Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, May 8th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wacha | STL | PIT | 107 | 3.20 | 3.74 | 1.20 | 53.3% | 21.0% | 7.4% | 0.50 | 1.15 |
| Liriano | PIT | STL | 162.1 | 3.38 | 3.61 | 1.30 | 12.5% | 25.3% | 11.7% | 0.72 | 2.03 |
| Stults | ATL | WAS | 176 | 4.30 | 4.33 | 1.38 | 26.3% | 14.6% | 5.9% | 1.33 | 1.22 |
| Gonzalez | WAS | ATL | 158.2 | 3.57 | 3.43 | 1.20 | 46.7% | 24.8% | 8.6% | 0.57 | 1.22 |
| Gonzalez | BAL | NYY | 159 | 3.23 | 4.40 | 1.30 | 40.0% | 16.5% | 7.6% | 1.42 | 0.89 |
| Warren | NYY | BAL | 78.2 | 2.97 | 3.01 | 1.11 | 23.5% | 7.4% | 0.46 | 1.46 | |
| Harvey | NYM | PHI | |||||||||
| Hamels | PHI | NYM | 204.2 | 2.46 | 3.29 | 1.15 | 58.8% | 23.9% | 7.1% | 0.62 | 1.49 |
| Miley | BOS | TOR | 201.1 | 4.34 | 3.67 | 1.40 | 33.3% | 21.1% | 8.7% | 1.03 | 1.82 |
| Sanchez | TOR | BOS | 33 | 1.09 | 2.53 | 0.70 | 22.3% | 7.4% | 0.27 | 3.38 | |
| Ventura | KCR | DET | 183 | 3.20 | 3.87 | 1.30 | 44.4% | 20.3% | 8.8% | 0.69 | 1.53 |
| Price | DET | KCR | 248.1 | 3.26 | 2.72 | 1.08 | 52.4% | 26.9% | 3.8% | 0.91 | 1.08 |
| Gallardo | TEX | TBR | 192.1 | 3.51 | 3.78 | 1.29 | 50.0% | 17.9% | 6.6% | 0.98 | 1.75 |
| Karns | TBR | TEX | 12 | 4.50 | 3.24 | 0.92 | 26.5% | 8.2% | 2.25 | 1.00 | |
| Pelfrey | MIN | CLE | 23.2 | 7.99 | 6.45 | 1.99 | 8.4% | 15.1% | 1.90 | 1.15 | |
| Bauer | CLE | MIN | 153 | 4.18 | 3.95 | 1.38 | 38.5% | 21.6% | 9.1% | 0.94 | 0.85 |
| Marquis | CIN | CWS | |||||||||
| Noesi | CWS | CIN | 172.1 | 4.75 | 4.34 | 1.37 | 26.7% | 16.8% | 7.6% | 1.46 | 0.94 |
| Hammel | CHC | MIL | 176.1 | 3.47 | 3.50 | 1.12 | 47.4% | 22.1% | 6.2% | 1.17 | 1.03 |
| Nelson | MIL | CHC | 69.1 | 4.93 | 3.76 | 1.46 | 18.3% | 6.1% | 0.78 | 1.52 | |
| Anderson | LAD | COL | 43.1 | 2.91 | 3.61 | 1.32 | 20.0% | 16.1% | 7.2% | 0.21 | 2.77 |
| Butler | COL | LAD | 16 | 6.75 | 5.65 | 1.88 | 4.0% | 9.2% | 1.13 | 2.20 | |
| Shields | SDP | ARI | 227 | 3.21 | 3.59 | 1.18 | 42.9% | 19.2% | 4.7% | 0.91 | 1.33 |
| Hellickson | ARI | SDP | 63.2 | 4.52 | 4.04 | 1.45 | 19.2% | 7.5% | 1.13 | 0.89 | |
| Hernandez | HOU | LAA | 164.2 | 4.10 | 4.67 | 1.39 | 35.3% | 14.5% | 10.1% | 1.04 | 1.66 |
| Weaver | LAA | HOU | 213.1 | 3.59 | 4.18 | 1.21 | 52.4% | 19.0% | 7.3% | 1.14 | 0.69 |
| Gray | OAK | SEA | 219 | 3.08 | 3.56 | 1.19 | 60.0% | 20.4% | 8.2% | 0.62 | 2.19 |
| Walker | SEA | OAK | 38 | 2.61 | 3.97 | 1.29 | 21.3% | 11.3% | 0.47 | 1.78 | |
| Cosart | MIA | SFG | 180.1 | 3.69 | 4.36 | 1.36 | 31.6% | 15.0% | 9.5% | 0.45 | 2.05 |
| Lincecum | SFG | MIA | 155.2 | 4.74 | 3.95 | 1.39 | 40.0% | 19.9% | 9.4% | 1.10 | 1.60 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Matt Harvey NYM (at PHI) – Harvey’s fastball velocity, command, and mechanics are nearly at pre-injury levels, and though he failed to dominate the hapless Phils when he faced them back on April 14th, the eight strikeouts against zero walks is nothing to sneeze at. His strikeout total was unimpressive in his last start but was balanced by the seven blank frames, and Harvey is 5-for-5 in posting big totals on the DFS scoreboard.
