Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, April 17th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2015-04-19 21:37:39

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success.

Editor’s Note: The Pirates have changed starting pitchers. Jeff Locke is no longer starting. Vance Worley, a right-handed pitcher, will start instead.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Samardzija	CWS	DET	219.2	2.99	3.06	1.07	60.0%	23.0%	4.9%	0.82	1.64
Price	DET	CWS	248.1	3.26	2.72	1.08	52.4%	26.9%	3.8%	0.91	1.08
Shields	SDP	CHC	227	3.21	3.59	1.18	42.9%	19.2%	4.7%	0.91	1.33
Hammel	CHC	SDP	176.1	3.47	3.50	1.12	47.4%	22.1%	6.2%	1.17	1.03
Nelson	MIL	PIT	69.1	4.93	3.76	1.46		18.3%	6.1%	0.78	1.52
Locke	PIT	MIL	131.1	3.91	4.07	1.27	66.7%	16.2%	7.3%	1.10	1.71
O’Sullivan	PHI	WAS	12.2	6.39	4.31	1.34		13.5%	3.9%	2.13	1.00
Scherzer	WAS	PHI	220.1	3.15	2.98	1.18	60.0%	27.9%	7.0%	0.74	0.88
Teheran	ATL	TOR	221	2.89	3.68	1.08	70.0%	21.0%	5.8%	0.90	0.79
Hutchison	TOR	ATL	184.2	4.48	3.59	1.26	31.6%	23.4%	7.6%	1.12	0.80
Warren	NYY	TBR	78.2	2.97	3.01	1.11		23.5%	7.4%	0.46	1.46
Karns	TBR	NYY	12	4.50	3.24	0.92		26.5%	8.2%	2.25	1.00
Phelps	MIA	NYM	113	4.38	4.21	1.42	42.9%	18.5%	9.3%	1.04	1.18
Colon	NYM	MIA	202.1	4.09	3.75	1.23	42.1%	17.9%	3.6%	0.98	1.02
Jimenez	BAL	BOS	125.1	4.81	4.61	1.52	27.8%	21.0%	13.9%	1.01	1.13
Kelly	BOS	BAL	96.1	4.20	4.29	1.35	40.0%	15.9%	10.1%	0.75	2.31
Gray	OAK	KCR	219	3.08	3.56	1.19	60.0%	20.4%	8.2%	0.62	2.19
Guthrie	KCR	OAK	202.2	4.13	4.34	1.30	42.1%	14.4%	5.7%	1.02	1.19
Weaver	LAA	HOU	213.1	3.59	4.18	1.21	52.4%	19.0%	7.3%	1.14	0.69
Hernandez	HOU	LAA	164.2	4.10	4.67	1.39	35.3%	14.5%	10.1%	1.04	1.66
Kluber	CLE	MIN	235.2	2.44	2.61	1.09	57.1%	28.3%	5.4%	0.53	1.57
Pelfrey	MIN	CLE	23.2	7.99	6.45	1.99		8.4%	15.1%	1.90	1.15
Cueto	CIN	STL	243.2	2.25	3.15	0.96	76.2%	25.2%	6.8%	0.81	1.34
Wacha	STL	CIN	107	3.20	3.74	1.20	53.3%	21.0%	7.4%	0.50	1.15
Gallardo	TEX	SEA	192.1	3.51	3.78	1.29	50.0%	17.9%	6.6%	0.98	1.75
Happ	SEA	TEX	158	4.22	3.94	1.34	30.8%	19.8%	7.6%	1.25	1.03
Kendrick	COL	LAD	199	4.61	4.45	1.36	30.0%	14.0%	6.6%	1.13	1.29
Kershaw	LAD	COL	198.1	1.77	2.09	0.86	66.7%	31.9%	4.1%	0.41	1.77
Collmenter	ARI	SFG	179.1	3.46	4.18	1.13	29.4%	16.0%	5.4%	0.90	0.97
Peavy	SFG	ARI	202.2	3.73	4.11	1.28	42.1%	18.5%	7.4%	1.02	0.92

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Clayton Kershaw LAD (vs. COL) – Kershaw has been uncharacteristically malleable in his first two starts of the season, meanwhile the Rockies have been scoring runs away from Coors. It’s possible that this journey into Bizarro World continues, but I would bank on things starting to come back into balance.

