Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Monday, April 27th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Editor’s Note: The Chicago at Baltimore game has been postponed due to safety concerns in the Baltimore area. Do not roster any players from the White Sox or Orioles tonight.
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vargas | KCR | CLE | 187 | 3.71 | 4.14 | 1.27 | 68.4% | 16.2% | 5.2% | 0.91 | 0.99 |
| Kluber | CLE | KCR | 235.2 | 2.44 | 2.61 | 1.09 | 57.1% | 28.3% | 5.4% | 0.53 | 1.57 |
| Sanchez | TOR | BOS | 33 | 1.09 | 2.53 | 0.70 | 22.3% | 7.4% | 0.27 | 3.38 | |
| Kelly | BOS | TOR | 96.1 | 4.20 | 4.29 | 1.35 | 40.0% | 15.9% | 10.1% | 0.75 | 2.31 |
| Noesi | CWS | BAL | 172.1 | 4.75 | 4.34 | 1.37 | 26.7% | 16.8% | 7.6% | 1.46 | 0.94 |
| Jimenez | BAL | CWS | 125.1 | 4.81 | 4.61 | 1.52 | 27.8% | 21.0% | 13.9% | 1.01 | 1.13 |
| Karns | TBR | NYY | 12 | 4.50 | 3.24 | 0.92 | 26.5% | 8.2% | 2.25 | 1.00 | |
| Warren | NYY | TBR | 78.2 | 2.97 | 3.01 | 1.11 | 23.5% | 7.4% | 0.46 | 1.46 | |
| Nelson | MIL | CIN | 69.1 | 4.93 | 3.76 | 1.46 | 18.3% | 6.1% | 0.78 | 1.52 | |
| Marquis | CIN | MIL | |||||||||
| Gee | NYM | MIA | 137.1 | 4.00 | 4.30 | 1.25 | 50.0% | 16.5% | 7.5% | 1.18 | 1.17 |
| Cosart | MIA | NYM | 180.1 | 3.69 | 4.36 | 1.36 | 31.6% | 15.0% | 9.5% | 0.45 | 2.05 |
| Fister | WAS | ATL | 164 | 2.41 | 3.93 | 1.08 | 58.3% | 14.8% | 3.6% | 0.99 | 1.43 |
| Stults | ATL | WAS | 176 | 4.30 | 4.33 | 1.38 | 26.3% | 14.6% | 5.9% | 1.33 | 1.22 |
| Walker | SEA | TEX | 38 | 2.61 | 3.97 | 1.29 | 21.3% | 11.3% | 0.47 | 1.78 | |
| Gallardo | TEX | SEA | 192.1 | 3.51 | 3.78 | 1.29 | 50.0% | 17.9% | 6.6% | 0.98 | 1.75 |
| Worley | PIT | CHC | 110.2 | 2.85 | 3.68 | 1.21 | 40.0% | 17.3% | 4.8% | 0.73 | 1.63 |
| Hammel | CHC | PIT | 176.1 | 3.47 | 3.50 | 1.12 | 47.4% | 22.1% | 6.2% | 1.17 | 1.03 |
| Price | DET | MIN | 248.1 | 3.26 | 2.72 | 1.08 | 52.4% | 26.9% | 3.8% | 0.91 | 1.08 |
| Milone | MIN | DET | 118 | 4.19 | 4.57 | 1.40 | 43.8% | 14.5% | 7.1% | 1.22 | 1.00 |
| Hamels | PHI | STL | 204.2 | 2.46 | 3.29 | 1.15 | 58.8% | 23.9% | 7.1% | 0.62 | 1.49 |
| Lackey | STL | PHI | 198 | 3.82 | 3.64 | 1.28 | 57.9% | 19.7% | 5.6% | 1.09 | 1.31 |
| Matzek | COL | ARI | 117.2 | 4.05 | 4.08 | 1.39 | 25.0% | 18.1% | 8.8% | 0.69 | 1.64 |
| Anderson | ARI | COL | 114.1 | 4.01 | 3.78 | 1.37 | 40.0% | 21.6% | 8.2% | 1.26 | 1.12 |
| McHugh | HOU | SDP | 154.2 | 2.73 | 3.14 | 1.02 | 42.9% | 25.4% | 6.6% | 0.76 | 1.25 |
| Shields | SDP | HOU | 227 | 3.21 | 3.59 | 1.18 | 42.9% | 19.2% | 4.7% | 0.91 | 1.33 |
| Lincecum | SFG | LAD | 155.2 | 4.74 | 3.95 | 1.39 | 40.0% | 19.9% | 9.4% | 1.10 | 1.60 |
| Anderson | LAD | SFG | 43.1 | 2.91 | 3.61 | 1.32 | 20.0% | 16.1% | 7.2% | 0.21 | 2.77 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
David Price DET (at MIN) – He was torched in his last outing, an 8-run drubbing at the hands of the Yankees that was a bit too reminiscent of the last time that he was faced with those pinstripes. Price will look to rebound in this start, and he has a nearly ideal opponent to begin fixing his stats. The Twins are not only one of the lowest scoring teams in baseball, but nearly the entire lineup is heavily prone to platoon splits and southpaws can cut right through middle-order hitters Joe Mauer, Kennys Vargas, and Oswaldo Arcia.
