Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Monday, April 13th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harang | PHI | NYM | 204.1 | 3.57 | 4.18 | 1.40 | 75.0% | 18.4% | 8.1% | 0.66 | 1.04 |
| Degrom | NYM | PHI | 140.1 | 2.69 | 3.19 | 1.14 | 50.0% | 25.5% | 7.6% | 0.45 | 1.44 |
| Sanchez | DET | PIT | 126 | 3.43 | 3.64 | 1.10 | 41.2% | 19.8% | 5.8% | 0.29 | 1.31 |
| Cole | PIT | DET | 138 | 3.65 | 3.23 | 1.21 | 28.6% | 24.2% | 7.0% | 0.72 | 1.55 |
| Zimmermann | WAS | BOS | 199.2 | 2.66 | 3.15 | 1.07 | 52.6% | 22.8% | 3.6% | 0.59 | 1.12 |
| Porcello | BOS | WAS | 204.2 | 3.43 | 3.88 | 1.23 | 55.6% | 15.4% | 4.9% | 0.79 | 1.69 |
| Duffy | KCR | MIN | 149.1 | 2.53 | 4.31 | 1.11 | 57.1% | 18.7% | 8.8% | 0.72 | 0.78 |
| May | MIN | KCR | 45.2 | 7.88 | 4.20 | 1.77 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 1.38 | 0.86 | |
| Garza | MIL | STL | 163.1 | 3.64 | 4.02 | 1.18 | 35.0% | 18.5% | 7.4% | 0.66 | 1.20 |
| Wainwright | STL | MIL | 227 | 2.38 | 3.52 | 1.03 | 84.2% | 19.9% | 5.6% | 0.40 | 1.56 |
| Butler | COL | SFG | 16 | 6.75 | 5.65 | 1.88 | 4.0% | 9.2% | 1.13 | 2.20 | |
| Heston | SFG | COL | |||||||||
| Pineda | NYY | BAL | 76.1 | 1.89 | 3.38 | 0.83 | 75.0% | 20.3% | 2.4% | 0.59 | 0.92 |
| Chen | BAL | NYY | 185.2 | 3.54 | 3.85 | 1.23 | 31.6% | 17.6% | 4.5% | 1.11 | 1.09 |
| Odorizzi | TBR | TOR | 168 | 4.13 | 3.66 | 1.28 | 36.8% | 24.2% | 8.2% | 1.07 | 0.61 |
| Dickey | TOR | TBR | 215.2 | 3.71 | 4.08 | 1.23 | 47.6% | 18.9% | 8.1% | 1.09 | 1.12 |
| Latos | MIA | ATL | 102.1 | 3.25 | 4.08 | 1.15 | 66.7% | 17.6% | 6.2% | 0.79 | 0.94 |
| Miller | ATL | MIA | 183 | 3.74 | 4.60 | 1.27 | 21.1% | 16.6% | 9.6% | 1.08 | 0.97 |
| Leake | CIN | CHC | 214.1 | 3.70 | 3.51 | 1.25 | 45.0% | 18.2% | 5.5% | 0.97 | 2.02 |
| Lester | CHC | CIN | 219.2 | 2.46 | 3.09 | 1.10 | 65.0% | 24.9% | 5.4% | 0.66 | 1.14 |
| Shoemaker | LAA | TEX | 136 | 3.04 | 3.19 | 1.07 | 44.4% | 22.8% | 4.4% | 0.93 | 1.05 |
| Detwiler | TEX | LAA | 63 | 4.00 | 4.13 | 1.41 | 14.2% | 7.7% | 0.71 | 1.40 | |
| Kazmir | OAK | HOU | 190.1 | 3.55 | 3.61 | 1.16 | 63.2% | 21.1% | 6.4% | 0.76 | 1.18 |
| Feldman | HOU | OAK | 180.1 | 3.74 | 4.33 | 1.30 | 47.1% | 14.0% | 6.5% | 0.80 | 1.53 |
| De La Rosa | ARI | SDP | 101.2 | 4.43 | 4.21 | 1.49 | 57.1% | 16.8% | 7.9% | 1.06 | 1.42 |
| Cashner | SDP | ARI | 123.1 | 2.55 | 3.70 | 1.13 | 75.0% | 18.4% | 5.7% | 0.51 | 1.54 |
| Paxton | SEA | LAD | 74 | 3.04 | 3.80 | 1.20 | 50.0% | 19.5% | 9.6% | 0.36 | 2.43 |
| McCarthy | LAD | SEA | 200 | 4.05 | 3.00 | 1.28 | 35.0% | 20.9% | 4.0% | 1.13 | 2.13 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Jon Lester CHC (vs. CIN) – Lester is the only player worthy of the “all in” designation today, as he combines the most impressive resume, the cleanest track record, and one of the better matchups of the pitchers available tonight. The left-hander was hit hard by the Cards in his start on Opening Eve, bunching eight hits through just 4.3 innings and hitting the showers early. Lester should be in better shape against the Reds, where his southpaw stylings will earn him a heavy platoon advantage against middle-order hitters Joey Votto and Jay Bruce. There’s also the possibility that Billy Hamilton runs wild, especially considering Lester’s reputation for never throwing over to first base, and the running game will be an interesting subplot to this game.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Andrew Cashner SD (vs. ARI) – Cashner was the personal whipping boy of Adrian Gonzalez last week, but Cash was off of his game regardless of who was at the plate. He gets a better situation for his second turn, facing a weaker offense with San Diego’s marine layer in the backdrop, though his greatest obstacle will once again be an intimidating first baseman. Arizona’s Paul Goldschmidt has line-drive power to all fields but the lineup is weak outside of its cornerstone, and Cashner could have a big day if he stays out of Goldie’s wheelhouse.
