Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Fri, Sep 19
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kershaw | LAD | CHC | 185.1 | 1.7 | 2.09 | 0.83 | 66.70% | 31.60% | 4.00% | 0.44 | 1.8 |
| Jackson | CHC | LAD | 139 | 6.09 | 4.19 | 1.62 | 15.00% | 19.80% | 9.80% | 1.1 | 1.16 |
| Gallardo | MIL | PIT | 180.1 | 3.59 | 3.87 | 1.29 | 50.00% | 17.20% | 6.80% | 1 | 1.77 |
| Locke | PIT | MIL | 120.1 | 3.66 | 3.97 | 1.24 | 66.70% | 16.70% | 7.00% | 1.05 | 1.73 |
| Webster | BOS | BAL | 46.1 | 6.02 | 5.28 | 1.51 | 13.60% | 12.60% | 0.58 | 1.38 | |
| Gausman | BAL | BOS | 103.1 | 3.57 | 4.18 | 1.34 | 37.50% | 18.50% | 8.60% | 0.44 | 1.17 |
| Buehrle | TOR | NYY | 188 | 3.4 | 4.39 | 1.38 | 60.00% | 13.20% | 5.40% | 0.67 | 1.31 |
| Kuroda | NYY | TOR | 184.1 | 3.81 | 3.78 | 1.17 | 45.00% | 17.00% | 4.60% | 0.83 | 1.44 |
| Quintana | CWS | TBR | 185.2 | 3.3 | 3.56 | 1.23 | 50.00% | 21.40% | 6.80% | 0.39 | 1.33 |
| Hellickson | TBR | CWS | 57 | 3.63 | 3.91 | 1.32 | 21.00% | 7.80% | 1.11 | 0.79 | |
| Fister | WAS | MIA | 148.1 | 2.55 | 3.96 | 1.13 | 58.30% | 14.50% | 3.60% | 1.03 | 1.43 |
| Koehler | MIA | WAS | 179.1 | 3.71 | 4.18 | 1.28 | 52.60% | 18.80% | 8.80% | 0.75 | 1.13 |
| Wheeler | NYM | ATL | 174.1 | 3.61 | 3.56 | 1.33 | 55.00% | 23.20% | 9.90% | 0.72 | 2.02 |
| Teheran | ATL | NYM | 209 | 2.89 | 3.7 | 1.07 | 70.00% | 20.90% | 5.80% | 0.86 | 0.79 |
| Bauer | CLE | MIN | 142.2 | 4.04 | 3.94 | 1.37 | 38.50% | 21.90% | 9.20% | 0.88 | 0.84 |
| Hughes | MIN | CLE | 194.2 | 3.56 | 3.12 | 1.14 | 45.00% | 22.20% | 2.00% | 0.69 | 0.93 |
| Walker | SEA | HOU | 24.1 | 2.96 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 19.60% | 14.00% | 0.74 | 1.94 | |
| Peacock | HOU | SEA | 123.2 | 4.8 | 4.44 | 1.54 | 28.60% | 20.10% | 11.70% | 1.24 | 0.87 |
| Verlander | DET | KCR | 190.2 | 4.81 | 4.23 | 1.44 | 35.00% | 17.80% | 7.80% | 0.85 | 0.96 |
| Vargas | KCR | DET | 179.2 | 3.41 | 4.05 | 1.24 | 68.40% | 16.80% | 5.10% | 0.9 | 1 |
| Anderson | ARI | COL | 109.1 | 3.7 | 3.77 | 1.34 | 40.00% | 21.70% | 8.20% | 1.32 | 1.11 |
| Lyles | COL | ARI | 115.1 | 4.21 | 4.15 | 1.35 | 58.30% | 17.10% | 9.30% | 0.94 | 2.01 |
| Holmberg | CIN | STL | 18 | 6 | 5.4 | 1.72 | 14.90% | 13.80% | 2.5 | 0.67 | |
| Lackey | STL | CIN | 183.2 | 3.97 | 3.62 | 1.3 | 57.90% | 19.50% | 5.50% | 1.18 | 1.39 |
| Buchanan | PHI | OAK | 105.2 | 3.75 | 4.2 | 1.28 | 20.00% | 14.40% | 6.60% | 1.02 | 1.72 |
| Lester | OAK | PHI | 205.2 | 2.45 | 3.09 | 1.1 | 65.00% | 24.80% | 5.50% | 0.66 | 1.19 |
| Bonilla | TEX | LAA | |||||||||
| Santiago | LAA | TEX | 119 | 3.55 | 4.35 | 1.33 | 16.70% | 20.40% | 9.90% | 1.06 | 0.59 |
| Hudson | SFG | SDP | 179.2 | 3.41 | 3.61 | 1.21 | 68.40% | 15.30% | 4.20% | 0.7 | 2.09 |
| Despaigne | SDP | SFG | 89.1 | 3.63 | 4.25 | 1.28 | 100.00% | 15.50% | 8.20% | 0.6 | 1.76 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
PLATINUM BUYS:
These are aces who don’t really need much explanation at all. They’re expensive, but awesome. If an ace-level arm is struggling a bit or has a tough matchup, he might fall into the gold or silver tiers, but otherwise you’re going to find the Kershaws, Hernandez, and Sales of the world in here.