David Price DET (vs. KC) – Price tossed a complete game his last time out, surviving a gauntlet of roughed up starters to emerge victorious in KC. He only struck out three, though such is to be expected against the Royals, and more importantly he allowed just one run. This time around Price gets the Royals at home, and though the K count will likely be on the low end once again, Price has had enough shake-ups lately to fall prey to a contact-laden club like the Royals.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Gio Gonzalez WAS (vs. ATL) – His 9-strikeout performance against the Mets brought Gio’s K rate back within range of career norms, and the seven shutout frames took the fear factor out of his ERA, but the fact remains that Gonzalez has been uncharacteristically inconsistent this season. He has blanked teams for six or more innings twice this season, yet he has given up three or more runs in each of the other three starts. He should be able to even the scale against Atlanta, neutralizing the only fear-inducing bat in that lineup by taking the platoon advantage from Freddie Freeman.
James Shields SD (at ARI) – Shields might have lost some street cred for his “Big Game” moniker last October, but he has stepped up for the Padres this season to easily justify the free agent expenditure. He has gone six or more innings in five of six starts, struck out seven or more batters in five of six, and even survived a trip through the Rocky Mountains without chewing off his own leg. The Diamondbacks have one bat to fear (maybe 1.5 if you count Trumbo), and James is poised for another Big strikeout Game.
Cole Hamels PHI (vs. NYM) – Hamels has not been himself this season, missing spots and walking batters, and three of his six turns have seen four or more earned runs tacked to his pitching line. Typically a command artist, Hamels has walked 19 batters in 37 innings this season, and the 5.46 FIP indicates that his peripherals are even worse than his 4.14 ERA suggests.
Sonny Gray OAK (at SEA) – Gray had a very unusual start the last time out, facing the Rangers in Arlington. He had only walked 5 batters in 4 ballgames up to that point, so of course he walked 7 Texas batters; his single-game high in strikeouts had been 7 K, that is until he fanned 10 Rangers. Gray faced Seattle once in April, giving up his only homer of the season but otherwise shutting down the Mariner lineup. He has only had one toss-away start this season, but the shape of his outing tonight is anyone’s a guess.
Michael Wacha STL (at PIT) – It’s only a sample of 4 games (3 starts), but Wacha has decimated the rival Pirates in his career with a 1.31 ERA in 20.7 innings of work. He’s given up one run or fewer in 4 of 5 his starts this season, he blanked these Pirates for 6.7 innings in his last turn, and the next time that Wacha walks three batters in a ballgame will be his first of 2015. Everything is lined up for a good day, but it’s just when everything starts to fit that the baseball gods will intervene. Expect the unexpected in this game.
