Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, April 11th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly | BOS | NYY | 96.1 | 4.20 | 4.29 | 1.35 | 40.0% | 15.9% | 10.1% | 0.75 | 2.31 |
| Warren | NYY | BOS | 78.2 | 2.97 | 3.01 | 1.11 | 23.5% | 7.4% | 0.46 | 1.46 | |
| Wacha | STL | CIN | 107 | 3.20 | 3.74 | 1.20 | 53.3% | 21.0% | 7.4% | 0.50 | 1.15 |
| Cueto | CIN | STL | 243.2 | 2.25 | 3.15 | 0.96 | 76.2% | 25.2% | 6.8% | 0.81 | 1.34 |
| Pelfrey | MIN | CWS | 23.2 | 7.99 | 6.45 | 1.99 | 8.4% | 15.1% | 1.90 | 1.15 | |
| Samardzija | CWS | MIN | 219.2 | 2.99 | 3.06 | 1.07 | 60.0% | 23.0% | 4.9% | 0.82 | 1.64 |
| Happ | SEA | OAK | 158 | 4.22 | 3.94 | 1.34 | 30.8% | 19.8% | 7.6% | 1.25 | 1.03 |
| Gray | OAK | SEA | 219 | 3.08 | 3.56 | 1.19 | 60.0% | 20.4% | 8.2% | 0.62 | 2.19 |
| Archer | TBR | MIA | 194.2 | 3.33 | 3.80 | 1.28 | 55.0% | 21.1% | 8.8% | 0.55 | 1.50 |
| Cosart | MIA | TBR | 180.1 | 3.69 | 4.36 | 1.36 | 31.6% | 15.0% | 9.5% | 0.45 | 2.05 |
| Price | DET | CLE | 248.1 | 3.26 | 2.72 | 1.08 | 52.4% | 26.9% | 3.8% | 0.91 | 1.08 |
| Kluber | CLE | DET | 235.2 | 2.44 | 2.61 | 1.09 | 57.1% | 28.3% | 5.4% | 0.53 | 1.57 |
| Sanchez | TOR | BAL | 33 | 1.09 | 2.53 | 0.70 | 22.3% | 7.4% | 0.27 | 3.38 | |
| Jimenez | BAL | TOR | 125.1 | 4.81 | 4.61 | 1.52 | 27.8% | 21.0% | 13.9% | 1.01 | 1.13 |
| Fister | WAS | PHI | 164 | 2.41 | 3.93 | 1.08 | 58.3% | 14.8% | 3.6% | 0.99 | 1.43 |
| Hamels | PHI | WAS | 204.2 | 2.46 | 3.29 | 1.15 | 58.8% | 23.9% | 7.1% | 0.62 | 1.49 |
| Worley | PIT | MIL | 110.2 | 2.85 | 3.68 | 1.21 | 40.0% | 17.3% | 4.8% | 0.73 | 1.63 |
| Nelson | MIL | PIT | 69.1 | 4.93 | 3.76 | 1.46 | 18.3% | 6.1% | 0.78 | 1.52 | |
| Gee | NYM | ATL | 137.1 | 4.00 | 4.30 | 1.25 | 50.0% | 16.5% | 7.5% | 1.18 | 1.17 |
| Teheran | ATL | NYM | 221 | 2.89 | 3.68 | 1.08 | 70.0% | 21.0% | 5.8% | 0.90 | 0.79 |
| Hernandez | HOU | TEX | 164.2 | 4.10 | 4.67 | 1.39 | 35.3% | 14.5% | 10.1% | 1.04 | 1.66 |
| Gallardo | TEX | HOU | 192.1 | 3.51 | 3.78 | 1.29 | 50.0% | 17.9% | 6.6% | 0.98 | 1.75 |
| Hammel | CHC | COL | 176.1 | 3.47 | 3.50 | 1.12 | 47.4% | 22.1% | 6.2% | 1.17 | 1.03 |
| Kendrick | COL | CHC | 199 | 4.61 | 4.45 | 1.36 | 30.0% | 14.0% | 6.6% | 1.13 | 1.29 |
| Kershaw | LAD | ARI | 198.1 | 1.77 | 2.09 | 0.86 | 66.7% | 31.9% | 4.1% | 0.41 | 1.77 |
| Bradley | ARI | LAD | |||||||||
| Bumgarner | SFG | SDP | 217.1 | 2.98 | 2.98 | 1.09 | 47.6% | 25.1% | 4.9% | 0.87 | 1.24 |
| Shields | SDP | SFG | 227 | 3.21 | 3.59 | 1.18 | 42.9% | 19.2% | 4.7% | 0.91 | 1.33 |
| Guthrie | KCR | LAA | 202.2 | 4.13 | 4.34 | 1.30 | 42.1% | 14.4% | 5.7% | 1.02 | 1.19 |