Jon Lester OAK (v. PHI)
Tyson Ross SD (v. SF)
Julio Teheran ATL (v. NYM)
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Zack Wheeler NYM (at ATL) – Wheeler has had an incredible second half and his price now reflects as much, but it hasn’t risen so high that he’s no longer valuable. Even though the Nats popped him for six earned in just four innings his last time, he still has a 3.14 ERA in his 11 second half starts. He also has 68 strikeouts in the 66 innings of work, though an elevated walk rate (3.8 BB9) leaves him with solid, but unspectacular 2.4 K:BB ratio. It’s still an improvement from his 2.2 in 19 starts before the break. After dominating them last year (2.89 ERA in three starts), he’s been a bit more inconsistent against the Braves this year with a 3.70 ERA in four starts. Even smashing the sample together leaves us with just seven games to look at, but regardless of his previous work against them, this Braves team is one to be picked on right now given how badly they have struggled down the stretch. There’s still risk with Wheeler, particularly at an upper-tier price, but the upside is too high to ignore. The Braves have baseball’s worst OPS against righties over the last calendar month at just .600. It isn’t much better for the season at large as they sit 29th with a .657 mark.
Jose Quintana CWS (at TB) – Quintana has unquestionably had a fantastic season thus far, once again improving his ERA, K9, and K:BB, something he’s done in each of the last two years after a solid rookie season out of nowhere. Playing for a perennial loser has really depressed his W-L record which can hurt on the daily landscape, but it also holds his price down which is definitely a positive. He has shown his upside throughout the season with several big outings, but it was his start that really delivered for those who used him. Seven huge innings against Minnesota during which he allowed just one run on five base runners with 13(!) strikeouts netted his daily users over 40 points on DraftKings! Q has some duds on his record this year, but he’s got a really high floor with a quality start in two-thirds of his 30 starts.
Phil Hughes MIN (v. CLE) – Hughes labored through a rough July (5.71 ERA), but he has been a roll since the calendar turned to August. He has a 2.21 ERA in his last eight starts with 58 Ks and just three walks in 57 innings of work. The worst of those was a 7.7 IP/4 ER outing against KC which certainly fell short of expectations, but it definitely didn’t kill your night. In each of the other seven starts, he has put up ace-like numbers, going at least seven innings in all but one and never allowing more than 3 ER. This run includes a 7 IP/1 ER destruction of Cleveland (with 8 Ks!) which is very encouraging given how good they have been against righties this year. The price is higher than you might expect for someone with a mid-3.00s ERA, but when you look at the makeup of his season, he has pitched better than that. The big strikeout totals (career-best 1 8.1 K9), lack of walks, and 2.64 FIP back up the idea that he’s way better than a mid-3.00s arm and he’s being priced as such.
1 – career-best as an SP
Taijuan Walker SEA (at HOU) – This is a speculation gold pick because he certainly hasn’t done the work to earn that distinction, but he’s in the bargain bin price-wise, he has tremendous talent capable of a huge effort, and he’s facing a Houston team that is fanning at a 30% clip against righties this month. In fact, just this week they have allowed Cleveland starters to net 14, 12, and 9 Ks in three games (and even netted six in six innings, well above his 7.5 K9 clip for the season). Walker has that kind of strikeout upside, too. He needed just five innings to fan eight Astros in September start against them last year.
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.
Doug Fister WAS (at MIA) – It’s one thing to have a low strikeout total, but Fister has mixed that with some high hits-allowed counts which has neutered his daily scores even though he has a 2.68 ERA in his last seven starts. Looking at his DraftKings totals, we see that he’s averaged 13.5 points per game during the seven-game run with three scores under seven points. This is his first crack at Miami and they do love to strike out so maybe he can top his season-high of seven tonight. While there are some flaws in his profile from a daily gaming standpoint, the upside is still there because he can go really deep into games and make up for his modest strikeout totals.
