Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, June 5th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wada | CHC | WAS | 69.1 | 3.25 | 3.89 | 1.24 | 19.7% | 6.6% | 0.91 | 0.87 | |
| Roark | WAS | CHC | 219 | 2.84 | 4.00 | 1.12 | 52.6% | 16.4% | 5.0% | 0.74 | 1.16 |
| Weaver | LAA | NYY | 264 | 3.75 | 4.27 | 1.20 | 52.4% | 17.6% | 6.5% | 1.23 | 0.73 |
| Eovaldi | NYY | LAA | 241 | 4.33 | 3.93 | 1.36 | 50.0% | 16.8% | 5.2% | 0.71 | 1.40 |
| Lincecum | SFG | PHI | 196.1 | 4.26 | 4.04 | 1.38 | 40.0% | 19.8% | 9.8% | 0.92 | 1.64 |
| Williams | PHI | SFG | 158 | 4.84 | 4.11 | 1.44 | 15.9% | 6.5% | 1.08 | 1.33 | |
| Hernandez | HOU | TOR | 208.1 | 4.10 | 4.66 | 1.35 | 35.3% | 13.9% | 9.5% | 1.08 | 1.72 |
| Sanchez | TOR | HOU | 71 | 2.79 | 4.26 | 1.18 | 17.8% | 13.0% | 0.63 | 2.88 | |
| Tillman | BAL | CLE | 245.2 | 3.81 | 4.39 | 1.29 | 42.9% | 17.0% | 8.2% | 0.99 | 1.03 |
| Marcum | CLE | BAL | |||||||||
| Kazmir | OAK | BOS | 240 | 3.45 | 3.63 | 1.16 | 63.2% | 21.7% | 7.0% | 0.79 | 1.21 |
| Miley | BOS | OAK | 236.2 | 4.53 | 3.88 | 1.42 | 33.3% | 20.1% | 8.9% | 0.99 | 1.68 |
| Ross | SDP | CIN | 241.1 | 3.02 | 3.27 | 1.27 | 66.7% | 24.5% | 9.7% | 0.60 | 2.69 |
| Iglesias | CIN | SDP | 15 | 3.00 | 4.39 | 1.07 | 18.3% | 8.3% | 0.00 | 0.84 | |
| Morton | PIT | ATL | 157.1 | 3.72 | 3.73 | 1.27 | 50.0% | 18.9% | 8.6% | 0.51 | 2.44 |
| Perez | ATL | PIT | |||||||||
| Ryan | DET | CHW | 10.1 | 2.61 | 2.71 | 1.16 | 9.8% | 4.9% | 0.00 | 4.50 | |
| Quintana | CHW | DET | 241.1 | 3.51 | 3.49 | 1.25 | 50.0% | 21.7% | 6.2% | 0.48 | 1.34 |
| Lohse | MIL | MIN | 246 | 3.99 | 4.03 | 1.16 | 50.0% | 17.6% | 5.4% | 1.17 | 0.95 |
| Gibson | MIN | MIL | 227.2 | 4.15 | 4.37 | 1.31 | 52.6% | 13.1% | 7.7% | 0.59 | 2.04 |
| Chi Gonzalez | TEX | KCR | |||||||||
| Volquez | KCR | TEX | 242 | 2.98 | 4.21 | 1.19 | 50.0% | 17.6% | 8.7% | 0.71 | 1.49 |
| Koehler | MIA | COL | 233.1 | 3.90 | 4.20 | 1.29 | 52.6% | 19.0% | 8.8% | 0.89 | 1.08 |
| Butler | COL | MIA | 50 | 5.04 | 5.62 | 1.84 | 9.8% | 12.8% | 0.90 | 2.07 | |
| Niese | NYM | ARI | 231 | 3.23 | 3.84 | 1.29 | 41.2% | 16.8% | 5.8% | 0.82 | 1.78 |
| Hellickson | ARI | NYM | 101.2 | 5.05 | 4.27 | 1.53 | 17.9% | 7.9% | 1.15 | 1.02 | |
| Martinez | STL | LAD | 129.1 | 4.24 | 3.56 | 1.44 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 0.77 | 1.92 | |
| Anderson | LAD | STL | 79.1 | 3.18 | 3.40 | 1.32 | 20.0% | 16.2% | 5.8% | 0.45 | 2.93 |
| Odorizzi | TBR | SEA | 221.1 | 3.70 | 3.62 | 1.20 | 36.8% | 23.4% | 7.2% | 0.89 | 0.70 |
