Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, May 29th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volquez | KCR | CHC | 242 | 2.98 | 4.21 | 1.19 | 50.0% | 17.6% | 8.7% | 0.71 | 1.49 |
| Arrieta | CHC | KCR | 208.2 | 2.59 | 2.83 | 1.00 | 50.0% | 27.2% | 6.5% | 0.30 | 1.78 |
| Karns | TBR | BAL | 57.1 | 3.92 | 3.88 | 1.12 | 24.0% | 10.5% | 1.41 | 1.26 | |
| Gonzalez | BAL | TBR | 202 | 3.16 | 4.38 | 1.26 | 40.0% | 17.1% | 8.0% | 1.29 | 0.94 |
| Bettis | COL | PHI | 29.2 | 8.80 | 4.79 | 2.12 | 10.5% | 9.2% | 1.21 | 1.65 | |
| Hamels | PHI | COL | 255.2 | 2.68 | 3.37 | 1.16 | 58.8% | 24.3% | 7.8% | 0.77 | 1.45 |
| Strasburg | WAS | CIN | 255.2 | 3.59 | 2.81 | 1.20 | 52.4% | 26.8% | 5.2% | 0.95 | 1.42 |
| Desclafani | CIN | WAS | 78 | 4.85 | 4.27 | 1.33 | 20.0% | 17.7% | 7.7% | 0.92 | 1.00 |
| Haren | MIA | NYM | 227.1 | 3.96 | 3.84 | 1.16 | 30.0% | 18.4% | 4.7% | 1.39 | 0.99 |
| Harvey | NYM | MIA | 46.2 | 2.31 | 2.98 | 0.92 | 25.8% | 3.9% | 0.77 | 1.11 | |
| Wright | BOS | TEX | 36.2 | 3.19 | 3.23 | 1.34 | 20.0% | 7.1% | 1.23 | 2.13 | |
| Gallardo | TEX | BOS | 238 | 3.59 | 3.87 | 1.30 | 50.0% | 17.6% | 6.8% | 0.98 | 1.73 |
| De La Rosa | ARI | MIL | 145.2 | 4.45 | 4.01 | 1.40 | 57.1% | 18.6% | 7.5% | 1.17 | 1.37 |
| Nelson | MIL | ARI | 112 | 4.66 | 3.75 | 1.34 | 19.8% | 6.9% | 0.96 | 1.49 | |
| Buehrle | TOR | MIN | 249 | 3.76 | 4.40 | 1.40 | 60.0% | 13.3% | 5.4% | 0.83 | 1.33 |
| May | MIN | TOR | 82.1 | 6.67 | 4.21 | 1.64 | 18.9% | 8.0% | 1.09 | 0.86 | |
| Rodon | CWS | HOU | 16.1 | 4.96 | 5.18 | 1.96 | 21.3% | 17.5% | 0.55 | 1.06 | |
| McCullers | HOU | CWS | |||||||||
| Bolsinger | LAD | STL | 69.2 | 4.39 | 3.55 | 1.46 | 33.3% | 20.3% | 7.5% | 1.03 | 2.04 |
| Lackey | STL | LAD | 242.2 | 3.71 | 3.78 | 1.27 | 57.9% | 18.9% | 6.0% | 0.96 | 1.33 |
| Sanchez | DET | LAA | 177 | 3.81 | 3.68 | 1.12 | 41.2% | 20.4% | 5.9% | 0.51 | 1.16 |
| Santiago | LAA | DET | 168.1 | 3.42 | 4.34 | 1.34 | 16.7% | 20.4% | 9.9% | 1.02 | 0.63 |
| Capuano | NYY | OAK | 100.1 | 4.57 | 3.86 | 1.41 | 19.8% | 8.1% | 0.99 | 1.14 | |
| Gray | OAK | NYY | 275 | 2.78 | 3.53 | 1.14 | 60.0% | 21.2% | 8.0% | 0.52 | 1.99 |
| Bauer | CLE | SEA | 194.2 | 4.07 | 3.94 | 1.36 | 38.5% | 22.3% | 9.4% | 0.88 | 0.86 |
| Walker | SEA | CLE | 71.2 | 4.77 | 4.09 | 1.49 | 21.0% | 10.3% | 1.00 | 1.32 | |
| Liriano | PIT | SDP | 208 | 3.29 | 3.58 | 1.24 | 12.5% | 25.8% | 11.5% | 0.74 | 1.94 |
| Shields | SDP | PIT | 275.1 | 3.33 | 3.44 | 1.20 | 42.9% | 21.3% | 5.2% | 1.14 | 1.29 |
| Foltynewicz | ATL | SFG | 35.2 | 4.79 | 4.60 | 1.65 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 1.26 | 0.55 | |
| Hudson | SFG | ATL | 234.2 | 3.76 | 3.76 | 1.25 | 68.4% | 14.6% | 4.6% | 0.88 | 2.14 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Matt Harvey NYM (vs. MIA) – Harvey is the clear-cut choice for top arm of the day, despite the fact that he is coming off of a start that saw him cough up seven runs to the Pirates in just four innings of work, including a pair of big flies to the powerful duo of Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez. He had been on cruise control in his starts leading up to the game, including 18 strikeouts, three walks, and zero runs allowed across The outing was actually the worst of Harvey’s career from a run-prevention standpoint (his previous career-high was five runs allowed in a single game), but I’ll wager that he rebounds today against the struggling offense of the Marlins, who have lost 14 of their last 17 ballgames.
