Adam Wainwright Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

We’re already handicapped by a lack of information on Opening Day, having to rely on last season’s statistics and a few relevant spring training notes. Add in a shortened spring training, which will likely hinder pitcher workloads the first time or two through rotation and chaotic April weather to the obstacles facing daily fantasy players on Opening Day 2022.

FanDuel is offering a full day seven game main slate on Thursday, while DraftKings will start at 4pm ET and offer six. The difference being the Brewers and Cubs at Wrigley on FanDuel. Where players have the option, Corbin Burnes is the top pitcher on the board, despite his high cost. Burnes is the reigning NL Cy Young winner despite throwing just 167 innings last season, speaking to how dominant he was, striking out 35.6% of the batters he faced with a 16.6 SwStr%, both best on the board today. He had just one estimators (2.61 SIERA) slightly above his 2.43 ERA and allowed just 3.1% Barrels/BBE on the season. Burnes has already completed six innings this spring as well.

That last point is a huge deal, as Patrick Corbin, Adam Wainwright and Madison Bumgarner are the only other Opening Day pitchers to have completed five innings in a start this spring. That may make Adam Wainwright the arm to own on DraftKings, costing just $7.5K against the Pirates (75 wRC+ on the road, 85 wRC+ vs RHP last year) in what is the most negative run environment on the board over the last three years. Shane Bieber is the highest upside arm left (33.1 K%, 3.17 ERA, 3.21 SIERA, 3.76 xERA in 16 2022 starts), but only pitched 1.1 and 3.1 innings in his two spring starts, although we don’t know if pitchers are further ramping up on the side. Bieber and Ohtani are the only other pitchers above $10K on FanDuel, while nobody reaches that price point on DraftKings. Bieber costs just $8.3K on DK, while Ohtani only pitched 2.1 and 3.1 innings in his two spring starts and starts in a very tough spot against the Astros (20 K% vs RHP last year).

Two lower priced arms to consider are Tyler Megill or J.T. Brubaker in your secondary slots on DraftKings. Both 2021 rookies showed some strikeout upside (Megill 26.1%, Brubaker 24%) with home run issues late in the year. Brubaker will open in a power suppressing park in St Louis, while Megill will face a light lineup in Washington. Megill is currently projected for the lower ownership rate in LineupHQ. Make sure to watch out for Kevin’s Opening Day forecast with potential rain issues in Washington though.

With 40% of the slate currently carrying at least a hint or Orange in the weather forecast and three teams going with bullpen games, we’re probably going to have to take larger risks than we’re normally comfortable with in terms of pitching choices tonight, particularly on DraftKings, where you’re required to make two of those choices. It’s certainly not a favorable or high upside spot to face a projected lineup with seven batters above a 105 wRC+ and .175 ISO vs RHP since 2019, but should the weather concerns improve, there are several factors in Adam Wainwright’s favor tonight.

Let’s start with the fact that of the four weather concerns tonight, St Louis appears to be the most optimistic spot. It’s also one of the more negative run environments in the league, particularly early in the season before the weather heats up. And, although, Brandon Nimmo and J.D. Davis are currently projected to play, neither started last night’s game in Philadelphia due to hand injuries. Nimmo did appear as a defensive replacement and is probably more likely to play than Davis might be. Most importantly though, is Wainwright’s own performance. He seems to have the fountain of youth at age 40. His average velocity exceeds 90 mph for the first time since 2017. His 26.4 K% and 11.5 SwStr% are both career highs. A 45.7 GB% is a bit below his career average, but higher than last year. An 89.2 mph EV (7.4% Barrels/BBE) is right around league average and his 5.0 BB% is his lowest since 2015. It’s not unreasonable to consider him potentially one of the top values on the board, particularly as a Glasnow alternative on FanDuel where he costs just $7.2K. Only Aaron Civale, Walker Buehler and Glasnow are averaging more than six innings per start this year, but Adam Wainwright has the next highest workload at just below that.

Adam Wainwright has been a workhorse, facing at least 26 batters in six straight starts. He’s also generated a 15.2 K-BB% that’s his best mark since 2013 and more impressively, his 11 SwStr% is the first time he’s ever seen double digits! Sure, the 2.87 ERA is at least a full run below all of his estimators, none of which are below four. However, his .228 BABIP is only 18 points below what the Cardinal defense has allowed as a team. He has a 4.33 SIERA and DRA, which the Cardinals would have signed up for in a minute entering the season. The important thing to remember is the workload tonight because Wainwright is the second most expensive starter on FanDuel, $2K behind deGrom, who did leave his last start early with a hamstring issue. The workload should help Wainwright build up the strikeouts to a respectable total in a favorable matchup tonight. The Royals have just an 87 wRC+ and 16.5 K-BB% vs RHP this year. If we add back in last year’s numbers, LHBs do have a .349 wOBA and .368 xwOBA vs Wainwright since 2019 (RHBs .283/.302). Even then though, the Royals don’t have a single LHB in the projected lineup above a 95 wRC+ or .150 ISO vs RHP over that same span and Sal Perez is the only batter in the lineup from either side above a 106 wRC+ over the last 30 days. While players would certainly be right to embrace the volatility of deGrom tonight, Wainwright offers some better than you might think stability.