| Weaver | LAA | KCR | 213.1 | 3.59 | 4.18 | 1.21 | 52.4% | 19.0% | 7.3% | 1.14 | 0.69 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Clayton Kershaw LAD (at ARI) – He’s matchup proof, and Kersh receives an automatic seat at the head of the table whenever he pitches – even the King gives up his throne. Thought experiment: Would you rather have Clayton Kershaw pitching in Colorado, or any other pitcher in any other park?
Madison Bumgarner SF (at SD) – The Padres are structured for exactly this scenario, having spent the off-season collecting right-handed power bats to contend with the Bumgarner’s and Kershaw’s of the NL West. The righty quartet of Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Wil Myers, and Derek Norris all have heavy platoon splits, and Bummer has allowed right-handers an OPS that is 114 points higher than lefties. I’d go all-in anyway, because he’s that good.
Cole Hamels PHI (vs. WAS) – He’s a rock. The walk rate has only been higher than 6.0% twice in the past nine seasons, topping out at 7.1% in a single year (MLB average = 8.3%), and he’s struck out more than 22% of the batters that he’s faced in each of the last five seasons. Hamels also benefits from the context, facing an injury-riddled Nats squad while carrying the lefty advantage to convert Bryce “He-Man” Harper into Mini-He.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Julio Teheran ATL (vs. NYM) – Teheran’s stock has taken a bit of a hit through no fault of his own, due to the perception that his weak supporting cast will stand in the way of his Wins count. He is coming off of a two-year run with 406.7 innings of 3.03 ERA baseball, with a 1.12 WHIP and 356 strikeouts (7.9 K/9) against 96 walks (2.1 BB/9). He only won 14 games in each of the last two years, and that was before the purge, but what is the expectation now? 11 wins? The W stat is too unpredictable for me to make a good guess on the a season total, and it’s nearly impossible to call whether the offense will show up on a game-by-game basis.
James Shields SD (vs. SF) – The stars are aligned for Shields to put up big numbers in his home debut for the new ballclub. A solid pitcher in a great park versus a lineup that has been decimated by injuries? Yes, please.
Jered Weaver LAA (vs. KC) – Flyball pitcher, meet groundball club. Weaver had the third-lowest rate of groundballs/flyballs in the American League last year (0.50), whereas the Royals had the second-highest team rate in the AL (0.91). Expect a low K count from Weaver against the contact-laden lineup of KC, regardless of what things look like on balls in play, but he is a good bet to keep runs off the scoreboard.