Cole Hamels PHI (at STL) – Hamels has had a very rough path through the start of the season, and though all of the trade-related talk has been focused on the possibility of injury and how that will destroy his trade stock, there’s also the risk of underperformance, a situation that will make it even tougher for Ruben Amaro, Jr, to get the return value he wants out of a deal. Hamels’ calling card throughout his 10-year career has been excellent command of a three-pitch arsenal, but he hasn’t been able to harness his stuff to the same degree in 2015. Consider that he has walked three or more players in three of his four starts this season, something that he has only done 17 times in 64 starts (26.5%) over the past two seasons. Most notable is the homers – Hamels has yielded an absurdly low .172 BABIP and an almost unfathomable seven homers of the 17 hits that he has allowed. Expect the magnet of regression to pull hard on both of those rates.
James Shields SD (vs. HOU) – Shields has a nearly ideal situation from a fantasy standpoint, playing one of the game’s weakest offenses (which happens to strike out a lot) in the best pitcher’s park in the majors. To top it off, the Astros will be without their regular DH given that the game is hosted in an NL park, providing another easy target for Shields. He consistently teeters on the Raise/Allin threshold, but the context of tonight’s battle is too good to pass.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Collin McHugh (at SD) – McHugh has spun quality starts in two of his three turns on the rubber, and the one game in which he fell just short involved 11 strikeouts across 5.7 innings, his greatest DFS output on the season. The K total has been otherwise unimpressive but that’s also what McHugh did last season, mixing in the high-strikeout performances with those where the other team was making contact. It’s a friendly venue and McHugh has the platoon advantage on all of the big bats in San Diego, so he’s a worthy gamble if you want to get a discount off of the All-in arms without compromising upside or drifting into the riffraff that follows.
John Lackey STL (vs. PHI) – Between last year’s trade deadline and the time of this writing, Lackey has made 16 starts for St. Louis (roughly half a season), with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. With ace Adam Wainwright out for the season with a busted Achilles, the Cardinals need the rest of the rotation to step up, but all indications are that Lackey is heading the other direction. Here to cure his woes is a Philadelphia club that has one of the worse lineups in recent memory and has scored a major-league low 49 runs this season.
Brett Anderson LAD (vs. SF) – The Giants are down to Buster Posey, Brandon Belt and a bunch of dice rolls that they hope will get hot. Posey rips lefties (Belt not so much), so Anderson should be able to live outside the zone to avoid the one guy in the lineup who can cause serious damage. Despite the Giants being defending World Champions, the fact that they’re just 8-11 and in last place in the NL West just further reinforces the concept that there’s a new sheriff in town, and that the Dodgers have more to worry about to the south than to the north.
