Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 7th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Degrom | NYM | WAS | 94.1 | 2.77 | 3.55 | 1.22 | 50.0% | 23.3% | 8.3% | 0.48 | 1.37 |
| Zimmermann | WAS | NYM | 132 | 3.00 | 3.14 | 1.17 | 52.6% | 22.5% | 3.9% | 0.61 | 1.38 |
| Porcello | DET | NYY | 141.1 | 3.18 | 3.88 | 1.12 | 55.6% | 15.8% | 5.4% | 0.76 | 1.76 |
| Greene | NYY | DET | 29.1 | 3.68 | 3.64 | 1.26 | 100.0% | 19.1% | 7.9% | 0.92 | 2.27 |
| Peavy | SFG | MIL | 137 | 4.73 | 4.21 | 1.38 | 42.1% | 18.4% | 8.1% | 1.31 | 0.98 |
| Peralta | MIL | SFG | 138 | 3.52 | 3.81 | 1.28 | 47.4% | 17.1% | 6.9% | 1.17 | 2.01 |
| Hendricks | CHC | COL | 26.1 | 2.05 | 3.72 | 1.06 | 16.5% | 6.8% | 0.68 | 2.47 | |
| Flande | COL | CHC | 28.1 | 5.72 | 3.83 | 1.34 | 14.4% | 6.8% | 0.32 | 2.68 | |
| Flynn | MIA | PIT | |||||||||
| Volquez | PIT | MIA | 126.2 | 3.91 | 4.44 | 1.31 | 50.0% | 15.3% | 8.5% | 0.99 | 1.48 |
| McHugh | HOU | PHI | 95 | 3.32 | 3.25 | 1.11 | 42.9% | 27.4% | 9.0% | 0.95 | 1.08 |
| Hernandez | PHI | HOU | 121 | 3.87 | 4.71 | 1.35 | 35.3% | 14.2% | 10.4% | 0.82 | 1.80 |
| Gonzalez | BAL | TOR | 107.2 | 3.93 | 4.52 | 1.43 | 40.0% | 16.2% | 8.3% | 1.59 | 0.94 |
| Happ | TOR | BAL | 95.1 | 4.34 | 4.29 | 1.45 | 30.8% | 18.6% | 9.2% | 1.04 | 0.99 |
| House | CLE | CIN | 55 | 4.09 | 3.40 | 1.51 | 25.0% | 16.1% | 6.6% | 1.15 | 3.42 |
| Bailey | CIN | CLE | 138.2 | 3.89 | 3.68 | 1.25 | 31.6% | 20.1% | 7.6% | 1.04 | 1.75 |
| Workman | BOS | STL | 57.1 | 4.08 | 4.41 | 1.22 | 25.0% | 17.8% | 9.5% | 1.10 | 1.02 |
| Wainwright | STL | BOS | 155 | 2.26 | 3.55 | 1.01 | 84.2% | 20.8% | 6.1% | 0.29 | 1.42 |
| Guthrie | KCR | ARI | 138 | 4.50 | 4.40 | 1.36 | 42.1% | 15.1% | 6.6% | 1.24 | 1.09 |
| Nuno | ARI | KCR | 107.1 | 4.78 | 4.18 | 1.33 | 18.8% | 18.3% | 7.4% | 1.59 | 0.84 |
| Pino | MIN | OAK | 45.1 | 4.57 | 4.10 | 1.26 | 40.0% | 18.5% | 5.3% | 0.79 | 0.62 |
| Lester | OAK | MIN | 149.2 | 2.59 | 3.08 | 1.14 | 65.0% | 25.0% | 5.4% | 0.54 | 1.20 |
| Ryu | LAD | LAA | 124.2 | 3.39 | 3.30 | 1.22 | 61.1% | 21.4% | 4.6% | 0.58 | 1.45 |
| Wilson | LAA | LAD | 117.2 | 4.74 | 3.81 | 1.39 | 42.1% | 21.7% | 9.9% | 1.15 | 1.80 |
| Carroll | CWS | SEA | 86.2 | 4.36 | 4.40 | 1.47 | 33.3% | 11.8% | 7.6% | 0.73 | 2.08 |
| Elias | SEA | CWS | 129 | 4.19 | 3.80 | 1.28 | 26.3% | 21.6% | 8.5% | 0.98 | 1.22 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Jon Lester OAK (v. MIN) – Lester has been so good that even with starts of 5 and 7 ER, he still has a 2.59 ERA on the season. Those two starts account for 28% of his earned runs while he also has 15 starts of 2 or fewer earned runs. He has three 12+ K outings and 10 others of at least seven strikeouts. He’s been a superstar this year including a 6.3 IP/1 ER gem against the Twins back on June 17th.
