Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, April 25th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bauer | CLE | DET | 153 | 4.18 | 3.95 | 1.38 | 38.5% | 21.6% | 9.1% | 0.94 | 0.85 |
| Simon | DET | CLE | 196.1 | 3.44 | 4.17 | 1.21 | 63.2% | 15.5% | 6.9% | 1.01 | 1.57 |
| Arrieta | CHC | CIN | 156.2 | 2.53 | 2.83 | 0.99 | 50.0% | 27.2% | 6.7% | 0.29 | 1.73 |
| Desclafani | CIN | CHC | 33 | 6.27 | 3.70 | 1.36 | 20.0% | 17.8% | 3.4% | 1.09 | 0.88 |
| Volquez | KCR | CWS | 192.2 | 3.04 | 4.20 | 1.23 | 50.0% | 17.3% | 8.8% | 0.79 | 1.53 |
| Danks | CWS | KCR | 193.2 | 4.74 | 4.64 | 1.44 | 50.0% | 15.1% | 8.7% | 1.16 | 1.10 |
| Feldman | HOU | OAK | 180.1 | 3.74 | 4.33 | 1.30 | 47.1% | 14.0% | 6.5% | 0.80 | 1.53 |
| Graveman | OAK | HOU | |||||||||
| Harvey | NYM | NYY | |||||||||
| Sabathia | NYY | NYM | 46 | 5.28 | 3.07 | 1.48 | 25.0% | 23.0% | 4.8% | 1.96 | 1.63 |
| Strasburg | WAS | MIA | 215 | 3.14 | 2.64 | 1.12 | 52.4% | 27.9% | 5.0% | 0.96 | 1.46 |
| Koehler | MIA | WAS | 191.1 | 3.81 | 4.16 | 1.30 | 52.6% | 19.1% | 8.8% | 0.75 | 1.11 |
| Norris | TOR | TBR | |||||||||
| Ramirez | TBR | TOR | 75.1 | 5.26 | 4.51 | 1.54 | 27.3% | 17.8% | 10.1% | 1.55 | 0.87 |
| Miller | ATL | PHI | 183 | 3.74 | 4.60 | 1.27 | 21.1% | 16.6% | 9.6% | 1.08 | 0.97 |
| Buchanan | PHI | ATL | 117.2 | 3.75 | 4.21 | 1.29 | 20.0% | 14.1% | 6.4% | 0.92 | 1.68 |
| Masterson | BOS | BAL | 128.2 | 5.88 | 4.03 | 1.63 | 36.8% | 19.6% | 11.7% | 0.84 | 2.70 |
| Chen | BAL | BOS | 185.2 | 3.54 | 3.85 | 1.23 | 31.6% | 17.6% | 4.5% | 1.11 | 1.09 |
| Wainwright | STL | MIL | 227 | 2.38 | 3.52 | 1.03 | 84.2% | 19.9% | 5.6% | 0.40 | 1.56 |
| Peralta | MIL | STL | 198.2 | 3.53 | 3.73 | 1.30 | 47.4% | 18.4% | 7.3% | 1.04 | 1.94 |
| Hudson | SFG | COL | 189.1 | 3.57 | 3.66 | 1.23 | 68.4% | 15.2% | 4.3% | 0.71 | 2.05 |
| De La Rosa | COL | SFG | 184.1 | 4.10 | 4.05 | 1.24 | 40.0% | 18.1% | 8.7% | 1.03 | 1.69 |
| Burnett | PIT | ARI | 213.2 | 4.59 | 4.00 | 1.41 | 38.1% | 20.3% | 10.3% | 0.84 | 1.78 |
| De La Rosa | ARI | PIT | 101.2 | 4.43 | 4.21 | 1.49 | 57.1% | 16.8% | 7.9% | 1.06 | 1.42 |
| McCarthy | LAD | SDP | 200 | 4.05 | 3.00 | 1.28 | 35.0% | 20.9% | 4.0% | 1.13 | 2.13 |
| Kennedy | SDP | LAD | 201 | 3.63 | 3.47 | 1.29 | 47.6% | 24.5% | 8.3% | 0.72 | 1.05 |
| Lewis | TEX | LAA | 170.1 | 5.18 | 4.22 | 1.52 | 11.8% | 17.5% | 6.3% | 1.32 | 0.75 |
| Wilson | LAA | TEX | 175.2 | 4.51 | 4.23 | 1.45 | 42.1% | 19.8% | 11.2% | 0.87 | 1.62 |
| May | MIN | SEA | 45.2 | 7.88 | 4.20 | 1.77 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 1.38 | 0.86 | |
| Paxton | SEA | MIN | 74 | 3.04 | 3.80 | 1.20 | 50.0% | 19.5% | 9.6% | 0.36 | 2.43 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Adam Wainwright STL (at MIL) – Waino is head and shoulders above the rest of the pitchers taking the mound tonight, and that’s before considering that his opponent is short a couple of bats. He has been very strong three his first three starts (1.71 ERA), but his most difficult outing came against the Brewers on April 13. Milwaukee struck for 8 hits and 5 runs (3 earned) that day, but 4 of those hits came from players who will be on the shelf for today’s game, including Carlos Gomez, Jonathan Lucroy, and Scooter Gennett.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Brandon McCarthy LAD (at SD) – McCarthy has been nothing short of dominant to start the season, with 25 strikeouts against just 3 walks through his first 18 innings. The right-hander used to sit 90-92 mph on his fastball, but he has steadily up the pitch-speed over the last few seasons and his average heater comes in at 94.5 mph this April. He’ll have the added bonus of pitching at Petco Park tonight, where McCarthy has a 2.25 ERA in 20 career innings.