Kevin Gausman BAL (v. BOS) – Gausman was a favorite of mine coming into the season and he’s undoubtedly had a solid season for the Orioles, but he hasn’t made a huge impact on the fantasy landscape just yet. His biggest impact has come in September as he’s been great in three starts so far this month with a 2.53 ERA in 21.3 innings with 21 strikeouts and a 2.6 K:BB ratio. At his price, those are really useful starts. He’s only seen his division foes once this year, but he was good against them despite just 5.3 innings of work. He allowed one run on six base runners with seven strikeouts.
Hiroki Kuroda NYY (v. TOR) – Kuroda is definitely a high-floor, SP2 kind of pick. It’s great when he goes 7 IP/1 ER with 8 Ks like he did on September 3rd against Boston, but you’re paying for about six or so innings with two or three runs allowed. That is where he will be more often than not which will give you a good score. It’s not a flashy pick, but he regularly gets the job done.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Tom Koehler MIA (v. WAS) – Koehler has quietly been a consistently strong option since the All-Star break. He has a 3.24 ERA in 11 starts. While far from a great rate, I’ve been impressed with his 7.1 K9 which is well above his 5.8 from last year. He’ll have a huge strikeout game every once in a while (10 v. NYM on Sept. 3rd), but for the most part you should plan on about five or so. He hasn’t seen them since April, but Koehler has a pair of starts against Washington this year and he’s allowed just 2 ER in 13 IP (1.38 ERA) with nine strikeouts, but also seven walks as he walked five in the April 15th matchup against them.
Tim Hudson SF (at SD) – Hudson has really sputtered down the stretch. He had a 2.71 ERA through July (21 starts), but he has a 5.80 ERA over his last eight with just one truly good outings in the mix (8 IP/1 ER at home v. COL). He has allowed at least seven hits in each of his last three, but those were at COL, at DET, and v. LAD. A trip to SD is just what he needs to get his season back on track. He has a 2.96 ERA against them in four starts along with an elite 9.0 K:BB ratio thanks to just two walks in the 27.3 IP.
David Buchanan PHI (at OAK) – Likely lost in the mix of Philly’s awful season is the fact that Buchanan hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER for the last three months. He has a 3.07 ERA in his last 14 starts and gets this flailing Oakland offense in the spacious Coliseum. Buchanan’s components have been thoroughly unimpressive during his run which is why he is still just a value SP2, but he has induced plenty of weak contact, not walked many, and kept the ball in the yard during this run. This normally scary Oakland offense has just gone in the tank completely.
Brad Peacock HOU (v. SEA) – He’s a five-and-dive which limits the upside, but he’s trying to close the season with a bang. He has a 1.66 ERA in his last four starts with 21 Ks and a 2.3 K:BB ratio in 21.3 IP which includes five scoreless (with 6 Ks!) against the Mariners. The M’s have struggled to take advantage of Oakland’s collapse due to their mostly-anemic offense. I expected more out of Peacock coming into the season and I thought I’d be putting him in this value tier a lot this year, but it hasn’t played out that way. He’s finally showing signs of the upside I saw in him, though, and maybe it’s the start of something substantial.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Trevor Bauer CLE (at MIN) – MIN has second-best OPS v. RHP since the break (.775, second to PIT at .798)
