Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, August 1st
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ventura | KCR | TOR | 266.1 | 3.72 | 3.82 | 1.30 | 44.4% | 20.2% | 8.3% | 0.71 | 1.59 |
| Buehrle | TOR | KCR | 336 | 3.35 | 4.30 | 1.29 | 60.0% | 13.2% | 4.8% | 0.75 | 1.41 |
| Moore | TBR | BOS | 33.2 | 6.15 | 5.22 | 1.78 | 13.4% | 10.8% | 1.07 | 1.05 | |
| Kelly | BOS | TBR | 176.1 | 4.90 | 4.26 | 1.41 | 40.0% | 17.1% | 9.6% | 0.97 | 1.88 |
| Heaney | LAA | LAD | 69.2 | 3.49 | 3.73 | 1.06 | 25.0% | 18.2% | 4.3% | 1.16 | 1.18 |
| Kershaw | LAD | LAA | 338.1 | 2.07 | 2.07 | 0.89 | 66.7% | 32.7% | 4.5% | 0.53 | 1.89 |
| Wisler | ATL | PHI | 42 | 3.43 | 4.68 | 1.33 | 14.6% | 6.7% | 0.86 | 0.82 | |
| Nola | PHI | ATL | 13.2 | 3.29 | 3.22 | 0.95 | 23.1% | 5.8% | 1.98 | 1.58 | |
| Sanchez | DET | BAL | 257.1 | 4.02 | 3.76 | 1.16 | 41.2% | 20.5% | 6.7% | 0.87 | 1.16 |
| Gausman | BAL | DET | 146.1 | 3.94 | 4.06 | 1.31 | 37.5% | 18.9% | 7.9% | 0.74 | 1.11 |
| Cole | PIT | CIN | 270.1 | 2.96 | 3.08 | 1.15 | 28.6% | 24.4% | 6.2% | 0.63 | 1.74 |
| Iglesias | CIN | PIT | 34.2 | 5.45 | 3.81 | 1.56 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 0.78 | 0.90 | |
| Hendricks | CHC | MIL | 191 | 3.16 | 3.64 | 1.11 | 18.2% | 4.6% | 0.66 | 1.54 | |
| Garza | MIL | CHC | 274 | 4.27 | 4.18 | 1.33 | 35.0% | 17.3% | 7.5% | 0.95 | 1.29 |
| Mitchell | NYY | CHW | 20.1 | 2.66 | 3.14 | 1.13 | 19.3% | 6.0% | 0.00 | 2.50 | |
| Danks | CHW | NYY | 298 | 4.71 | 4.56 | 1.43 | 50.0% | 15.4% | 7.9% | 1.18 | 0.99 |
| Ross | WAS | NYM | 32.2 | 3.03 | 2.49 | 0.95 | 26.4% | 2.3% | 0.28 | 1.80 | |
| Degrom | NYM | WAS | 267.2 | 2.39 | 3.07 | 1.02 | 50.0% | 25.8% | 6.3% | 0.54 | 1.31 |
| Hellickson | ARI | HOU | 171.1 | 4.57 | 3.91 | 1.37 | 19.6% | 6.9% | 1.16 | 1.08 | |
| Keuchel | HOU | ARI | 351 | 2.67 | 2.90 | 1.10 | 50.0% | 19.9% | 5.9% | 0.49 | 3.64 |
| Despaigne | SDP | MIA | 192.2 | 4.06 | 4.21 | 1.22 | 100.0% | 14.3% | 6.5% | 0.89 | 1.76 |
| Urena | MIA | SDP | 42.1 | 4.04 | 5.01 | 1.42 | 10.7% | 9.6% | 0.85 | 1.87 | |
| Montgomery | SEA | MIN | 63.2 | 3.25 | 4.29 | 1.19 | 17.1% | 8.0% | 0.85 | 1.33 | |
| Gibson | MIN | SEA | 303.1 | 4.06 | 4.08 | 1.29 | 52.6% | 15.3% | 7.5% | 0.71 | 2.10 |
| De La Rosa | COL | STL | 272 | 4.27 | 4.03 | 1.29 | 40.0% | 19.6% | 9.7% | 1.09 | 1.71 |
| Lynn | STL | COL | 313 | 2.76 | 3.64 | 1.25 | 60.0% | 22.7% | 8.0% | 0.58 | 1.18 |
| Heston | SFG | TEX | 124.1 | 3.26 | 3.44 | 1.17 | 19.6% | 6.9% | 0.43 | 2.58 |
| Anderson | CLE | OAK | 33 | 1.91 | 4.54 | 0.91 | 9.6% | 2.4% | 0.82 | 1.44 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Jacob deGrom NYM (vs. WAS) – There may not be a more entertaining pitcher to watch right now than Jacob deGrom. The ease with which he pumps high-90’s gas, augmented by a well-balanced delivery and deep release point, makes it difficult not to get mesmerized by his flowing locks and the natural rhythm to his pitching motion. The Nats have gone through some major changes since deGrom faced them just ten days ago, thanks to the addition of three middle-order Nats bats who have since returned from the disabled list, but those hitters might need some playing time to shake off the rust and may not be in the peak form necessary to hit deGrom.
