Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, April 24th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| deGrom | NYM | NYY | 140.1 | 2.69 | 3.19 | 1.14 | 50.0% | 25.5% | 7.6% | 0.45 | 1.44 |
| Pineda | NYY | NYM | 76.1 | 1.89 | 3.38 | 0.83 | 75.0% | 20.3% | 2.4% | 0.59 | 0.92 |
| Wood | ATL | PHI | 171.2 | 2.78 | 3.16 | 1.14 | 58.3% | 24.5% | 6.5% | 0.84 | 1.33 |
| Harang | PHI | ATL | 204.1 | 3.57 | 4.18 | 1.40 | 75.0% | 18.4% | 8.1% | 0.66 | 1.04 |
| Porcello | BOS | BAL | 204.2 | 3.43 | 3.88 | 1.23 | 55.6% | 15.4% | 4.9% | 0.79 | 1.69 |
| Gonzalez | BAL | BOS | 159 | 3.23 | 4.40 | 1.30 | 40.0% | 16.5% | 7.6% | 1.42 | 0.89 |
| Salazar | CLE | DET | 110 | 4.25 | 3.33 | 1.38 | 12.5% | 25.3% | 7.4% | 1.06 | 0.82 |
| Greene | DET | CLE | 78.2 | 3.78 | 3.41 | 1.40 | 100.0% | 23.5% | 8.4% | 0.92 | 1.78 |
| Dickey | TOR | TBR | 215.2 | 3.71 | 4.08 | 1.23 | 47.6% | 18.9% | 8.1% | 1.09 | 1.12 |
| Smyly | TBR | TOR | 153 | 3.24 | 3.69 | 1.16 | 50.0% | 21.5% | 6.8% | 1.06 | 0.84 |
| Zimmermann | WAS | MIA | 199.2 | 2.66 | 3.15 | 1.07 | 52.6% | 22.8% | 3.6% | 0.59 | 1.12 |
| Latos | MIA | WAS | 102.1 | 3.25 | 4.08 | 1.15 | 66.7% | 17.6% | 6.2% | 0.79 | 0.94 |
| Lester | CHC | CIN | 219.2 | 2.46 | 3.09 | 1.10 | 65.0% | 24.9% | 5.4% | 0.66 | 1.14 |
| Leake | CIN | CHC | 214.1 | 3.70 | 3.51 | 1.25 | 45.0% | 18.2% | 5.5% | 0.97 | 2.02 |
| Martinez | STL | MIL | 89.1 | 4.03 | 3.45 | 1.41 | 21.8% | 9.3% | 0.40 | 1.88 | |
| Garza | MIL | STL | 163.1 | 3.64 | 4.02 | 1.18 | 35.0% | 18.5% | 7.4% | 0.66 | 1.20 |
| Duffy | KCR | CWS | 149.1 | 2.53 | 4.31 | 1.11 | 57.1% | 18.7% | 8.8% | 0.72 | 0.78 |
| Quintana | CWS | KCR | 200.1 | 3.32 | 3.50 | 1.24 | 50.0% | 21.5% | 6.3% | 0.45 | 1.35 |
| Heston | SFG | COL | |||||||||
| Butler | COL | SFG | 16 | 6.75 | 5.65 | 1.88 | 4.0% | 9.2% | 1.13 | 2.20 | |
| Cole | PIT | ARI | 138 | 3.65 | 3.23 | 1.21 | 28.6% | 24.2% | 7.0% | 0.72 | 1.55 |
| Collmenter | ARI | PIT | 179.1 | 3.46 | 4.18 | 1.13 | 29.4% | 16.0% | 5.4% | 0.90 | 0.97 |
| Rodriguez | TEX | LAA | 26.2 | 6.75 | 4.29 | 1.69 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 3.38 | 1.00 | |
| Richards | LAA | TEX | 168.2 | 2.61 | 3.20 | 1.04 | 65.0% | 24.2% | 7.5% | 0.27 | 1.82 |
| Keuchel | HOU | OAK | 200 | 2.93 | 3.11 | 1.18 | 50.0% | 18.1% | 5.9% | 0.50 | 3.30 |
| Kazmir | OAK | HOU | 190.1 | 3.55 | 3.61 | 1.16 | 63.2% | 21.1% | 6.4% | 0.76 | 1.18 |
| Hughes | MIN | SEA | 209.2 | 3.52 | 3.17 | 1.13 | 45.0% | 21.8% | 1.9% | 0.69 | 0.91 |
| Hernandez | SEA | MIN | 236 | 2.14 | 2.50 | 0.92 | 81.0% | 27.2% | 5.0% | 0.61 | 2.14 |
| Greinke | LAD | SDP | 202.1 | 2.71 | 2.87 | 1.15 | 50.0% | 25.2% | 5.2% | 0.85 | 1.70 |
| Cashner | SDP | LAD | 123.1 | 2.55 | 3.70 | 1.13 | 75.0% | 18.4% | 5.7% | 0.51 | 1.54 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Felix Hernandez SEA (vs. MIN) – King Felix is an auto-start no matter the team that he is facing, but the Twins offer an especially cushy landing for the 11-year veteran. He is poised for a big day in the Emerald City.
