Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, April 10th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buehrle | TOR | BAL | 202 | 3.39 | 4.32 | 1.36 | 60.0% | 13.9% | 5.4% | 0.67 | 1.29 |
| Norris | BAL | TOR | 165.1 | 3.65 | 3.86 | 1.22 | 26.7% | 20.2% | 7.6% | 1.09 | 1.13 |
| McHugh | HOU | TEX | 154.2 | 2.73 | 3.14 | 1.02 | 42.9% | 25.4% | 6.6% | 0.76 | 1.25 |
| Holland | TEX | HOU | 37 | 1.46 | 3.80 | 1.05 | 17.2% | 3.5% | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Wood | CHC | COL | 173.2 | 5.03 | 4.41 | 1.53 | 30.0% | 18.7% | 9.7% | 1.04 | 0.81 |
| Matzek | COL | CHC | 117.2 | 4.05 | 4.08 | 1.39 | 25.0% | 18.1% | 8.8% | 0.69 | 1.64 |
| Milone | MIN | CWS | 118 | 4.19 | 4.57 | 1.40 | 43.8% | 14.5% | 7.1% | 1.22 | 1.00 |
| Noesi | CWS | MIN | 172.1 | 4.75 | 4.34 | 1.37 | 26.7% | 16.8% | 7.6% | 1.46 | 0.94 |
| Simon | DET | CLE | 196.1 | 3.44 | 4.17 | 1.21 | 63.2% | 15.5% | 6.9% | 1.01 | 1.57 |
| McAllister | CLE | DET | 86 | 5.23 | 3.86 | 1.44 | 33.3% | 19.6% | 7.4% | 0.73 | 1.13 |
| Miley | BOS | NYY | 201.1 | 4.34 | 3.67 | 1.40 | 33.3% | 21.1% | 8.7% | 1.03 | 1.82 |
| Eovaldi | NYY | BOS | 199.2 | 4.37 | 3.91 | 1.33 | 50.0% | 16.6% | 5.0% | 0.63 | 1.36 |
| Gonzalez | WAS | PHI | 158.2 | 3.57 | 3.43 | 1.20 | 46.7% | 24.8% | 8.6% | 0.57 | 1.22 |
| Williams | PHI | WAS | 115 | 4.77 | 4.03 | 1.40 | 16.5% | 7.2% | 0.94 | 1.38 | |
| Ramirez | TBR | MIA | 75.1 | 5.26 | 4.51 | 1.54 | 27.3% | 17.8% | 10.1% | 1.55 | 0.87 |
| Haren | MIA | TBR | 186 | 4.02 | 3.74 | 1.18 | 30.0% | 18.7% | 4.6% | 1.31 | 1.06 |
| Lackey | STL | CIN | 198 | 3.82 | 3.64 | 1.28 | 57.9% | 19.7% | 5.6% | 1.09 | 1.31 |
| Marquis | CIN | STL | |||||||||
| Niese | NYM | ATL | 187.2 | 3.40 | 3.78 | 1.27 | 41.2% | 17.6% | 5.7% | 0.82 | 1.60 |
| Stults | ATL | NYM | 176 | 4.30 | 4.33 | 1.38 | 26.3% | 14.6% | 5.9% | 1.33 | 1.22 |
| Locke | PIT | MIL | 131.1 | 3.91 | 4.07 | 1.27 | 66.7% | 16.2% | 7.3% | 1.10 | 1.71 |
| Fiers | MIL | PIT | 71.2 | 2.13 | 2.94 | 0.88 | 27.7% | 6.2% | 0.88 | 0.71 | |
| Anderson | LAD | ARI | 43.1 | 2.91 | 3.61 | 1.32 | 20.0% | 16.1% | 7.2% | 0.21 | 2.77 |
| Anderson | ARI | LAD | 114.1 | 4.01 | 3.78 | 1.37 | 40.0% | 21.6% | 8.2% | 1.26 | 1.12 |
| Vargas | KCR | LAA | 187 | 3.71 | 4.14 | 1.27 | 68.4% | 16.2% | 5.2% | 0.91 | 0.99 |
| Santiago | LAA | KCR | 127.1 | 3.75 | 4.38 | 1.36 | 16.7% | 19.9% | 9.7% | 1.06 | 0.61 |
| Walker | SEA | OAK | 38 | 2.61 | 3.97 | 1.29 | 21.3% | 11.3% | 0.47 | 1.78 | |
| Pomeranz | OAK | SEA | 69 | 2.35 | 3.62 | 1.12 | 25.0% | 23.0% | 9.4% | 0.91 | 1.27 |
| Lincecum | SFG | SDP | 155.2 | 4.74 | 3.95 | 1.39 | 40.0% | 19.9% | 9.4% | 1.10 | 1.60 |
