Daily Pitcher Breakdown: May 12th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colon | NYM | NYY | 43.2 | 5.36 | 3.68 | 1.39 | 28.6% | 17.8% | 2.6% | 1.44 | 0.95 |
| Kuroda | NYY | NYM | 42.2 | 4.43 | 3.59 | 1.26 | 42.9% | 18.3% | 3.9% | 0.84 | 1.29 |
| Porcello | DET | BAL | 38.2 | 3.49 | 3.49 | 1.07 | 66.7% | 18.2% | 4.1% | 0.70 | 1.67 |
| Norris | BAL | DET | 35.1 | 3.82 | 4.16 | 1.28 | 16.7% | 17.0% | 7.5% | 1.27 | 1.31 |
| Wilson | LAA | TOR | 47.2 | 3.21 | 3.27 | 1.14 | 57.1% | 24.2% | 8.4% | 0.76 | 1.84 |
| Buehrle | TOR | LAA | 47 | 1.91 | 4.28 | 1.17 | 71.4% | 15.3% | 6.3% | 0.19 | 1.23 |
| Lewis | TEX | HOU | 25 | 6.12 | 3.85 | 1.72 | 17.8% | 4.2% | 1.44 | 0.91 | |
| Peacock | HOU | TEX | 32.1 | 5.01 | 5.13 | 1.74 | 25.0% | 18.7% | 16.0% | 1.11 | 0.97 |
| Wood | CHC | STL | 41.2 | 4.75 | 3.60 | 1.46 | 42.9% | 21.4% | 6.4% | 0.86 | 1.02 |
| Lyons | STL | CHC | 21 | 3.43 | 3.25 | 1.05 | 66.7% | 24.7% | 7.1% | 0.86 | 1.00 |
| Zimmermann | WAS | ARI | 37 | 2.92 | 3.03 | 1.32 | 42.9% | 24.4% | 5.1% | 0.73 | 1.38 |
| Collmenter | ARI | WAS | 36.2 | 3.44 | 4.30 | 1.27 | 20.0% | 15.8% | 6.6% | 0.98 | 0.86 |
| Danks | CWS | OAK | 42 | 4.93 | 4.97 | 1.48 | 28.6% | 15.5% | 11.2% | 0.86 | 0.93 |
| Chavez | OAK | CWS | 43.2 | 2.47 | 2.95 | 1.04 | 71.4% | 25.0% | 5.7% | 0.62 | 1.57 |
| Koehler | MIA | LAD | 45.1 | 1.99 | 4.45 | 1.00 | 85.7% | 16.1% | 9.4% | 0.60 | 1.47 |
| Haren | LAD | MIA | 43.2 | 2.68 | 3.45 | 1.23 | 57.1% | 19.5% | 4.9% | 0.41 | 1.60 |
| Ramos | TBR | SEA | 27.1 | 2.96 | 5.15 | 1.25 | 16.8% | 14.2% | 0.99 | 0.91 | |
| Hernandez | SEA | TBR | 52.2 | 2.73 | 3.00 | 1.11 | 62.5% | 24.2% | 5.5% | 0.51 | 1.64 |
| Floyd | ATL | SFG | 7 | 1.29 | 3.48 | 1.14 | 100.0% | 18.5% | 7.4% | 0.00 | 3.33 |
| Lincecum | SFG | ATL | 35.2 | 5.55 | 3.58 | 1.73 | 14.3% | 21.3% | 6.7% | 1.51 | 1.25 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups. If a guy isn’t listed, it’s just kind of a neutral – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Jordan Zimmermann WAS (at ARI) – The hit rate is a bit alarming (10 H/9), but everything else has been spectacular. The strikeout rate is his best yet (38 in 37 IP) and he’s still not walking anybody. The hit rate will dip as his .362 BABIP settles which in turn will obviously bring the WHIP down. He’s worth the big price tag.
Felix Hernandez SEA (v. TB) – A strikeout-less effort his last time out is a bit disconcerting as he hasn’t done that since 2008, but the six years in between is also why it doesn’t really worry me. He’s been a little “blah” in his last three combined with a 4.15 ERA in 17.3 IP and a 10/8 K/BB ratio, but I don’t see any reason to think he’s in any sort of trouble. I moved him down a bit because you still have to pay a premium to get him, but I haven’t lost confidence.
