Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Monday, June 1st
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dickey | TOR | WAS | 265.2 | 4.10 | 4.32 | 1.25 | 47.6% | 17.4% | 8.2% | 1.19 | 1.14 |
| Zimmermann | WAS | TOR | 246.1 | 2.85 | 3.37 | 1.12 | 52.6% | 21.3% | 3.9% | 0.55 | 1.12 |
| Pelfrey | MIN | BOS | 62.2 | 5.03 | 5.58 | 1.61 | 9.3% | 11.3% | 1.15 | 1.70 | |
| Buchholz | BOS | MIN | 216 | 5.25 | 3.79 | 1.38 | 33.3% | 19.9% | 7.2% | 0.88 | 1.40 |
| Hammel | CHC | MIA | 222.2 | 3.40 | 3.46 | 1.10 | 47.4% | 22.2% | 5.6% | 1.13 | 1.05 |
| Urena | MIA | CHC | |||||||||
| Fiers | MIL | STL | 107.2 | 3.09 | 3.01 | 1.11 | 28.5% | 7.3% | 1.09 | 0.76 | |
| Garcia | STL | MIL | 43.2 | 4.12 | 2.85 | 1.05 | 28.6% | 22.0% | 4.0% | 1.24 | 2.19 |
| Jimenez | BAL | HOU | 166 | 4.23 | 4.32 | 1.39 | 27.8% | 21.6% | 12.5% | 0.92 | 1.32 |
| Oberholtzer | HOU | BAL | 146.2 | 4.36 | 4.26 | 1.40 | 41.7% | 15.2% | 4.7% | 0.74 | 0.89 |
| Kershaw | LAD | COL | 249.1 | 2.27 | 2.17 | 0.93 | 66.7% | 31.7% | 4.7% | 0.51 | 1.90 |
| Kendrick | COL | LAD | 246 | 5.01 | 4.55 | 1.39 | 30.0% | 13.7% | 6.8% | 1.28 | 1.28 |
| Wood | ATL | ARI | 218.2 | 3.00 | 3.42 | 1.23 | 58.3% | 22.5% | 6.8% | 0.74 | 1.44 |
| Bradley | ARI | ATL | 22 | 3.27 | 5.36 | 1.27 | 16.3% | 15.2% | 0.41 | 1.67 | |
| Colome | TBR | LAA | 43 | 4.19 | 4.28 | 1.28 | 16.2% | 6.7% | 1.05 | 1.10 | |
| Richards | LAA | TBR | 208 | 2.55 | 3.34 | 1.03 | 65.0% | 24.0% | 8.2% | 0.26 | 1.75 |
| deGrom | NYM | SDP | 188 | 2.82 | 3.33 | 1.18 | 50.0% | 24.4% | 7.3% | 0.62 | 1.38 |
| Cashner | SDP | NYM | 173.1 | 2.75 | 3.58 | 1.18 | 75.0% | 20.0% | 5.8% | 0.78 | 1.52 |
| Pineda | NYY | SEA | 128 | 2.46 | 3.01 | 0.94 | 75.0% | 22.8% | 2.0% | 0.56 | 1.21 |
| Hernandez | SEA | NYY | 290.2 | 2.17 | 2.55 | 0.92 | 81.0% | 26.9% | 5.2% | 0.68 | 2.20 |
| Cole | PIT | SFG | 186.2 | 3.33 | 3.13 | 1.19 | 28.6% | 24.8% | 6.9% | 0.63 | 1.71 |
| Vogelsong | SFG | PIT | 223.2 | 4.23 | 4.13 | 1.31 | 52.6% | 18.7% | 7.9% | 1.09 | 1.02 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Felix Hernandez SEA (vs. NYY) – The King has made a mockery of the American League thus far this season, with a 8-1 record, an AL-leading WHIP of 0.892, 71 strikeouts and just 15 walks in 70.7 innings of work. He has given up more than two runs just twice this season while generating 18 or more outs in all but a single turn, and though he failed to turn in a double-digit K day in May, he did punch out 8 hitters in three of his five starts.
Gerrit Cole PIT (at SF) – With every start, Cole becomes more entrenched in the class of All-in pitchers. Last week’s 7-strikeout effort with just two runs allowed against the Marlins marked the 8 time in 10 starts that he has thrown 6 or more innings, struck out 6 or more hitters, and allowed 2 or fewer runs in a ballgame. He has the upside for a monster game and the consistency to minimize any fear of blowup, as he still hasn’t allowed more than 3 runners to cross the plate in a single contest. With Kershaw having an off season, the road is clear for another pitcher to assume the throne as the NL’s top pitcher this year, and Cole is on the short list of candidates for those who could supplant the Kersh.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Clayton Kershaw LAD (at COL) – Not even the great Kershaw is immune to the thin air of Coors Field. The southpaw relies heavily on his lethal combination of sliders and curveballs to keep batters on their toes, yet his elite breakers are compromised at altitude, with a career ERA of 4.78 in Denver that includes his 5-run, 12-baserunner effort over 5.7 frames earlier this season. Kersh is a good play no matter where he’s pitching, but the combination of a strong slate and his prohibitive cost conspire to knock the reigning NL MVP into the second tier of pitching excellence today.
