Daily Pitcher Breakdown: May 7th (Late)
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolasco | MIN | CLE | 38.2 | 5.82 | 4.70 | 1.62 | 16.7% | 11.2% | 5.9% | 1.40 | 1.31 |
| Salazar | CLE | MIN | 30.1 | 5.93 | 3.48 | 1.73 | 16.7% | 26.8% | 10.1% | 1.78 | 0.86 |
| Lee | PHI | TOR | 48.0 | 3.00 | 2.80 | 1.29 | 57.1% | 22.4% | 3.0% | 0.56 | 2.03 |
| Buehrle | TOR | PHI | 40.0 | 2.25 | 4.40 | 1.25 | 66.7% | 14.0% | 6.1% | 0.23 | 1.33 |
| Peacock | HOU | DET | 25.2 | 5.26 | 5.04 | 1.90 | 33.3% | 19.7% | 16.4% | 0.70 | 1.18 |
| Porcello | DET | HOU | 32.0 | 3.66 | 3.35 | 1.00 | 60.0% | 18.2% | 3.3% | 0.84 | 1.91 |
| Norris | BAL | TBR | 29.2 | 3.94 | 4.13 | 1.30 | 20.0% | 16.3% | 5.7% | 1.21 | 1.15 |
| Ramos | TBR | BAL | 21.2 | 2.91 | 5.40 | 1.37 | 0.0% | 16.3% | 15.2% | 0.42 | 0.85 |
| Wainwright | STL | ATL | 50.0 | 2.16 | 3.33 | 0.94 | 71.4% | 24.0% | 6.8% | 0.36 | 1.23 |
| Minor | ATL | STL | 6.0 | 3.00 | 3.45 | 1.17 | 100.0% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| Leake | CIN | BOS | 43.1 | 3.53 | 3.70 | 1.04 | 33.3% | 14.7% | 4.7% | 1.25 | 2.08 |
| Peavy | BOS | CIN | 37.2 | 2.87 | 4.42 | 1.37 | 83.3% | 22.4% | 13.0% | 1.43 | 0.80 |
| De La Rosa | COL | TEX | 37.0 | 5.11 | 3.95 | 1.41 | 28.6% | 19.6% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 1.97 |
| Lewis | TEX | COL | 21.1 | 4.22 | 3.59 | 1.47 | 0.0% | 20.8% | 5.2% | 1.27 | 0.96 |
| Wood | CHC | CWS | 37.2 | 3.35 | 3.26 | 1.26 | 50.0% | 22.7% | 4.3% | 0.72 | 1.02 |
| Danks | CWS | CHC | 36.0 | 5.00 | 5.51 | 1.58 | 33.3% | 12.9% | 12.3% | 0.75 | 0.90 |
| Nuno | NYY | LAA | 18.1 | 6.87 | 4.32 | 1.77 | 0.0% | 20.5% | 12.1% | 1.96 | 1.21 |
| Santiago | LAA | NYY | 32.1 | 5.01 | 4.55 | 1.46 | 16.7% | 19.7% | 10.6% | 1.39 | 0.59 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
BEST BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups. An ace facing another ace won’t find his way in here because the win probability for both is sliced significantly by facing each other.
Adam Wainwright, STL (at ATL) – There will be zeroes all around in Atlanta on Wednesday night so you should probably look elsewhere for bats. His struggle against the Cubs last time is a clear outlier compared to everything he did in April. He’s going deep into games, missing bats, and still not walking anybody. Hilariously the Cubs have 10 of his 12 earned runs this year so maybe they know something everyone else doesn’t.
Mike Minor, ATL (v. STL) – Minor took a tough loss in his season debut, but he was sharp apart from a couple of solo shots. The Cardinals are horrid against lefties (continuing a trend from last year) making Minor an even better pick. He went six strong with 80 pitches last time; he should at least be given more pitches in his second outing assuming the shackles aren’t off entirely.
Rick Porcello, DET (v. HOU) – While we haven’t seen Porcello’s usual 50+ groundball percentage, he still looks great early on. He’s kept most his strikeout gains from 2013, trimmed his walks, and gone into the seventh in four of his five starts. The Astros give him a chance to continue that fine start. They ranked 26th in OPS against righties and they strike out a quarter of the time.
Cliff Lee, PHI (at TOR) – After a barrel of hits in his first four starts, we’ve seen Lee yield just four in two of his last three outings. Meanwhile, since that 8 ER nightmare on Opening Day, he’s allowed eight more earned runs in six starts. At his best, neither matchup nor venue matter in the least and he’s damn-near his best right now.
Travis Wood, CHC (at CWS) – Wood’s been great this year with only one real stinker. The best part is the added strikeout component to his game. He’s just short of a strikeout per inning and has a pair of 9 K outings as well as eight spot in his season debut. The White Sox are a strong offense, but their heavy swing-and-miss tendencies can put em in a dry spell quickly (as we saw against Edwin Jackson). I don’t love the matchup for Wood or Lee, but they both deserve heavy consideration today even at lofty prices.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Danny Salazar, CLE (v. MIN) – The offense has cooled for the Twins of late making this an easier matchup than it might initially look on paper. But Salazar has struggled with matchups of all levels. He really only has the one good start in San Francisco (7 IP/1 ER/8 K), but that and more remains an enticing upside and the price is ripe for a gamble.
