Daily Pitcher Breakdown: August 9th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kluber | CLE | NYY | 165.2 | 2.55 | 2.77 | 1.08 | 57.1% | 26.70% | 5.3% | 0.54 | 1.60 |
| McCarthy | NYY | CLE | 140.0 | 4.37 | 3.01 | 1.36 | 35.0% | 20.30% | 4.4% | 1.09 | 2.47 |
| Scherzer | DET | TOR | 153.0 | 3.24 | 3.07 | 1.20 | 60.0% | 27.30% | 7.0% | 0.82 | 0.88 |
| Stroman | TOR | DET | 77.1 | 3.49 | 3.35 | 1.16 | 66.7% | 21.40% | 5.7% | 0.58 | 1.51 |
| Odorizzi | TBR | CHC | 116.2 | 4.09 | 3.51 | 1.35 | 36.8% | 25.80% | 8.9% | 0.93 | 0.72 |
| Jackson | CHC | TBR | 125.2 | 5.66 | 4.06 | 1.57 | 15.0% | 20.50% | 9.6% | 1.07 | 1.24 |
| Lackey | STL | BAL | 144.1 | 3.55 | 3.55 | 1.22 | 57.9% | 20.00% | 5.3% | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Jimenez | BAL | STL | 99.2 | 4.52 | 4.65 | 1.54 | 27.8% | 20.10% | 13.7% | 0.99 | 1.42 |
| Stults | SDP | PIT | 116.2 | 4.94 | 4.43 | 1.42 | 26.3% | 14.40% | 6.2% | 1.54 | 1.17 |
| Liriano | PIT | SDP | 101.1 | 3.91 | 3.61 | 1.34 | 12.5% | 25.20% | 11.2% | 0.89 | 1.86 |
| Gee | NYM | PHI | 82.0 | 3.73 | 4.14 | 1.12 | 50.0% | 17.70% | 7.2% | 1.21 | 1.15 |
| Hamels | PHI | NYM | 137.1 | 2.42 | 3.20 | 1.11 | 58.8% | 25.10% | 7.2% | 0.52 | 1.46 |
| Darvish | TEX | HOU | 140.1 | 2.82 | 2.86 | 1.20 | 55.6% | 30.10% | 7.8% | 0.83 | 0.82 |
| Feldman | HOU | TEX | 117.2 | 4.13 | 4.74 | 1.39 | 47.1% | 12.50% | 7.2% | 0.84 | 1.28 |
| Greinke | LAD | MIL | 146.1 | 2.71 | 2.71 | 1.14 | 50.0% | 26.50% | 4.9% | 0.86 | 1.73 |
| Fiers | MIL | LAD | |||||||||
| Roark | WAS | ATL | 141.0 | 2.94 | 3.78 | 1.09 | 52.6% | 18.60% | 5.3% | 0.70 | 1.21 |
| Harang | ATL | WAS | 142.1 | 3.41 | 4.32 | 1.39 | 75.0% | 18.10% | 8.9% | 0.57 | 1.06 |
| Penny | MIA | CIN | |||||||||
| Simon | CIN | MIA | 138.0 | 3.07 | 4.15 | 1.12 | 63.2% | 15.00% | 6.2% | 1.11 | 1.59 |
| Hudson | SFG | KCR | 144.1 | 2.74 | 3.50 | 1.14 | 68.4% | 15.50% | 4.1% | 0.62 | 2.30 |
| Shields | KCR | SFG | 157.1 | 3.43 | 3.64 | 1.25 | 42.9% | 19.20% | 5.0% | 1.03 | 1.31 |
| De La Rosa | COL | ARI | 128.2 | 4.27 | 4.08 | 1.27 | 40.0% | 18.20% | 8.8% | 0.98 | 1.66 |
| Cahill | ARI | COL | 63.1 | 5.12 | 3.75 | 1.59 | 20.0% | 21.20% | 9.9% | 0.71 | 1.75 |
| Buchholz | BOS | LAA | 101.2 | 6.20 | 4.40 | 1.61 | 33.3% | 16.20% | 8.2% | 1.15 | 1.28 |
| Richards | LAA | BOS | 153.1 | 2.58 | 3.22 | 1.02 | 65.0% | 24.70% | 7.8% | 0.29 | 1.75 |
| May | MIN | OAK | |||||||||
| Samardzija | OAK | MIN | 151.2 | 2.91 | 3.32 | 1.09 | 60.0% | 21.70% | 5.9% | 0.77 | 1.67 |
| Noesi | CWS | SEA | 114.0 | 4.97 | 4.47 | 1.45 | 26.7% | 16.80% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 0.99 |
| Paxton | SEA | CWS | 16.1 | 2.76 | 2.62 | 0.92 | 50.0% | 29.00% | 8.1% | 1.65 | 3.00 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Yu Darvish TEX (at HOU) – Darvish has pitched really well out of the break and if you have followed his career then you know just how dominant he has been against the Houston Astros. I am not saying he will take a no hitter into the 9th again but he will rack up the strikeouts and limit the Stros to a couple runs or less. Darvish now sits at 10-6 on the season with a 2.82 ERA and 175 strikeouts over 140 1/3 innings pitched. Im throwing out his last game versus Houston which was right in the middle of his bad streak that had people questioning his health.