Adam Wainwright is starting for the Cardinals this afternoon and has quietly been an effective pitcher in his age 38 season despite appearing to be in decline in 2017 and 2018. Wainwright posted a 4.19 ERA / 4.39 xFIP / 4.70 SIERA with a 1.43 WHIP, 12% K-BB, .327 xwOBA allowed and 6.9% barrel rate over 171 and 2/3 innings this year. It’s worth noting that Wainwright has been a much better pitcher at home: since 2015, Wainwright has posted a 3.06 ERA / 3.44 FIP, 12.7% K-BB and .311 xwOBA allowed at home compared to a 6.09 ERA / 4.83 FIP, 10.2% K-BB and .341 xwOBA allowed on the road. Wainwright has also been a bit more vulnerable to lefties, posting a .343 xwOBA vs. LHB compared to a .309 xwOBA allowed vs. RHP since 2015. Wainwright last pitched on 10/6 (7 and 2/3 innings, no runs, 8 Ks) so he is pitching on full rest.

The Nationals had just a 100 wRC+ vs. RHP during the regular season, but do have a league-leading .350 xwOBA vs. RHP over the past 30 days. They currently have an implied total of just 3.75 vs. Wainwright. Here’s their projected order: 1. Turner (.339 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), 2. Eaton (.348), 3. Rendon (.410), 4. Soto (.422), 5. Kendrick (.413), 6. Zimmerman (.327), 7. Taylor (.254), 8. Gomes (.268). Rendon and Kendrick have been the Nats’ most productive hitters this postseason with xwOBAs over .425. Taylor (.189), Gomes (.203) and Turner (.261) have struggled a bit. If BVP is your thing, it’s worth nothing that Ryan Zimmerman has an other-worldly .833 xwOBA vs. Wainwright over 40 PA since 2015. Once Wainwright is out of the game, they’ll face a Cardinals ‘pen that has allowed a .320 xwOBA over the past 30 days, regular season and postseason included.

Max Scherzer gets the nod for the Nationals and last pitched on 10/7 versus the Dodgers, allowing just 1 earned run over 7 innings with a 7/3 K/BB ratio. 35 year old Scherzer is coming off another great regular season and actually set career bests in K%, K-BB%, FIP and SwStr%. Scherzer is a bit more vulnerable vs. lefties (.279 xwOBA vs. LHB, .224 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2015) but the Cardinals project to have just four lefties in their lineup today. Overall, the Cardinals had a 93 wRC+ and 23.2% K rate vs. RHP on the year. The Cardinals currently have just a 3.25 implied line vs. Scherzer.

Here’s the Cardinals projected lineup: 1. Fowler (.338 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), 2. Wong (.308), 3. Goldschmidt (.343), 4. Ozuna (.380), 5. Molina (.305), 6. Carpenter (.325), 7. Edman (.324), 8. DeJong (.328). Marcell Ozuna has been their hottest hitter in the playoffs with a .456 xwOBA, followed by Paul Goldschmidt at .408. The rest of the projected lineup has been held under a .285 xwOBA thus far. The coldest bats are Paul DeJong (.169) and Yadi Molina (.217). When / if the Cardinals chase Scherzer from the game, they will face a Nationals bullpen that has allowed a .323 xwOBA over the past 30 days.

The Cubs look like they’ll end the season on a pretty low note after being officially eliminated from the playoffs and with rumors swirling that Joe Maddon will not return. Practically the four best hitters in their usual lineup (Rizzo, Castellanos, Baez, Bryant) all look like they will be out for this game and possibly the rest of the season. That leaves their projected lineup with just two hitters with an xwOBA vs. RHP above .335 this year. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have plenty to play for here as they are trying to clinch the division. 38 year old Adam Wainwright has quietly put together a nice bounce-back year, posting a 3.98 ERA / 4.38 xFIP, 11.9% K-BB and 1.39 WHIP. Wainwright is pitching at home tonight, where he has much better numbers: since 2015, Waino has a 2.92 ERA / 3.30 FIP, 12.7% K-BB and .307 xwOBA allowed in home starts, compared to a 6.09 ERA / 4.83 FIP, 10.2% K-BB and .341 xwOBA allowed in road starts. The Cubs currently have just a 3.56 implied total vs. Wainwright and the Cards. Wainwright doesn’t have much K upside, but he is under $9.5k on both major sites and should be a solid option regardless.

