Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, May 15th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Locke | PIT | CHC | 36.1 | 4.71 | 4.03 | 1.35 | 66.7% | 17.1% | 7.2% | 0.74 | 1.87 |
| Hendricks | CHC | PIT | 31 | 4.65 | 4.01 | 1.29 | 17.4% | 6.1% | 0.87 | 1.45 | |
| Anderson | ARI | PHI | 36.1 | 2.97 | 3.84 | 1.10 | 40.0% | 20.3% | 6.3% | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| Billingsley | PHI | ARI | 10 | 9.00 | 4.78 | 1.80 | 10.6% | 4.3% | 2.70 | 1.23 | |
| Weaver | LAA | BAL | 43.1 | 4.98 | 4.66 | 1.29 | 52.4% | 11.5% | 2.7% | 1.66 | 0.95 |
| Chen | BAL | LAA | 35.2 | 2.52 | 4.40 | 1.09 | 31.6% | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.26 | 0.79 |
| Bumgarner | SFG | CIN | 43.2 | 3.30 | 3.31 | 1.10 | 47.6% | 23.2% | 4.4% | 0.82 | 1.08 |
| Marquis | CIN | SFG | 35 | 5.66 | 4.01 | 1.51 | 18.3% | 6.5% | 1.80 | 1.37 | |
| Lohse | MIL | NYM | 39.2 | 7.03 | 4.18 | 1.36 | 50.0% | 17.4% | 5.2% | 2.27 | 0.83 |
| Colon | NYM | MIL | 46.1 | 3.30 | 3.18 | 0.99 | 42.1% | 21.7% | 0.5% | 1.17 | 0.93 |
| Teheran | ATL | MIA | 38 | 4.74 | 4.34 | 1.58 | 70.0% | 20.0% | 10.0% | 1.89 | 1.05 |
| Phelps | MIA | ATL | 31 | 2.90 | 4.81 | 1.23 | 42.9% | 14.7% | 8.5% | 0.00 | 1.06 |
| Chen | CLE | TEX | |||||||||
| Rodriguez | TEX | CLE | 23.1 | 2.70 | 4.05 | 1.07 | 22.9% | 10.4% | 0.77 | 1.00 | |
| Pineda | NYY | KCR | 46.1 | 2.72 | 2.16 | 1.01 | 75.0% | 29.5% | 1.6% | 0.58 | 1.78 |
| Young | KCR | NYY | 23 | 0.78 | 3.74 | 0.52 | 47.4% | 23.2% | 6.1% | 0.39 | 0.45 |
| Dickey | TOR | HOU | 45 | 5.00 | 5.50 | 1.29 | 47.6% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 1.40 | 1.24 |
| Keuchel | HOU | TOR | 51.2 | 1.39 | 3.31 | 0.85 | 50.0% | 19.1% | 7.7% | 0.17 | 3.60 |
| Odorizzi | TBR | MIN | 47.1 | 2.09 | 3.56 | 0.91 | 36.8% | 21.2% | 4.4% | 0.19 | 1.02 |
| Hughes | MIN | TBR | 44 | 5.11 | 3.94 | 1.36 | 45.0% | 16.9% | 2.1% | 1.84 | 0.85 |
| Greene | DET | STL | 42 | 4.71 | 4.32 | 1.19 | 100.0% | 14.4% | 6.6% | 0.43 | 1.73 |
| Martinez | STL | DET | 35 | 4.89 | 4.01 | 1.46 | 23.3% | 12.0% | 1.54 | 1.96 | |
| Rodon | CWS | OAK | 12.1 | 2.92 | 4.58 | 1.70 | 21.4% | 14.3% | 0.00 | 1.08 | |
| Hahn | OAK | CWS | 32.1 | 4.73 | 3.95 | 1.30 | 57.1% | 14.3% | 5.0% | 0.28 | 2.29 |
| Zimmermann | WAS | SDP | 40.2 | 4.20 | 4.51 | 1.35 | 52.6% | 13.9% | 5.2% | 0.44 | 1.13 |
| Despaigne | SDP | WAS | 26.1 | 5.13 | 4.75 | 1.10 | 100.0% | 10.1% | 6.4% | 1.37 | 1.63 |
| Buchholz | BOS | SEA | 37.2 | 5.73 | 3.26 | 1.59 | 33.3% | 24.9% | 7.5% | 0.72 | 1.81 |
| Happ | SEA | BOS | 38.1 | 3.29 | 3.58 | 1.17 | 30.8% | 20.3% | 5.1% | 0.94 | 1.50 |
| Butler | COL | LAD | 31.1 | 3.73 | 5.37 | 1.66 | 13.5% | 13.5% | 0.57 | 1.86 | |
| Kershaw | LAD | COL | 44.1 | 4.26 | 2.45 | 1.26 | 66.7% | 30.3% | 6.0% | 1.02 | 2.44 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Clayton Kershaw LAD (vs. COL) – The ERA is atrocious when compared to the sub-2.00 marks of the last two seasons, yet all of the peripherals are in line with his past levels of dominance, including a K rate of 30.6 percent that’s consistent with last season’s spike of his punchout bowl. Kersh just keeps running into the one bad inning each start, but he could put an end to that ghastly habit tonight as he runs into a Colorado club that has lost 11 games in a row and is ripe for the plucking.