| Happ | SEA | TBR | 203.1 | 3.94 | 3.91 | 1.29 | 30.8% | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.15 | 1.07 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Despite the fact that there is a full slate of games starting at 7:05 EST or later, there is no pitcher worth going All-In on today, and even the Rasing options are limited. It’s a good day to run multiple lineups in order to diversify on sketch starting pitchers, so that one man’s blow-up does not spoil an entire day of DFS.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Tyson Ross SD (at CIN) – From a pure consistency standpoint, no pitcher has outperformed Ross in 2015 – he has allowed exactly 2 or 3 runs in 10 of his 11 starts this season, and the one exception was a four-run effort. The box score included two earned runs in 5 of his 6 starts in May, and though he has yet to reach double-digit strikeouts in a ballgame, Ross has punched out a batter-per-inning or more in 8 of his 11 turns thus far.
Carlos Martinez STL (at LAD) – He has a 20-inning scoreless streak, blanking opponents across his last three turns and having allowed two or fewer runs in 8 of his 10 starts this season. The exceptions were a pair of back-to-back disasters at the start of the month, with 7 earnies allowed in each ballgame, but he and Ross stand out for their relative consistency on a day that is dripping with volatility on the mound. CarMart allowed just one hit and 3 walks across seven frames against these same Dodgers in his last start, and he brings rare upside to a day that is bereft of high-end talent on the mound.
Jake Odorizzi TB (at SEA) – The right-hander gets a very soft opponent today, as the Mariners haven’t scored more than three runs in a ballgame since May 26, though the addition of Mark Trumbo certainly adds to the team’s clout and the up-the-middle bats are finally starting to hit. The X-factor is Robinson Cano, one of the most consistent hitters in the game who has mysteriously lost his way in 2015, and Cano could stand in the way of Odorizzi if the right-hander’s recent issues with the long ball continue into today’s ballgame – Odorizzi allowed three homers against Baltimore in his last turn after just a pair of homers bequeathed in his first 10 starts.
Scott Kazmir OAK (at BOS) – The Red Sox were supposed to be an intimidating draw for pitchers this season, but several of their hitters are performing well below expectations, from rookies like Mookie Betts (681 OPS) to veteran David Ortiz (676 OPS). Off-season imports Pablo Sandoval (658) and Hanley Ramirez (779) have failed to make up the difference, especially with Hanley’s power disappearance since he ran into the wall at Fenway on May 4th. Kazmir had a recent injury scare and is trying to re-establish his value for a likely midseason trade, so the Red Sox pose a solid opportunity for him to get back on track.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wada | 0.244 | 1.17 | 0.339 | 3.66 | 0.221 | 0.751 | 0.296 | 3.75 | 0.251 | 88.15 | 19.7% |
| Roark | 0.305 | 3.34 | 0.267 | 2.30 | 0.242 | 0.694 | 0.273 | 3.56 | 0.241 | 75.80 | 16.4% |
| Weaver | 0.323 | 3.90 | 0.277 | 3.39 | 0.228 | 0.694 | 0.267 | 4.33 | 0.242 | 97.48 | 17.6% |
| Eovaldi | 0.351 | 4.56 | 0.303 | 4.14 | 0.227 | 0.624 | 0.326 | 3.50 | 0.281 | 97.20 | 16.8% |
