Anibal Sanchez Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Anibal Sanchez is an exceptional contact manager (86.2 mph aEV, 27.6% 95+ mph EV, 10.7% HR/FB, 11.2 Hard-Soft% are all top three on the board) with below average peripherals (10.4 K-BB%). This, along with a .264 BABIP, has kept his 3.86 ERA more than a run below his SIERA & xFIP and about half a run below his FIP and DRA. He’s in a great spot to continue that contact suppression tonight in Miami. The Marlins have a sub-12 HR/FB at home and vs RHP and may even provide a few extra strikeouts (78 wRC+, 25 K% vs RHP). The projected lineup for the Marlins does not include a single batter above a .150 ISO or .325 wOBA vs RHP. Sanchez is just slightly above $8K on either site and has gone at least seven innings in three of his last four starts. The upside may be a limited, but we should expect some length and it would truly be a surprise if he were hit hard by the Marlins tonight.

Anibal Sanchez has experienced a reduction in strikeouts over the last month (15.4%), but with an increase in SwStr rate (10.6%). He’s been a strong contact manager (26% 95+ mph aEV, 11.5 Hard-Soft% are both top two on the board) with below average peripherals (10.3 K-BB%), while his.270 BABIP seems a fluke with this defense (.308 BABIP) and a 26.5 LD%, resulting in estimators around a run or higher above his 3.80 ERA. Batters from either side of the plate are below a .310 wOBA and xwOBA against Sanchez over the last calendar year, but the Dodgers have top five splits on the board in wRC+ (118), K-BB (9.8%), HR/FB (18.1) and Hard-Soft (26.3%) vs RHP. The first seven batters in tonight’s projected lineup are above a .170 ISO vs RHP over the last 12 months and only one is below a 100 wRC+ (A.J. Pollock 82) over that span. The lefties are generally the key vs RHP with Cody Bellinger (179 wRC+, .330 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Joc Pederson (124 wRC+, .301 ISO) and Max Muncy (152 wRC+, .301) leading an immensely powerful lineup, but Justin Turner (151 wRC+, .174 ISO) could be the value here against a pitcher without much of a platoon split. He leads the team with a 202 wRC+ over the last week and costs less than any of the above mentioned lefties. Currently at 5.32 implied runs, just three offenses find themselves above the Dodgers tonight.

Today is the best day of the post-season for MLB DFS, as it's the only day players are guaranteed four games. It's not surprising that it's a pitcher friendly slate (no team above 4.5 implied runs), but not a single pitcher exceeds $10K on DraftKings, though three are above $10K on FanDuel. Both Corey Kluber (35.3 K%, 2.56 SIERA, .262 xwOBA last 30 days) and Justin Verlander (41.7 K%, 1.92 SIERA, .209 xwOBA last 30 days) finished the season with a flourish and are pitching in one of the most negative run environments in baseball tonight. The case against them is that both the Astros (19.2%) and Indians (18.8%) have two of the lowest strikeout rates in the league against RHP. Chris Sale (38.4 K%, 2.27 SIERA, .240 xwOBA this season) is the other high priced pitcher today and he comes with some concerns, mostly a significant velocity drop in his last start, though he did reach 92 pitches, his most since returning from the DL. He also has to contend with the Yankees (115 wRC+, 18.4 HR/FB vs LHP) in the most positive run environment on the board, though temperatures are expected to be in the 50s with the Yankees implied for just 3.2 runs. All of these factors combine to make Sale an interesting GPP option. J.A. Happ (26.3 K%, 3.64 SIERA, .315 xwOBA) will be receiving the same weather neutralizing benefit and costs less against an offense less potent against LHP (92 wRC+) and respectably struck out 13 of 49 Red Sox, allowing four ERs in 12 IP as a Yankee. Clayton Kershaw (23.9 K%, 3.45 SIERA, .291 xwOBA) faces a contact prone Atlanta offense (107 wRC+, 20.1 K% vs LHP), though they were shut down by another southpaw last night. While Anibal Sanchez (24.4 K%, 3.85 SIERA, .285 xwOBA) and Tyler Anderson (22.3 K%, 4.22 SIERA, .308 xwOBA) are both fine pitchers at a lower cost, both are facing difficult offenses (Dodgers 116 wRC+ vs RHP, Brewers 15.8 HR/FB vs LHP) with potentially quicker hooks as their teams each trail in their series. Jhoulys Chacin (19.6 K%, 4.59 SIERA, .331 xwOBA) is the worst pitcher on the board by most metrics, but also someone players may want to look at in their SP2 spot on DraftKings ($5.2K). He pitched great in Chicago and the Rockies struggle against RHP (82 wRC+) and on the road (78 wRC+). Additionally, the Milwaukee bullpen was worn out last night, while owning the lead in the series may give him a bit longer leash.

Players are more likely than not spending up for pitching tonight. On DraftKings, that may also necessitate moving to the bottom of the board for an SP2. Josh James is making just his second start and doesn't have a very appealing matchup (Mariners 20.2 K% vs RHP). However, he pitches in one of the most negative run environments in baseball, had a 24.9 K-BB% in 17 AAA starts, and costs the minimum on DK. Joey Lucchesi is an affordable arm in the $7.5K range, who may be used as a compliment or even on his own against the Giants (80 wRC+, 15.9 K-BB%, 10.5 HR/FB vs LHP). He has a 25.4 K% and 3.78 SIERA with a matching ERA. His workload is a bit erratic though, going over 100 three starts back, but below 90 in three of his last four overall. Anibal Sanchez (24.1 K%, 3.92 SIERA, .291 xwOBA) is in a decent spot against the Cardinals (95 wRC+, 14.0 K-BB% vs RHP) at a reasonable cost around $8K. A bit more expensive are Jameson Taillon (22 K%, 3.84 SIERA, .299 xwOBA) hosting the Royals (93 wRC+, 10.8 HR/FB vs RHP) and Derek Holland (23.8 K%, 4.12 SIERA, .328 xwOBA) in San Diego (89 wRC+, 15.5 K-BB% vs LHP).