Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, April 18
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harang | PHI | WAS | 204.1 | 3.57 | 4.18 | 1.40 | 75.0% | 18.4% | 8.1% | 0.66 | 1.04 |
| Zimmermann | WAS | PHI | 199.2 | 2.66 | 3.15 | 1.07 | 52.6% | 22.8% | 3.6% | 0.59 | 1.12 |
| Wood | ATL | TOR | 171.2 | 2.78 | 3.16 | 1.14 | 58.3% | 24.5% | 6.5% | 0.84 | 1.33 |
| Dickey | TOR | ATL | 215.2 | 3.71 | 4.08 | 1.23 | 47.6% | 18.9% | 8.1% | 1.09 | 1.12 |
| Salazar | CLE | MIN | 110 | 4.25 | 3.33 | 1.38 | 12.5% | 25.3% | 7.4% | 1.06 | 0.82 |
| Hughes | MIN | CLE | 209.2 | 3.52 | 3.17 | 1.13 | 45.0% | 21.8% | 1.9% | 0.69 | 0.91 |
| Bailey | CIN | STL | 145.2 | 3.71 | 3.60 | 1.23 | 31.6% | 20.5% | 7.5% | 0.99 | 1.75 |
| Martinez | STL | CIN | 89.1 | 4.03 | 3.45 | 1.41 | 21.8% | 9.3% | 0.40 | 1.88 | |
| Ross | SDP | CHC | 195.2 | 2.81 | 3.21 | 1.21 | 66.7% | 24.0% | 8.9% | 0.60 | 2.58 |
| Hendricks | CHC | SDP | 80.1 | 2.46 | 4.06 | 1.08 | 14.6% | 4.7% | 0.45 | 1.46 | |
| Tillman | BAL | BOS | 207.1 | 3.34 | 4.26 | 1.23 | 42.9% | 17.2% | 7.6% | 0.91 | 1.03 |
| Buchholz | BOS | BAL | 170.1 | 5.34 | 4.02 | 1.39 | 33.3% | 17.9% | 7.3% | 0.90 | 1.36 |
| Lohse | MIL | PIT | 198.1 | 3.54 | 4.04 | 1.15 | 50.0% | 17.3% | 5.5% | 1.00 | 0.99 |
| Worley | PIT | MIL | 110.2 | 2.85 | 3.68 | 1.21 | 40.0% | 17.3% | 4.8% | 0.73 | 1.63 |
| Wilson | LAA | HOU | 175.2 | 4.51 | 4.23 | 1.45 | 42.1% | 19.8% | 11.2% | 0.87 | 1.62 |
| Keuchel | HOU | LAA | 200 | 2.93 | 3.11 | 1.18 | 50.0% | 18.1% | 5.9% | 0.50 | 3.30 |
| Hahn | OAK | KCR | 73.1 | 3.07 | 3.73 | 1.21 | 57.1% | 22.9% | 10.5% | 0.49 | 1.83 |
| Ventura | KCR | OAK | 183 | 3.20 | 3.87 | 1.30 | 44.4% | 20.3% | 8.8% | 0.69 | 1.53 |
| Latos | MIA | NYM | 102.1 | 3.25 | 4.08 | 1.15 | 66.7% | 17.6% | 6.2% | 0.79 | 0.94 |
| Degrom | NYM | MIA | 140.1 | 2.69 | 3.19 | 1.14 | 50.0% | 25.5% | 7.6% | 0.45 | 1.44 |
| Tanaka | NYY | TBR | 136.1 | 2.77 | 2.67 | 1.06 | 66.7% | 26.0% | 3.9% | 0.99 | 1.61 |
| Odorizzi | TBR | NYY | 168 | 4.13 | 3.66 | 1.28 | 36.8% | 24.2% | 8.2% | 1.07 | 0.61 |
| De La Rosa | ARI | SFG | 101.2 | 4.43 | 4.21 | 1.49 | 57.1% | 16.8% | 7.9% | 1.06 | 1.42 |
| Heston | SFG | ARI | |||||||||
| Lewis | TEX | SEA | 170.1 | 5.18 | 4.22 | 1.52 | 11.8% | 17.5% | 6.3% | 1.32 | 0.75 |
| Hernandez | SEA | TEX | 236 | 2.14 | 2.50 | 0.92 | 81.0% | 27.2% | 5.0% | 0.61 | 2.14 |
| Lyles | COL | LAD | 126.2 | 4.33 | 4.10 | 1.37 | 58.3% | 16.5% | 8.4% | 0.85 | 2.01 |