Scott Kazmir OAK (at HOU) – Kazmir will have to be careful with the Astros, who as a team hit lefties to an OPS that was 74 points higher than when facing right-handers last season. Jose Altuve is an equal opportunity pest, new recruit Evan Gattis has an OPS split that leans 135 points to the south side, Chris Carter mashes lefties and George Springer feasted on southpaws in the minors. Kazmir has great than usual upside in this game, but he also has the downside to match.
Michael Pineda NYY (at BAL) – Pineda has been dominant on the mound throughout his career, majors and minors, but staying on the hump has been the issue. This makes him a great play in DFS, where the injury concern is minimized and the upside is a top-of-the-rotation starter for a discount price. He draws an Oriole club that is teeming with sluggers, testing Pineda’s low home run rate, but the skill sets match up for the right-hander to have a big day on the hill. In two starts against Baltimore last season, Pineda gave up one run over 12.3 innings, allowing just four baserunners and striking out a dozen O’s.
R.A. Dickey TOR (vs. TB) – Tampa had trouble with the knuckleball last season, tallying just 16 hits across 25 frames in four starts against Dickey, but their passivity led to a high walk rate and enough runs on the scoreboard to split those games in the win column. Dickey should try to steer clear of Evan Longoria (to the extent that he can steer the knuckler), who has a career line of .267/.353/.567 with a pair of homers in 34 head-to-head meetings.
Jake Odorizzi TB (at TOR) – Odorizzi continues to confuse batters and analysts alike with an approach that favors movement and location over raw velocity. His performance continued on its upward trend from last season’s breakout, blanking the big-hitting Orioles over 6.7 innings of two-hit baseball with seven K’s. As impressive as that performance was, he faces an even bigger test from the hard-hitting Blue Jays, who just took two of three from the O’s in Baltimore.
Brandon McCarthy LAD (vs. SEA) – McCarthy is similar to Pineda in terms of injury risk clouding his value, and though the praying mantis offers a different set of parameters with his profile, like Pineda he also offers an extremely low walk rate – McCarthy hasn’t posted a season with 2.0 or more walk per nine innings since 2009. He increased velocity last season and that jump has carried over into 2015, averaging 94.5 mph on his fastball to put him right on track with the velo from last April.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harang | 0.330 | 2.86 | 0.312 | 4.17 | 0.241 | 0.685 | 0.318 | 3.57 | 0.267 | 102.85 | 18.4% |
| Degrom | 0.289 | 2.34 | 0.264 | 2.94 | 0.243 | 0.662 | 0.297 | 2.67 | 0.225 | 101.64 | 25.5% |
| Sanchez | 0.251 | 2.48 | 0.290 | 4.89 | 0.260 | 0.746 | 0.277 | 2.71 | 0.225 | 95.32 | 19.8% |
| Cole | 0.326 | 2.81 | 0.294 | 4.38 | 0.274 | 0.745 | 0.311 | 3.23 | 0.243 | 99.86 | 24.2% |
| Zimmermann | 0.290 | 2.92 | 0.269 | 2.41 | 0.245 | 0.682 | 0.302 | 2.68 | 0.242 | 91.38 | 22.8% |
| Porcello | 0.320 | 3.12 | 0.302 | 3.83 | 0.248 | 0.709 | 0.298 | 3.67 | 0.265 | 95.47 | 15.4% |
| Duffy | 0.185 | 1.46 | 0.299 | 2.88 | 0.260 | 0.708 | 0.239 | 3.83 | 0.206 | 78.35 | 18.7% |
| May | 0.393 | 5.57 | 0.394 | 9.85 | 0.261 | 0.682 | 0.377 | 4.77 | 0.312 | 0.00 | 20.7% |
| Garza | 0.285 | 3.27 | 0.289 | 3.93 | 0.252 | 0.679 | 0.268 | 3.54 | 0.228 | 94.00 | 18.5% |
| Wainwright | 0.277 | 2.27 | 0.243 | 2.46 | 0.254 | 0.708 | 0.267 | 2.88 | 0.219 | 101.81 | 19.9% |
| Butler | 0.334 | 5.06 | 0.253 | 0.695 | 0.328 | 5.69 | 0.333 | 0.00 | 4.0% | ||
| Heston | 0.276 | 0.763 | |||||||||
| Pineda | 0.233 | 1.33 | 0.230 | 2.52 | 0.257 | 0.732 | 0.233 | 2.71 | 0.198 | 87.69 | 20.3% |
