.224 | 2.52 | 0.342 | 4.76 | 0.247 | 0.685 | 0.260 | 4.37 | 0.232 | 95.56 | 17.7% |
| Anderson | 0.291 | 3.02 | 0.388 | 4.62 | 0.274 | 0.756 | 0.309 | 4.41 | 0.265 | 92.53 | 20.5% |
| Ryu | 0.287 | 2.84 | 0.289 | 3.41 | 0.217 | 0.616 | 0.311 | 2.77 | 0.251 | 96.43 | 21.4% |
| Stults | 0.327 | 5.89 | 0.353 | 4.18 | 0.240 | 0.692 | 0.293 | 4.87 | 0.276 | 88.23 | 14.5% |
| Eovaldi | 0.345 | 4.60 | 0.270 | 3.94 | 0.241 | 0.667 | 0.313 | 3.31 | 0.269 | 97.81 | 16.7% |
| Wood | 0.304 | 2.17 | 0.296 | 3.43 | 0.269 | 0.714 | 0.295 | 3.48 | 0.24 | 72.37 | 23.3% |
| House | 0.290 | 4.30 | 0.383 | 4.13 | 0.269 | 0.712 | 0.344 | 4.12 | 0.299 | 82.64 | 17.0% |
| Duffy | 0.174 | 1.42 | 0.291 | 2.80 | 0.248 | 0.666 | 0.231 | 3.74 | 0.198 | 79.81 | 18.9% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window
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