| Greinke | LAD | COL | 202.1 | 2.71 | 2.87 | 1.15 | 50.0% | 25.2% | 5.2% | 0.85 | 1.70 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Felix Hernandez SEA (vs. TEX) – King Felix has pitched more innings against the division-rival Rangers (269.0) than all but one other team in his career, but his 4.01 ERA over those innings is the second-highest mark that Hernandez has allowed to any club (with more than 10 innings pitched). I thought that was a cool fact, but it does nothing to change the recommendation – beyond the obvious caveats of 11 years of roster changes, Felix is the best pitcher on tonight’s slate, bar none. If you’re looking for a friendlier split, go with this one: he has a 3.05 ERA across 1053 career innings in Safeco, with a 1.14 WHIP and 8.8 K’s per nine innings.
Zack Greinke LAD (vs. COL) – Greinke is working his way through the NL West, peddling his wares as “the unstoppable pitcher” and dangling terms like “opt out clause” and “free agency.” He already gave his presentation to the clubs from San Francisco and Arizona, who were amazed to witness a collective 13.3 innings of baseball with just one run allowed, 11 strikeouts, and a single walk. Next stop: the Rockies, a team that whiffed 12 times against last night’s starter Clayton Kershaw, but has had no problem hitting away from Coors this season, including 8 homers and an average of 4.7 runs per game in 7 contests on the road.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Yordano Ventura KC (vs. OAK) – Ventura has had a pair of solid starts against tough offenses, allowing three earned runs across 11.7 innings against the White Sox and Angels. His pitch count is on the rise and should approach triple digits today as he tries to quiet an Oakland offense that has been rolling. He’s a tick behind last year’s velocity through two starts this season, but a gradual increase from April into summer is to be expected and he is still averaging a ridiculous 97.0 mph on the four-seamer.
Jake Odorizzi TB (vs. NYY) – The Tampa rotation is depleted, but with Odorizzi and Chris Archer they have a pair of pitchers who have really stepped up to fill the void left by M.I.A. hurlers Alex Cobb and Drew Smyly. You wouldn’t think it when looking at the radar gun, but Odorizzi is a strikeout machine that could put up a big point total in DFS today if he can lay the old-man power to rest.