Jordan Zimmermann WAS (at MIA) – Zimmermann has had a rough start to the season, as the defense behind him has endured some untimely misplays that tarnished the right-hander’s bottom line. Whether outfield miscues or botched double plays, Zimmermann could only watch as baserunners danced around the carousel of the baseball diamond. He’ll have his hands full with Giancarlo Stanton todat, who has a career line of .269/.387/.654 with three homers in 31 plate appearances versus the right-hander.
Zack Greinke LAD (at SD) – In his last outing, Greinke tossed a bare bones quality start against the Rockies (in L.A.), and about the only thing remarkable about the game was that it was Greinke’s worst start of the year. He gave up just a pair of hits across six frames against these Pads in his first start of 2015, surrendering just a single run, and he didn’t have the benefit of San Diego’s dense marine layer in that initial stint. The draw has long been to look to San Diego if want low-scoring games, but the Padres have a powerful lineup that has been clicking as the NL’s most potent offense.
Gerrit Cole PIT (at ARI) – Cole is starting to live up to the potential that was heaped upon his shoulders a year ago. He has 20 strikeouts against five walks in his first 17 frames of 2015, kicking off the season in high-octane situations at Cincinnati and home against the Tigers. The stage is set for a big night in Phoenix, and Cole has the type of arsenal (with multiple breaking balls) to shut down Paul Goldschmidt; knock down the kingpin, and the rest will fall.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Jon Lester CHC (at CIN) – Lester is in an ideal situation, as the biggest bats in the Cincy lineup (Joey Votto, Jay Bruce) are particularly vulnerable to left-handers. The biggest threat to a southpaw is Devon Mesoraco, who has been sidelined with a hip injury. Of course, all of this was true 11 days ago when Lester faced the Reds in Wrigley, and on that day he gave up 10 hits and six earned runs. Billy Hamilton wasn’t even in the lineup for that game, and he could have a field day given Lester’s issues with holding base runners.
Andrew Cashner SD (vs. LAD) – When you look past the three home runs that were hit by Adrian Gonzalez, Cashner didn’t a bad day in his first start of the year. Of course that’s a meaningless caveat, because those runs can’t be erased and Cashner has to face Gonzalez again, starting tonight in San Diego. He faces off with Greinke in a key matchup between NL West contenders, and though his first few starts have featured some shaky moments, Cashner has quietly upped the K rate this season (20 strikeouts in 17 frames).
Michael Pineda NYY (vs. NYM) – He’s been hit frequently in his starts so far, giving up 22 safeties across 18 innings stretched over three ball games. The K and walk numbers are certainly there, with a 20-to-2 ratio that has held firm over his first few starts. He faces a Mets team that has won 11 consecutive games despite a rash of injuries, and Pineda is in a great position to put an end to that streak tonight.
Jacob deGrom NYM (at NYY) – He just continues to impress, with his stuff, his mechanics, and his moxie. Many pitchers start the season a bit behind on the velocity scale, but deGrom has gained a half-tick over last season’s average, sitting at a comfortable 95 mph with his fastball.
Alex Wood ATL (at PHI) – Wood continues to blow minds with his Tasmanian delivery yet crisp command, and I have given up trying to understand his delivery. He has a great matchup against the Phillies today, with left-handedness that mutes the biggest threats in the lineup, a factor which becomes increasingly important as division foes get more looks at Wood’s unorthodox motion.