A.J. Burnett PIT (at ARI) – Maybe it’s the uniform, but there’s something about pitching for the Pirates that agrees with A.J. Burnett (that something might be pitching coach Ray Searage). Burnett is a regular strikeout factory, which is what made his last start so odd: he struck out just one Cub over 6.3 innings, the first time that he has struck out that few batters in that many innings since April 11, 2010. Expect him to get back on track with a half-dozen K’s against Arizona today.
Shelby Miller ATL (at PHI) – Shelby went from The Next Big Thing to being a subject of mockery with Milli Vanilli speed, but he is slowly earning back the trust from critics. He’s experiencing a minor resurgence in Atlanta this season, and though he’s walked a couple more batters than you’d like to see, the more impressive development is his use of a high-80s cutter that Miller has gone to thrice as often this season, and with excellent results (batters are just 1-for-13 on the cut fastball so far).
James Paxton SEA (vs. MIN) – Paxton has been hit hard so far, and he hit bottom in his last turn against the Rangers, giving up 10 hits and 7 earned runs before hitting the showers with only 8 outs under his belt. Many gamers will avoid Paxton after a two-start run of futility, but his baseline skills are intact and he is facing an exceptionally weak lineup from Minnesota. Paxton has an unusual delivery , with tall arm angles that can make it tough for the hitter to pick up the baseball, so the southpaw might get a small edge from novelty value, since this will be his first career start against the Twins.
Ian Kennedy SD (vs. LAD) – Kennedy was right on the edge of whether to call or raise, so let’s just say that I’m not going any higher than the minimum if coming back over the top with IPK in my hand. He left his first start of the season in the third inning due to a strained hammy, and given the time of year he could be on a limited pitch count, but he’s a good bet to post a solid line tonight in Petco, assuming that the injury is fully healed.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bauer | 0.324 | 4.34 | 0.329 | 4.02 | 0.274 | 0.745 | 0.312 | 4.01 | 0.255 | 99.65 | 21.6% |
| Simon | 0.313 | 3.92 | 0.296 | 2.97 | 0.254 | 0.722 | 0.265 | 4.33 | 0.241 | 94.19 | 15.5% |
| Arrieta | 0.251 | 2.18 | 0.234 | 2.81 | 0.238 | 0.657 | 0.274 | 2.26 | 0.2 | 96.64 | 27.2% |
| Desclafani | 0.391 | 6.89 | 0.307 | 5.71 | 0.233 | 0.671 | 0.330 | 3.77 | 0.288 | 0.00 | 17.8% |
| Volquez | 0.321 | 3.44 | 0.286 | 2.74 | 0.251 | 0.705 | 0.263 | 4.15 | 0.229 | 93.03 | 17.3% |
| Danks | 0.317 | 4.11 | 0.355 | 4.96 | 0.266 | 0.710 | 0.291 | 4.76 | 0.266 | 103.06 | 15.1% |
| Feldman | 0.314 | 2.78 | 0.325 | 4.86 | 0.246 | 0.709 | 0.291 | 4.11 | 0.263 | 102.21 | 14.0% |
| Graveman | 0.233 | 0.673 | |||||||||
| Harvey | 0.240 | 0.677 | |||||||||
| Sabathia | 0.401 | 4.85 | 0.230 | 0.633 | 0.350 | 4.78 | 0.297 | 99.75 | 23.0% | ||
| Strasburg | 0.287 | 2.75 | 0.302 | 3.45 | 0.247 | 0.690 | 0.315 | 2.94 | 0.241 | 96.91 | 27.9% |
| Koehler | 0.292 | 3.43 | 0.329 | 4.22 | 0.248 | 0.709 | 0.290 | 3.84 | 0.244 | 91.91 | 19.1% |
| Norris | 0.249 | 0.693 | |||||||||
| Ramirez | 0.353 | 5.23 | 0.371 | 5.29 | 0.263 | 0.750 | 0.307 | 5.38 | 0.275 | 76.06 | 17.8% |
| Miller | 0.314 | 4.19 | 0.307 | 3.38 | 0.243 | 0.662 | 0.256 | 4.54 | 0.232 | 89.31 | 16.6% |
| Buchanan | 0.272 | 2.39 | 0.357 | 4.85 | 0.236 | 0.651 | 0.284 | 4.27 | 0.259 | 90.85 | 14.1% |
| Masterson | 0.400 | 6.68 | 0.332 | 4.99 | 0.257 | 0.732 | 0.339 | 4.50 | 0.278 | 0.00 | 19.6% |
| Chen | 0.298 | 3.20 | 0.326 | 3.65 | 0.242 | 0.690 | 0.296 | 3.89 | 0.263 | 96.03 | 17.6% |