Adam Wainwright STL (v. BOS) – Wainwright has three wretched starts on his ledger this year. He went 5 IP/6 ER against the Cubs on May 2nd, but bounced back with a brilliant 0.87 ERA in his next four starts. He then went 4.3 IP/7 ER against the Giants, but bounced back even better with a 1.40 ERA in nine starts before his latest outing of 5.3 IP/7 ER against the Brewers. In short, I really expect him to be just fine. His strikeouts are down recently with just a 5.1 K9 since July 1st after an 8.1 K9 rate in his first 16 starts. He has shown he can be a stud even without the big strikeouts, but I’m not even ready to count them out after just a month of them missing.
DAY – Jacob deGrom NYM (at WAS) – deGrom has been a breakout, surprise Rookie of the Year candidate fueled by an impressive and completely unexpected strikeout rate (8.6 K9 in 94.3 IP). He’s been particularly hot of late with a 1.04 ERA in his last five starts, pitching into the seventh in all five and completing at least seven in four of them. He also has a 0.89 WHIP, 37 Ks, and just six walks in the 34.7 IP during this hot run.
DAY – Jordan Zimmermann WAS (v. NYM) – Zimm isn’t getting enough attention for his huge 2013 and I can’t help but wonder if it’s related to his 7-5 record (he had 19 wins a year ago). JZ has improved his ERA by a quarter of a run and his consistency has jumped to another level. He’s got a few duds mixed in as any pitcher will over the course of a season, but 14 of his 22 starts have seen him allow fewer 3 ER and he’s gone at least 6 IP in 15 of 22 (there is obviously some overlap between the two sets).
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.
Collin McHugh HOU (at PHI) – McHugh has continued to impress me. I wasn’t buying it at all early on, but his strikeout rate has maintained and it’s helped him stay useful. He had a 2.80 ERA in his first seven starts and while it’s up to 3.78 in his last nine, it has still come with 57 Ks in 50 IP. Philly has been the second-worst team in baseball against righties from an OPS standpoint at .654 on the season.
Homer Bailey CIN (v. CLE) – Bailey is back to being a strong, trustworthy asset. He has a 2.88 ERA in his last 12 starts. His 7.3 K9 in that span is way down from last year’s 8.6 K9, but it’s in line with his career mark of 7.5. This isn’t a great matchup for him as Cleveland excels against righties, especially those with platoon splits, but at his best he is matchup-proof.
DAY – Wily Peralta MIL (v. SF) – It was a shock when the Phillies ripped Peralta for 9 ER, but he has rebounded brilliantly with a 1.71 ERA in his last four (26.3 IP). When you watch Peralta, his stuff seems ripe for more strikeouts, but his 6.5 K9 has been underwhelming. He minimizes the need for major strikeout numbers with his fantastic 54% groundball rate and a modest SF offense gives him the chance to stay hot, especially since he excels against the league’s best with a 1.80 ERA against .500+ teams (4.85 ERA against the sub-.500 set).
DAY – Rick Porcello DET (at NYY) – Speaking of unimpressive strikeout totals, Porcello has seen his rate fade to 5.6 K9 after a big boost in 2013 (7.2 K9). Like Peralta, Porcello was also recently trounced (5.7 IP/7 ER on Jul 6th), but he, too, has put together an impressive four-start run since then with a 1.86 ERA in 29 IP including a surge in punchouts with 24 in that span. Now it’s worth noting that 10 of those did come against the lowly Rockies, but he notched five and six in a pair of 7 IP outings before that, too.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
DAY – Jake Peavy SF (at MIL) – If he continues to stifle the homers (zero in his 2 NL starts; 1.5 HR9 in 20 AL starts), he’s going to be markedly better than the high-4.00s ERA we’ve seen from him to date. Even his 4.85 ERA in two NL starts deserves better (2.67 FIP) and I expect it to get better from here on out. Peavy struggles more against lefties, something the Brewers are essentially devoid of outside of Scooter Gennett and recently acquired Gerardo Parra.
Edinson Volquez PIT (v. MIA) – Can he really be trusted? Probably not, but spotted in the right starts he can be effective. He’s been unimpressive his last three times out, but that was against the Dodgers at home and on the road against the Rockies and D’Backs – all three are starts you wouldn’t have used him for anyway. A down-trodden Marlins squad? That’s when you use someone like Volquez. His ERA hit a season-high 4.71 on May 17th, but since then he has a 3.39 ERA in 13 starts which includes the three recent starts (5.74 ERA) and an 8 ER dud against Cincy. That should tell you just how good those other nine starts were for him.