Gerrit Cole PIT (at CIN) – Cole is a QS machine this season, posting box scores that fit within the framework of a quality start 17 times out of 20 turns this season. The right-hander coasted through July, with four consecutive starts of 7.0 or more innings and just three total walks on the month. He chews up innings with a strikeout per frame, keeps the free passes off the base paths and the baseball in the yard. With an A-grade delivery and the stuff to match, not to mention the learning curve to put it all together, it seems that Cole still has a ways to go before hitting ceiling. That thought alone has been known to haunt the dreams of batsmen across the National League.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Cole Hamels TEX (vs. SF) – Go figure that it’s Hamels’ first game as a Ranger and he’s facing an NL team. I suppose that it will help to ease the transition in theory as the southpaw takes the mound as a non-Philly for the first time, but Hamels is an accomplished veteran who should have little trouble making the transition. The vet is coming off perhaps the best game of his ten-year career, a 13-K no-hitter at the mercy of the Cubs that punched his final ticket out of Philly. He’ll want to be careful with Buster Posey, who is hitting .458/.480/.750 off of Hamels in 25 career plate appearances.
Dallas Keuchel HOU (vs. ARI) – Keuchel immediately followed his incredible 13-strikeout performance of two starts ago by getting hammered by the Royals in Kansas City, with 10 hits and five earned allowed in a game that qualified as his worst outing of the campaign. Keuchel;s the glue that holds the roster. He has thrown 151.0 innings already this season, and the Astros show no signs of easing off the gas pedal with his innings in the effort to seize playoff baseball in Houston.
Lance Lynn STL (vs. COL) – Since the start of the 2014 season, Lynn has put up 320 frames of 2.73-ERA baseball with a total of 305 strikeouts and a 1.25 WHIP. He walks a few more guys than you like to see but the St. Louis right-hander has been an absolute rock this season, limiting opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 15 out of his 19 starts on the year. Tonight he faces a Rockie club at sea level that has lost it’s best player to trade and recently watched Corey Dickerson go back to the disabled list for the third time this season.
Joe Ross WAS (at NYM) – The lazy analysis is to say that Ross emulates his brother Tyson, but the advanced analysis agrees with that assertion, from the stuff to the mechanics and the healthy diet of sliders that populate his approach. Joe is a touch shorter than his brother, throws a tick slower, and is a bit less promiscuous with his sliders, but his fastball command appears to be far superior at this stage and the excellent coaching in Washington will help to ensure that the pitch command remains intact. The Mets have been an offensive black hole at times this season, but they recently received reinforcements from all angles, including call-up (Michael Conforto), injury (Travis d’Arnaud), and trade (Yoenis Cespedes).