| Lincecum | 0.303 | 3.75 | 0.351 | 4.60 | 0.207 | 0.567 | 0.297 | 4.11 | 0.25 | 83.05 | 19.8% |
| Williams | 0.343 | 4.63 | 0.343 | 5.24 | 0.245 | 0.673 | 0.320 | 4.30 | 0.285 | 56.00 | 15.9% |
| Hernandez | 0.332 | 3.77 | 0.333 | 4.69 | 0.235 | 0.718 | 0.261 | 4.86 | 0.244 | 86.82 | 13.9% |
| Sanchez | 0.375 | 3.96 | 0.191 | 2.03 | 0.244 | 0.747 | 0.210 | 4.32 | 0.183 | 36.16 | 17.8% |
| Tillman | 0.307 | 3.06 | 0.315 | 4.56 | 0.247 | 0.701 | 0.276 | 4.23 | 0.245 | 99.61 | 17.0% |
| Marcum | 0.483 | 10.80 | 0.227 | 3.86 | 0.281 | 0.835 | |||||
| Kazmir | 0.299 | 3.39 | 0.289 | 3.40 | 0.200 | 0.701 | 0.280 | 3.44 | 0.231 | 94.73 | 21.7% |
| Miley | 0.314 | 5.34 | 0.329 | 4.08 | 0.206 | 0.543 | 0.314 | 4.03 | 0.263 | 95.78 | 20.1% |
| Ross | 0.308 | 3.16 | 0.283 | 2.93 | 0.224 | 0.691 | 0.300 | 3.28 | 0.23 | 100.08 | 24.5% |
| Iglesias | 0.346 | 7.20 | 0.252 | 1.00 | 0.244 | 0.694 | 0.250 | 2.68 | 0.2 | 70.67 | 18.3% |
| Morton | 0.301 | 3.53 | 0.317 | 3.80 | 0.255 | 0.707 | 0.295 | 3.72 | 0.242 | 96.31 | 18.9% |
| Perez | 0.405 | 9.53 | 0.293 | 0.234 | 0.642 | ||||||
| Ryan | 0.391 | 0.00 | 0.281 | 3.72 | 0.194 | 0.529 | 0.286 | 2.94 | 0.256 | 27.17 | 9.8% |
| Quintana | 0.287 | 4.80 | 0.306 | 3.16 | 0.273 | 0.777 | 0.322 | 2.87 | 0.257 | 104.28 | 21.7% |
| Lohse | 0.314 | 3.93 | 0.305 | 4.16 | 0.231 | 0.623 | 0.267 | 4.16 | 0.242 | 97.15 | 17.6% |
| Gibson | 0.305 | 3.56 | 0.301 | 4.59 | 0.232 | 0.650 | 0.283 | 3.93 | 0.255 | 92.00 | 13.1% |
| Chi Gonzalez | 0.311 | 0.817 | |||||||||
| Volquez | 0.298 | 3.31 | 0.282 | 2.70 | 0.193 | 0.559 | 0.257 | 3.97 | 0.222 | 93.25 | 17.6% |
| Koehler | 0.309 | 3.73 | 0.306 | 3.72 | 0.284 | 0.772 | 0.285 | 4.03 | 0.244 | 90.13 | 19.0% |
| Butler | 0.463 | 6.41 | 0.352 | 4.18 | 0.261 | 0.676 | 0.329 | 5.56 | 0.308 | 0.00 | 9.8% |
| Niese | 0.294 | 3.97 | 0.339 | 3.42 | 0.256 | 0.695 | 0.302 | 3.76 | 0.263 | 93.27 | 16.8% |
| Hellickson | 0.328 | 4.79 | 0.365 | 4.97 | 0.235 | 0.653 | 0.330 | 4.34 | 0.286 | 0.00 | 17.9% |
| Martinez | 0.365 | 4.98 | 0.276 | 3.04 | 0.275 | 0.876 | 0.329 | 3.67 | 0.26 | 31.77 | 22.7% |
| Anderson | 0.337 | 5.27 | 0.293 | 2.34 | 0.250 | 0.673 | 0.327 | 3.22 | 0.279 | 80.87 | 16.2% |
| Odorizzi | 0.286 | 3.65 | 0.301 | 3.57 | 0.234 | 0.660 | 0.287 | 3.45 | 0.232 | 98.03 | 23.4% |
| Happ | 0.348 | 3.92 | 0.323 | 4.13 | 0.246 | 0.736 | 0.293 | 4.06 | 0.254 | 91.27 | 19.6% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Tsuyoshi Wada CHC (at WAS) – Wada has been killing it in the K department since being recalled from Triple-A Iowa, but today he faces a Washington club that just refueled with Anthony Rendon atop the lineup and Jayson Werth headed for a second stint on the disabled list (addition by subtraction), opening the door for the power-speed combo of Michael A. Taylor. Wada’s leftiness minimizes the Bryce Harper impact, but Harper is so hot right now that platoons may not matter.
