Aaron Nola

Philadelphia Phillies
Pos: SP | Hand: R
Status: Active
player props
FPTS -6 -1 5 10 16 21 27 32 37 SAL $8.9K $9.2K $9.6K $9.9K $10.3K $10.6K $11K $11.3K $11.7K $12K
  • FPTS: 15.9
  • FPTS: 29.5
  • FPTS: 0
  • FPTS: 29
  • FPTS: 31.2
  • FPTS: 8.2
  • FPTS: 13.35
  • FPTS: 0
  • FPTS: 42.85
  • FPTS: 22.75
  • FPTS: 0
  • FPTS: 15.3
  • FPTS: 23.25
  • FPTS: 28.55
  • FPTS: -11.55
  • FPTS: 16.5
  • SAL: $9.3K
  • SAL: $10.3K
  • SAL: $10.4K
  • SAL: $10.8K
  • SAL: $10.3K
  • SAL: $9.9K
  • SAL: $9.6K
  • SAL: $9.5K
  • SAL: $11.8K
  • SAL: $9.8K
  • SAL: $10K
  • SAL: $9K
  • SAL: $12K
  • SAL: $10.5K
  • SAL: $9K
  • SAL: $8.5K
04/15 04/17 04/21 04/27 05/03 05/08 05/13 05/14 05/19 05/22 05/26 05/31 06/05 06/13 06/18
Date Opp DKSAL FDSAL DKFPTS FDFPTS k ip ab sho w hra l er cg ha 3ba bba sba ibba whip hbp qstart 1ba k/9 2ba
2024-06-18 vs. SD $8.5K $10.2K 16.5 31 6 6 22 0 0 1 0 3 0 4 0 1 0 0 0.83 0 1 3 9 0
2024-06-13 @ BOS $9K $10.6K -11.55 -7 2 3 24 0 0 1 1 8 0 11 0 2 0 0 3.55 0 0 5 4.91 5
2024-06-05 vs. MIL $10.5K $10.6K 28.55 46 5 7 24 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0.29 0 1 1 6.43 1
2024-05-31 vs. STL $12K $10.4K 23.25 41 6 6 24 0 1 2 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 0 0.79 0 1 1 8.53 0
2024-05-25 @ COL $9K $10.3K 15.3 31 5 6 26 0 0 0 0 2 0 5 0 2 0 0 1.17 0 1 5 7.5 0
2024-05-22 vs. TEX $10K $10.2K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024-05-19 vs. WSH $9.8K $10.2K 22.75 40 5 7 28 0 1 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 0 0.71 0 1 0 6.43 0
2024-05-14 @ NYM $11.8K $9.9K 42.85 61 8 9 30 1 1 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 0 0.44 0 1 3 8 1
2024-05-13 @ NYM $9.5K $10.2K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024-05-08 vs. TOR $9.6K $10.2K 13.35 26 7 5 26 0 0 0 1 4 0 9 0 0 0 0 1.59 0 0 7 11.12 2
2024-05-03 vs. SF $9.9K $10.6K 8.2 18 4 4 19 0 0 0 0 2 0 4 0 4 0 0 2 0 0 3 9 1
2024-04-26 @ SD $10.3K $10.1K 31.2 55 10 8 32 0 1 1 0 3 0 7 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 5 11.25 1
2024-04-21 vs. CHW $10.8K $10.3K 29 49 7 8 30 0 1 1 0 2 0 4 0 1 0 0 0.63 0 1 2 7.87 1
2024-04-17 vs. COL $10.4K $10.2K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024-04-15 vs. COL $10.3K $10.2K 29.5 50 9 7 27 0 0 1 0 1 0 4 0 1 0 0 0.68 0 1 3 11.05 0
2024-04-10 @ STL $9.3K $10.6K 15.9 31 3 6 23 0 1 2 0 2 0 3 0 3 0 0 1 0 1 1 4.5 0
2024-04-05 @ WSH $9K $10.1K 21.15 35 4 5 22 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 4 0 0 1.06 0 0 1 6.35 1
2024-03-30 vs. ATL $9.9K $10.3K -6.05 1 3 4 24 0 0 2 1 7 0 12 0 1 0 0 3 0 0 7 6.23 3
2024-03-24 vs. TOR $4.5K -- 22.95 35 4 5 20 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0.53 0 0 2 6.35 0
2024-03-13 vs. DET $4.5K -- 16.1 26 5 4 17 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 0 0.86 0 0 1 9.64 0
2024-03-07 @ TB $4.5K -- 8.65 17 5 3 17 0 0 0 1 3 0 6 0 0 0 0 1.64 0 0 4 12.27 2