| Chen | 0.298 | 3.20 | 0.326 | 3.65 | 0.260 | 0.712 | 0.296 | 3.89 | 0.263 | 96.03 | 17.6% |
| Odorizzi | 0.294 | 4.15 | 0.324 | 4.09 | 0.263 | 0.750 | 0.295 | 3.75 | 0.238 | 97.68 | 24.2% |
| Dickey | 0.300 | 2.97 | 0.324 | 4.32 | 0.246 | 0.681 | 0.263 | 4.32 | 0.231 | 103.32 | 18.9% |
| Latos | 0.271 | 2.57 | 0.306 | 3.88 | 0.236 | 0.651 | 0.269 | 3.65 | 0.235 | 95.81 | 17.6% |
| Miller | 0.314 | 4.19 | 0.307 | 3.38 | 0.247 | 0.690 | 0.256 | 4.54 | 0.232 | 89.31 | 16.6% |
| Leake | 0.352 | 3.91 | 0.297 | 3.54 | 0.233 | 0.671 | 0.298 | 3.88 | 0.259 | 97.42 | 18.2% |
| Lester | 0.309 | 1.99 | 0.275 | 2.59 | 0.236 | 0.675 | 0.299 | 2.80 | 0.233 | 109.16 | 24.9% |
| Shoemaker | 0.308 | 3.34 | 0.271 | 2.73 | 0.249 | 0.663 | 0.286 | 3.26 | 0.237 | 77.81 | 22.8% |
| Detwiler | 0.235 | 1.61 | 0.368 | 5.31 | 0.273 | 0.763 | 0.309 | 4.16 | 0.274 | 22.04 | 14.2% |
| Kazmir | 0.304 | 3.68 | 0.285 | 3.51 | 0.267 | 0.747 | 0.285 | 3.35 | 0.237 | 93.22 | 21.1% |
| Feldman | 0.314 | 2.78 | 0.325 | 4.86 | 0.246 | 0.709 | 0.291 | 4.11 | 0.263 | 102.21 | 14.0% |
| De La Rosa | 0.364 | 4.25 | 0.348 | 4.62 | 0.229 | 0.640 | 0.327 | 4.30 | 0.287 | 92.16 | 16.8% |
| Cashner | 0.294 | 3.45 | 0.256 | 1.71 | 0.250 | 0.679 | 0.274 | 3.09 | 0.231 | 94.58 | 18.4% |
| Paxton | 0.251 | 1.46 | 0.281 | 3.36 | 0.248 | 0.716 | 0.270 | 3.28 | 0.22 | 90.92 | 19.5% |
| McCarthy | 0.330 | 4.01 | 0.321 | 4.10 | 0.246 | 0.697 | 0.328 | 3.55 | 0.278 | 95.13 | 20.9% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
James Paxton SEA (at LAD) – Paxton’s unusual delivery can catch opponents off-guard, especially the first time around, and the Dodgers might struggle to pick up the baseball as they adapt to facing Paxton for the first time. Expect Howie Kendrick to be talkative in the dugout, relaying his 11 plate appearances of Paxton experience to his teammates.
Shelby Miller ATL (vs. MIA) – Miller brought huge velocity to the table in his first start of the season (average of 95.5 mph, higher than all but one career start), and it makes you take notice when a young arm shows higher radar-gun readings during the opening week of the season. It’s common for pitchers to start low and then increase velocity into the summer, though not every pitcher follows that convenient bell curve of fatigue and Miller’s past raises the question of stamina over the course of the season.
Matt Shoemaker LAA (at TEX) – This is a good matchup for Shoemaker if he can keep the ball in the yard, a job to which his late-diving splitter is well-suited. The Rangers have a better offense than what we’ve seen thus far and I could see a big score coming for them in the very near future.
Mat Latos MIA (at ATL) – Latos was torn asunder in his first start of the season, and though Atlanta’s lineup is reminiscent of the mid-80’s team that introduced me to TBS, the right-hander is catching them at the wrong time. There are a couple of factors that might sway someone to try their hand at Latos, but I’m waiting for a solid performance before rostering him.
Rubby De La Rosa ARI (at SD) – The raw skills are there from the standpoint of both stuff and mechanics, and a night game in San Diego is enticing for any pitcher. There is a huge error band in terms of his likely performance, but given the pummeling that he took at the hands of the Penceless Giants, I’m gonna sit this one out until the skills start to shine through.
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Scott Feldman HOU (vs. OAK)
Ross Detwiler TEX (vs. LAA) – He’s an underappreciated pitcher, but this is the wrong team in the wrong ballpark to roll the dice on Detwiler.
Mike Leake CIN (at CHC)
Wei-Yin Chen BAL (vs. NYY)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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