Jacob deGrom NYM (vs. MIA) – deGrom’s ascension to the hall of studs last season was unexpected and often criticized, but the early returns on 2015 indicate that he has maintained the improvements of last season and is poised to justify his stat-sheet this season. He was lobbed a softball with facing Philly in his last start and an injury-ravaged Washington club in his first turn, so Miami will be his best lineup test of the season.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harang | 0.330 | 2.86 | 0.312 | 4.17 | 0.318 | 3.57 | 0.267 | 102.85 | 18.4% | ||
| Zimmermann | 0.290 | 2.92 | 0.269 | 2.41 | 0.243 | 0.662 | 0.302 | 2.68 | 0.242 | 91.38 | 22.8% |
| Wood | 0.299 | 2.09 | 0.288 | 3.01 | 0.247 | 0.699 | 0.295 | 3.25 | 0.235 | 76.66 | 24.5% |
| Dickey | 0.300 | 2.97 | 0.324 | 4.32 | 0.236 | 0.651 | 0.263 | 4.32 | 0.231 | 103.32 | 18.9% |
| Salazar | 0.309 | 3.14 | 0.342 | 4.97 | 0.251 | 0.715 | 0.343 | 3.52 | 0.268 | 93.45 | 25.3% |
| Hughes | 0.272 | 2.71 | 0.321 | 4.47 | 0.254 | 0.722 | 0.324 | 2.65 | 0.265 | 95.19 | 21.8% |
| Bailey | 0.334 | 3.99 | 0.296 | 3.52 | 0.252 | 0.679 | 0.286 | 3.93 | 0.243 | 99.04 | 20.5% |
| Martinez | 0.363 | 5.65 | 0.275 | 2.91 | 0.236 | 0.675 | 0.333 | 3.18 | 0.26 | 24.19 | 21.8% |
| Ross | 0.289 | 2.92 | 0.286 | 2.70 | 0.233 | 0.671 | 0.291 | 3.24 | 0.226 | 100.61 | 24.0% |
| Hendricks | 0.261 | 2.41 | 0.282 | 2.51 | 0.229 | 0.640 | 0.271 | 3.32 | 0.238 | 88.92 | 14.6% |
| Tillman | 0.299 | 3.04 | 0.299 | 3.71 | 0.245 | 0.682 | 0.267 | 4.01 | 0.236 | 100.32 | 17.2% |
| Buchholz | 0.351 | 5.12 | 0.308 | 5.62 | 0.257 | 0.732 | 0.315 | 4.01 | 0.27 | 97.89 | 17.9% |
| Lohse | 0.319 | 4.08 | 0.286 | 3.08 | 0.260 | 0.746 | 0.268 | 3.95 | 0.24 | 96.84 | 17.3% |
| Worley | 0.297 | 2.32 | 0.304 | 3.28 | 0.254 | 0.708 | 0.299 | 3.44 | 0.259 | 87.67 | 17.3% |
| Wilson | 0.266 | 3.99 | 0.345 | 4.70 | 0.267 | 0.747 | 0.306 | 4.31 | 0.254 | 100.26 | 19.8% |
| Keuchel | 0.268 | 2.61 | 0.299 | 3.03 | 0.273 | 0.763 | 0.295 | 3.21 | 0.248 | 104.14 | 18.1% |
| Hahn | 0.291 | 4.14 | 0.278 | 1.98 | 0.261 | 0.682 | 0.270 | 3.40 | 0.211 | 84.29 | 22.9% |
| Ventura | 0.288 | 2.68 | 0.316 | 3.93 | 0.246 | 0.709 | 0.288 | 3.60 | 0.237 | 96.29 | 20.3% |
| Latos | 0.271 | 2.57 | 0.306 | 3.88 | 0.241 | 0.685 | 0.269 | 3.65 | 0.235 | 95.81 | 17.6% |
| Degrom | 0.289 | 2.34 | 0.264 | 2.94 | 0.247 | 0.690 | 0.297 | 2.67 | 0.225 | 101.64 | 25.5% |
| Tanaka | 0.280 | 2.41 | 0.302 | 3.21 | 0.246 | 0.681 | 0.299 | 3.04 | 0.238 | 100.45 | 26.0% |
| Odorizzi | 0.294 | 4.15 | 0.324 | 4.09 | 0.240 | 0.677 | 0.295 | 3.75 | 0.238 | 97.68 | 24.2% |
| De La Rosa | 0.364 | 4.25 | 0.348 | 4.62 | 0.253 | 0.695 | 0.327 | 4.30 | 0.287 | 92.16 | 16.8% |
| Heston | 0.250 | 0.679 | |||||||||
| Lewis | 0.373 | 4.68 | 0.355 | 5.77 | 0.246 | 0.697 | 0.339 | 4.46 | 0.299 | 96.62 | 17.5% |
| Hernandez | 0.233 | 1.20 | 0.259 | 3.39 | 0.249 | 0.663 | 0.258 | 2.56 | 0.197 | 101.00 | 27.2% |
| Lyles | 0.372 | 3.39 | 0.290 | 5.21 | 0.271 | 0.746 | 0.295 | 4.22 | 0.258 | 95.45 | 16.5% |
| Greinke | 0.277 | 2.06 | 0.304 | 3.30 | 0.276 | 0.763 | 0.311 | 2.97 | 0.245 | 100.31 | 25.2% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Masahiro Tanaka NYY (at TB) – Last season’s prowess is still raising the price-point on Tanaka in some places, but the evidence from his first two starts paints a bleak picture. He has piled up all of the counting stats in his first two starts – strikeouts, walks, runs, hits, you name it. The right-hander has looked like a shell of the workhorse who was as automatic as they get when it came to game-to-game performance last year. The velocity is down, the pitch command is a wreck, and he has upped the frequency of his secondaries to cover for the fading fastball. On the other side of the coin, the splitter is still devastating and Tanaka has faced two of the game’s best offenses (Boston and Toronto) in his first two turns of the rotation. He is going up against an easier lineup tonight in Tampa, so there is a good shot that he has somewhat of a bounce back, but don’t expect an appearance from the Tanaka of old.