Michael Pineda NYY (at SEA) – This is Pineda’s first chance to punish the organization that traded him three years ago, and though he has easily outperformed trade counterpart Jesus Montero (despite Pineda having missed more than a year due to injury), one can expect that the right-hander will be salivating at the opportunity to beat the Mariners ace today. With a whopping 67 strikeouts and just 5 walks allowed, Pineda’s K-to-walk ratio of 13.4 is top in baseball among qualified starters. He faces a light-hitting Seattle club that has the second-fewest runs scored in the Junior Circuit, and though it feels that Nelson Cruz has hit for enough power to satisfy an entire lineup, the club’s run-scoring efforts have been undermined by the futility of just about everyone else on the roster, including Cap’n Consistency, Robinson Cano.
Jacob deGrom NYM (at SD) – deGrom was absolutely cruising through his last start, with just four baserunners (zero walks) and 9 strikeouts in his first seven innings of shutout baseball against the Phillies. He allowed a pair of singles to start the 8, after which he was pulled for a reliever and the carousel of baserunners started spinning dangerously; the wheels fell off the wagon, plating both of the inherited runners and when the smoke cleared deGrom was no longer eligible for the W. The Padres have a more imposing lineup than the Phils. But expect another high strikeout tally for the right-hander with a K-per-inning this season and 20 strikeouts in his last two starts.
Garrett Richards LAA (vs. TB) – Richards was on a roll up until mid-May, showing few ill effects of the brutal knee injury that prematurely ended his breakout campaign of 2014. He had a five-start run of 2 earnies or fewer heading into his May 22 contest against the Red Sox, but the struggling Bostonians lit Richards to the tune of 5 runs, and his next turn featured another five-spot (three earned) against the Pads. The Rays are especially weak against right-handed pitchers, and their patchwork lineup has featured a plethora of new names this season, a combination that should help Richards get back on track.
Andrew Cashner SD (vs. NYM) – His count of true outcomes looks a lot like that of Felix Hernandez, with a strikeout-per-inning and just 15 walks allowed, but the results on balls in play couldn’t be much more different. Cashner’s .316 BABIP and ridiculous count of unearned runs (compare his RA if 4.71 to his 3.00 ERA) underscore the pitfalls of leaning on the convention of earnies, especially in a world where inherited runners count the same whether they’re sitting on first base or third. The Cashner-deGrom matchup is a good one, and though the Mets’ right-hander gets the edge based on recent performance, it’s a close battle that could feature a lot of zeroes on the scoreboard.
Jordan Zimmermann WAS (vs. TOR) – Zimm is emerging from the funk that infected him early in the season, and though a modest K count has kept his owners largely out of the profit margins in DFS due to the emphasis on strikeouts in point-scoring, the rate of 6.1 K/9 obscures the fact that Zimm has registered a quality start in 9 of his 10 turns this season, including the last 8 starts in a row. He hasn’t yet reached peak form, but the stat-line of the past couple games points to a slow rebound for the right-hander, with a 1.35 ERA and 17 strikeouts in his last three starts combined, covering 20 innings of stable performance. The velocity that waned early in the season is at near-2014 levels, but his march toward greatness could hit a speed bump against the majors’ highest-scoring team.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dickey | 0.308 | 3.30 | 0.331 | 4.94 | 0.239 | 0.669 | 0.260 | 4.61 | 0.235 | 102.74 | 17.4% |
| Zimmermann | 0.304 | 3.20 | 0.261 | 2.42 | 0.235 | 0.718 | 0.307 | 2.78 | 0.249 | 90.95 | 21.3% |
| Pelfrey | 0.281 | 3.02 | 0.399 | 6.09 | 0.257 | 0.714 | 0.279 | 5.90 | 0.272 | 0.00 | 9.3% |
| Buchholz | 0.331 | 4.53 | 0.321 | 5.78 | 0.231 | 0.623 | 0.324 | 3.77 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 19.9% |
| Hammel | 0.298 | 2.61 | 0.282 | 3.89 | 0.261 | 0.676 | 0.272 | 3.81 | 0.232 | 93.30 | 22.2% |