Carlos Martinez STL (at MIL) – Martinez has been surprisingly efficient this season, maintaining reasonable pitch counts and piling up the K’s. All three runs that he has given up this season have come on solo homers, a topic that would typically be a bigger issue against the Brewers, but Car-Mart is fortunate to be facing a Milwaukee club that’s missing Carlos Gomez, Jonathan Lucroy, and Scooter Gennett.
Garrett Richards LAA (vs. TEX) – Richards missed spring training in his recovery from the horrific knee injury that ended his 2014 season, and the results from his first start of the season revealed the potential downsides associated with a pitcher’s lower half. Prior to the injury, Richards had a delivery that was high on power and low on stability; he has returned with the same basic attributes, along with a compromised foundation that further disrupts his balance. I worry that it will be a long road back to prominence.
Jose Quintana CHW (vs. KC) – Quintana is coming off the worst start of his career, a nine-run burn at the hands of the Detroit Tigers. He has a much softer opponent in the next round and is well stationed for a rebound, facing a Kansas City ballclub whose best hitters will be turned into jelly by Quintana’s southern paw.
Scott Kazmir OAK (vs. HOU) – Kazmir wrecked the Astros 11 days ago, striking out eight against three walks and three hits over 6.0 innings of work. Kaz needed just 91 pitches to get those 18 outs, and now he will likely be given a longer leash against a Houston club that has scored the third-fewest runs per game in the American League.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| deGrom | 0.289 | 2.34 | 0.264 | 2.94 | 0.240 | 0.677 | 0.297 | 2.67 | 0.225 | 101.64 | 25.5% |
| Pineda | 0.233 | 1.33 | 0.230 | 2.52 | 0.241 | 0.685 | 0.233 | 2.71 | 0.198 | 87.69 | 20.3% |
| Wood | 0.299 | 2.09 | 0.288 | 3.01 | 0.240 | 0.674 | 0.295 | 3.25 | 0.235 | 76.66 | 24.5% |
| Harang | 0.330 | 2.86 | 0.312 | 4.17 | 0.236 | 0.651 | 0.318 | 3.57 | 0.267 | 102.85 | 18.4% |
| Porcello | 0.320 | 3.12 | 0.302 | 3.83 | 0.257 | 0.732 | 0.298 | 3.67 | 0.265 | 95.47 | 15.4% |
| Gonzalez | 0.340 | 2.81 | 0.321 | 3.72 | 0.245 | 0.682 | 0.273 | 4.89 | 0.253 | 94.52 | 16.5% |
| Salazar | 0.309 | 3.14 | 0.342 | 4.97 | 0.274 | 0.745 | 0.343 | 3.52 | 0.268 | 93.45 | 25.3% |
| Greene | 0.345 | 3.63 | 0.297 | 3.92 | 0.254 | 0.722 | 0.330 | 3.73 | 0.261 | 90.20 | 23.5% |
| Dickey | 0.300 | 2.97 | 0.324 | 4.32 | 0.246 | 0.681 | 0.263 | 4.32 | 0.231 | 103.32 | 18.9% |
| Smyly | 0.216 | 2.54 | 0.334 | 3.53 | 0.247 | 0.699 | 0.278 | 3.77 | 0.237 | 92.57 | 21.5% |
| Zimmermann | 0.290 | 2.92 | 0.269 | 2.41 | 0.247 | 0.690 | 0.302 | 2.68 | 0.242 | 91.38 | 22.8% |
| Latos | 0.271 | 2.57 | 0.306 | 3.88 | 0.248 | 0.709 | 0.269 | 3.65 | 0.235 | 95.81 | 17.6% |
| Lester | 0.309 | 1.99 | 0.275 | 2.59 | 0.236 | 0.675 | 0.299 | 2.80 | 0.233 | 109.16 | 24.9% |
| Leake | 0.352 | 3.91 | 0.297 | 3.54 | 0.233 | 0.671 | 0.298 | 3.88 | 0.259 | 97.42 | 18.2% |