| Morrow | SDP | SFG | 33.1 | 5.67 | 4.23 | 1.65 | 20.3% | 12.2% | 0.54 | 1.67 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Gio Gonzalez WAS (at PHI) – Seriously, Nats pitchers might as well have a reserved parking space in the All In section. On a low-grade day that is full of back-end rotation pieces, Gio takes the cake as the only number four starter worthy of top billing. The fact that he is playing a weak Phillies team that is vulnerable to lefties just sweetens the pot.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Taijuan Walker SEA (vs. OAK) – Walker has been on prospect lists for awhile and was expected to make an impact in mid-2014, but shoulder woes slowed his roll. Walker is back with a vengeance this spring, and he seized the fifth starter’s job in such convincing fashion that the M’s went ahead and dealt his competition (Erasmo Ramirez) to the opposite corner of the country. The A’s spent the entire off-season purging power, so the flyball hell of Oakland Coliseum should only help Walker to squelch the balls in play.
Nathan Eovaldi NYY (vs. BOS) – Eovaldi has been a popular sleeper pick for years, thanks to one of the hardest fastballs in the league and a slider that can be punishing at times. He also has a solid delivery that fuels pitch command, but he has been dogged by the need to add an off-speed pitch to use against opposing left-handers. He experimented with a change-up the past couple of springs but wasn’t able to get the pitch game-ready in time for the season. Enter the split. Captain Eo added a split-finger fastball to his repertoire this spring, potentially allowing him to achieve the velocity-difference and fading action of the change without the complicated grips and arms angles. We’ve seen this act before only to be burned when the new pitch gets ditched, so I will have to see it to believe it this time, but the ease of learning the splitter gives me optimism.
Wade Miley BOS (at NYY) – This recommendation is all about the splits and the match-up. Miley has shown glimpses of coalescing his skills as a starting pitcher, but just when he gains a manager’s trust he throws a five-spot onto the stat sheet. Lucky for him that the Yankees lean so heavily to the left: eight of the nine regular starters are either lefties or switch-hitters, with the only pure right-handed bat belonging to fan favorite Alex Rodriguez… and A-Rod has a reverse platoon split in his career. In fact, the only regulars who favor southpaws are ancient switchies Carlos Beltran and Mark Teixeira. On a thin day with a need to pick through the pitcher pool with a fine-toothed comb, Miley might just sneak a quality start by the censors.
John Lackey STL (at CIN) – Yeah, he’s old, the K rate is just decent, and he gives up a lot of contact. He has also maintained an ultra-low walk rate for the past two seasons with an ERA in the mid-to-high three’s and tossed 387 innings. He’s not a sexy pick, but this is his first spring with St. Louis and the Cardinals are well-versed in converting veteran pitchers into valuable assets.
