Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Labor Day Late Games
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De La Rosa | BOS | TBR | 82.2 | 3.81 | 4.37 | 1.45 | 57.1% | 16.3% | 8.7% | 0.98 | 1.43 |
| Smyly | TBR | BOS | 141.1 | 3.31 | 3.77 | 1.18 | 50.0% | 20.6% | 6.6% | 1.02 | 0.87 |
| Hamels | PHI | ATL | 163.1 | 2.59 | 3.28 | 1.16 | 58.8% | 23.8% | 7.1% | 0.61 | 1.54 |
| Teheran | ATL | PHI | 189 | 2.90 | 3.67 | 1.07 | 70.0% | 21.2% | 5.7% | 0.95 | 0.78 |
| Wheeler | NYM | MIA | 159.2 | 3.44 | 3.62 | 1.31 | 55.0% | 22.9% | 10.1% | 0.68 | 1.97 |
| Alvarez | MIA | NYM | 157 | 2.75 | 3.60 | 1.23 | 50.0% | 15.0% | 4.5% | 0.69 | 2.33 |
| Hughes | MIN | BAL | 172.2 | 3.70 | 3.20 | 1.18 | 45.0% | 21.6% | 2.1% | 0.63 | 0.95 |
| Gausman | BAL | MIN | 82 | 3.84 | 4.32 | 1.38 | 37.5% | 17.1% | 8.4% | 0.55 | 1.22 |
| Cole | PIT | STL | 98.2 | 3.65 | 3.53 | 1.27 | 28.6% | 22.4% | 8.2% | 0.73 | 1.67 |
| Lynn | STL | PIT | 164.2 | 2.79 | 3.86 | 1.28 | 60.0% | 20.9% | 8.5% | 0.44 | 1.29 |
| Nelson | MIL | CHC | 52.2 | 4.10 | 3.71 | 1.35 | 19.2% | 6.4% | 0.68 | 1.51 | |
| Turner | CHC | MIL | 86.1 | 5.84 | 4.02 | 1.63 | 22.2% | 14.5% | 6.5% | 0.83 | 1.84 |
| Price | DET | CLE | 203.1 | 3.32 | 2.67 | 1.06 | 52.4% | 27.3% | 3.7% | 1.02 | 1.08 |
| Kluber | CLE | DET | 192.2 | 2.52 | 2.74 | 1.10 | 57.1% | 27.3% | 5.7% | 0.51 | 1.55 |
| Young | SEA | OAK | 150.1 | 3.17 | 5.27 | 1.16 | 47.4% | 15.3% | 8.4% | 1.14 | 0.40 |
| Hammel | OAK | SEA | 147.2 | 3.72 | 3.62 | 1.19 | 47.4% | 21.5% | 6.7% | 1.22 | 1.12 |
| Cahill | ARI | SDP | 86.2 | 4.98 | 3.85 | 1.56 | 20.0% | 20.3% | 10.4% | 0.62 | 2.10 |
| Ross | SDP | ARI | 181 | 2.64 | 3.23 | 1.17 | 66.7% | 23.8% | 8.6% | 0.60 | 2.45 |
| Hudson | SFG | COL | 167.2 | 2.90 | 3.59 | 1.15 | 68.4% | 15.5% | 4.3% | 0.70 | 2.10 |
| Morales | COL | SFG | 124.1 | 5.14 | 4.63 | 1.59 | 15.4% | 15.3% | 9.8% | 1.52 | 1.31 |
| Gonzalez | WAS | LAD | 126 | 3.86 | 3.56 | 1.30 | 46.7% | 24.8% | 9.6% | 0.64 | 1.28 |
| Hernandez | LAD | WAS | 144 | 3.81 | 4.67 | 1.33 | 35.3% | 14.5% | 10.1% | 0.69 | 1.69 |
| Lewis | TEX | KCR | 137.1 | 5.44 | 4.14 | 1.58 | 11.8% | 18.0% | 6.4% | 1.25 | 0.78 |
| Ventura | KCR | TEX | 145.2 | 3.40 | 3.86 | 1.30 | 44.4% | 20.0% | 8.5% | 0.80 | 1.53 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
PLATINUM BUYS:
These are aces who don’t really need much explanation at all. They’re expensive, but awesome. If an ace-level arm is struggling a bit or has a tough matchup, he might fall into the gold or silver tiers, but otherwise you’re going to find the Kershaws, Hernandez, and Sales of the world in here.
Corey Kluber CLE (v. DET)
David Price DET (at CLE)
Tyson Ross SD (v. ARI)
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Gio Gonzalez WAS (at LAD) – Gonzalez has been back on track with his results for a little while now after a run of uninspiring outings in late-July, early-August. Over his last three, he has a 3.00 ERA in 18 IP with 17 Ks and just six walks. The Dodgers have flailed against lefties throughout the year with a bottom-10 OPS for the bulk of the season, including a .694 mark that currently sits 21st.
Yordano Ventura KC (v. TEX) – Since a 6 ER, 0 K disaster in Boston on July 20th, the Ventura we saw earlier this season has returned. His strikeouts are back and he’s gone at least six innings in each of his last six. During that span he’s got a 2.84 ERA with 37 Ks in 38 IP. He faced these Rangers his last time out and posted a strong 6 IP/1 ER effort with seven base runners and six strikeouts.
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.