- Chase Anderson ARI (at COL)
- Mark Buehrle TOR (at NYY)
- Jordan Lyles COL (v. ARI)
- Allen Webster BOS (at BAL)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kershaw | 0.188 | 0.51 | 0.236 | 1.98 | 0.257 | 0.722 | 0.266 | 1.86 | 0.188 | 99.96 | 31.6% |
| Jackson | 0.405 | 6.71 | 0.349 | 5.61 | 0.270 | 0.742 | 0.352 | 4.33 | 0.294 | 94.08 | 19.8% |
| Gallardo | 0.284 | 2.79 | 0.331 | 4.24 | 0.262 | 0.750 | 0.289 | 4.05 | 0.255 | 99.97 | 17.2% |
| Locke | 0.238 | 3.07 | 0.333 | 3.86 | 0.238 | 0.703 | 0.275 | 4.18 | 0.248 | 94.42 | 16.7% |
| Webster | 0.356 | 6.04 | 0.328 | 6.00 | 0.259 | 0.738 | 0.287 | 4.83 | 0.253 | 84.33 | 13.6% |
| Gausman | 0.317 | 3.03 | 0.289 | 4.39 | 0.241 | 0.672 | 0.310 | 3.31 | 0.256 | 97.94 | 18.5% |
| Buehrle | 0.323 | 3.02 | 0.336 | 3.53 | 0.258 | 0.707 | 0.319 | 3.72 | 0.287 | 96.53 | 13.2% |
| Kuroda | 0.308 | 3.96 | 0.289 | 3.63 | 0.264 | 0.755 | 0.284 | 3.60 | 0.25 | 96.73 | 17.0% |
| Quintana | 0.287 | 4.78 | 0.288 | 2.77 | 0.248 | 0.694 | 0.311 | 2.78 | 0.247 | 104.90 | 21.4% |
| Hellickson | 0.264 | 3.50 | 0.384 | 3.86 | 0.253 | 0.710 | 0.297 | 3.98 | 0.251 | 92.82 | 21.0% |
| Fister | 0.319 | 2.51 | 0.273 | 2.58 | 0.250 | 0.699 | 0.271 | 3.99 | 0.251 | 98.35 | 14.5% |
| Koehler | 0.289 | 3.08 | 0.323 | 4.36 | 0.245 | 0.705 | 0.284 | 3.86 | 0.24 | 91.30 | 18.8% |
| Wheeler | 0.342 | 4.56 | 0.277 | 2.80 | 0.238 | 0.657 | 0.304 | 3.63 | 0.239 | 103.20 | 23.2% |
| Teheran | 0.295 | 3.31 | 0.262 | 2.45 | 0.239 | 0.677 | 0.264 | 3.45 | 0.224 | 99.52 | 20.9% |
| Bauer | 0.320 | 4.19 | 0.329 | 3.89 | 0.253 | 0.722 | 0.312 | 3.92 | 0.253 | 100.50 | 21.9% |
| Hughes | 0.275 | 2.65 | 0.320 | 4.56 | 0.255 | 0.726 | 0.328 | 2.64 | 0.266 | 95.33 | 22.2% |
| Walker | 0.402 | 2.92 | 0.191 | 3.00 | 0.230 | 0.668 | 0.258 | 4.69 | 0.213 | 71.67 | 19.6% |
| Peacock | 0.343 | 4.25 | 0.355 | 5.57 | 0.244 | 0.691 | 0.309 | 4.78 | 0.263 | 84.46 | 20.1% |
| Verlander | 0.307 | 3.63 | 0.386 | 6.69 | 0.259 | 0.679 | 0.319 | 3.89 | 0.273 | 106.57 | 17.8% |
| Vargas | 0.298 | 2.60 | 0.310 | 3.68 | 0.284 | 0.791 | 0.294 | 3.74 | 0.26 | 102.00 | 16.8% |
| Anderson | 0.302 | 3.40 | 0.363 | 3.97 | 0.276 | 0.764 | 0.302 | 4.30 | 0.257 | 90.80 | 21.7% |
| Lyles | 0.371 | 3.70 | 0.289 | 4.70 | 0.247 | 0.677 | 0.283 | 4.41 | 0.248 | 96.60 | 17.1% |
| Holmberg | 0.367 | 5.14 | 0.252 | 0.713 | 0.264 | 7.96 | 0.268 | 66.60 | 14.9% | ||
| Lackey | 0.319 | 3.47 | 0.337 | 4.52 | 0.239 | 0.659 | 0.307 | 3.90 | 0.266 | 99.45 | 19.5% |
| Buchanan | 0.251 | 2.15 | 0.363 | 4.98 | 0.248 | 0.715 | 0.274 | 4.39 | 0.252 | 91.61 | 14.4% |
| Lester | 0.306 | 1.96 | 0.275 | 2.59 | 0.242 | 0.684 | 0.297 | 2.81 | 0.232 | 109.33 | 24.8% |
| Bonilla | 0.258 | 0.723 | |||||||||
| Santiago | 0.254 | 2.20 | 0.327 | 4.07 | 0.272 | 0.749 | 0.281 | 4.26 | 0.239 | 78.52 | 20.4% |
| Hudson | 0.327 | 3.55 | 0.286 | 3.26 | 0.228 | 0.639 | 0.298 | 3.49 | 0.264 | 90.93 | 15.3% |
| Despaigne | 0.334 | 3.40 | 0.266 | 3.83 | 0.256 | 0.703 | 0.276 | 3.89 | 0.241 | 96.73 | 15.5% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window