Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Monday, April 20th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chen | BAL | BOS | 185.2 | 3.54 | 3.85 | 1.23 | 31.6% | 17.6% | 4.5% | 1.11 | 1.09 |
| Masterson | BOS | BAL | 128.2 | 5.88 | 4.03 | 1.63 | 36.8% | 19.6% | 11.7% | 0.84 | 2.70 |
| Arrieta | CHC | PIT | 156.2 | 2.53 | 2.83 | 0.99 | 50.0% | 27.2% | 6.7% | 0.29 | 1.73 |
| Burnett | PIT | CHC | 213.2 | 4.59 | 4.00 | 1.41 | 38.1% | 20.3% | 10.3% | 0.84 | 1.78 |
| Sabathia | NYY | DET | 46 | 5.28 | 3.07 | 1.48 | 25.0% | 23.0% | 4.8% | 1.96 | 1.63 |
| Simon | DET | NYY | 196.1 | 3.44 | 4.17 | 1.21 | 63.2% | 15.5% | 6.9% | 1.01 | 1.57 |
| Desclafani | CIN | MIL | 33 | 6.27 | 3.70 | 1.36 | 20.0% | 17.8% | 3.4% | 1.09 | 0.88 |
| Peralta | MIL | CIN | 198.2 | 3.53 | 3.73 | 1.30 | 47.4% | 18.4% | 7.3% | 1.04 | 1.94 |
| Gibson | MIN | KCR | 179.1 | 4.47 | 4.18 | 1.31 | 52.6% | 14.1% | 7.5% | 0.60 | 2.05 |
| Volquez | KCR | MIN | 192.2 | 3.04 | 4.20 | 1.23 | 50.0% | 17.3% | 8.8% | 0.79 | 1.53 |
| Bauer | CLE | CWS | 153 | 4.18 | 3.95 | 1.38 | 38.5% | 21.6% | 9.1% | 0.94 | 0.85 |
| Danks | CWS | CLE | 193.2 | 4.74 | 4.64 | 1.44 | 50.0% | 15.1% | 8.7% | 1.16 | 1.10 |
| Despaigne | SDP | COL | 96.1 | 3.36 | 4.14 | 1.21 | 100.0% | 16.1% | 7.9% | 0.56 | 1.80 |
| De La Rosa | COL | SDP | 184.1 | 4.10 | 4.05 | 1.24 | 40.0% | 18.1% | 8.7% | 1.03 | 1.69 |
| Graveman | OAK | LAA | |||||||||
| Shoemaker | LAA | OAK | 136 | 3.04 | 3.19 | 1.07 | 44.4% | 22.8% | 4.4% | 0.93 | 1.05 |
| Wojciechowski | HOU | SEA | |||||||||
| Iwakuma | SEA | HOU | 179 | 3.52 | 2.94 | 1.05 | 60.0% | 21.7% | 3.0% | 1.01 | 1.75 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
There is no pitcher on today’s slate that fits the all-in mode. This space is reserved for the top 15 or so arms, or those on the cusp who are facing an easy opponent. None of those exist for the April 20th slate of games, so move along. There’s nothing to see here.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Jake Arrieta CHC (at PIT) – Arrieta is the best pitcher on today’s menu. His velocity has already reached last year’s average, while both the slider and curve look sharp and are generating strikeouts. The slider is more a slider/cutter hybrid, traveling 90 mph with late break, but the amount of movement and trajectory of the pitch earn it the slider label. Pittsburgh is struggling a bit on offense, carrying a 636 OPS that qualifies in the bottom-third of the National League, and today’s matchup with Arrieta could send them further down the ladder.
Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (vs. HOU) – Iwakuma has had two rough starts in a row, and though we could target a blister for interfering with his work in the first go-around, we had no such excuse in round two. To be fair, he started off against two excellent offenses from Los Angeles in his first two starts, and the setup with the Astros is a much friendlier matchup. Houston cures all pitchers’ woes, with an AL-low 2.83 runs per game and an MLB-high 114 strikeouts through their first 12 games.
A.J. Burnett PIT (vs. CHC) – Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage works some kind of magic with Burnett, getting him to repeat the timing aspects of his delivery to post solid walk rates that Burnett he hasn’t been able to muster outside of Pittsburgh since the mid-aughts. He has been a K compiler for his entire career, and though the Cubs lineup is full of potential landmines, there is plenty of swing-n-miss on that roster and Burnett could return a tidy profit if he keeps the ball in the yard.
Trevor Bauer CLE (at CHW) – This one is all about the K potential. We know that he might walk a half-dozen guys, but he also might shut them down to just a few hits. If one of those hits involves Jose Abreu and ducks on the pond then it could be a rough day, but Bauer is a great dice-roll. The upside is tremendous.
Anthony DeSclafani CIN (at MIL) – This guy is sneaky good. He has an above-average fastball, coming in at 92-95 mph with occasional sinking action, and a put-away slider that he uses in K counts. He has started throwing more changeups this season, tripling his frequency in order to have a better weapon against left-handers, and the early returns are encouraging. DeSclafani should have a relatively task, facing a struggling Milwaukee lineup that is without Carlos Gomez.