Miguel Gonzalez BAL (at TOR) – Gonzalez was doused for 7 ER in Detroit to start his season on April 4th, but he hasn’t allowed more than 4 ER in a single start since then (3.45 ERA in 104.3 IP). Now 4 ER isn’t necessarily a desirable threshold, but the point is that he hasn’t really imploded since that first one and in fact he’s actually been quite good. Before a 5 IP/4 ER effort his last time out, he had four straight gems in July, yielding a 1.82 ERA in 29.7 IP.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
DAY
- Shane Greene NYY (v. DET)
- Yohan Flande COL (v. CHC)
NIGHT
- Vidal Nuno ARI (v. KC)
- Yohan Pino MIN (at OAK)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Degrom | 0.299 | 2.09 | 0.279 | 3.23 | 0.241 | 0.687 | 0.302 | 2.97 | 0.235 | 102.53 | 23.3% |
| Zimmermann | 0.293 | 2.93 | 0.304 | 3.08 | 0.235 | 0.672 | 0.325 | 2.73 | 0.26 | 88.59 | 22.5% |
| Porcello | 0.289 | 2.82 | 0.301 | 3.62 | 0.247 | 0.692 | 0.272 | 3.65 | 0.243 | 98.76 | 15.8% |
| Greene | 0.320 | 3.18 | 0.262 | 4.38 | 0.272 | 0.748 | 0.276 | 4.06 | 0.237 | 85.33 | 19.1% |
| Peavy | 0.356 | 5.53 | 0.333 | 3.86 | 0.258 | 0.729 | 0.295 | 4.60 | 0.262 | 102.45 | 18.4% |
| Peralta | 0.360 | 5.50 | 0.270 | 1.56 | 0.240 | 0.676 | 0.281 | 4.33 | 0.253 | 99.50 | 17.1% |
| Hendricks | 0.259 | 1.32 | 0.267 | 2.84 | 0.277 | 0.762 | 0.250 | 3.74 | 0.221 | 94.75 | 16.5% |
| Flande | 0.237 | 5.40 | 0.372 | 5.94 | 0.266 | 0.749 | 0.315 | 3.24 | 0.273 | 77.50 | 14.4% |
| Flynn | 0.244 | 0.665 | |||||||||
| Volquez | 0.330 | 4.47 | 0.311 | 3.48 | 0.246 | 0.690 | 0.271 | 4.52 | 0.246 | 90.32 | 15.3% |
| McHugh | 0.286 | 2.86 | 0.278 | 3.83 | 0.239 | 0.654 | 0.256 | 3.51 | 0.199 | 100.06 | 27.4% |
| Hernandez | 0.300 | 2.68 | 0.323 | 4.81 | 0.227 | 0.666 | 0.256 | 4.61 | 0.232 | 85.74 | 14.2% |
| Gonzalez | 0.355 | 3.12 | 0.360 | 4.98 | 0.271 | 0.778 | 0.293 | 5.30 | 0.272 | 92.89 | 16.2% |
| Happ | 0.321 | 4.98 | 0.344 | 4.15 | 0.258 | 0.736 | 0.310 | 4.25 | 0.267 | 84.65 | 18.6% |
| House | 0.291 | 4.19 | 0.388 | 4.04 | 0.247 | 0.694 | 0.337 | 4.41 | 0.299 | 82.09 | 16.1% |
| Bailey | 0.346 | 4.39 | 0.298 | 3.59 | 0.262 | 0.751 | 0.289 | 4.07 | 0.247 | 98.91 | 20.1% |
| Workman | 0.311 | 4.28 | 0.283 | 3.80 | 0.251 | 0.680 | 0.240 | 4.48 | 0.217 | 75.08 | 17.8% |
| Wainwright | 0.275 | 2.19 | 0.237 | 2.32 | 0.244 | 0.687 | 0.261 | 2.75 | 0.209 | 101.14 | 20.8% |
| Guthrie | 0.363 | 5.24 | 0.300 | 3.51 | 0.252 | 0.694 | 0.297 | 4.73 | 0.272 | 103.09 | 15.1% |
| Nuno | 0.306 | 3.28 | 0.350 | 5.23 | 0.262 | 0.693 | 0.281 | 4.91 | 0.258 | 80.27 | 18.3% |
| Pino | 0.358 | 4.18 | 0.264 | 4.98 | 0.256 | 0.735 | 0.309 | 3.47 | 0.264 | 92.38 | 18.5% |
| Lester | 0.301 | 2.04 | 0.282 | 2.76 | 0.254 | 0.701 | 0.311 | 2.63 | 0.24 | 109.59 | 25.0% |
| Ryu | 0.288 | 3.03 | 0.295 | 3.51 | 0.279 | 0.786 | 0.319 | 2.79 | 0.259 | 96.24 | 21.4% |
| Wilson | 0.268 | 4.22 | 0.347 | 4.94 | 0.230 | 0.676 | 0.304 | 4.39 | 0.253 | 103.55 | 21.7% |
| Carroll | 0.370 | 3.83 | 0.310 | 5.14 | 0.242 | 0.683 | 0.312 | 4.43 | 0.285 | 77.56 | 11.8% |
| Elias | 0.292 | 3.45 | 0.325 | 4.40 | 0.260 | 0.714 | 0.293 | 3.96 | 0.243 | 93.68 | 21.6% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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