Madison Bumgarner SF (at CIN) – Bummer was off his game a bit in the first few starts of the year, but over the past three weeks he has rattled off four games of a 2.03 ERA and 31 strikeouts in 26.7 innings, and the K count continues to climb. His 3.30 ERA is just a shade over his marks from the past two campaigns and his FIP is a dead ringer for 2013-14, while his 4.4 percent walk rate would qualify as the lowest full-season frequency of his career.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Michael Pineda NYY (at KC) – The Royals have been exceptionally tough this season, and Pineda could play right into their gameplan with his walk avoidance – the right-hander has given away just three free passes in 46.3 innings this season. The 6-foot-7 Pineda has been a strikeout machine in 2015, with 54 total K’s for a frequency that rounds up to 30 percent, and he should be able to put up a solid number of punchouts even against a contact-oriented Kansas City ballclub that has the fewest batter strikeouts in baseball.
Jordan Zimmermann WAS (at SD) – Zimm just hasn’t been himself this season, from reduced velocity to punctured command and even bad luck on balls in play. His control might appear fine at first glance, given the mere 2.0 walks per nine innings and just two homers allowed, but the K rate has plummeted from last year’s peak of 22.8 percent, beyond the previously-established range of 18.5-19.0 percent, and into the abyss of sub-14.0 percent punchouts. Zimmermann’s a competitor who could right the ship quickly, but I wouldn’t expect him to do so against a powerful Padre lineup.
Jake Odorizzi TB (at MIN) – The right-hander has been consistent as well as dominant at times this season. He has given up one or zero earned runs in 5 of his 7 starts, has only fallen short of a quality start once (he gave up four runs over six innings against the Yankees), and has an excellent K-to-walk ratio of 39-to-8 across 47.3 innings this season. He gave up a his first homer of the year in his last start and more are likely to follow; the flyball pitcher has invoked a higher proportion of grounders this season but is due to get punished at some point in the near future, though it’s unlikely to be today against a Twins lineup whose 25 homers represent the second-lowest total in the American League.
Julio Teheran ATL (at MIA) – Teheran’s command has been erratic this season, and everything that he throws near the plate gets hammered. His 10.0-percent walk rate is nearly double the 5.8-percent frequency of the past two seasons, and his inability to locate has caused almost every pitch in his arsenal to get hit hard this season. His best pitch thus far has been the slider, but even that offering has given up a near-.200 ISO and a pair of bombs. Teheran has silenced Giancarlo Stanton in their previous head-to-head matchups, but if Teheran shows up with the same command issues that have plagued him for most of the year then Stanton could take serious advantage.