2024-03-01 vs. MIA -- -- -6.05 -3 0 3 16 0 0 0 0 4 0 7 0 0 0 0 2.33 1 0 4 0 3
2024-02-25 vs. NYY -- -- 14.5 21 3 2 6 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13.5 0
2023-10-23 vs. ARI $8.7K $10.3K 4.95 13 4 4 20 0 0 2 1 4 0 6 1 2 0 0 1.85 0 0 2 8.31 1
2023-10-17 vs. ARI $8.6K -- 29.7 49 7 6 22 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0.5 0 1 2 10.5 1
2023-10-16 vs. ARI $8.6K $10.1K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-10-11 vs. ATL $9.6K $10.1K 26.55 44 9 5 24 0 1 0 0 2 0 6 0 1 0 0 1.24 0 0 5 14.29 1
2023-10-04 vs. MIA $8K $8.7K 22.75 40 3 7 23 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 0 1 0 0 0.57 1 1 2 3.86 1
2023-09-26 vs. PIT $9.2K $9.2K 26.6 45 8 6 23 0 0 1 0 1 0 4 0 0 0 0 0.6 0 1 3 10.8 0
2023-09-20 @ ATL $10K $9K 21.9 40 8 6 26 0 0 0 0 2 0 6 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 5 12 1
2023-09-15 @ STL $10.4K $10.2K 3.7 11 1 4 24 0 0 0 0 2 0 7 0 1 1 0 1.71 0 0 7 1.93 0
2023-09-11 vs. ATL $10.6K -- 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-09-09 vs. MIA $10.6K $10.2K 9.55 19 6 4 20 0 0 1 0 4 0 7 0 0 0 0 1.62 0 0 2 12.46 4
2023-09-04 @ SD $10.3K $10.3K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-09-02 @ MIL $10.6K $10.3K -0.1 8 5 4 25 0 0 1 1 7 0 8 0 3 0 0 2.36 0 0 3 9.64 4
2023-08-28 vs. LAA $9.4K $9.8K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-08-27 vs. STL $10.4K $9.8K 36.55 58 9 7 23 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0.29 0 1 0 11.57 1
2023-08-22 vs. SF $9.4K $9.9K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-08-21 vs. SF $9.4K $9.9K 20.95 40 5 7 26 0 1 2 0 2 0 7 0 1 0 0 1.14 0 1 5 6.43 0
2023-08-18 @ WSH $9K $9.3K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-08-16 @ TOR $9K $9.3K 16.45 30 7 5 24 0 1 1 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 0 1.6 0 0 3 12.6 0
2023-08-12 vs. MIN $12K $10K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-08-10 vs. WSH $10.5K $10K 17.65 30 6 5 23 0 0 0 0 1 0 5 0 1 0 0 1.2 0 0 4 10.8 1
2023-08-05 vs. KC $12K $9.9K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-08-04 vs. KC $10K $9.9K 12.6 25 8 5 26 0 0 2 1 5 0 8 0 1 0 0 1.69 0 0 4 13.5 2
2023-07-31 @ MIA $12K $9.9K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-07-29 @ PIT $11K $9.9K 5.3 17 6 4 26 0 0 1 1 5 0 9 1 3 0 0 2.57 0 0 4 11.57 3
2023-07-24 vs. BAL $12K $9.8K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-07-23 @ CLE $11K $9.8K 20.15 37 7 7 28 0 0 2 0 3 0 6 0 0 0 0 0.86 0 1 4 9 0
2023-07-18 vs. MIL $12.2K $9.4K 25.5 44 6 7 27 0 1 0 0 2 0 5 0 0 0 0 0.68 0 1 4 7.36 1
2023-07-15 vs. SD $10.3K $9.4K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-07-14 vs. SD $12K $9.4K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-07-09 @ MIA $10.3K $9.4K 12.7 24 6 6 26 0 0 3 1 4 0 8 0 0 0 0 1.33 0 0 4 9 1