Jimmy Nelson MIL (at CIN) – Nelson has been lights out so far this season, with a 1.35 ERA and 17-to-4 ratio of K’s to walks through three starts and 20 frames. He has battled rival offenses with two excellent starts against Pittsburgh and one against these Reds, but the Brewers’ offensive shortcomings have led to a lack of run support and a 1-2 record for Nelson. With an easy matchup against Jason Marquis, Nelson is in a good position to even that record and get a few extra points in DFS.
Doug Fister WAS (at ATL) – Atlanta has lost their glass slipper, and the lineup that was imposing for all of three days has once again turned into a pumpkin. Freddie Freeman is a solid play, but the rest of the hitters on the Atlanta team read like a Triple-A roster. Fister is not one for the strikeouts, but he generally keeps runs off the board and is facing an offense that will do some of the job for him.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vargas | 0.296 | 2.51 | 0.321 | 4.10 | 0.252 | 0.672 | 0.299 | 3.84 | 0.265 | 100.10 | 16.2% |
| Kluber | 0.304 | 2.53 | 0.246 | 2.34 | 0.261 | 0.682 | 0.316 | 2.35 | 0.232 | 102.94 | 28.3% |
| Sanchez | 0.223 | 1.54 | 0.149 | 0.84 | 0.245 | 0.682 | 0.157 | 2.80 | 0.126 | 19.38 | 22.3% |
| Kelly | 0.318 | 3.60 | 0.307 | 4.86 | 0.263 | 0.750 | 0.274 | 4.37 | 0.24 | 92.94 | 15.9% |
| Noesi | 0.320 | 4.50 | 0.367 | 5.12 | 0.257 | 0.732 | 0.290 | 4.83 | 0.267 | 83.42 | 16.8% |
| Jimenez | 0.354 | 5.43 | 0.308 | 4.04 | 0.251 | 0.705 | 0.289 | 4.67 | 0.239 | 92.24 | 21.0% |
| Karns | 0.240 | 0.677 | 0.148 | 5.72 | 0.163 | 102.50 | 26.5% | ||||
| Warren | 0.236 | 2.21 | 0.307 | 3.64 | 0.246 | 0.681 | 0.272 | 2.89 | 0.212 | 19.30 | 23.5% |
| Nelson | 0.353 | 4.84 | 0.349 | 5.03 | 0.238 | 0.657 | 0.344 | 3.78 | 0.289 | 79.21 | 18.3% |
| Marquis | 0.254 | 0.708 | |||||||||
| Gee | 0.321 | 4.85 | 0.315 | 3.15 | 0.247 | 0.690 | 0.268 | 4.52 | 0.245 | 96.36 | 16.5% |
| Cosart | 0.312 | 3.53 | 0.293 | 3.84 | 0.241 | 0.685 | 0.290 | 3.77 | 0.251 | 98.23 | 15.0% |
| Fister | 0.306 | 2.48 | 0.273 | 2.36 | 0.236 | 0.651 | 0.262 | 3.93 | 0.242 | 98.72 | 14.8% |
| Stults | 0.342 | 5.29 | 0.341 | 3.93 | 0.268 | 0.728 | 0.296 | 4.63 | 0.276 | 88.53 | 14.6% |
| Walker | 0.333 | 2.86 | 0.229 | 2.25 | 0.249 | 0.663 | 0.282 | 3.68 | 0.223 | 78.13 | 21.3% |
| Gallardo | 0.287 | 2.77 | 0.328 | 4.08 | 0.246 | 0.697 | 0.294 | 3.94 | 0.257 | 100.50 | 17.9% |
| Worley | 0.297 | 2.32 | 0.304 | 3.28 | 0.233 | 0.671 | 0.299 | 3.44 | 0.259 | 87.67 | 17.3% |
| Hammel | 0.305 | 3.09 | 0.297 | 3.78 | 0.260 | 0.746 | 0.272 | 3.92 | 0.232 | 93.20 | 22.1% |
| Price | 0.292 | 3.19 | 0.283 | 3.28 | 0.260 | 0.708 | 0.306 | 2.78 | 0.238 | 109.71 | 26.9% |
| Milone | 0.323 | 3.86 | 0.339 | 4.28 | 0.285 | 0.789 | 0.290 | 4.69 | 0.268 | 87.50 | 14.5% |
| Hamels | 0.291 | 2.18 | 0.285 | 2.53 | 0.254 | 0.718 | 0.295 | 3.07 | 0.231 | 104.53 | 23.9% |