Archie Bradley ARI (vs. LAD) – I’m excited to watch the rookie take the mound, and he makes for an intriguing upside play in all formats, albeit one that carries considerable risk. His command has been erratic in the minors and his mechanics have been inconsistent, but he impressed the Arizona brass enough to break camp with the big club. Rostering Bradley is not for the faint of heart or weak of stomach, particularly against a menacing Dodger lineup, but he’s a solid longshot play in larger DFS tournaments. You have to feel for the kid, making his big-league debut with no less than the best pitcher of this generation sharing the hill as his adversary. I don’t think that counts as rookie hazing so much as cruel and unusual punishment.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly | 0.318 | 3.60 | 0.307 | 4.86 | 0.240 | 0.677 | 0.274 | 4.37 | 0.24 | 92.94 | 15.9% |
| Warren | 0.236 | 2.21 | 0.307 | 3.64 | 0.245 | 0.682 | 0.272 | 2.89 | 0.212 | 19.30 | 23.5% |
| Wacha | 0.266 | 2.96 | 0.306 | 3.42 | 0.238 | 0.657 | 0.288 | 3.17 | 0.232 | 89.16 | 21.0% |
| Cueto | 0.257 | 2.05 | 0.261 | 2.44 | 0.252 | 0.679 | 0.238 | 3.30 | 0.192 | 107.62 | 25.2% |
| Pelfrey | 0.294 | 4.41 | 0.251 | 0.705 | 0.286 | 7.57 | 0.293 | 0.00 | 8.4% | ||
| Samardzija | 0.292 | 2.58 | 0.279 | 3.34 | 0.251 | 0.715 | 0.283 | 3.20 | 0.231 | 101.18 | 23.0% |
| Happ | 0.379 | 5.17 | 0.327 | 3.98 | 0.239 | 0.681 | 0.297 | 4.27 | 0.258 | 90.33 | 19.8% |
| Gray | 0.289 | 2.81 | 0.277 | 3.40 | 0.246 | 0.697 | 0.277 | 3.46 | 0.229 | 99.85 | 20.4% |
| Archer | 0.283 | 2.67 | 0.307 | 4.21 | 0.247 | 0.690 | 0.296 | 3.39 | 0.239 | 98.75 | 21.1% |
| Cosart | 0.312 | 3.53 | 0.293 | 3.84 | 0.246 | 0.681 | 0.290 | 3.77 | 0.251 | 98.23 | 15.0% |
| Price | 0.292 | 3.19 | 0.283 | 3.28 | 0.252 | 0.672 | 0.306 | 2.78 | 0.238 | 109.71 | 26.9% |
| Kluber | 0.304 | 2.53 | 0.246 | 2.34 | 0.274 | 0.745 | 0.316 | 2.35 | 0.232 | 102.94 | 28.3% |
| Sanchez | 0.223 | 1.54 | 0.149 | 0.84 | 0.257 | 0.732 | 0.157 | 2.80 | 0.126 | 19.38 | 22.3% |
| Jimenez | 0.354 | 5.43 | 0.308 | 4.04 | 0.263 | 0.750 | 0.289 | 4.67 | 0.239 | 92.24 | 21.0% |
| Fister | 0.306 | 2.48 | 0.273 | 2.36 | 0.243 | 0.662 | 0.262 | 3.93 | 0.242 | 98.72 | 14.8% |
| Hamels | 0.291 | 2.18 | 0.285 | 2.53 | 0.268 | 0.728 | 0.295 | 3.07 | 0.231 | 104.53 | 23.9% |
| Worley | 0.297 | 2.32 | 0.304 | 3.28 | 0.254 | 0.708 | 0.299 | 3.44 | 0.259 | 87.67 | 17.3% |
| Nelson | 0.353 | 4.84 | 0.349 | 5.03 | 0.260 | 0.746 | 0.344 | 3.78 | 0.289 | 79.21 | 18.3% |
| Gee | 0.321 | 4.85 | 0.315 | 3.15 | 0.236 | 0.651 | 0.268 | 4.52 | 0.245 | 96.36 | 16.5% |
| Teheran | 0.301 | 3.31 | 0.262 | 2.46 | 0.241 | 0.685 | 0.267 | 3.49 | 0.227 | 99.12 | 21.0% |
| Hernandez | 0.333 | 3.94 | 0.323 | 4.23 | 0.249 | 0.663 | 0.266 | 4.85 | 0.244 | 85.53 | 14.5% |
| Gallardo | 0.287 | 2.77 | 0.328 | 4.08 | 0.233 | 0.673 | 0.294 | 3.94 | 0.257 | 100.50 | 17.9% |
| Hammel | 0.305 | 3.09 | 0.297 | 3.78 | 0.276 | 0.763 | 0.272 | 3.92 | 0.232 | 93.20 | 22.1% |
| Kendrick | 0.360 | 5.34 | 0.321 | 4.08 | 0.233 | 0.671 | 0.290 | 4.57 | 0.269 | 96.94 | 14.0% |
| Kershaw | 0.215 | 0.96 | 0.237 | 1.96 | 0.243 | 0.672 | 0.278 | 1.81 | 0.194 | 100.81 | 31.9% |
| Bradley | 0.271 | 0.746 | |||||||||