Cole Hamels PHI (vs. COL) – Hamels has been the model of consistency throughout his career, but he was surprisingly hittable for the first month of the 2015 baseball season, potentially harming his trade value as Ruben Amaro Jr dangles the southpaw to would-be contenders. Hamels has righted the ship in recent weeks, including four consecutive starts with 7.0 or more innings pitched and two or fewer walks to go with no more than a pair of runs allowed in each outing.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Sonny Gray OAK (vs. NYY) – The right-hander left his last start early when a batted ball bruised his ankle, and the A’s were wise to play it safe and remove Gray from the game rather than endure the type of injury cascade that inflicted former Athletic Brett Anderson when he was allowed to play through ankle woes two years ago. Oakland surely wants to avoid such a scenario with their prized starting pitcher, so they could play it safe if his delivery appears compromised in any way.
James Shields SD (vs. PIT) – Shields has been a much different pitcher since crossing lines into the National League, and though he is enjoying facing the pitcher spot with a huge spike in strikeouts (his 11.8 K’s per nine innings leads NL starters), his penchant for the home run is putting a wrench into his run prevention this season. In terms of triple-slash rates, the Pirates have the epitome of a league-average offense this season, but with lineup anchor Andrew McCutchen beginning to hit up and a bevy of high-upside hitters, the Pirates have the potential to post some crooked numbers on the scoreboard.
Stephen Strasburg WAS (at CIN) – Stras is a regular All-in candidate, demonstrating both the consistency and the vaulted ceiling of performance to inspire limitless optimism a copious Cy Young predictions. Yet he has struggled mightily this season, particularly with balls in play, as the previously-unhittable Stras has given up a ridiculous 62 base knocks in his 44.3 innings this season. His pitch command has been a wreck, and his options have been limited when playing the chess match against opposing bats due to his inability to control the count or the strike zone. There is perhaps no better upside play in the game right now, as his recent struggles have brought down his cost in most DFS circles, but the downside is too steep to ignore, making Stras a risky proposition in any format until he rediscovers his release point.
Trevor Bauer CLE (at SEA) – If there is a better upside play in baseball than Stras, then it likely lies in the Cleveland rotation, where Trevor Bauer already has multiple double-digit strikeout games on his 2015 resume. His fastball features ridiculous movement, with some mean arm-side run on the sinker when the pitch is clicking, and his deep arsenal includes a “reverse slider” that keeps the heads spinning of opposing batters. The punchouts have quieted a bit recently, but they have been replaced by a solid string of starts: in his last three turns, Bauer has pitched 7.3 or more innings and allowed just a single run in each game. The risk of implosion is high, but few pitchers offer such high-scale rewards.