| Urena | 0.276 | 6.75 | 0.573 | 12.27 | 0.242 | 0.694 | |||||
| Fiers | 0.300 | 3.02 | 0.292 | 3.24 | 0.279 | 0.762 | 0.280 | 3.31 | 0.217 | 84.71 | 28.5% |
| Garcia | 0.401 | 6.39 | 0.293 | 3.27 | 0.198 | 0.488 | 0.270 | 3.82 | 0.234 | 90.14 | 22.0% |
| Jimenez | 0.338 | 4.89 | 0.297 | 3.71 | 0.244 | 0.747 | 0.280 | 4.31 | 0.23 | 91.81 | 21.6% |
| Oberholtzer | 0.319 | 3.63 | 0.335 | 4.58 | 0.306 | 0.798 | 0.329 | 3.55 | 0.29 | 92.20 | 15.2% |
| Kershaw | 0.242 | 2.08 | 0.250 | 2.34 | 0.259 | 0.726 | 0.293 | 2.00 | 0.206 | 100.57 | 31.7% |
| Kendrick | 0.364 | 5.53 | 0.332 | 4.64 | 0.275 | 0.876 | 0.291 | 4.88 | 0.273 | 95.80 | 13.7% |
| Wood | 0.294 | 1.89 | 0.304 | 3.31 | 0.256 | 0.695 | 0.310 | 3.28 | 0.249 | 80.35 | 22.5% |
| Bradley | 0.259 | 2.41 | 0.402 | 9.75 | 0.255 | 0.707 | 0.213 | 4.42 | 0.182 | 77.80 | 16.3% |
| Colome | 0.324 | 4.60 | 0.273 | 2.63 | 0.227 | 0.624 | 0.288 | 4.21 | 0.259 | 75.89 | 16.2% |
| Richards | 0.234 | 2.74 | 0.268 | 2.73 | 0.235 | 0.684 | 0.256 | 2.70 | 0.194 | 101.75 | 24.0% |
| deGrom | 0.298 | 2.50 | 0.249 | 2.86 | 0.244 | 0.694 | 0.299 | 2.99 | 0.233 | 100.23 | 24.4% |
| Cashner | 0.320 | 3.40 | 0.265 | 2.09 | 0.235 | 0.653 | 0.285 | 3.38 | 0.24 | 96.74 | 20.0% |
| Pineda | 0.265 | 1.84 | 0.271 | 3.24 | 0.234 | 0.660 | 0.278 | 2.43 | 0.225 | 92.14 | 22.8% |
| Hernandez | 0.237 | 1.48 | 0.259 | 2.83 | 0.228 | 0.694 | 0.256 | 2.72 | 0.198 | 101.07 | 26.9% |
| Cole | 0.315 | 2.49 | 0.280 | 3.71 | 0.245 | 0.673 | 0.313 | 3.02 | 0.241 | 99.13 | 24.8% |
| Vogelsong | 0.365 | 4.77 | 0.294 | 3.48 | 0.234 | 0.642 | 0.289 | 4.24 | 0.251 | 92.75 | 18.7% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Jason Hammel CHC (at MIA) – Hammel has been extraordinarily consistent this season, walking just 7 batters through his 60.3 innings while compiling a sub-3.00 ERA and nearly a strikeout-per-inning. The K’s have been climbing, including a season-high 9 punchouts in his last start, and Hammel has the fortune of playing a Marlins club that has been struggling to put runs on the board this season.
Alex Wood ATL (at ARI) – The walks are under control (shocking when you the delivery), but the strikeouts just aren’t there this season, and he is facing an Arizona ballclub that gets the benefit of home turf to go with the high-powered offense of the Snakes. His FIP (3.17) is actually lower than his ERA (3.50) but anyone who is giving up more than 10 hits per nine innings has been walking a tightrope with a steep fall.
Ubaldo Jimenez BAL (at HOU) – Once the picture of inconsistency, Jimenez has been surprisingly stable in terms of his performance this season. The optimism inspired by his first start has obviously waned, and Jimenez has traded 21-out starts with abbreviated outings, but the matchup with Houston should do wonders for his strikeout total.
Archie Bradley ARI (vs. ATL) – The matchup spares Bradley, but his frequency of free passes and relatively high likelihood of blow-up make rostering him a risky proposition. With just 22 strikeouts against 19 walks this season, Bradley is a candidate to work out his issues in the minor leagues, and one wonders if today’s friendly matchup with the Braves will be a litmus test to determine if the kid is long for the majors this season.
Mike Fiers MIL (at STL) – The strikeout totals have been massive but so have the hits, a confusing combination that opens up the realm of possibilities for his pitching line. Facing a deep Cardinal lineup, Fiers could have a rough day if the Cardinals do their thing and string together a bunch of hits.
Clay Buchholz BOS (vs. MIN) – The Twins are on fire, catching everyone by surprise by leading the AL Central as the calendar flips to June, and though Minny is a superficially soft landing spot for Buchholz, their recent success strikes fear for a pitcher who is well known for his wild swings of performance.
Mike Pelfrey MIN (at BOS)
Alex Colome TB (at LAA)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Ryan Vogelsong SF (vs. PIT)
Jaime Garcia STL (vs. MIL)
R.A. Dickey TOR (at WAS)
Brett Oberholtzer HOU (vs. BAL)
Jose Urena MIA (vs. CHC)
Kyle Kendrick COL (vs. LAD)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window