Matt Shoemaker LAA (vs. OAK) – He just keeps defying expectations, putting up excellent peripheral stats with mediocre stuff. The same could be said for Oakland, whose offense has proven to have big-game potential. Shoemaker has been loving the flyball in the first two games of the year, both of which were on the road, and he might have been taking lessons from Jered Weaver about what works best in Angels Stadium.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chen | 0.298 | 3.20 | 0.326 | 3.65 | 0.242 | 0.690 | 0.296 | 3.89 | 0.263 | 96.03 | 17.6% |
| Masterson | 0.400 | 6.68 | 0.332 | 4.99 | 0.257 | 0.732 | 0.339 | 4.50 | 0.278 | 0.00 | 19.6% |
| Arrieta | 0.251 | 2.18 | 0.234 | 2.81 | 0.260 | 0.746 | 0.274 | 2.26 | 0.2 | 96.64 | 27.2% |
| Burnett | 0.350 | 5.22 | 0.316 | 4.06 | 0.233 | 0.671 | 0.302 | 4.14 | 0.249 | 102.12 | 20.3% |
| Sabathia | 0.401 | 4.85 | 0.285 | 0.789 | 0.350 | 4.78 | 0.297 | 99.75 | 23.0% | ||
| Simon | 0.313 | 3.92 | 0.296 | 2.97 | 0.240 | 0.677 | 0.265 | 4.33 | 0.241 | 94.19 | 15.5% |
| Desclafani | 0.391 | 6.89 | 0.307 | 5.71 | 0.254 | 0.708 | 0.330 | 3.77 | 0.288 | 0.00 | 17.8% |
| Peralta | 0.361 | 5.12 | 0.277 | 2.08 | 0.238 | 0.657 | 0.295 | 4.11 | 0.257 | 99.75 | 18.4% |
| Gibson | 0.315 | 4.11 | 0.291 | 4.84 | 0.261 | 0.682 | 0.287 | 3.80 | 0.255 | 90.32 | 14.1% |
| Volquez | 0.321 | 3.44 | 0.286 | 2.74 | 0.251 | 0.715 | 0.263 | 4.15 | 0.229 | 93.03 | 17.3% |
| Bauer | 0.324 | 4.34 | 0.329 | 4.02 | 0.251 | 0.705 | 0.312 | 4.01 | 0.255 | 99.65 | 21.6% |
| Danks | 0.317 | 4.11 | 0.355 | 4.96 | 0.252 | 0.672 | 0.291 | 4.76 | 0.266 | 103.06 | 15.1% |
| Despaigne | 0.322 | 3.09 | 0.255 | 3.62 | 0.276 | 0.763 | 0.267 | 3.74 | 0.232 | 96.81 | 16.1% |
| De La Rosa | 0.241 | 2.47 | 0.336 | 4.61 | 0.220 | 0.616 | 0.263 | 4.34 | 0.233 | 95.84 | 18.1% |
| Graveman | 0.254 | 0.716 | |||||||||
| Shoemaker | 0.308 | 3.34 | 0.271 | 2.73 | 0.246 | 0.709 | 0.286 | 3.26 | 0.237 | 77.81 | 22.8% |
| Wojciechowski | 0.246 | 0.697 | |||||||||
| Iwakuma | 0.309 | 3.42 | 0.252 | 3.62 | 0.233 | 0.673 | 0.287 | 3.25 | 0.243 | 90.79 | 21.7% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Edinson Volquez KC (vs. MIN) – We’ve all been burned by Volquez at some point in the last five years. It’s inevitable. Just when you’re ready to quit him, once and for all, he’s back again. The right-hander has averaged 95 mph on the gun, his changeup is generating strikeouts by the barrel (7 of his 12 Ks so far). He’s only surrendered three extra-base hits so far, and he gets to face oen of the weakest offenses in the American League. I don’t like it either, but he’s a pretty good buy.
Wily Peralta MIL (vs. CIN) – For years it seems, we’ve all been waiting for the stats (especially the strikeouts) to back up the stuff for Peralta, but somewhere along the way he lost some of the stuff. It could just be an April-related blip on the radar, but in his first two starts Perala is averaging just 94.1 mph on his fastball, which would be a fine reading for most pitchers but represents a 2.5-mph drop for the right-hander. He could take some time to build up to the 96.6 mph with heat of last season, but anything more than a two-mph drop raises an eyebrow, and the other brow raises upon learning that his velo last April was 96.1 mph. Buyers beware.
Alfredo Simon DET (vs. NYY) – Simon has a sparkling track record of run prevention over the past 13 months, dating back to when he made the switch from relief to the rotation. Since 2014, he has 209.7 innings of 3.35 ERA baseball, and though his extremely low strikeout totals effectively cap his upside (5.7 K/9 since ’14), Simon has also improved his other peripherals (walks, home runs, etc) since making the conversion. He was also very effective out of the ‘pen, and taking a four-year outlook reveals even better numbers : 358.3 innings of a 3.11 ERA.
C.C. Sabathia NYY (at DET) – Detroit is on an offensive tear lately, and they have a lineup stacked with right-handed pop that just abuses southpaws, a lesson that Jose Quintana learned the hard way yesterday. Throw in 20-mph winds that could throws off the flight path of batted balls, and you have a recipe for disaster. His velocity was reportedly back in the low-to-mid 90s during spring training, but in his first few starts the average pitch-speed on his fastball was under 90 mph. He has shown the ability to bury his slider with consistency this season, but the optimism that was fueled by spring is starting to be replaced by concern.
Jorge De La Rosa COL (vs. SD) – I know that he has been awesome at home, and that he has a repertoire that might just work at altitude (e.g. no breakers), but the Padres are just too stacked to attacked southpaws. It sends chills up my spine to start any pitcher in Colorado, and if I’m gonna play a hunch on his home/road splits then it will be with a different opponent.
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
John Danks CHW (vs. CLE)
Kyle Gibson MIN (at KC)
Asher Wojciechowski HOU (at SEA)
Kendall Graveman OAK (at LAA) – Low K expectancy plus a tough LAA offense has me staying away.
Odrisamer Despaigne SD (at COL)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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