| Lackey | 0.316 | 3.29 | 0.327 | 4.38 | 0.243 | 0.662 | 0.305 | 3.78 | 0.262 | 99.29 | 19.7% |
| Matzek | 0.199 | 2.27 | 0.372 | 4.71 | 0.243 | 0.672 | 0.312 | 3.78 | 0.263 | 88.20 | 18.1% |
| Anderson | 0.314 | 3.76 | 0.363 | 4.23 | 0.276 | 0.763 | 0.313 | 4.22 | 0.264 | 90.10 | 21.6% |
| McHugh | 0.272 | 2.58 | 0.252 | 2.95 | 0.229 | 0.640 | 0.259 | 3.11 | 0.205 | 99.44 | 25.4% |
| Shields | 0.309 | 3.02 | 0.310 | 3.43 | 0.233 | 0.673 | 0.295 | 3.59 | 0.253 | 106.82 | 19.2% |
| Lincecum | 0.335 | 4.81 | 0.346 | 4.68 | 0.271 | 0.746 | 0.299 | 4.31 | 0.255 | 80.76 | 19.9% |
| Anderson | 0.324 | 4.63 | 0.291 | 2.27 | 0.258 | 0.708 | 0.314 | 2.99 | 0.263 | 83.00 | 16.1% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Jason Hammel CHC (vs. PIT) – It appears that Hammel has rediscovered the excellent K and walk rates that he had left behind in Chicago last season upon getting traded, however the over-indulgence in fireworks and long home runs that personified his time in Oakland has also followed Hammel back into town.
Ubaldo Jimenez BAL (vs. CHW) – Ubaldo was certainly impressive in his first start of the season against these Jays, and he was blanking the Red Sox in Fenway into the fourth inning when he was ejected for throwing at Pablo Sandoval. The dream took a hit in his last outing, giving up four earned over six innings, though he was up against the same powerful Toronto club that (aside from Joey Bautista) was salivating at the opportunity to seek vengeance for the whooping in his first start of the year.
Taijuan Walker SEA (at TEX) – Walker is slowly working his way into respectability, climbing out of the clown car that was his first outing (9 ER over 3.3 innings), shaking off the five runs over four frames that he endured in the second outing, and striking out 8 while giving up just a single run in his third turn. That said, he still walked four batters in 5.3 innings, bringing his total to 10 free passes in 12.7 frames, and the lack of pitch command is putting him in poor counts and allowing opposing batters to hone in a single pitch speed and location.
Tim Lincecum SF (at LAD) – Lincecum is on one of those runs where things are clicking and the delivery is working, so ride it while you can. His high-octane motion has been more difficult to harness as he has aged, and though he still shows off spouts of greatness, he can also lose that mojo at a moment’s notice.
Yovani Gallardo TEX (vs. SEA)
Nate Karns TB (at NYY)
Vance Worley PIT (at CHC)
Dillon Gee NYM (at MIA)
Chase Anderson ARI (vs. COL)
Jarred Cosart MIA (vs. NYM)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Tommy Milone MIN (vs. DET) – as the Bruce Dickinson would say, “Run to the Hills!”
Eric Stults ATL (vs. WAS)
Tyler Matzek COL (at ARI)
Jason Marquis CIN (vs. MIL)
Hector Noesi CHW (at BAL)
Adam Warren NYY (vs. TB)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlander’s % Top stat would be 50%.
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