2023-07-07 @ MIA $10.3K $9.4K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-07-04 @ TB $10.4K $9.4K 38.9 65 12 7 30 0 1 1 0 1 0 5 0 1 0 0 0.82 0 1 4 14.73 0
2023-06-30 vs. WSH $10.4K $9.6K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-06-28 @ CHC $10.4K $9.6K 9.25 21 4 5 24 0 1 2 0 4 0 7 0 3 0 0 2 0 0 5 7.2 0
2023-06-22 vs. ATL $10K $9.3K 21.1 37 5 6 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 0 0.67 0 1 1 7.5 1
2023-06-15 @ ARI $10.2K $9.4K 24.8 41 9 6 28 0 1 1 0 4 0 6 0 1 0 0 1.05 0 0 4 12.15 1
2023-06-12 @ ARI $10.3K $10.3K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-06-10 vs. LAD $10.3K $10.3K 10.85 22 7 6 28 0 0 1 1 6 0 7 0 2 0 0 1.42 0 0 5 9.95 1
2023-06-05 vs. DET $10.2K $10K 41.35 67 12 7 24 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 3 0 0 0.57 0 1 0 15.43 0
2023-05-31 @ NYM $9.1K $9.9K 11.3 21 5 6 25 0 0 1 1 4 0 4 0 3 0 0 1.17 0 0 3 7.5 0
2023-05-25 @ ATL $9.5K $9.7K 11.5 24 7 6 29 0 0 3 0 5 0 8 0 2 1 0 1.67 0 0 4 10.5 1
2023-05-24 vs. ARI $9.6K $9.5K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-05-20 vs. CHC $9.2K $9.2K 32.75 55 10 7 25 0 1 1 0 2 0 4 0 1 0 0 0.71 0 1 2 12.86 1
2023-05-14 @ COL $11.4K $9K 11.55 21 4 7 30 0 0 1 1 4 0 6 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 4 5.14 1
2023-05-12 @ COL $8.7K $8.8K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-05-09 vs. TOR $9.2K $8.8K 21.3 40 6 6 24 0 1 1 0 2 0 5 0 2 0 0 1.17 0 1 2 9 2
2023-05-03 @ LAD $9K $8.6K 11.45 26 5 6 27 0 0 1 0 4 0 7 1 0 0 0 1.11 1 1 3 7.11 2
2023-05-01 @ LAD $9.6K $9K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-28 @ HOU $9.6K $9K 30.2 49 6 8 27 0 1 1 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 0 0.38 0 1 2 6.75 0
2023-04-25 vs. SEA $9.6K $9.3K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-21 vs. COL $9.4K $9.3K 11.55 25 3 7 25 0 0 1 0 3 0 4 0 3 0 0 1 0 1 3 3.86 0
2023-04-19 @ CHW $8.3K $9.7K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-18 @ CHW $8.5K $9.7K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-16 @ CIN $8.4K $9.7K 16.7 34 4 6 26 0 1 0 0 2 0 5 0 3 2 0 1.33 0 1 3 6 2
2023-04-15 @ CIN $8.3K $9.8K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-14 @ CIN $8 $9.8K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-13 @ CIN $8.3K $9.8K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-12 vs. MIA $8.2K $9.8K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-11 vs. MIA $8 $9.8K 11.35 23 6 5 26 0 0 1 1 4 0 9 1 0 0 0 1.59 0 0 5 9.53 2
2023-04-10 vs. MIA $8 $9.7K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-09 vs. CIN $8.1K $9.7K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-08 vs. CIN $8K $9.7K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-07 vs. CIN $7.9K $9.7K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-05 @ NYY $7.7K $9.7K 12.7 28 5 6 24 0 0 0 1 3 0 7 0 1 0 0 1.33 0 1 5 7.5 2