Francisco Liriano PIT (vs. STL) – The matchup with Wacha will be a battle, and the tale of the tape for this season reveals a different process to achieve very similar results. Liriano lives and dies by the slider, as his shaky fastball command leads to high walk rates, particularly when he falls behind early in the count. He has avoided trouble for the most past this season despite the frequent free passes, but there is no way that the .167 BABIP is sustainable and Liriano is due for an explosion in the near future.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wacha | 0.266 | 2.96 | 0.306 | 3.42 | 0.234 | 0.642 | 0.288 | 3.17 | 0.232 | 89.16 | 21.0% |
| Liriano | 0.331 | 4.20 | 0.284 | 3.20 | 0.250 | 0.673 | 0.280 | 3.59 | 0.215 | 93.59 | 25.3% |
| Stults | 0.342 | 5.29 | 0.341 | 3.93 | 0.221 | 0.751 | 0.296 | 4.63 | 0.276 | 88.53 | 14.6% |
| Gonzalez | 0.284 | 3.79 | 0.293 | 3.51 | 0.238 | 0.682 | 0.294 | 3.03 | 0.226 | 97.15 | 24.8% |
| Gonzalez | 0.340 | 2.81 | 0.321 | 3.72 | 0.228 | 0.694 | 0.273 | 4.89 | 0.253 | 94.52 | 16.5% |
| Warren | 0.236 | 2.21 | 0.307 | 3.64 | 0.281 | 0.835 | 0.272 | 2.89 | 0.212 | 19.30 | 23.5% |
| Harvey | 0.207 | 0.567 | |||||||||
| Hamels | 0.291 | 2.18 | 0.285 | 2.53 | 0.260 | 0.743 | 0.295 | 3.07 | 0.231 | 104.53 | 23.9% |
| Miley | 0.326 | 5.32 | 0.331 | 4.06 | 0.299 | 0.831 | 0.317 | 3.98 | 0.263 | 97.48 | 21.1% |
| Sanchez | 0.223 | 1.54 | 0.149 | 0.84 | 0.257 | 0.714 | 0.157 | 2.80 | 0.126 | 19.38 | 22.3% |
| Ventura | 0.288 | 2.68 | 0.316 | 3.93 | 0.291 | 0.803 | 0.288 | 3.60 | 0.237 | 96.29 | 20.3% |
| Price | 0.292 | 3.19 | 0.283 | 3.28 | 0.297 | 0.805 | 0.306 | 2.78 | 0.238 | 109.71 | 26.9% |
| Gallardo | 0.287 | 2.77 | 0.328 | 4.08 | 0.235 | 0.684 | 0.294 | 3.94 | 0.257 | 100.50 | 17.9% |
| Karns | 0.193 | 0.559 | 0.148 | 5.72 | 0.163 | 102.50 | 26.5% | ||||
| Pelfrey | 0.294 | 4.41 | 0.247 | 0.701 | 0.286 | 7.57 | 0.293 | 0.00 | 8.4% | ||
| Bauer | 0.324 | 4.34 | 0.329 | 4.02 | 0.231 | 0.623 | 0.312 | 4.01 | 0.255 | 99.65 | 21.6% |
| Marquis | 0.256 | 0.679 | |||||||||
| Noesi | 0.320 | 4.50 | 0.367 | 5.12 | 0.224 | 0.691 | 0.290 | 4.83 | 0.267 | 83.42 | 16.8% |
| Hammel | 0.305 | 3.09 | 0.297 | 3.78 | 0.232 | 0.650 | 0.272 | 3.92 | 0.232 | 93.20 | 22.1% |
| Nelson | 0.353 | 4.84 | 0.349 | 5.03 | 0.242 | 0.694 | 0.344 | 3.78 | 0.289 | 79.21 | 18.3% |
| Anderson | 0.324 | 4.63 | 0.291 | 2.27 | 0.259 | 0.726 | 0.314 | 2.99 | 0.263 | 83.00 | 16.1% |
| Butler | 0.334 | 5.06 | 0.275 | 0.876 | 0.328 | 5.69 | 0.333 | 0.00 | 4.0% | ||
| Shields | 0.309 | 3.02 | 0.310 | 3.43 | 0.256 | 0.693 | 0.295 | 3.59 | 0.253 | 106.82 | 19.2% |
| Hellickson | 0.261 | 3.76 | 0.423 | 5.68 | 0.244 | 0.694 | 0.321 | 4.15 | 0.275 | 90.62 | 19.2% |
| Hernandez | 0.333 | 3.94 | 0.323 | 4.23 | 0.227 | 0.624 | 0.266 | 4.85 | 0.244 | 85.53 | 14.5% |