Max Scherzer WAS (vs. PHI) – Scherzer is an all-in play no matter who he’s up against, so it’s a slam dunk when he’s up against a weak offense like that they trot out every day in Philly. You know things are bad when Jeff Francoeur is your cleanup hitter (assuming it’s not 2007). Expect big strikeout totals and few baserunners for the Phillies today.

Corey Kluber CLE (at MIN) – The Twins have been atrocious on offense for the first two weeks of the year, and now they face the reigning AL Cy Young winner. He’s in the same boat as Scherzer, with the talent to go all-in against anyone plus the soft opponent to up the odds of a monster outing.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Johnny Cueto CIN (at STL) – The two things keeping Cueto out of the all-in section are A) the track record and B) the opponent. Much of the discussion surrounding Cueto has been focused on his jump in innings last season, but I was also surprised by the spike in K rate, which rose above 25% after years in the 17-21% range. St. Louis not only has a deep lineup, but they have been facing Cueto as an inter-division foe for years, so they’re not fazed by his exaggerated twist and camera pose at max lift. They have fared the best of all NL Central opponents against Cueto in his tenure, with a career 4.01 ERA across 110 innings of work.

Sonny Gray OAK (at KC) – The Royals have been on a tear, but so has Gray. After firing a no-hitter into the eighth inning on Opening Day, Gray followed it up by shutting down the Mariners with one run allowed over 7.3 innings. The strikeouts leave a bit to be desired this season and aren’t likely to spike against the anti-whiffing Royals, but high K totals are not part of Gray’s value proposition.

Julio Teheran ATL (at TOR) – Teheran represents a great buy-low opportunity this year, especially in leagues that count quality starts, but he will face a stiff test today against a powerful Blue Jays club, one that could expose his weakness for the long ball.

Michael Wacha STL (vs. CIN) – Previously a fastball-changeup guy, the curve and cutter that Wacha added last season have carried over into 2015. He is excellent at holding baserunners chained to the bag, which should help to quiet the Billy Hamilton threat should he get on base, and it will be interesting to see how Wacha utilizes his pitch selection as he gets deeper into the ballgame.

Jered Weaver LAA (at HOU) – Weaver is not usually much of a strikeout guy but he is facing the right team to see a spike in the K category. He is an extreme flyball pitcher who does very well at the Big A in Anaheim but can be vulnerable to wall-clearing flies in other ballparks.