| Wainwright | 0.277 | 2.27 | 0.243 | 2.46 | 0.254 | 0.708 | 0.267 | 2.88 | 0.219 | 101.81 | 19.9% |
| Peralta | 0.361 | 5.12 | 0.277 | 2.08 | 0.252 | 0.679 | 0.295 | 4.11 | 0.257 | 99.75 | 18.4% |
| Hudson | 0.331 | 3.71 | 0.292 | 3.41 | 0.276 | 0.763 | 0.300 | 3.54 | 0.266 | 89.81 | 15.2% |
| De La Rosa | 0.241 | 2.47 | 0.336 | 4.61 | 0.258 | 0.708 | 0.263 | 4.34 | 0.233 | 95.84 | 18.1% |
| Burnett | 0.350 | 5.22 | 0.316 | 4.06 | 0.250 | 0.679 | 0.302 | 4.14 | 0.249 | 102.12 | 20.3% |
| De La Rosa | 0.364 | 4.25 | 0.348 | 4.62 | 0.260 | 0.746 | 0.327 | 4.30 | 0.287 | 92.16 | 16.8% |
| McCarthy | 0.330 | 4.01 | 0.321 | 4.10 | 0.229 | 0.640 | 0.328 | 3.55 | 0.278 | 95.13 | 20.9% |
| Kennedy | 0.304 | 3.38 | 0.314 | 3.85 | 0.271 | 0.746 | 0.315 | 3.21 | 0.245 | 103.09 | 24.5% |
| Lewis | 0.373 | 4.68 | 0.355 | 5.77 | 0.254 | 0.716 | 0.339 | 4.46 | 0.299 | 96.62 | 17.5% |
| Wilson | 0.266 | 3.99 | 0.345 | 4.70 | 0.276 | 0.755 | 0.306 | 4.31 | 0.254 | 100.26 | 19.8% |
| May | 0.393 | 5.57 | 0.394 | 9.85 | 0.246 | 0.697 | 0.377 | 4.77 | 0.312 | 0.00 | 20.7% |
| Paxton | 0.251 | 1.46 | 0.281 | 3.36 | 0.260 | 0.708 | 0.27 | 3.28 | 0.22 | 90.92 | 19.5% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Wily Peralta MIL (vs. STL) – When a pitcher throws extremely hard but has a low K count, the expectation is that the strikeouts will eventually show themselves after masquerading as a lack of pitch command. Peralta has improved the pitch command of his mid-to-high 90’s fastball yet the K’s are still in hiding, and the fact that his average velocity has dropped two full ticks since this same time last year could act to keep the strikeout potential obscured.
Jorge De La Rosa COL (vs. SF) – De La Rosa is the one Rockies pitcher who can theoretically be trusted to pitch in Coors Field, with a home-road split that favors Denver and a career record of 45-15 at altitude. Of course, the same was true before DLR’s start against the Padres on Monday, and he left that contest after the 2nd inning with 9 runs on the scoreboard. Buster Posey ruins left-handed pitching, but the rest of the lineup is relatively weak, so De La Rosa might go out of his way to avoid him.
Rubby De La Rosa ARI (vs. PIT) – The other De La Rosa has better stuff than the first and a more favorable home environment (though not by much, it’s all relative), but he lacks the command and ownership of his own repertoire to succeed on a consistent basis. He faces a Pittsburgh club with a hobbled outfield that should ease his worries when those players are on the basepaths.
C.J. Wilson LAA (vs. TEX) – Wilson has sandwiched a couple of gems around a bad start, with the forgettable outing coming against a Kansas City ballclub that has forgotten what month it is. He’ll be able to take some of the thubder out of Prince Fielder’s bat, but his south paw could play right into the hands of Adrian Beltre, one of the most consistent hitters in the game but who has started slow out of the gate. Wilson’s a dice play, today and every day, but with Texas on the docket it’s not the worst time roll the dice.
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Justin Masterson BOS (at BAL) – Chris Davis is sharpening his stick at both ends
Tim Hudson SF (at COL)
Wei-Yin Chen BAL (vs. BOS)
David Buchanan PHI (vs. ATL)
Trevor May MIN (at SEA)
Colby Lewis TEX (at LAA)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
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- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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