Mike Fiers MIL (vs. PIT) – If one focuses on just the 71 innings that he pitched in the majors last season, then Fiers seems like a value pick with upside to spare. The issue is that the 30-year old preempted his mini-breakout with a disaster season, and though his minor-league track record reflects a K-to-walk near 4.5, his mechanical inconsistencies give me pause. Andrew McCutchen has completely owned Fiers in their meetings thus far, and Cutch leads the other Pirates by example.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buehrle | 0.318 | 3.48 | 0.332 | 3.35 | 0.253 | 0.738 | 0.316 | 3.66 | 0.283 | 96.31 | 13.9% |
| Norris | 0.333 | 3.81 | 0.296 | 3.47 | 0.263 | 0.750 | 0.279 | 4.22 | 0.24 | 98.07 | 20.2% |
| McHugh | 0.272 | 2.58 | 0.252 | 2.95 | 0.249 | 0.663 | 0.259 | 3.11 | 0.205 | 99.44 | 25.4% |
| Holland | 0.261 | 0.99 | 0.267 | 0.747 | 0.296 | 2.19 | 0.243 | 95.33 | 17.2% | ||
| Wood | 0.276 | 4.13 | 0.371 | 5.37 | 0.278 | 0.796 | 0.320 | 4.38 | 0.272 | 98.23 | 18.7% |
| Matzek | 0.199 | 2.27 | 0.372 | 4.71 | 0.257 | 0.726 | 0.312 | 3.78 | 0.263 | 88.20 | 18.1% |
| Milone | 0.323 | 3.86 | 0.339 | 4.28 | 0.256 | 0.717 | 0.290 | 4.69 | 0.268 | 87.50 | 14.5% |
| Noesi | 0.320 | 4.50 | 0.367 | 5.12 | 0.251 | 0.715 | 0.290 | 4.83 | 0.267 | 83.42 | 16.8% |
| Simon | 0.313 | 3.92 | 0.296 | 2.97 | 0.254 | 0.722 | 0.265 | 4.33 | 0.241 | 94.19 | 15.5% |
| McAllister | 0.343 | 5.27 | 0.316 | 5.20 | 0.274 | 0.745 | 0.332 | 3.45 | 0.275 | 66.45 | 19.6% |
| Miley | 0.326 | 5.32 | 0.331 | 4.06 | 0.260 | 0.712 | 0.317 | 3.98 | 0.263 | 97.48 | 21.1% |
| Eovaldi | 0.336 | 4.30 | 0.304 | 4.45 | 0.245 | 0.682 | 0.323 | 3.37 | 0.277 | 96.91 | 16.6% |
| Gonzalez | 0.284 | 3.79 | 0.293 | 3.51 | 0.240 | 0.674 | 0.294 | 3.03 | 0.226 | 97.15 | 24.8% |
| Williams | 0.348 | 4.70 | 0.320 | 4.85 | 0.248 | 0.709 | 0.313 | 4.16 | 0.275 | 49.51 | 16.5% |
| Ramirez | 0.353 | 5.23 | 0.371 | 5.29 | 0.247 | 0.690 | 0.307 | 5.38 | 0.275 | 76.06 | 17.8% |
| Haren | 0.290 | 3.42 | 0.333 | 4.63 | 0.246 | 0.681 | 0.276 | 4.09 | 0.248 | 96.75 | 18.7% |
| Lackey | 0.316 | 3.29 | 0.327 | 4.38 | 0.238 | 0.657 | 0.305 | 3.78 | 0.262 | 99.29 | 19.7% |
| Marquis | 0.252 | 0.679 | |||||||||
| Niese | 0.289 | 4.21 | 0.329 | 3.14 | 0.255 | 0.712 | 0.304 | 3.67 | 0.263 | 93.07 | 17.6% |
| Stults | 0.342 | 5.29 | 0.341 | 3.93 | 0.230 | 0.633 | 0.296 | 4.63 | 0.276 | 88.53 | 14.6% |
| Locke | 0.238 | 2.93 | 0.342 | 4.20 | 0.237 | 0.705 | 0.278 | 4.37 | 0.252 | 93.43 | 16.2% |
| Fiers | 0.234 | 2.23 | 0.240 | 2.06 | 0.260 | 0.746 | 0.224 | 2.99 | 0.179 | 80.14 | 27.7% |
| Anderson | 0.324 | 4.63 | 0.291 | 2.27 | 0.243 | 0.672 | 0.314 | 2.99 | 0.263 | 83.00 | 16.1% |
| Anderson | 0.314 | 3.76 | 0.363 | 4.23 | 0.271 | 0.746 | 0.313 | 4.22 | 0.264 | 90.10 | 21.6% |
| Vargas | 0.296 | 2.51 | 0.321 | 4.10 | 0.273 | 0.763 | 0.299 | 3.84 | 0.265 | 100.10 | 16.2% |
| Santiago | 0.274 | 2.34 | 0.326 | 4.27 | 0.266 | 0.710 | 0.288 | 4.29 | 0.246 | 75.77 | 19.9% |
| Walker | 0.333 | 2.86 | 0.229 | 2.25 | 0.246 | 0.709 | 0.282 | 3.68 | 0.223 | 78.13 | 21.3% |
| Pomeranz | 0.300 | 1.20 | 0.259 | 2.67 | 0.240 | 0.636 | 0.244 | 3.77 | 0.203 | 56.90 | 23.0% |
| Lincecum | 0.335 | 4.81 | 0.346 | 4.68 | 0.229 | 0.640 | 0.299 | 4.31 | 0.255 | 80.76 | 19.9% |