Jesse Hahn OAK (at KC) – Hahn has only struck out five batters through his first dozen innings this season, and facing a non-whiffing KC club will likely increase the spread between Hahn’s K count and his innings total. That said, this is a pitcher who struck out nearly a batter per inning in the minor leagues, and I could easily see him being underrated for a couple of weeks as gamers start to anchor on the performance of the first few weeks. The key here is that he keeps the ball on the ground, has surrendered just 0.5 HR/9 in the majors and just two bombs across 163.3 career innings in the minors – meanwhile the Royals do not have a powerful lineup.
Mat Latos MIA (at NYM) – It might be late May before Latos can heal the damage to his ERA created by his first start of the year, even if he overcame the mental anguish the next day. His second start was less than encouraging, taking 80 pitches to get just 12 outs against the Braves, and the fact that he has given up nine earned runs in less than five innings in two starts against the light-hitting Braves effectively cools the optimism that he can get back on track in a hurry.
Dallas Keuchel HOU (vs. LAA) – With spotty peripherals and modest stuff, the feeling in these parts was that Keuchel would experience a rude awakening in 2015, but so far he has hit the snooze button and continued the fantasy dream of last season. He only has seven strikeouts and six walks through 14 innings, so the peripherals are still weak support for the 1.29 ERA, and the Angels could sound the alarm of reality today in Houston.
Rubby De La Rosa ARI (vs. SF) – De La Rosa has great stuff but lacks command of his arsenal, a volatile combination that can be surprisingly rewarding or frustratingly taxing, both in the span of a single ballgame. He is facing a weak lineup from the Pence-less Giants, though the return of Brandon Belt does add a modicum of sock to an otherwise cold lineup.
Kyle Lohse MIL (at PIT) – Lohse has been the model of consistency for years, an unsexy pick for DFS who nonetheless provided safe numbers for reasonable prices. Unfortunately, he forgot to buckle his safety belt for 2015. He gave up eight earned runs in his first start of the year, versus Colorado but not in Denver, and the Pirates roughed him up for eight hits and four runs in his last start. Perhaps he studied the game film and will make some adjustments, but Lohse is the one who will need to make corrections if he is to avoid another drubbing at the hands of Pittsburgh.
C.J. Wilson LAA (at HOU) – In his first two starts, Wilson tossed a gem against the Mariners then got pummeled by the Royals, so it sounds like he’s already in mid-season form. Wilson is a roll of the dice against a Houston ballclub that bodes well for his strikeout total but whose aggressive style can lead to some crooked numbers on the scoreboard.
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Jordan Lyles COL (at LAD)
Jeff Locke PIT (vs. MIL)
Colby Lewis TEX (at SEA)
Chris Heston SF (at ARI) – I just keep wanting to type “Charlton” when I enter his name. Maybe we can compromise and just call him “Charlie” – you cool with that, Charlie?
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlander’s % Top stat would be 50%.
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