John Danks, CWS (v. CHC) – Fives are wild for Danks as he’s toting a 5.00 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, and 5.3 K/9 and yet he’s still worth some consideration against the Cubs. They are 25th in scoring with just 3.8 runs per game and they have a modest 712 OPS against lefties. Meanwhile they don’t have many patient hitters who would be prone to waiting Danks out to exploit his walk issues. He certainly won’t cost you much of your budget so he could pair nicely with expensive arms Wainwright or Lee or pair him with another cheaper option so you can afford to buy Tulowitzki’s all-but-guaranteed 3-4 night with a homer, five RBIs, and three runs scored.
Cesar Ramos, TB (v. BAL) – This is a strict matchup play. He’d have to be at least your second and possibly even your third pitcher (like at DraftStreet) to really consider him. His cap would be six innings almost no matter how he’s pitching. Ramos hasn’t been great as a starter, but the O’s have a 651 OPS against lefties so maybe he can throw a strong five with a bushel of strikeouts for virtually no cost.
Ricky Nolasco, MIN (at CLE) – This is another matchup play and it has more upside, but also more downside so I slotted Nolasco behind Ramos. Sure, he’s coming off of a complete game, but it’s one of two flashes we’ve seen from him this year. And the ugly results aren’t just some exorbitant BABIP and HR/FB rates, rather the skills have cratered, particularly the 11.2% strikeout rate (career 19%) and 7.5% swinging strike rate (career 9.4%).
USE CAUTION:
Mike Leake, CIN (at BOS) – Leake has been mostly good so far this season and his worst outings certainly haven’t killed you (4 ER in three starts, he went 7 IP twice and 6 IP the other time), but he’s expensive relative to his upside.
Bud Norris, BAL (at TB) – What happened to that strikeouts? He’s look good, he’s looked OK, and he’s looked bad. That just about sums up any five-start stretch for Norris.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Mark Buehrle, TOR (v. PHI)
- Hector Santiago, LAA (v. NYY)
- Jorge de la Rosa, COL (at TEX)
- Colby Lewis, TEX (v. COL)
- Vidal Nuno, NYY (at LAA)
- Brad Peacock, HOU (at DET)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolasco | 0.343 | 4.59 | 0.296 | 3.57 | 0.243 | 0.695 | 0.341 | 4.92 | 0.325 | 100.67 | 63.2% |
| Salazar | 0.300 | 3.02 | 0.363 | 5.09 | 0.256 | 0.746 | 0.395 | 4.63 | 0.306 | 93.50 | 60.4% |
| Lee | 0.235 | 2.34 | 0.299 | 3.08 | 0.252 | 0.729 | 0.361 | 2.42 | 0.287 | 105.29 | 69.7% |
| Buehrle | 0.327 | 4.35 | 0.329 | 3.72 | 0.287 | 0.782 | 0.305 | 3.18 | 0.263 | 97.00 | 62.9% |
| Peacock | 0.379 | 6.28 | 0.297 | 3.83 | 0.277 | 0.739 | 0.342 | 4.59 | 0.275 | 155.00 | 59.4% |
| Porcello | 0.348 | 4.87 | 0.270 | 3.60 | 0.207 | 0.659 | 0.272 | 3.33 | 0.239 | 97.20 | 66.3% |
| Norris | 0.377 | 5.19 | 0.300 | 2.97 | 0.259 | 0.734 | 0.303 | 4.52 | 0.274 | 100.40 | 65.9% |
| Ramos | 0.306 | 4.86 | 0.304 | 3.07 | 0.227 | 0.640 | 0.226 | 4.26 | 0.192 | 82.25 | 58.7% |
| Wainwright | 0.280 | 3.38 | 0.271 | 2.26 | 0.226 | 0.645 | 0.246 | 2.63 | 0.191 | 100.57 | 66.3% |
| Minor | 0.260 | 2.72 | 0.300 | 3.41 | 0.202 | 0.574 | 0.278 | 6.11 | 0.292 | 80.00 | 68.8% |
| Leake | 0.323 | 3.48 | 0.303 | 3.30 | 0.247 | 0.711 | 0.240 | 4.45 | 0.231 | 98.83 | 62.7% |
| Peavy | 0.321 | 4.19 | 0.298 | 3.72 | 0.258 | 0.714 | 0.245 | 4.94 | 0.214 | 107.33 | 62.0% |
| De La Rosa | 0.249 | 2.53 | 0.346 | 4.20 | 0.309 | 0.828 | 0.290 | 4.68 | 0.250 | 94.71 | 60.5% |
| Lewis | 0.357 | 4.85 | 0.345 | 3.38 | 0.291 | 0.822 | 0.354 | 4.19 | 0.295 | 88.00 | 65.6% |
| Wood | 0.266 | 2.79 | 0.297 | 3.27 | 0.252 | 0.708 | 0.325 | 2.90 | 0.260 | 106.33 | 66.5% |
| Danks | 0.354 | 4.79 | 0.342 | 4.86 | 0.270 | 0.750 | 0.288 | 4.78 | 0.261 | 108.17 | 60.4% |
| Nuno | 0.368 | 7.71 | 0.348 | 3.73 | 0.270 | 0.800 | 0.346 | 5.73 | 0.301 | 104.00 | 63.1% |
| Santiago | 0.319 | 3.71 | 0.338 | 3.93 | 0.288 | 0.776 | 0.293 | 4.96 | 0.256 | 96.00 | 60.6% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window