| Morrow | 0.412 | 6.35 | 0.318 | 4.96 | 0.253 | 0.695 | 0.357 | 3.73 | 0.285 | 47.54 | 20.3% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Brett Anderson LAD (vs. ARI) – The injury bug that has chased Anderson throughout his career is much less of a concern to the DFS gamer, but what should create worry is an Arizona lineup that has Paul Goldschmidt (1009 OPS vs. LHB), Mark Trumbo (817 OPS vs. LHP), and A.J. Pollock (105 OPS points higher vs. LHP). The Dodgers might also limit his pitches in the first outing of the year, so there is considerable risk that Mr. Anderson will take the wrong pill.
Brandon Morrow SD (vs. SF) – There’s no telling how much of Morrow’s stuff survived the trip to San Diego, and he represents a risky gamble who’s not for the faint of heart.
Dan Haren MIA (vs. TB) – The end is nigh for Haren, but it’s commendable that he stuck around to pitch for the Marlins after getting traded away from the west coast. It seems like he has dealt with myriad injuries in recent years, but Haren has 10 straight campaigns of 30 or more starts, and the control artists has a career walk rate below 2.0 walks per nine innings with a K-to-walk ratio over 4.0. The K rate has held remarkably consistent over the years, falling between 7.0 and 9.0 in every season since 2006. His stuff is too hittable nowadays, resulting in below-average run prevention for three years running, but a weak matchup like Tampa might be the right opportunity to give the veteran another try.
Drew Pomeranz OAK vs. SEA – The southpaw helps to neutralize the up-the-middle bats of the Mariners, taking Cano and especially Seager down a peg, but questionable run support and a sketchy K history are working against him.
Tim Lincecum SF (at SD) – He’s obviously not the barnstorming bandit that he used to be, but Lincecum has a long history of getting out the Pads two biggest hitters, Justin Upton and Matt Kemp, and his gameplan may be enough to post a surprisngly solid performance.
Jerome Williams PHI (vs. WAS) – Williams has his moments, and he is facing a half-stacked Nats team that will be missing Anthony Rendon, Jayson Werth, and Denard Span. He’s not a bad player to eat some innings, but fantasy players will want to look elsewhere despite the soft matchup. He lacks K’s, has a history of blow-ups, and is only recommended if you have a penchant for walking tightropes.
Jon Niese NYM (at ATL) – Don’t expect much in the K department, but Niese is a sneaky pickup today as one is rooting through the dumpster. He’s facing the weak-hitting Braves and Niese’s left-handedness neutralizes Freddie Freeman (aka the only threat in the lineup) to the tune of 140 points of OPS.
Chase Anderson ARI (vs. LAD) – The Dodgers are a risky matchup, so only break glass in case of emergency.
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Hector Santiago LAA vs. KC
John Locke PIT (at MIL) – Milwaukee is stacked to the hilt with lefty-mashing bats, from the insane platoon split of Ryan Braun (1037 career OPS vs. LHP, should be back in lineup) to veteran Aramis Ramirez (903 OPS) and Jonathan Lucroy (887 OPS)
Jason Vargas KC at LAA
Eric Stults ATL vs. NYM
Jason Marquis CIN vs. STL
Steve Geltz TB at MIA – The Rays’ rotation is beset by ravaged, so they are already going to an all-bullpen game. Geltz might get the first couple frames, but he has never started a game as a pro (majors or minors), so expect his outing to be short-lived.
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window