Carlos Rodon CHW (at OAK) – The rookie was outstanding in his first major-league start, and though he walked the first two batters of the game as he battled some butterflies, the raw ingredients for dominance were present and accounted for in his most recent outing. Rodon touched 97 mph, a number that ratchets up a half-tick in value due to his being left-handed, and a wipeout slider that could immediately be considered one of the league’s best. The A’s are a hit-or-miss ballclub and rookies are more prone to volatility, so this is a pick that is jam-packed with risk and reward, but his affordable price tag and extended pitch count (he made 108 throws against Cincy) easily justify the risk of implosion.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Locke | 0.385 | 6.75 | 0.308 | 4.25 | 0.287 | 0.766 | 0.315 | 3.78 | 0.271 | 94.00 | 17.1% |
| Hendricks | 0.355 | 4.50 | 0.298 | 4.76 | 0.234 | 0.642 | 0.305 | 3.98 | 0.264 | 84.83 | 17.4% |
| Anderson | 0.321 | 4.67 | 0.231 | 1.42 | 0.207 | 0.567 | 0.284 | 3.09 | 0.233 | 95.33 | 20.3% |
| Billingsley | 0.629 | 15.75 | 0.220 | 4.50 | 0.256 | 0.693 | 0.351 | 6.64 | 0.356 | 79.50 | 10.6% |
| Weaver | 0.397 | 5.70 | 0.279 | 4.12 | 0.281 | 0.835 | 0.291 | 4.99 | 0.288 | 94.14 | 11.5% |
| Chen | 0.263 | 1.04 | 0.306 | 3.00 | 0.252 | 0.754 | 0.222 | 4.71 | 0.206 | 97.50 | 18.5% |
| Bumgarner | 0.280 | 0.00 | 0.282 | 3.54 | 0.224 | 0.668 | 0.290 | 3.17 | 0.235 | 98.71 | 23.2% |
| Marquis | 0.275 | 2.66 | 0.509 | 9.82 | 0.245 | 0.673 | 0.336 | 5.09 | 0.303 | 93.83 | 18.3% |
| Lohse | 0.330 | 3.72 | 0.414 | 10.18 | 0.235 | 0.653 | 0.289 | 5.74 | 0.28 | 97.14 | 17.4% |
| Colon | 0.263 | 2.08 | 0.311 | 4.38 | 0.232 | 0.650 | 0.285 | 3.16 | 0.246 | 89.29 | 21.7% |
| Teheran | 0.481 | 5.14 | 0.327 | 4.50 | 0.261 | 0.676 | 0.327 | 5.75 | 0.289 | 94.86 | 20.0% |
| Phelps | 0.284 | 1.93 | 0.232 | 3.71 | 0.255 | 0.707 | 0.273 | 2.98 | 0.229 | 70.00 | 14.7% |
| Chen | 0.435 | 5.40 | 0.557 | 19.29 | 0.240 | 0.700 | |||||
| Rodriguez | 0.327 | 6.75 | 0.241 | 1.86 | 0.226 | 0.638 | 0.217 | 3.91 | 0.179 | 96.25 | 22.9% |
| Pineda | 0.226 | 1.83 | 0.322 | 3.38 | 0.311 | 0.817 | 0.336 | 1.91 | 0.246 | 98.71 | 29.5% |
| Young | 0.126 | 0.00 | 0.144 | 1.26 | 0.228 | 0.694 | 0.105 | 2.71 | 0.091 | 43.00 | 23.2% |
| Dickey | 0.352 | 4.98 | 0.306 | 5.01 | 0.244 | 0.747 | 0.225 | 5.74 | 0.231 | 100.86 | 10.5% |
| Keuchel | 0.190 | 1.50 | 0.212 | 1.36 | 0.299 | 0.831 | 0.199 | 2.83 | 0.162 | 105.14 | 19.1% |
| Odorizzi | 0.258 | 2.39 | 0.226 | 1.71 | 0.231 | 0.623 | 0.252 | 2.34 | 0.2 | 98.71 | 21.2% |
| Hughes | 0.343 | 5.54 | 0.402 | 4.50 | 0.235 | 0.684 | 0.326 | 4.62 | 0.303 | 91.29 | 16.9% |
| Greene | 0.387 | 7.08 | 0.192 | 2.49 | 0.279 | 0.762 | 0.287 | 3.48 | 0.252 | 82.57 | 14.4% |
| Martinez | 0.367 | 4.74 | 0.309 | 5.06 | 0.291 | 0.803 | 0.297 | 4.91 | 0.25 | 83.29 | 23.3% |
| Rodon | 0.343 | 9.00 | 0.316 | 0.206 | 0.543 | 0.361 | 3.14 | 0.271 | 59.00 | 21.4% | |
| Hahn | 0.343 | 5.94 | 0.251 | 3.45 | 0.256 | 0.679 | 0.312 | 3.24 | 0.269 | 89.67 | 14.3% |
| Zimmermann | 0.379 | 5.09 | 0.239 | 3.52 | 0.244 | 0.694 | 0.324 | 3.41 | 0.284 | 89.00 | 13.9% |
| Despaigne | 0.216 | 1.50 | 0.377 | 8.16 | 0.239 | 0.669 | 0.212 | 5.31 | 0.22 | 58.00 | 10.1% |
| Buchholz | 0.290 | 3.57 | 0.412 | 9.00 | 0.234 | 0.660 | 0.393 | 3.09 | 0.297 | 92.86 | 24.9% |
| Happ | 0.276 | 0.90 | 0.298 | 4.13 | 0.200 | 0.701 | 0.289 | 3.46 | 0.247 | 94.00 | 20.3% |
| Butler | 0.409 | 4.91 | 0.309 | 2.70 | 0.275 | 0.876 | 0.316 | 4.87 | 0.277 | 88.33 | 13.5% |