Dan Haren LAD (v. MIA) – The Marlins on the road has become a thing as they just melt into a horribly inept ballclub on both sides of the ball. This is a prime matchup for Haren so he’ll be a popular pick today. My only concern is that the back cropped up as an issue during his start against Washington and if it becomes anything of a long-term issue, then we will likely see his performance wane. The problem with his back stuff is that he doesn’t usually go on the DL for it, or at least not immediately. I’m using him today, but also keeping a close eye on the start.
Hiroki Kuroda NYY (v. NYM) – Kuroda is working his way down to that 3.32 FIP and he’s still got a 1.11 split between that and his ERA. The Mets give him a great chance to chop more from the 4.43 ERA and he’s been fantastic in a pair of May starts – 2.63 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 15/1 K/BB ratio in 13.7 IP.
Tyler Lyons STL (v. CHC) – It’s almost embarrassing how much talent the Cardinals have… almost. Lyons just comes up for the injured Joe Kelly and the team doesn’t miss a beat. He’s gone six strong in each of his three starts and given a couple of nice relief outings (though the latter doesn’t do anything for us in the daily game). He’s striking out a batter per inning and toting a healthy 3.0 K/BB ratio. The Cubs aren’t a difficult matchup, either.
Jesse Chavez OAK (v. CWS) – Chavez has had a couple of 4 ER hiccups within his last three, but a 7 IP/0 ER gem is sandwiched in between the two. That came in Texas with 8 Ks, too. The White Sox present a difficult matchup, but they are hit-and-miss thanks to a 24% strikeout rate. Chavez hasn’t really leveraged his favorable home ballpark just yet, but I can feel comfortable using him against that tough offense because the park can cover some mistakes.
Travis Wood CHC (at STL) – Here’s an interesting test to see how viable Wood is right now. He’s had two utter duds among his last three (5 and 8 ER at MIL and CWS, respectively), but he gets a Cardinals team that ranks 25th in wOBA against southpaws, continuing a trend from last year, so if he can’t right the ship against them then I’ll start to worry. The skills are strong and he’s been great in the other five starts. I’m taking a shot here, especially with the dropped price at most sites.
C.J. Wilson LAA (at TOR) – This matchup makes me nervous, but Wilson has quietly had a really strong season thus far. He’s going nearly seven innings per start and striking out nearly a batter per inning (46 in 47.7 IP) with a career-best 3.0 BB/9. The Jays do their best against righties, falling to a mid-pack ballclub against lefties. You’re not going to really save money by going with him, but if you want someone who isn’t likely to be heavily-used, you can go with Wilson.
Rick Porcello DET (at BAL) – Porcello has been really good this year holding most of his strikeout gains from last year while also cutting his walk rate significantly generating a career-best 4.5 K/BB ratio. The groundball rate isn’t what it used to be at 44% (after sitting north of 50% throughout his career), but that’s not necessarily a bad thing as he doesn’t have Jose Iglesias to lean on anyway. This isn’t an easy matchup, but the O’s haven’t been as strong as expected. Chris Davis returns, but Matt Wieters departs. Don’t let Nelson Cruz beat you, Rick.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Bartolo Colon NYM (at NYY) – He’s got two horrid outings in Colorado and Anaheim marring his record and giving him a 5.36 ERA. His price dropped across most sites turning him into a value play, especially with the improved strikeout rate. Obviously we’ve seen the downside – a night-ending destruction – but he’s still got the upside to go seven or eight strong with a couple earned runs and a handful of strikeouts.
Gavin Floyd ATL (at SF) – I’ve always been a fan of Floyd and I’ve expected bigger things from him throughout his career yet he’s always just been kind of OK with ERA indicators suggesting he should be much better. Moving back to the NL as a developed arm (he spent ages 21-23 with Philly) should yield some nice results. The Giants offense has faded from their hot start and they just lost Brandon Belt (though he was mired in a horrific slump).
Colby Lewis TEX (at HOU) – Homers have always been an issue for Lewis, but he’s found a way to live with them in past seasons. A bigger issue than his 1.4 HR/9 right now is the 13.7 H/9 inflated by an insane .400 BABIP. That will come down. No better team to bring it down against than the Astros. I think we’ll see Lewis finally go six innings (or more), too.
USE CAUTION:
Mark Buehrle TOR (v. LAA) – I have a tough time backing him on any given single day. Sure, he’s got a 1.91 ERA through his first seven starts with a sparkling 6-1 record. I downed him for the Philly outing and he was fantastic with seven scoreless, but this matchup is much tougher as the Angels carry the second-best wOBA against lefties thus far. Buehrle’s only been pummeled once, but I still feel more trouble is on the way to get that ERA closer to his ERA indicators. Even the friendliest of the indicator is still at 3.02 which is his FIP. Meanwhile he’s got a 4.06 xFIP and 4.29 SIERA. Just be careful.