| Weaver | 0.321 | 3.79 | 0.277 | 3.27 | 0.244 | 0.747 | 0.267 | 4.19 | 0.236 | 98.59 | 19.0% |
| Gray | 0.289 | 2.81 | 0.277 | 3.40 | 0.234 | 0.660 | 0.277 | 3.46 | 0.229 | 99.85 | 20.4% |
| Walker | 0.333 | 2.86 | 0.229 | 2.25 | 0.279 | 0.767 | 0.282 | 3.68 | 0.223 | 78.13 | 21.3% |
| Cosart | 0.312 | 3.53 | 0.293 | 3.84 | 0.245 | 0.673 | 0.290 | 3.77 | 0.251 | 98.23 | 15.0% |
| Lincecum | 0.335 | 4.81 | 0.346 | 4.68 | 0.261 | 0.676 | 0.299 | 4.31 | 0.255 | 80.76 | 19.9% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Trevor Bauer CLE (vs. MIN) – Bauer was a strikeout machine in the early going, with 26 K’s (and only 8 hits) in his first 19 innings, but he has whiffed just three hitters across his last two games. Bauer’s inconsistency is becoming legendary in a hurry, and his enormous upside makes him a great play in large tournaments, but the precipitous downside suggests a minimal investment overall.
Yordano Ventura KC (at DET) – Ventura has not been generating the strikeouts that his triple-digit velocity suggests, with an alternating pattern this season of 2-strikeout duds and 7-K gems. Ventura is in line for a big start if the hop-scotch pattern continues, but he is facing a Tigers lineup that crushes anything that moves. It’s your call, but I’ll be avoiding Yordano in DFS today.
Jimmy Nelson MIL (vs. CHC) – The NL’s highest-K lineup faces a pitcher with big strikeout stuff, and it’s a recipe for a big day for the Brewer right-hander. He is playing against a half-rookie lineup that can go boom-or-bust at any moment, so like Bauer, there is considerable risk to go with the high ceiling.
Tim Lincecum SF (vs. MIA) – It could get ugly, but Timmy just keeps on truckin’. Proceed with caution, especially if Yelich is back in the lineup.
Jered Weaver LAA (vs. HOU) – One of the league’s most flyball-friendly pitchers meets the club with the highest ratio of grounders in 2015. Which side wins depends on whether Weaver can harness his pitch command this time around in order to take advantage of his home environs.
Jason Hammel CHC (at MIL) –
Miguel Gonzalez BAL (at NYY) –
Taijuan Walker SEA (vs. OAK) –
Yovani Gallardo TEX (at TB)
Jarred Cosart MIA (at SF)
Nate Karns TB (vs. TEX)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Jeremy Hellickson ARI (vs. SD)
Aaron Sanchez TOR (vs. BOS)
Roberto Hernandez HOU (at LAA)
Brett Anderson LAD (at COL)
Eric Stults ATL (at WAS)
Mike Pelfrey MIN (at CLE)
Adam Warren NYY (vs. BAL)
Wade Miley BOS (at TOR) – as if the setting were not rife enough for a blowout, with Miley’s recent implosions and Toronto’s massive lineup, but the Blue Jay bats are particularly skilled at mashing lefties and this could get ugly in short order.
Jason Marquis CIN (at CHW)
Eddie Butler COL (vs. LAD)
Hector Noesi CHW (vs. CIN)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