| Bumgarner | 0.239 | 1.84 | 0.301 | 3.31 | 0.220 | 0.616 | 0.296 | 3.05 | 0.235 | 102.18 | 25.1% |
| Shields | 0.309 | 3.02 | 0.310 | 3.43 | 0.253 | 0.695 | 0.295 | 3.59 | 0.253 | 106.82 | 19.2% |
| Guthrie | 0.364 | 5.13 | 0.270 | 2.97 | 0.254 | 0.716 | 0.294 | 4.32 | 0.268 | 101.09 | 14.4% |
| Weaver | 0.321 | 3.79 | 0.277 | 3.27 | 0.261 | 0.682 | 0.267 | 4.19 | 0.236 | 98.59 | 19.0% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Doug Fister WAS (at PHI) – The Nationals should be active on defense today. Fister’s 1.32 BB/9 was the second-lowest mark in the NL among qualified starters (narrowly trailing teammate Jordan Zimmermann’s 1.31 BB/9), while his rate of 5.38 K/9 was the second-lowest in the league. Fister typically keeps the ball in the yard, as well, so those in search of the Three True Outcomes should look elsewhere.
Aaron Sanchez TOR (at BAL) – Sanchez could be on a short leash today, following a transition out of the bullpen and into the starting rotation, a move that was made necessary by the injury to Marcus Stroman. Sanchez has been working hard on his mechanics in the last few years, emphasizing balance and timing, and it will be interesting to see if he makes further physical adjustments when tasked with a higher pitch count. The main focus will be on his repertoire, as Sanchez reared back and fired high-90s fastballs at a 90% frequency out of the bullpen, spotting the occasional curve, but he will need much more variation when pitching from the windup and facing hitters multiple times, especially if his velocity is compromised, as expected.
Yovani Gallardo TEX (vs. HOU) – He was roughed up a bit by the A’s on Opening Day, but Gallardo did manage a half-dozen strikeouts through four innings of work and he is facing a Houston club that is known for turning pumpkins into stagecoaches.
Jimmy Nelson MIL (vs. PIT) – Nelson is more volatile than his walk rate suggests and he is facing a Pittsburgh team that is full of batters that punish mistakes, so there is definite blow-up potential here. There is also strikeout potential, and players who are not risk-averse might see this as a good opportunity to zig while others zag toward higher-priced arms.
Dillon Gee NYM (at ATL) – Gee receives the Atlanta boost under the usual expectation that the Braves will struggle to score runs, and his avoidance of the free pass helps to buffer the WHIP expectations for today, but he has a low ceiling on his projected performance today.
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Ubaldo Jimenez BAL (vs. TOR) – Ubaldo is a mess of inconsistency, and though he can be entertaining to watch as he turns the mound into a mine field of landing spots, those who are stuck with Jimenez on an active roster are advised to look away.
Vance Worley PIT (at MIL)
Roberto Hernandez HOU (at TEX)
Jeremy Guthrie KC (at LAA)
Jason Hammel CHC (at COL) – Hammel is good but he’s not Coors-proof.
Kyle Kendrick COL (vs. CHC) – The ultimate stacking option, setting the tone for a summer full of fireworks when Kendrick pitches at home in Denver.
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlander’s % Top stat would be 50%.
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