Francisco Liriano PIT (at SD) – This would seem to be a mismatch at first glance, with the Padres having bulked up during the off-season with an emphasis on right-handed power that takes aim at southpaws. Such was the case for the first month of the season, but the Pads have gone quiet against arms from all sides in recent weeks. Liriano falls into the risk-reward category of volatility that is occupied by the likes of Bauer, and there is the risk that the Padres lefty-killing bats perform more closely to career norms than the recent window of offensive futility.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volquez | 0.298 | 3.31 | 0.282 | 2.70 | 0.242 | 0.694 | 0.257 | 3.97 | 0.222 | 93.25 | 17.6% |
| Arrieta | 0.249 | 2.03 | 0.247 | 3.11 | 0.311 | 0.817 | 0.280 | 2.25 | 0.205 | 98.58 | 27.2% |
| Karns | 0.273 | 2.90 | 0.301 | 4.78 | 0.281 | 0.835 | 0.210 | 4.72 | 0.187 | 98.20 | 24.0% |
| Gonzalez | 0.332 | 2.95 | 0.317 | 3.87 | 0.235 | 0.684 | 0.266 | 4.73 | 0.243 | 95.00 | 17.1% |
| Bettis | 0.379 | 7.15 | 0.415 | 6.75 | 0.207 | 0.567 | 0.381 | 5.33 | 0.355 | 0.00 | 10.5% |
| Hamels | 0.268 | 1.55 | 0.290 | 2.87 | 0.259 | 0.726 | 0.287 | 3.35 | 0.227 | 104.71 | 24.3% |
| Strasburg | 0.299 | 3.19 | 0.320 | 4.13 | 0.224 | 0.691 | 0.329 | 3.03 | 0.254 | 95.67 | 26.8% |
| Desclafani | 0.374 | 5.70 | 0.237 | 3.40 | 0.239 | 0.669 | 0.288 | 4.05 | 0.251 | 59.10 | 17.7% |
| Haren | 0.302 | 3.53 | 0.313 | 4.08 | 0.235 | 0.653 | 0.270 | 4.25 | 0.246 | 95.87 | 18.4% |
| Harvey | 0.273 | 3.38 | 0.273 | 2.45 | 0.261 | 0.676 | 0.264 | 2.89 | 0.209 | 93.71 | 25.8% |
| Wright | 0.313 | 3.97 | 0.288 | 2.21 | 0.193 | 0.559 | 0.306 | 4.12 | 0.264 | 68.56 | 20.0% |
| Gallardo | 0.297 | 3.18 | 0.322 | 4.05 | 0.257 | 0.714 | 0.291 | 3.98 | 0.256 | 99.83 | 17.6% |
| De La Rosa | 0.369 | 5.29 | 0.301 | 3.50 | 0.232 | 0.650 | 0.314 | 4.25 | 0.274 | 94.08 | 18.6% |
| Nelson | 0.347 | 4.89 | 0.305 | 3.93 | 0.256 | 0.693 | 0.317 | 3.99 | 0.267 | 82.95 | 19.8% |
| Buehrle | 0.340 | 4.10 | 0.336 | 3.63 | 0.262 | 0.672 | 0.319 | 3.93 | 0.29 | 94.80 | 13.3% |
| May | 0.373 | 4.72 | 0.344 | 8.42 | 0.235 | 0.718 | 0.363 | 4.16 | 0.306 | 0.00 | 18.9% |
| Rodon | 0.320 | 9.00 | 0.348 | 1.26 | 0.223 | 0.673 | 0.354 | 4.44 | 0.273 | 66.40 | 21.3% |
| McCullers | 0.267 | 6.75 | 0.271 | 0.256 | 0.679 | ||||||
| Bolsinger | 0.341 | 5.23 | 0.315 | 3.00 | 0.279 | 0.762 | 0.335 | 3.88 | 0.28 | 84.46 | 20.3% |
| Lackey | 0.320 | 3.43 | 0.303 | 3.93 | 0.275 | 0.876 | 0.300 | 3.72 | 0.258 | 98.55 | 18.9% |
| Sanchez | 0.269 | 3.04 | 0.323 | 6.10 | 0.227 | 0.624 | 0.280 | 3.00 | 0.23 | 96.83 | 20.4% |
| Santiago | 0.261 | 2.32 | 0.321 | 3.81 | 0.273 | 0.777 | 0.282 | 4.21 | 0.239 | 80.95 | 20.4% |
| Capuano | 0.400 | 6.99 | 0.306 | 3.66 | 0.206 | 0.543 | 0.308 | 4.00 | 0.26 | 41.54 | 19.8% |
| Gray | 0.275 | 2.52 | 0.270 | 3.08 | 0.228 | 0.694 | 0.272 | 3.24 | 0.22 | 100.32 | 21.2% |
| Bauer | 0.309 | 4.02 | 0.319 | 3.71 | 0.234 | 0.660 | 0.309 | 3.89 | 0.249 | 99.39 | 22.3% |
| Walker | 0.365 | 4.70 | 0.322 | 5.66 | 0.247 | 0.701 | 0.320 | 4.31 | 0.263 | 82.73 | 21.0% |
| Liriano | 0.317 | 4.57 | 0.281 | 3.23 | 0.309 | 0.801 | 0.267 | 3.55 | 0.205 | 94.36 | 25.8% |
| Shields | 0.321 | 3.17 | 0.312 | 3.49 | 0.234 | 0.642 | 0.297 | 3.81 | 0.253 | 105.64 | 21.3% |
| Foltynewicz | 0.245 | 0.673 | 0.339 | 4.71 | 0.292 | 32.89 | 18.6% | ||||