An important aspect to remember as we embark on the last week of the regular season is team motivation. We can’t just assume a pitcher is set for his normal workload. Teams generally fall into one of four categories when it comes to pitcher workload management this time of year: getting pitchers ready for the post-season, still playing for a post-season spot, more cautiously managing the workload of younger pitchers or those with recent injuries, all systems go. A short five game slate allows us to examine all 10 pitchers tonight and see what category they fall into.

Looking towards the post-season: This is an easy one because the answer is nobody! The Cardinals are the only team in action tonight who have already clinched a post-season berth, but still have a magic number of four to clinch the division. It’s not out of reach for the Brewers.

Still playing for something: This is a bit trickier because teams like the Phillies (Zach Eflin) and Mets (Steven Matz) have absolutely no margin for error. This is not necessarily a positive in terms of choosing your daily fantasy pitcher because these pitchers are likely to have the shortest leash should something go wrong. Matz has been excellent at home (1.84 ERA, .282 xwOBA, 3.19 FIP, 3.67 xFIP) and is in a great spot against the Marlins (79 wRC+ vs LHP). He costs just $7.6K on DraftKings and should be fine here.

The Nationals (Patrick Corbin) are very close to locked in for a wild card spot, but we’re not sure which one. Corbin is second on the board with a 28.4 K%, .301 xwOBA and 3.87 ERA, but first with a 3.08 DRA. He may be the top overall arm on the board and should probably be treated as much. Adam Wainwright is in a similar situation, but he’s a low upside arm with a 14.8 K% over the last 30 days and has just a 7.2 SwStr% on the season with non-FIP estimators well above his ERA.

Adam Wainwright has been an average pitcher by ERA (4.51), estimators (4.64 SIERA, 4.60 DRA) and xwOBA (.325), though a 22% strikeout rate may be unsustainable with a just a 7.6 SwStr%. He generated a 22.1 K% last season with a swinging strike rate 1.5 points higher, but has otherwise been below 20% the three previous seasons with a swinging strike rate in the same range as his mark this year and his 2.37 career K/SwStr is much superior to his 2.89 mark this year. Should his strikeout rate drop, estimators would likely climb to somewhere around five. There are certainly several other factors working in favor of the Milwaukee offense also tonight. Their 5.34 implied run line is now tops on the board and has been increasing in recent hours. Wainwright will experience a significant downward park shift tonight and will be facing the Brewers for the second consecutive outing, walking four and allowing five runs in five innings with just two strikeouts at home last time out. In fact, considering weather expectations among the non-west coast or dome games, there may be no other run environment that comes close to Milwaukee tonight. The Brewers also have an abundance of left-handed power in their lineup, which should spell trouble for Wainwright as well. Over the last calendar year, batters from that side of the plate own a .363 wOBA (.356 xwOBA) against him. Christian Yelich (211 wRC+, .408 ISO last calendar year) is easily tonight’s top bat with Yasmani Grandal (118 wRC+, .202 ISO) the top catcher. Mike Moustakas (116 wRC+, .262 ISO) and Eric Thames (124 wRC+, .264 ISO) have been similarly potent with the platoon advantage.

Adam Wainwright has quietly been a serviceable pitcher this year as he owns a 4.31 ERA, 4.30 xFIP, and 4.61 SIERA with a 12.3% K-BB. He has kept the ball on the ground with a 50% GB rate and has a .328 xwOBA allowed, 8.3% barrel rate and 87.6 MPH aEV. Since June 1st, Wainwright has a 3.07 ERA, 3.79 xFIP and 3.68 SIERA with a 25.4% K rate and 10.7% BB rate. Wainwright gets the start tonight vs. the Diamondbacks at home, where he’s been a completely different pitcher. Since 2017, Wainwright has a 3.93 xFIP, .305 xwOBA and 13.5% K-BB at home compared to a 4.86 xFIP, .352 xwOBA and 7.7% K-BB on the road. On the year, the D-Backs have just an 89 wRC+ and 21.9% K rate vs. RHP. The D-backs have just 2 batters in their projected lineup who have an xwOBA greater than .320 vs. RHP in 2019. Wainwright will be $8.1k on Draftkings and $7.6k on Fanduel and is an intriguing option on a slate that mostly lacks obvious SP plays. The D-Backs currently have a 4.16 implied line vs. Wainwright and the Cardinals at Busch Stadium tonight.