2023-04-04 @ NYY $8.7K $10.8K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-03 @ NYY $8.8K $10.8K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-04-01 @ TEX $8K $10.8K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-03-30 @ TEX -- -- 2.65 8 4 3 17 0 0 1 0 5 0 4 0 2 0 0 1.64 0 0 2 9.82 1
2023-03-25 vs. NYY -- -- -8.45 -7 1 1 0 0 0 2 1 5 0 6 0 1 0 0 4.2 0 0 4 5.4 0
2023-03-19 vs. BOS -- -- 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-03-15 @ NYY -- -- 17.85 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023-03-09 vs. BAL -- -- -1.45 3 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 5 0 2 0 0 2.33 0 0 5 3 0
2023-03-04 vs. PIT -- -- 12.15 18 2 3 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0.33 0 0 1 6 0
2023-02-27 @ PIT -- -- 5.9 9 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0.5 0 0 0 4.5 0
2022-11-02 vs. HOU $8.4K -- 6.2 15 4 4 20 0 0 0 1 3 0 7 0 0 0 0 1.75 1 0 6 9 1
2022-10-28 @ HOU $10.6K -- 4.95 13 5 4 20 0 0 2 0 5 0 6 0 2 0 0 1.85 0 0 3 10.38 1
2022-10-19 @ SD $8.5K $9.8K 6.3 14 6 4 21 0 0 2 1 6 0 7 0 0 0 0 1.5 0 0 3 11.57 2
2022-10-14 vs. ATL $9.1K $10.8K 25.3 46 6 6 26 0 1 0 0 0 0 5 0 2 0 0 1.17 0 1 3 9 2
2022-10-08 @ STL $9.1K $10.4K 28 48 6 6 25 0 1 0 0 0 0 4 0 1 0 0 0.75 0 1 4 8.1 0
2022-10-03 @ HOU $10.4K $10.8K 35.8 57 9 6 22 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0.3 0 1 2 12.15 0
2022-09-28 @ CHC $9.7K $10.3K 17.9 30 8 6 25 0 0 1 1 4 0 5 0 0 0 0 0.83 1 0 4 12 0
2022-09-23 vs. ATL $9.3K $10.3K 29.3 52 8 6 24 0 1 0 0 0 0 4 0 3 0 0 1.17 0 1 4 12 0
2022-09-17 @ ATL $10.1K $10.6K 18.35 33 8 7 30 0 0 1 1 4 0 7 0 2 0 0 1.29 0 0 4 10.29 2
2022-09-11 vs. WSH $10.8K $11K 7.3 12 2 2 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 9 1
2022-09-06 vs. MIA $10.1K $10.7K 29.4 51 10 6 25 0 0 0 0 1 0 4 0 2 0 0 0.9 0 1 3 13.5 1
2022-08-30 @ ARI $10.6K $11K -3.6 3 5 4 24 0 0 1 1 8 0 10 1 0 0 0 2.5 1 0 6 11.25 2
2022-08-25 vs. CIN $10K $10.8K 47.65 70 11 9 33 1 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 0 0.56 1 1 4 11 1
2022-08-19 vs. NYM $9.8K $10.7K 13.85 27 9 5 25 0 0 1 1 5 0 8 0 1 0 0 1.8 0 0 4 16.2 3
2022-08-13 @ NYM $10.1K $10.4K 31.5 49 8 8 28 0 0 0 1 1 1 4 0 1 0 0 0.63 0 1 4 9 0
2022-08-07 vs. WSH $10K $10.8K 21.3 40 5 6 24 0 1 0 0 1 0 5 0 2 0 0 1.17 0 1 5 7.5 0
2022-07-31 @ PIT $9.7K $10.7K 27.3 49 8 6 25 0 1 0 0 1 0 6 0 1 0 0 1.17 0 1 4 12 2
2022-07-26 vs. ATL $10K $10.6K 12.7 24 7 6 26 0 0 2 1 5 0 7 0 1 0 0 1.33 0 0 2 10.5 3
2022-07-17 @ MIA $9.9K $10.2K 39.75 65 10 8 29 0 1 0 0 0 0 4 0 1 0 0 0.6 0 1 4 10.8 0
2022-07-11 @ STL $10K $10.1K 15.55 27 7 7 0 0 0 1 1 5 0 7 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 4 9 2
2022-07-06 vs. WSH $10.1K $10.5K 12.45 27 3 7.2 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 7 0 1 0 0 1.04 0 1 5 3.52 2
2022-06-30 vs. ATL $10K $10.8K 22.95 39 8 7 0 0 1 2 0 4 0 7 0 1 0 0 1.14 0 0 5 10.29 0
2022-06-24 @ SD $10.3K $10.3K 28.35 52 10 7 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 7 0 2 0 0 1.29 0 1 5 12.86 2