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ventura | 0.303 | 3.72 | 0.312 | 3.71 | 0.254 | 0.754 | 0.297 | 3.59 | 0.245 | 93.98 | 20.2% |
| Buehrle | 0.322 | 3.45 | 0.319 | 3.31 | 0.272 | 0.713 | 0.303 | 3.73 | 0.276 | 95.50 | 13.2% |
| Moore | 0.344 | 5.79 | 0.396 | 6.29 | 0.234 | 0.668 | 0.348 | 5.17 | 0.314 | 86.86 | 13.4% |
| Kelly | 0.312 | 4.04 | 0.339 | 5.88 | 0.232 | 0.656 | 0.291 | 4.42 | 0.254 | 94.22 | 17.1% |
| Heaney | 0.239 | 1.78 | 0.327 | 4.47 | 0.257 | 0.737 | 0.261 | 4.04 | 0.236 | 79.77 | 18.2% |
| Kershaw | 0.238 | 1.87 | 0.240 | 2.13 | 0.248 | 0.712 | 0.285 | 1.93 | 0.198 | 101.68 | 32.7% |
| Wisler | 0.355 | 3.57 | 0.307 | 3.33 | 0.245 | 0.661 | 0.296 | 3.99 | 0.267 | 90.57 | 14.6% |
| Nola | 0.321 | 1.59 | 0.260 | 4.50 | 0.258 | 0.691 | 0.206 | 4.82 | 0.204 | 90.00 | 23.1% |
| Sanchez | 0.270 | 3.09 | 0.323 | 5.30 | 0.252 | 0.734 | 0.273 | 3.55 | 0.231 | 99.31 | 20.5% |
| Gausman | 0.323 | 3.43 | 0.289 | 4.62 | 0.277 | 0.763 | 0.298 | 3.65 | 0.252 | 78.69 | 18.9% |
| Cole | 0.295 | 2.34 | 0.289 | 3.52 | 0.255 | 0.720 | 0.307 | 2.97 | 0.239 | 100.60 | 24.4% |
| Iglesias | 0.388 | 7.02 | 0.307 | 4.00 | 0.257 | 0.703 | 0.362 | 3.47 | 0.287 | 77.13 | 22.2% |
| Hendricks | 0.297 | 2.48 | 0.279 | 3.72 | 0.260 | 0.712 | 0.285 | 3.27 | 0.244 | 88.25 | 18.2% |
| Garza | 0.325 | 3.87 | 0.309 | 4.60 | 0.233 | 0.678 | 0.291 | 4.02 | 0.255 | 93.07 | 17.3% |
| Mitchell | 0.302 | 3.68 | 0.294 | 2.08 | 0.249 | 0.679 | 0.305 | 2.71 | 0.24 | 35.56 | 19.3% |
| Danks | 0.297 | 3.91 | 0.363 | 4.99 | 0.245 | 0.742 | 0.299 | 4.60 | 0.271 | 100.28 | 15.4% |
| Ross | 0.337 | 4.76 | 0.179 | 2.11 | 0.242 | 0.669 | 0.303 | 1.84 | 0.226 | 93.40 | 26.4% |
| Degrom | 0.269 | 2.27 | 0.238 | 2.48 | 0.254 | 0.722 | 0.272 | 2.62 | 0.209 | 100.93 | 25.8% |
| Hellickson | 0.311 | 4.41 | 0.347 | 4.72 | 0.244 | 0.739 | 0.308 | 4.02 | 0.265 | 93.16 | 19.6% |
| Keuchel | 0.227 | 2.35 | 0.286 | 2.77 | 0.263 | 0.726 | 0.282 | 2.98 | 0.232 | 104.38 | 19.9% |
| Despaigne | 0.318 | 3.88 | 0.296 | 4.23 | 0.247 | 0.661 | 0.268 | 4.20 | 0.245 | 86.36 | 14.3% |
| Urena | 0.314 | 3.00 | 0.351 | 5.06 | 0.236 | 0.662 | 0.289 | 4.74 | 0.272 | 74.78 | 10.7% |
| Montgomery | 0.321 | 2.40 | 0.284 | 3.51 | 0.252 | 0.695 | 0.259 | 4.01 | 0.229 | 96.40 | 17.1% |
| Gibson | 0.307 | 3.82 | 0.302 | 4.32 | 0.233 | 0.689 | 0.286 | 3.87 | 0.253 | 94.53 | 15.3% |
| De La Rosa | 0.284 | 3.94 | 0.330 | 4.36 | 0.231 | 0.660 | 0.271 | 4.38 | 0.235 | 95.35 | 19.6% |
| Lynn | 0.307 | 3.22 | 0.282 | 2.41 | 0.277 | 0.793 | 0.298 | 3.12 | 0.236 | 104.49 | 22.7% |
| Heston | 0.325 | 4.29 | 0.261 | 2.39 | 0.262 | 0.753 | 0.296 | 3.19 | 0.241 | 84.91 | 19.6% |
| Anderson | 0.280 | 3.68 | 0.222 | 0.49 | 0.259 | 0.711 | 0.224 | 3.79 | 0.221 | 86.20 | 9.6% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Aaron Nola PHI (vs. ATL) – Nola has started his MLB career with an easy line of opponents, beginning with his debut against the Rays (fewest runs-per-game in the American League) and continuing into start number two versus the Cubbie windmills that populate Chicago’s north side. The Braves offense was a punchline in the preseason but they have been more effective in real life than on paper, and the recent return of Freddie Freeman injects an imposing force back into the middle of their lineup. The rookie has a solid delivery, effective secondaries, and enough velocity to keep batters honest. He may not possess the tremendous upside that is commonly associated with a player picked in the top ten of the draft, but his likelihood of success at the highest level is far superior to the vast majority of his 2014 draft cohort.