Tim Lincecum SF (v. ATL) – Can he really be this bad? Listen, if you’re ever going to use Lincecum, this is the kind of matchup to do it. He’s at home against a swing-happy struggling offense (.278 wOBA ranks 28th v. righties). Yet, I understand the trepidation as he’s been poor almost regardless of matchup this year (and last year for that matter). He’s still missing bats and actually not walking anyone this year, but he’s been tossing batting practice up there with a 12.6 H/9 and 1.5 HR/9. Be careful, but if you feel like gambling…
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Tom Koehler MIA (at LAD)
- Cesar Ramos TB (at SEA)
- Josh Collmenter ARI (v. WAS)
- Brad Peacock HOU (v. TEX)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colon | 0.310 | 3.46 | 0.294 | 2.87 | 0.241 | 0.680 | 0.336 | 4.09 | 0.299 | 96.00 | 68.9% |
| Kuroda | 0.327 | 4.04 | 0.272 | 2.89 | 0.215 | 0.612 | 0.311 | 3.31 | 0.267 | 96.00 | 62.8% |
| Porcello | 0.351 | 4.90 | 0.266 | 3.48 | 0.271 | 0.717 | 0.286 | 3.16 | 0.246 | 97.67 | 65.7% |
| Norris | 0.379 | 5.26 | 0.295 | 2.85 | 0.277 | 0.736 | 0.284 | 4.78 | 0.258 | 100.50 | 64.0% |
| Wilson | 0.227 | 2.27 | 0.327 | 3.73 | 0.260 | 0.762 | 0.279 | 3.37 | 0.221 | 116.29 | 59.6% |
| Buehrle | 0.318 | 4.13 | 0.327 | 3.65 | 0.264 | 0.784 | 0.288 | 3.02 | 0.244 | 97.57 | 63.1% |
| Lewis | 0.387 | 5.87 | 0.404 | 6.75 | 0.205 | 0.648 | 0.400 | 4.44 | 0.345 | 86.20 | 64.5% |
| Peacock | 0.378 | 6.16 | 0.295 | 3.88 | 0.247 | 0.667 | 0.298 | 5.18 | 0.254 | 142.50 | 59.3% |
| Wood | 0.263 | 2.75 | 0.305 | 3.62 | 0.227 | 0.649 | 0.341 | 3.42 | 0.277 | 103.86 | 65.5% |
| Lyons | 0.257 | 4.58 | 0.320 | 4.33 | 0.241 | 0.686 | 0.255 | 3.32 | 0.205 | 98.00 | 66.7% |
| Zimmermann | 0.311 | 3.52 | 0.274 | 2.94 | 0.250 | 0.680 | 0.362 | 2.89 | 0.281 | 83.86 | 68.0% |
| Collmenter | 0.330 | 4.01 | 0.285 | 2.74 | 0.239 | 0.683 | 0.281 | 4.01 | 0.254 | 114.40 | 65.9% |
| Danks | 0.348 | 4.62 | 0.340 | 4.90 | 0.239 | 0.682 | 0.280 | 4.51 | 0.248 | 106.71 | 61.0% |
| Chavez | 0.301 | 3.79 | 0.234 | 2.74 | 0.272 | 0.762 | 0.271 | 2.71 | 0.212 | 95.86 | 67.2% |
| Koehler | 0.295 | 4.20 | 0.333 | 3.56 | 0.266 | 0.741 | 0.195 | 3.98 | 0.175 | 97.71 | 61.3% |
| Haren | 0.311 | 4.91 | 0.336 | 3.75 | 0.258 | 0.743 | 0.307 | 2.71 | 0.251 | 101.43 | 64.8% |
| Ramos | 0.311 | 4.81 | 0.302 | 3.10 | 0.229 | 0.605 | 0.200 | 4.87 | 0.186 | 80.20 | 59.4% |
| Hernandez | 0.296 | 3.47 | 0.268 | 2.44 | 0.260 | 0.730 | 0.291 | 2.66 | 0.225 | 99.13 | 66.5% |
| Floyd | 0.376 | 4.76 | 0.334 | 3.77 | 0.225 | 0.668 | 0.300 | 2.51 | 0.24 | 104.00 | 63.5% |
| Lincecum | 0.317 | 4.28 | 0.342 | 4.83 | 0.227 | 0.639 | 0.393 | 4.23 | 0.327 | 91.86 | 64.9% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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