Aaron Nola Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Phillies-Braves postponed due to rain Wednesday

Phillies-Braves postponed due to rain Wednesday

Game Note: Phillies-Braves won't start at 7:15 ET; still in a rain delay Wednesday

Game Note: Phillies-Braves won't start at 7:15 ET; still in a rain delay Wednesday

Game Note: Phillies-Braves will be delayed due to rain; expected to start at 7:15

Game Note: Phillies-Braves will be delayed due to rain; expected to start at 7:15

Top Projected Pitcher in Dangerous, But High Upside Spot

If anyone stands a decent chance of taking the NL Cy Young out of Sandy Alcantara’s hands, it’s probably Aaron Nola. He did not always excel at run prevention, but a lot of that can be blamed on the worst defense to make the post-season, which was also the second worst unit in baseball (-31 Runs Prevented). Nola recorded at least two seventh inning outs in 17 of his 32 starts this season, striking out 29.1% of the batters he faced, while walking just 3.6% with a 28.4 Z-O-Swing% and 31.6% hard hit rate. His 3.25 ERA was well above estimators ranging from a 2.58 FIP to a 2.80 SIERA. Ironically, he allowed at least four runs in three of his five starts against the Braves, but a total of just one in the other two. Nearly one-quarter (seven) of his 29 season walks were issued to them, along with five of his 19 home runs, though he also struck out 41 of 140 Braves and completed at least six innings in all three starts. A lot of strikeouts and home runs sounds like what the Braves have done to most right-handed pitching this year (108 wRC+, 25.1 K%, 16.0 HR/FB). Nola struck out six of 25 Cardinals with a single walk over 6.2 shutout innings in the Wild Card round. Nola is the most expensive pitcher on either site by $400. He is the top projected pitcher on the board and assuming the top projected value gets a pitch count adjustment, Nola would be the top projected value on either site.

You probably haven’t heard much about Shane Bieber’s velocity since April because it hasn’t been a problem. It’s even risen since early in the season, but remaining below previous years, he just reduced his fastball usage (it was his worst graded pitch via Statcast at 0.1 RV/100) and everything has worked out fine. Bieber finished the season allowing more than two runs in just two of his last 13 starts with at least seven outings in eight of those. He failed to produce six innings, only in his last start. Striking out exactly one-quarter of the batters he faced and walking just 4.6% with nearly half his contact on the ground (48.2%), an 89.9 mph EV didn’t hurt so much. There was a bit of a falter over the last month of the season, but a 13.0 SwStr% and .303 xwOBA suggest he pitched much better than results. His 2.88 ERA was a near perfect match for his FIP (2.87), but only more than one-third of a run below a 3.51 xERA. Two additional facets in his favor are that the Cleveland defense was fifth best in the league this year (14 Runs Prevented) and Austin Hedges was the fifth best defensive catcher (11.4 CDA, which is a counting stat). Bieber dominated the Rays, striking out eight of 26, allowing a single run and walk in his Wild Card start. The Yankees (114 wRC+, 22.4 K%, 9.9 BB% vs RHP, 119 wRC+, 16.8 HR/FB at home) are a different animal, though it’s not necessarily a park downgrade in terms of pure run environment. Bieber is the second most expensive pitcher on either site and assuming a major adjustment to Spencer Strider’s pitch count coming, would likely be the second best projected pitcher on the board, but a middle of the board (third or fourth) projected value.

Spencer Strider is great. He struck out an insane 38.3% of batters faced with a 79.1 Z-Contact% and allowed just 6.1% Barrels/BBE. All estimators were more than a quarter run below his 2.67 ERA, but he also hasn’t pitched since September 18th. What could we reasonably expect? Perhaps three innings? In three starts plus one relief appearance against the Phillies, Strider excelled (21.1 IP – 3 ER – 2 HR – 7 BB – 34 K – 79 BF), despite the fact that they pummeled sliders in the second half (0.32 wSL/C). Strider is third most expensive FanDuel pitcher ($10K), but only $6.5K on DraftKings, which almost makes him sort of interesting. Perhaps he’s been doing enough bullpen work to go four to five innings? We really don’t know yet. Projections which probably assuming nearly a full work load have him as the second best pitcher and top value on the board, but Strider is an enormous wild card today, while expectations probably need to be tempered.