Jeff Samardzija OAK (v. MIN) – The A’s have to be happy with what he has been able to do since coming over to the AL. Today he will be facing a Twins team that ranks in the lower third in K% and bottom half in wOBA vRHP. Samardzija is 1-0 in his 4 starts since the break and tonight looks to be a solid opportunity to pick up that second win.
Cole Hamels PHI (v. NYM) – Hamels has been flat out nasty in his last three starts going 2-1 with a 0.39 ERA and 24 strikeouts in 23 innings pitched. He will be taking on the Mets who are tied with the Cubs for worst K% vL on the season and are third to last in wOBA vL behind only the Padres and Mariners. The only real downside is that he is at home in a hitters park but that would require the Mets bats to square him up in the first place.
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.
Jake Odorizzi TBR (at CHC) – Prior to his last outing Odorizzi had been very solid for the Rays going 4-1 with a 2.90 ERA in July and posting 32 strikeouts over 31 innings pitched. Today he will be in Chicago taking on a Cubs team that ranks near the bottom in both K% and wOBA vRHP.
Francisco Liriano PIT (v. SDP) – The Padres rank dead last in wOBA vLHP on the season and Liriano has not allowed more than 4 hits in any of his last seven starts. Since returning from the DL Liriano has been much closer to the pitcher we watched last season and this matchup could not be any better. He is averaging over a K per inning in his last three starts and is primed for a huge K total tonight.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Alfredo Simon CIN (v. MIA) – Simon is at home in a good matchup with the Marlins tonight. His price is pretty affordable across most sites and makes a solid value as a secondary pitcher. He has hit a rough spot lately but that is nothing this Marlins team cannot cure. Typically not known for his strikeout ability this is a good chance to see a bump in that number with Miami ranking dead last in K% vRHP. He is 12-7 on the year with a 3.07 ERA and has held opponents to a .233 average. Not bad for a guy most people didn’t even know existed.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Edwin Jackson CHC (v. TBR)
- Eric Stults SDP (at PIT)
- Brad Penny MIA (at CIN)
- Trevor May MIN (at OAK)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kluber | 0.309 | 2.87 | 0.237 | 2.22 | 0.247 | 0.692 | 0.306 | 2.49 | 0.230 | 101.71 | 26.7% |
| McCarthy | 0.347 | 4.33 | 0.325 | 4.41 | 0.262 | 0.749 | 0.343 | 3.59 | 0.289 | 94.26 | 20.3% |
| Scherzer | 0.316 | 3.83 | 0.279 | 2.45 | 0.271 | 0.778 | 0.316 | 3.01 | 0.240 | 108.83 | 27.3% |