Chris Heston SF (at TEX) – Heston has climbed from virtual unknown to fantasy darling in the span of a few months, and though his June 9th no-hitter put him on the national map, the fact that Heston has continued to thrive has earned the respect of the fantasy community. In his eight starts since the no-np, Heston has tossed 52.0 innings of 2.25 ERA baseball, though his strikeouts have cratered to just 33 over that stretch, including three separate starts in which he struck out just one or two batters. The low K count will kill his fantasy point total, but the lack of consistency in that department opens up the possibility of a big outing.
Anibal Sanchez DET (at BAL) – Sanchez’s biggest weakness is the Orioles’ greatest strength: homers. Sanchez has surrendered 22 of them this season in 21 starts, while Baltimore’s 129 homers as a team rank them fourth in baseball. The right-hander is currently on a run of so-so starts, throwing between 5.3 and 7.3 innings and giving up between two and four earned runs in each of his last seven turns; six of the seven have been 6.0-to-7.3 innings and three-to-four earnies. It’s the type of ho-hum line that will earn a score in the mid-teens on DraftKings – each of the aforementioned games resulted in a fantasy point total between 12.0 and 18.9 on DK.
Matt Wisler ATL (at PHI) – Wisler receives a boost due to his opponent, as the Phillies have just a .295 wOBA and 673 OPS as a team this season, but enthusiasm should be a tempered for a pitcher who has just 26 strikeouts in 42.0 innings. He cleared the 100-pitch mark for the first time in his big-league career in his last turn, and an expanded pitch count will help him to accumulate the innings and strikeouts necessary for a bigger score in DFS.
Kevin Gausman BAL (vs. DET) – Starting Gausman has been a dice roll this season, with an equal chance of twirling a gem (7.7 shutout frames in his last start) or crapping out (12 runs in 9.7 innings across his previous two turns). He tossed a season-high 107 pitches in his last start after previously topping out at 95 throws; Gausman still has a bright future (that is if the Orioles keep him in the rotation), and tonight’s matchup with the Tigers feels much less intimidating with Cespedes traded out of town and Miguel Cabrera on the disabled list.
Raisel Iglesias CIN (vs. PIT)
Mike Montgomery SEA (at MIN)
Jose Urena MIA (at SD)
Kyle Hendricks CHC (at MIL)
Kyle Gibson MIN (vs. SEA)
Odrisamer Despaigne SD (vs. MIA)
Matt Garza MIL (vs. CHC)
Cody Anderson CLE (at OAK)
Jeremy Hellickson ARI (at HOU)
Jorge de la Rosa COL (at STL)
Bryan Mitchell NYY (at CHW) – Expect this converted reliever to have a limited pitch count before giving way to the Yankee bullpen. He was sent down to Triple-A to stretch his innings, but the fact that he threw just 65 pitches in his last outing is indicative of his limited pitch count.
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
John Danks CHW (vs. NYY)
Aaron Brooks OAK (vs. CLE) – He had extremely low walk rates in the minors but he was hit hard at every level, with a modest K count that paints the picture of a pitch-to-contact starter who could very well take his lumps if he catches too much plate against big-league hitters.
Starting Pitcher Salaries
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