Jimmy Nelson MIL (at PIT) – Nelson was a beast in his first game of the season, blanking these same Pirates over seven innings while piling up nine strikeouts and a pair of walks. Andrew McCutchen is dealing with a sore knee, and without Cutch the whole lineup loses its luster. This time Nelson will be in PPNC Park rather than pitching in front of the home crowd, and it will be interesting to see if the Pirates make any changes to their approach in the quest for more success on this turn. Don’t expect a repeat of the first matchup.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Samardzija	0.292	2.58	0.279	3.34	0.274	0.745	0.283	3.20	0.231	101.18	23.0%
Price	0.292	3.19	0.283	3.28	0.256	0.717	0.306	2.78	0.238	109.71	26.9%
Shields	0.309	3.02	0.310	3.43	0.233	0.671	0.295	3.59	0.253	106.82	19.2%
Hammel	0.305	3.09	0.297	3.78	0.229	0.640	0.272	3.92	0.232	93.20	22.1%
Nelson	0.353	4.84	0.349	5.03	0.260	0.746	0.344	3.78	0.289	79.21	18.3%
Locke	0.238	2.93	0.342	4.20	0.237	0.705	0.278	4.37	0.252	93.43	16.2%
O’Sullivan							0.300	5.58	0.3	0.00	13.5%
Scherzer	0.305	3.60	0.279	2.49	0.243	0.662	0.315	2.85	0.235	110.24	27.9%
Teheran	0.301	3.31	0.262	2.46	0.263	0.750	0.267	3.49	0.227	99.12	21.0%
Hutchison	0.353	5.69	0.273	3.07	0.236	0.651	0.293	3.85	0.241	95.34	23.4%
Warren	0.236	2.21	0.307	3.64	0.246	0.681	0.272	2.89	0.212	19.30	23.5%
Karns					0.240	0.677	0.148	5.72	0.163	102.50	26.5%
Phelps	0.314	4.30	0.356	4.47	0.241	0.685	0.301	4.41	0.259	60.16	18.5%
Colon	0.299	4.10	0.331	4.08	0.247	0.690	0.307	3.57	0.269	97.13	17.9%
Jimenez	0.354	5.43	0.308	4.04	0.245	0.682	0.289	4.67	0.239	92.24	21.0%
Kelly	0.318	3.60	0.307	4.86	0.257	0.732	0.274	4.37	0.24	92.94	15.9%
Gray	0.289	2.81	0.277	3.40	0.261	0.682	0.277	3.46	0.229	99.85	20.4%
Guthrie	0.364	5.13	0.270	2.97	0.246	0.709	0.294	4.32	0.268	101.09	14.4%
Weaver	0.321	3.79	0.277	3.27	0.233	0.673	0.267	4.19	0.236	98.59	19.0%
Hernandez	0.333	3.94	0.323	4.23	0.254	0.716	0.266	4.85	0.244	85.53	14.5%
Kluber	0.304	2.53	0.246	2.34	0.251	0.715	0.316	2.35	0.232	102.94	28.3%
Pelfrey	0.294	4.41			0.254	0.722	0.286	7.57	0.293	0.00	8.4%
Cueto	0.257	2.05	0.261	2.44	0.252	0.679	0.238	3.30	0.192	107.62	25.2%
Wacha	0.266	2.96	0.306	3.42	0.238	0.657	0.288	3.17	0.232	89.16	21.0%
Gallardo	0.287	2.77	0.328	4.08	0.246	0.697	0.294	3.94	0.257	100.50	17.9%
Happ	0.379	5.17	0.327	3.98	0.276	0.755	0.297	4.27	0.258	90.33	19.8%
Kendrick	0.360	5.34	0.321	4.08	0.271	0.746	0.290	4.57	0.269	96.94	14.0%
Kershaw	0.215	0.96	0.237	1.96	0.278	0.796	0.278	1.81	0.194	100.81	31.9%
Collmenter	0.327	3.22	0.268	3.69	0.253	0.695	0.267	3.87	0.241	82.39	16.0%
Peavy	0.334	4.45	0.317	3.04	0.250	0.679	0.289	4.11	0.251	100.78	18.5%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Drew Hutchison TOR (vs ATL) – He got blasted in his last start at the hands of the Orioles, as a penchant for elevated fastballs left him vulnerable to the big Baltimore bats and the offense-friendly confines of Camden Yards. He faces a much weaker opponent this time around, capturing the Braves on the heels of their winnings streak but breathing a sigh of relief that he only has one or two hitters to fret in the Atlanta lineup.

Jake Peavy SF (vs. Arizona) – The perception surrounding Peavy is one of inconsistency, based partly on his combination of injuries and uniform changes in the past few seasons, and partly from the spot he used to occupy atop the perch of MLB pitchers. However, looking at the stat-sheet reveals a decent line of performance once one looks past the ERA, with an above-average walk rate and a WHIP below 1.19 for 7 of the past 11 years – the worst full-season marks were 1.28 (2014, 1.26 (2011), and 1.23 in 2010 and ’06.

Ubaldo Jimenez BAL (at BOS) – Jimenez has spent years trapped in my basement of untouchable players for fantasy purposes, but what I saw from him against the Blue Jays has me thinking twice. His mechanics have long been an issue, and though he still has the technique that has turned him into a mechanical mess over the years, Jimenez was noticeably more stable in first game of the season. Ubaldo typically has a significant bit of wobble in his delivery, with an imbalance side-to-side that takes place throughout the motion; that wobble had all but disappeared in his previous start, and he directing his energy on a more efficient line than I had seen from him in years (maybe ever).

Yovani Gallardo TEX (at SEA)
Joe Kelly BOS (vs. BAL)
Bartolo Colon NYM (vs. MIA)
Nate Karns TB (vs. NYY)

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.