Chris Young SEA (at OAK) – Every time it looks like the beginning of the end, Young rebounds and gets back on track in relatively short order. I’ve been skeptical of him throughout the season, but I’ve started to turn lately because the component numbers have greatly improved. Through June he had a 4.6 K9 and 1.3 K:BB ratio in 91.3 IP, but in 10 starts since then he has a 7.2 K9 and 2.8 K:BB ratio. He has three quality starts against Oakland this year and two clean innings in relief (2.25 ERA in 20 IP) which includes starts when they were peaking offensively. They certainly aren’t near that peak right now, giving Young a great shot for another strong outing against them.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Trevor Cahill ARI (at SD) – I’m a little worried about the elevated walk rate during his solid August (3.9 BB9 in 30.3 IP), but a trip to SD is tough to pass on. The Padres were hitting for a while as natural regression seemed to be in order to curb their historically awful season, but they are back near the bottom of late with a .636 OPS v. RHP in the last two weeks (24th in MLB).
Jason Hammel OAK (v. SEA) – Did the time off (he had 10 days between starts) help Hammel or was it just facing Houston? He went 7 IP/1 ER his last time out, and while it was Houston, they had a pretty good August with 4.2 runs per game. Three of Hammel’s last four outings have been good, but the off one was pretty awful (3 IP/5 ER at ATL with 3 HRs) so it’s still a little sketchy to trust him entirely.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Tim Hudson SF (at COL) – He killed ‘em in SF his last time out, but Coors is a much different story for a contact-heavy pitcher.
- Franklin Morales COL (v. SF)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De La Rosa | 0.378 | 4.50 | 0.313 | 3.03 | 0.248 | 0.688 | 0.313 | 4.33 | 0.276 | 100.50 | 16.3% |
| Smyly | 0.203 | 2.47 | 0.343 | 3.69 | 0.245 | 0.694 | 0.283 | 3.75 | 0.242 | 92.31 | 20.6% |
| Hamels | 0.270 | 1.85 | 0.294 | 2.78 | 0.263 | 0.740 | 0.299 | 3.04 | 0.234 | 103.71 | 23.8% |
| Teheran | 0.289 | 3.36 | 0.272 | 2.43 | 0.243 | 0.661 | 0.263 | 3.55 | 0.225 | 100.07 | 21.2% |
| Wheeler | 0.349 | 4.56 | 0.258 | 2.49 | 0.247 | 0.696 | 0.297 | 3.57 | 0.235 | 103.07 | 22.9% |
| Alvarez | 0.292 | 2.45 | 0.324 | 3.13 | 0.234 | 0.664 | 0.302 | 3.55 | 0.268 | 87.52 | 15.0% |
| Hughes | 0.282 | 2.81 | 0.321 | 4.74 | 0.258 | 0.727 | 0.337 | 2.58 | 0.274 | 94.67 | 21.6% |
| Gausman | 0.329 | 3.04 | 0.301 | 5.12 | 0.250 | 0.713 | 0.313 | 3.58 | 0.266 | 96.53 | 17.1% |
| Cole | 0.325 | 3.06 | 0.309 | 4.18 | 0.254 | 0.686 | 0.303 | 3.54 | 0.243 | 98.94 | 22.4% |
| Lynn | 0.298 | 2.43 | 0.291 | 3.05 | 0.260 | 0.743 | 0.295 | 3.17 | 0.236 | 103.96 | 20.9% |
| Nelson | 0.352 | 5.00 | 0.299 | 3.16 | 0.231 | 0.666 | 0.319 | 3.66 | 0.264 | 93.44 | 19.2% |
| Turner | 0.357 | 5.75 | 0.378 | 5.90 | 0.257 | 0.723 | 0.364 | 3.94 | 0.321 | 60.04 | 14.5% |
| Price | 0.305 | 4.07 | 0.279 | 3.08 | 0.249 | 0.669 | 0.300 | 2.91 | 0.235 | 109.50 | 27.3% |
| Kluber | 0.315 | 2.63 | 0.237 | 2.41 | 0.271 | 0.741 | 0.311 | 2.43 | 0.23 | 103.32 | 27.3% |
| Young | 0.332 | 3.10 | 0.265 | 3.26 | 0.250 | 0.721 | 0.232 | 4.62 | 0.219 | 93.88 | 15.3% |
| Hammel | 0.309 | 3.29 | 0.310 | 4.04 | 0.247 | 0.694 | 0.278 | 4.09 | 0.239 | 95.16 | 21.5% |
| Cahill | 0.385 | 6.94 | 0.303 | 3.66 | 0.229 | 0.639 | 0.345 | 3.71 | 0.278 | 55.67 | 20.3% |
| Ross | 0.281 | 3.03 | 0.283 | 2.25 | 0.250 | 0.689 | 0.281 | 3.24 | 0.22 | 101.07 | 23.8% |
| Hudson | 0.330 | 3.48 | 0.259 | 2.30 | 0.274 | 0.756 | 0.285 | 3.48 | 0.253 | 92.31 | 15.5% |
| Morales | 0.299 | 4.91 | 0.401 | 5.24 | 0.255 | 0.710 | 0.309 | 5.39 | 0.285 | 70.13 | 15.3% |
| Gonzalez | 0.303 | 4.85 | 0.310 | 3.55 | 0.240 | 0.692 | 0.310 | 3.24 | 0.237 | 97.05 | 24.8% |
| Hernandez | 0.300 | 3.27 | 0.310 | 4.27 | 0.245 | 0.704 | 0.260 | 4.35 | 0.232 | 86.63 | 14.5% |
| Lewis | 0.395 | 5.63 | 0.345 | 5.23 | 0.261 | 0.684 | 0.357 | 4.34 | 0.308 | 97.13 | 18.0% |
| Ventura | 0.296 | 2.98 | 0.317 | 4.03 | 0.250 | 0.669 | 0.288 | 3.70 | 0.241 | 95.24 | 20.0% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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