Tonight's Top Projected Pitcher Has Everything Going for Him

Fourth most expensive on FanDuel, but over $1K less on DraftKings, all Zac Gallen did last time out was strike out 13 of 26 Dodgers and two hit them for eight innings. Since the start of his scoreless streak, nine starts back, Gallen has a 35.1 K% and 5.2 BB% with an 87.6 mph EV and just six barrels (4.8%), missing a Quality Start just a single time and by just two outs. With a .234 BABIP and 7.9 HR/FB, season estimators ranging from a 2.89 FIP to a 3.30 FIP are a bit above his 2.46 ERA. All four of his pitches grade -0.5 RV/100 or better by Statcast. He gets the Astros (108 wRC+, 20.4 K% vs RHP) in Houston, but it’s a negative run environment and they’ve been giving guys days off since clinching the division too. If he did it to the Dodgers, why can’t he repeat it against the Astros? Projections are not expecting him to. They see him as a middle of the board arm and bottom of the board value.

The top projected pitcher on the board is just the fifth most expensive one on FanDuel (fourth on DraftKings). An atrocious Philadelphia defense (-28 Runs Prevented) probably most contributes to a 3.28 ERA that’s at least four-tenths of a run above all of Aaron Nola’s estimators. The underlying numbers (28.7 K%, 3.8 BB%, 28.2 Z-O-Swing%, 31.5% 95+ mph EV) suggest that Nola may be your NL Cy Young. He’s completed at least seven innings with two or fewer runs 11 times this year. With his two best pitches being his four-seamer (33.2%, -1.2 RV/100, 23.8 Whiff%, wOBA & xwOBA below .280) and sinker (19.2%, -1.8 RV/100, wOBA & xwOBA below .260), this is a great matchup against the Cubs (97 wRC+, 23.7 K% vs RHP), who are the third worst offense in baseball against heaters since the break (-0.63 wFB/C). Weather and umpiring further favor Nola tonight, who is also the top projected value on FanDuel (second best on DraftKings).

Lastly, Julio Urias has gone 12 straight starts without allowing more than two runs. Of course, a .201 BABIP and 95.8 LOB% are completely unsustainable, but the point remains that he’s been really good. He’s struck out batters at an above average clip (24.4%) with great control (5.9 BB%) and an elite contact profile (86.7 mph EV, 6.3% Barrels/BBE, 30% 95+ mph EV). Estimators ranging from a 2.71 xERA to a 3.78 xFIP are pretty strong. He’s in a tough spot in San Diego (104 wRC+, 19.9 K% vs LHP), which is actually expecting some of the most hitter friendly weather on the slate, though it should still play as a negative run environment. Urias currently projects inside the top 10 on either site. Urias also projects as a bottom half of the board value.

At Least Seven Innings in 14 of Last 22 Starts

It’s a uniform 12 game slate across both sites tonight with ALL the high end pitching. In addition to the six $10K pitchers (two on DraftKings), another three exceed $9K on each site. That’s 37.5% of the board, starting with Aaron Nola as the most expensive arm on the board in Arizona. He struck out a season high 11 Reds in a shutout without a walk last time out and is up to a 25.1 K-BB% on the season without allowing a barrel (7.1%) in four starts. Nola has pitched at least seven innings in 14 of his last 22 starts, while his 3.08 ERA is still above estimators ranging from a 2.60 xERA to a 2.88 xFIP, mostly because the defense stinks (-24 Runs Prevented). The curveball (26.6%, -1.5 RV/100, 38.7 Whiff%) should have some success against Arizona (-0.44 wCB/C), who also struggle with RHP (93 wRC+, 21.4 K%), though this lineup has had some turnover and some of the younger bats are interesting. The top of the board is jammed with three arms essentially tied (within a point) of the top projection. Right behind them is Nola with the fourth best projection on the board. However, Nola merely projects as the 10th best value on the board. If there’s a chance you’re going to get 30% strikeout upside and potentially seven to eight innings in a good spot and this pitcher is going to be under-owned, Nola may be your guy tonight. For much more on every pitcher costing more than $9K on both sites, including the three arms projecting ahead of Nola tonight, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Everything Could Fall in Place For This Top Arm