| Hudson | 0.333 | 3.84 | 0.305 | 3.96 | 0.255 | 0.707 | 0.299 | 3.88 | 0.27 | 90.08 | 14.6% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Jimmy Nelson MIL (vs. ARI) – The Arizona offense has been especially potent this season, averaging the second-highest scores in the National League at 4.63 runs per game. Outside of the obviously formidable Paul Goldschmidt, the D’backs have enjoyed excellent performances this season from Mark Trumbo, A.J. Pollock and newcomer Yasmany Tomas. Nelson has a pair of high-K games this season, but there have also been too many outings of five strikeouts or less that have brought his overall frequency down near career norms of 7.5 K’s per nine, and his nine walks over the last two turns stand out more than the mere three runs allowed.
John Lackey STL (vs. LAD) – Father Time might be catching up to the 36-year old, whose 16-percent K-rate is the lowest of his career and whose 6.8-percent walk rate is the highest since missing the 2012 season due to injury. His only saving grace has been a home run rate that suddenly cut in half from the consistent dinger-per-nine that he had established throughout his career, and any northward regression in his homer rate will bring the other run-prevention stats along with it.
Lance McCullers HOU (vs. CHW) – McCullers has taken some flack in the past for his “high effort” delivery, but he actually uses his lower half very well to spread the kinetic toll of pitching across his whole body rather than rely on brute arm strength. He has dazzled audiences in his first two starts, shutting down the offenses of Oakland and Detroit, and though his pitch efficiency has left something to be desired it’s heard to argue with the results.
Carlos Rodon CHW (at HOU) – This is the game to watch if you have any interest in the next wave of pitching prospects, pitting McCullers against Carlos Rodon. The Chicago southpaw has given away far too many free passes this season, walking 19 batters in his first 22.3 innings, but he carries the strikeout upside for a big day against a Houston offense that’s not afraid to go down hacking.
Anibal Sanchez DET (at LAA) – Aside from the AL-leading 2.57 mark of 2013, Sanchez has never had an outstanding ERA, clocking in between 3.43 and 3.89 in every other season since 2009. The evidence suggests that his 2013 performance was a bit over his head, but he should certainly be better than the 6.10 ERA that he’s currently sporting, leading the AL in earned runs allowed. The Angels have an offense that is full of holes, particularly in the bottom half of the lineup, but that factor is countered by the possibility that Sanchez is either hurt or dealing with a compromised arsenal, and in either case he should be avoided.
Anthony DeSclafani CIN (vs. WAS)
Mike Bolsinger LAD (at STL)
Dan Haren MIA (at NYM)
Miguel Gonzalez BAL (vs. TB)
Tim Hudson SF (vs. ATL)
Yovani Gallardo TEX (vs. BOS)
Taijuan Walker SEA (vs. CLE)
Nate Karns TB (at BAL)
Rubby De La Rosa ARI (at MIL)
Mike Foltynewicz ATL (at SF)
Chris Capuano NYY (at OAK)
Mark Buehrle TOR (at MIN)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Hector Santiago LAA (vs. DET)
Chad Bettis COL (at PHI)
Trevor May MIN (vs. TOR)
Steven Wright BOS (at TEX)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
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