| Stroman | 0.276 | 2.74 | 0.299 | 4.60 | 0.271 | 0.747 | 0.298 | 3.00 | 0.242 | 76.24 | 21.4% |
| Odorizzi | 0.322 | 4.31 | 0.298 | 3.81 | 0.232 | 0.666 | 0.317 | 3.46 | 0.245 | 97.41 | 25.8% |
| Jackson | 0.396 | 6.09 | 0.343 | 5.32 | 0.252 | 0.699 | 0.349 | 4.21 | 0.289 | 95.61 | 20.5% |
| Lackey | 0.306 | 3.57 | 0.311 | 3.53 | 0.256 | 0.717 | 0.296 | 3.58 | 0.254 | 102.32 | 20.0% |
| Jimenez | 0.364 | 5.26 | 0.308 | 3.72 | 0.250 | 0.678 | 0.298 | 4.70 | 0.249 | 101.11 | 20.1% |
| Stults | 0.332 | 6.48 | 0.359 | 4.32 | 0.245 | 0.667 | 0.295 | 5.00 | 0.279 | 87.14 | 14.4% |
| Liriano | 0.349 | 4.64 | 0.297 | 3.71 | 0.220 | 0.623 | 0.291 | 3.79 | 0.226 | 91.11 | 25.2% |
| Gee | 0.325 | 5.11 | 0.277 | 2.60 | 0.240 | 0.658 | 0.241 | 4.43 | 0.221 | 95.00 | 17.7% |
| Hamels | 0.274 | 2.03 | 0.277 | 2.52 | 0.246 | 0.668 | 0.288 | 2.85 | 0.220 | 105.25 | 25.1% |
| Darvish | 0.317 | 3.56 | 0.257 | 1.66 | 0.228 | 0.666 | 0.321 | 2.85 | 0.232 | 104.71 | 30.1% |
| Feldman | 0.327 | 2.83 | 0.347 | 5.49 | 0.252 | 0.680 | 0.298 | 4.46 | 0.274 | 99.25 | 12.5% |
| Greinke | 0.294 | 2.51 | 0.288 | 2.87 | 0.259 | 0.730 | 0.316 | 2.86 | 0.244 | 101.48 | 26.5% |
| Fiers | 0.265 | 0.737 | |||||||||
| Roark | 0.284 | 3.21 | 0.274 | 2.66 | 0.241 | 0.663 | 0.269 | 3.41 | 0.230 | 97.09 | 18.6% |
| Harang | 0.338 | 2.91 | 0.296 | 3.84 | 0.241 | 0.687 | 0.310 | 3.57 | 0.260 | 104.04 | 18.1% |
| Penny | 0.243 | 0.674 | |||||||||
| Simon | 0.317 | 3.88 | 0.272 | 2.24 | 0.246 | 0.690 | 0.246 | 4.49 | 0.230 | 93.41 | 15.0% |
| Hudson | 0.327 | 3.15 | 0.262 | 2.31 | 0.263 | 0.686 | 0.286 | 3.38 | 0.252 | 93.41 | 15.5% |
| Shields | 0.333 | 3.33 | 0.316 | 3.54 | 0.242 | 0.678 | 0.306 | 3.81 | 0.263 | 107.63 | 19.2% |
| De La Rosa | 0.210 | 2.45 | 0.352 | 4.89 | 0.261 | 0.709 | 0.269 | 4.32 | 0.236 | 95.57 | 18.2% |
| Cahill | 0.410 | 8.42 | 0.295 | 2.87 | 0.279 | 0.768 | 0.360 | 3.64 | 0.287 | 48.74 | 21.2% |
| Buchholz | 0.383 | 5.58 | 0.342 | 7.07 | 0.256 | 0.721 | 0.340 | 4.62 | 0.300 | 96.61 | 16.2% |
| Richards | 0.236 | 2.83 | 0.251 | 2.27 | 0.243 | 0.685 | 0.258 | 2.66 | 0.195 | 103.35 | 24.7% |
| May | 0.254 | 0.732 | |||||||||
| Samardzija | 0.296 | 2.17 | 0.284 | 3.56 | 0.246 | 0.701 | 0.277 | 3.39 | 0.229 | 100.22 | 21.7% |
| Noesi | 0.307 | 4.43 | 0.380 | 5.69 | 0.243 | 0.687 | 0.295 | 4.81 | 0.267 | 78.00 | 16.8% |
| Paxton | 0.311 | 3.86 | 0.258 | 0.711 | 0.194 | 4.24 | 0.175 | 80.67 | 29.0% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window
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