Wednesday night’s seven game slate does not feature many weather issues, whether it be rain concerns or extreme conditions favoring either hitting or pitching. What it does feature is several extreme umpires in one direction or another. We’ll mention a few of those spots here, but you get access to all umpire ratings and assignments with a premium membership in Lineup HQ. Two pitchers reach the $10K price point tonight and each do so on both sites. Most expensively, Atlanta got him for four runs and two home runs, but Austin Nola struck out at least eight for the third straight starts and completed seven innings for the fifth straight time last time out. He’s running a 25.6 K-BB% with only 33.5% of his contact hit an exit velocity of 95 mph or above. The result is that while Nola has a 3.13 ERA, he doesn’t have a single estimator above three. Conditions are more neutral in Philadelphia tonight for his matchup with the Nationals, who don’t strike out much (20 K%), but also have little power (9.3 HR/FB) vs RHP. There are additional factors here that could play in Nola’s favor. While both Juan Soto and Nelson Cruz are in tonight’s projected lineup, both missed last night’s game due to nagging injuries. Their continued absence would further handicap an already power challenged offense. This is also a spot with an extremely pitcher friendly umpire. Nola is not only the top projected pitcher on the board, but a great projected value on either site. Unfortunately, this probably means he’ll also be extremely popular, but check back on ownership projections later in the day. For more analysis on top of the board pitching, check out Wednesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

High Upside Spot for Top DraftKings Arm

Thursday’s main slate includes seven games, starting an hour earlier on DraftKings, while FanDuel will stick to the normal start time with five. Two of the 10 available pitchers on FD cross the $10K barrier, while Aaron Nola costs exactly that much on DraftKings, as the most expensive pitcher on the seven game slate. Nola is the top projected pitcher and point per dollar value on the only site on which he is available with the earlier start. He has completed seven innings in four straight starts with a total of three runs allowed and also has at least seven innings of two run ball or better in eight of his last 12 starts. He’s struck out fewer than six just once over that span and just by one with a total of nine walks. His 25.7 K-BB% on the season, pushes all below, but within one-third of a run of his 2.98 ERA. He’s been good enough that projections suggest he can overcome difficult weather in a tough park against a dangerous offense (101 wRC+, 15.0 HR/FB vs RHP), though it’s a pitcher friendly umpire, while the Braves are predominantly right-handed with the highest strikeout rate split on the board against RHP (25.5%). There’s a very clear top of the board arm on FanDuel as well. For more on that and today’s other high priced pitchers, check out Thursday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Tonight's Top Projected Pitchers Cost Less Than $9K

Players should be comfortable paying down for pitching tonight because most of tonight’s most expensive arms are in difficult matchups or may simply be over-priced, but not too far down because all three of tonight’s top projected arms can be had for less than $9K on at least one major site tonight. Tonight’s top three projected pitchers by PlateIQ (projections subject to change) are Aaron Nola, Shohei Ohtani and Frankie Montas in that order, but without much of a gap. Where the fairly sizeable gap exists is between those three and the rest of the board. Unsurprisingly, this also makes these three pitchers pretty strongly projected point per dollar values too. Especially on DraftKings, where they are the three top projected values costing more than the minimum tonight. Nola and Montas are the top projected values costing more than $6K on FanDuel tonight too. For much more concerning tonight’s top projected pitching values, check out Thursday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Mid-Range Arms Project Very Strongly on Tuesday

Tuesday night’s slate includes a very deep pitching board that finds several mid-range arms projected above higher priced pitching tonight and that’s not a slight on the higher priced arms at all. Aaron Nola, Robbie Ray, Alex Wood, Carlos Carrasco and Corey Kluber are all projected as well or better than top priced pitchers tonight. In fairness, Nola falls just shy of the $10K mark on FD and $9K mark on DK. With an extremely efficient 26.6 K-BB% through six starts, Nola has registered three straight quality starts. The 90 mph EV and 9.8% Barrels/BBE are a touch high, but not disastrous in concert with his other numbers. In fact, all non-FIP estimators (21.4 HR/FB) are more than three-quarters of a run below his 3.38 ERA and that includes a 2.61 xERA. He gets a significant park upgrade, but the Mariners own a 114 wRC+ with a 21.5 K% vs RHP. As the second best projected pitcher on the board, Nola doesn’t project for extremely high ownership, but there are certainly plenty of other options should players wish to fade him in this spot. For more on some well-regarded pitchers with mid-range price tags, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.