| Kershaw | 0.327 | 5.19 | 0.318 | 4.04 | 0.259 | 0.726 | 0.357 | 2.90 | 0.26 | 98.29 | 30.3% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Bartolo Colon NYM (vs. MIL) – Colon is a modern marvel… or he’s a physical freak. I can’t decide. But 42-year-old pitchers who throw fastballs on 85-percent of their offerings are simply not supposed to be this successful. His physique defies explanation as much as his 40-to-1 ratio of strikeouts to walk, but he is truly a joy to watch.
Dallas Keuchel HOU (vs. TOR) – Keuchel has been light’s out all year, but we have to expect the other shoe to drop at some point, as the 7.7 percent walk rate and 19-percent K rate don’t support the majors lowest ERA at 1.39. He can thank the majors’ lowest rate of hits allowed, and though he can attribute some of that success to his own glovework, he has also benefited from a .200 BABIP that is simply unsustainable. I expect the regression monster to rear its ugly head today against a Toronto club that has scored the most runs in the bigs.
Chris Young KC (vs. NYY) – Young did the impossible in his last start, sedating the heavy-hitting Tigers for six innings while allowing just three hits and no walks to go with an unearned run. This will only be his third start of the year, and his previous outings of 81- and 83-pitches suggest that he will be capped at 90 throws or fewer. The ridiculous pitching line is due for regression, and it could be a short start if his limited pitch count gets stretched in the early frames.
Carlos Martinez STL (vs. DET) – Car-Mart was playing over his head for the entire month of April, toeing the rubber five times and never giving up more than 2 runs. Then the calendar flipped and so did Martinez’s run prevention, with back-to-back starts of 7 runs allowed, losing clutch intra-division matchups with Pittsburgh and Chicago. His control has waned, with four walks in each of his last two starts after never giving away more than three in any game of April. He now goes interleague against the fearsome Tigers, and Martinez is better off benched until his context and stats are in better harmony.
Jered Weaver LAA (at BAL) – Weaver’s flyball-philic ways could get punished by an Oriole lineup that thrives on deep flies and enjoys a home ballpark that is conducive with those goals. Weaver has been off his game thus far in 2015, as his ever-declining velocity has fallen officially into Jaime Moyer territory, averaging a Zito-esque 85 mph on his fastball and having drop more than two full ticks off of his average pitch-speed from last season.
Jesse Hahn OAK (vs. CHW) – The White Sox haven’t started hitting yet, with Jose Abreu and Adam LaRoche both struggling to rediscover last season’s magic, and Hahn will hope that he and the A’s can keep the Pale Hose roped in the harbor at Jack London Square until it is time for them to leave town.
Wei-Yin Chen BAL (vs. LAA) – The Angels are supposed to be one of the top offensive ballclubs in the AL, but their team slugging percentage of .348 is the lowest in the league and their 27 homers rank third-to-last. The result is a softer landing for Chen today in Baltimore.
Chase Anderson ARI (at PHI)
Phil Hughes MIN (vs. TB)
Odrisamer Despaigne SD (vs. WAS)
Clay Buchholz BOS (at SEA)
R.A. Dickey TOR (at HOU)
Eddie Butler COL (at LAD)
J.A. Happ SEA (vs. BOS)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Kyle Lohse MIL (at NYM)
David Phelps MIA (vs. ATL)
Shane Greene DET (at STL)
Wandy Rodriguez TEX (vs. CLE)
Jason Marquis CIN (vs. SF)
Chad Billingsley PHI (vs. ARI)
Bruce Chen CLE (at TEX)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window