Nathan Eovaldi NYY (vs. LAA) – The fantasy community keeps waiting on Captain Eo to break out, under the assumption that such elite velocity should register more strikeouts and be tougher to hit, but we are still waiting. He added an off-speed pitch this year to supposedly bolster his greatest weakness, but the results have been decidedly subpar, and his friendly matchup against the Halos is a bit scarier in light of the sudden resurgence of power bats Albert Pujols and Matt Joyce.
Tim Lincecum SF (at PHI) – Lincecum is the ultimate boom-or-bust candidate, and though his name value might lead some to believe in a false resurgence, the volatility is pretty much par for the course with Big Time Timmy Jim. If he can repeat the incredible momentum in his delivery and hit his spots, burying the split-change with regularity, the nLincecum could have a big day against the weak lineup of the Phils. However, it is just as likely that Lincecum struggles to find his release point and ends up with a short outing and crooked numbers on the scoreboard.
Brett Anderson LAD (vs. STL) – The pitch command that anchored Anderson’s value early in his career has been present throughout this season, though his upside is limited both by his modest K rate and the depth of the Cardinal attack. Strikeouts have never been a big part of Anderson’s game, but he could be a surprisingly stable source of run prevention on a day that is saturated with blow-up potential, and his injury tendencies are less of a concern in the DFS landscape.
Jose Quintana CHW (vs. DET) – Quintana has been trying to fix his pitching line ever since the Tigers lit him up for 9 earned runs back on April 19th, and a recent run-in with the resurgent Twins further dented his ERA (which now stands at 4.33 on the year). The Tigers are on a seven-game losing streak and have struggled to score runs lightly, but you can keep Miggy and company down for long and southpaw could open the scoring window that the team needs to shake off the rust.
Tanner Roark WAS (vs. CHC) – The injury to Stephen Strasburg makes Roark valuable again, reminding us all for the thousandth time that a team can never have too much pitching. He doesn’t strike out enough hitters, so even a matchup with the hacktastic Cubs brings limited upside.
Aaron Sanchez TOR (vs. HOU) – Sanchez has shone (relatively) over his last three starts, giving up three or fewer earnies while pitching 6.0 or more frames. He has calmed down the egregious walk rate in those games but has still given away 8 free passes in 20 innings, and the Astros could take advantage on the basepaths if Sanchez loses control in tonight’s contest.
Edinson Volquez KC (vs. TEX)
Jered Weaver LAA (at NYY)
J.A. Happ SEA (vs. TB)
Williams Perez ATL (vs. PIT)
Charlie Morton PIT (at ATL)
Kyle Gibson MIN (vs. MIL)
Chi Chi Gonzalez TEX (at KC)
Chris Tillman BAL (at CLE)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Jon Niese NYM (at ARI)
Jeremy Hellickson ARI (vs. NYM)
Kyle Lohse MIL (at MIN)
Jerome Williams PHI (vs. SF)
Shaun Marcum CLE (vs. BAL)
Jon Moscot CIN (vs. SD)
Kyle Ryan DET (at CHW)
Eddie Butler COL (vs. MIA)
Wade Miley BOS (vs. OAK)
Tom Koehler MIA (at COL)
Roberto Hernandez HOU (at TOR)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
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