| Martinez | 0.363 | 5.65 | 0.275 | 2.91 | 0.254 | 0.708 | 0.333 | 3.18 | 0.26 | 24.19 | 21.8% |
| Garza | 0.285 | 3.27 | 0.289 | 3.93 | 0.252 | 0.679 | 0.268 | 3.54 | 0.228 | 94.00 | 18.5% |
| Duffy | 0.185 | 1.46 | 0.299 | 2.88 | 0.256 | 0.717 | 0.239 | 3.83 | 0.206 | 78.35 | 18.7% |
| Quintana | 0.302 | 4.86 | 0.290 | 2.76 | 0.266 | 0.710 | 0.318 | 2.81 | 0.254 | 104.56 | 21.5% |
| Heston | 0.276 | 0.763 | |||||||||
| Butler | 0.334 | 5.06 | 0.253 | 0.695 | 0.328 | 5.69 | 0.333 | 0.00 | 4.0% | ||
| Cole | 0.326 | 2.81 | 0.294 | 4.38 | 0.250 | 0.679 | 0.311 | 3.23 | 0.243 | 99.86 | 24.2% |
| Collmenter | 0.327 | 3.22 | 0.268 | 3.69 | 0.260 | 0.746 | 0.267 | 3.87 | 0.241 | 82.39 | 16.0% |
| Rodriguez | 0.463 | 6.75 | 0.273 | 0.763 | 0.310 | 7.41 | 0.316 | 0.00 | 16.0% | ||
| Richards | 0.237 | 2.78 | 0.252 | 2.41 | 0.249 | 0.663 | 0.264 | 2.60 | 0.2 | 101.04 | 24.2% |
| Keuchel | 0.268 | 2.61 | 0.299 | 3.03 | 0.239 | 0.681 | 0.295 | 3.21 | 0.248 | 104.14 | 18.1% |
| Kazmir | 0.304 | 3.68 | 0.285 | 3.51 | 0.267 | 0.747 | 0.285 | 3.35 | 0.237 | 93.22 | 21.1% |
| Hughes | 0.272 | 2.71 | 0.321 | 4.47 | 0.246 | 0.697 | 0.324 | 2.65 | 0.265 | 95.19 | 21.8% |
| Hernandez | 0.233 | 1.20 | 0.259 | 3.39 | 0.251 | 0.715 | 0.258 | 2.56 | 0.197 | 101.00 | 27.2% |
| Greinke | 0.277 | 2.06 | 0.304 | 3.30 | 0.229 | 0.640 | 0.311 | 2.97 | 0.245 | 100.31 | 25.2% |
| Cashner | 0.294 | 3.45 | 0.256 | 1.71 | 0.271 | 0.746 | 0.274 | 3.09 | 0.231 | 94.58 | 18.4% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Danny Salazar CLE (at DET) – Salazar presents the ultimate test of risk versus reward. He isn’t likely to pile up the innings, and there’s a good chance that he won’t last long enough to qualify for the win – 7 of 20 starts last season were over before he could escape the fifth. But what he does offer is the unique ability to rack up strikeouts with an unreasonable frequency.
R.A. Dickey TOR (at TB) – Dickey is your classic low-ceiling, high-floor pitcher that pairs well with a more volatile arm. His knuckler has had a mind of its own so far this season, leading to a dozen free passes across 19.3 innings, but butterfly has floated away from hard contact with just 11 hits allowed and a WHIP of 1.19.
Phil Hughes MIN (at SEA) – Hughes matches up well with an impatient Seattle club that is near the bottom of the league in walks drawn. Expect a lot of quick at bats and potentially a long outing from Hughes.
Mat Latos MIA (vs. WAS) – I’ll wait for the eye of the storm to pass overhead before I venture back into those waters.
Shane Greene DET (vs. CLE)
Danny Duffy KC (at CHW)
Dallas Keuchel HOU (at OAK)
Josh Collmenter ARI (vs. PIT)
Mike Leake CIN (vs. CHC)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Miguel Gonzalez BAL (vs. BOS)
Drew Smyly TB (vs. TOR)
Rick Porcello BOS (at BAL)
Matt Garza MIL (vs STL)
Aaron Harang PHI (vs. ATL)
Eddie Butler COL (vs. SF)
Chris Heston SF (at COL)
Wandy Rodriguez TEX (at LAA)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window