Joe Ross Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

While the good news is that there are a few viable top of the board arms on a seven game slate, the bad news is that it’s slim pickings below that. The resurgent Joe Ross might be the exception in the upside department. Ross has a 30.3 K% and 27.3 K-BB% over his last five starts, though his 11.6 SwStr% over this span isn’t up much from his 11.3 SwStr% on the season. However, a 17.1 K-BB% and 87.6 mph EV has generated a season 4.02 SIERA that perfectly matches his ERA. While all other estimators are higher than that, his none are more than one half run so. His also average his highest single game velocities of the season in his last two starts. The downside is a difficult park in Philadelphia and while the Phillies have just an 89 wRC+ vs RHP, they do have fairly marginal strikeout rates. However, Ross’s cost at less than $8K on either site could make him a top value tonight.

We also have a few lower strikeout guys who generally pitch deep into games. Of that group (Dallas Keuchel, Kyle Hendricks, Wade Miley), Miley may be the most useful. While his 2.72 ERA is well below estimators (79.3 LOB%, 8.9 HR/FB), he has had great control (6.6%) with 51.8% of his contact on the ground and misses enough bats (19.8 K%) to be effective. Add in a superb contact profile on top of that (85.3 mph EV, 5.8% Barrrels/BBE) and you find a 3.60 xERA that’s not far off from a 3.74 xFIP in confirming that he’s been a quality arm if not quite an All-Star performer. He’s also recorded seventh inning outs in six of his last seven starts. The Cubs have a 99 wRC+ and 25.6 K% vs LHP this year, while Wrigley is expected to play fairly neutrally tonight. Wade costs $1K less on DraftKings ($8.6K), but carries decent quality start potential.

The only other considerations on this slate in an SP2 spot for less than S7K are in Minnesota. Michael Pineda is facing the Tigers (93 wRC+, 26.1 K% vs RHP) at home, but you’d be looking for a better performance from Pineda than he’s been giving recently and a worse one than recently from the Tigers (125 wRC+ last seven days). Pineda’s struck out just 11 of 100 batters in five starts since the beginning of June with a 92.2 mph EV and his velocity has been trending significantly downward. Estimators range from a 4.26 xFIP to a 5.16 xERA. The projected Detroit lineup includes just two batters below a 23 K% vs RHP this year though. Facing Pineda is Matt Manning. Coming off the best performance of his six start career, he still struck out only four of 23 Rangers. He’ll be looking to prove it wasn’t just a fluke against a lifeless offense, as he carries a 10.5 K% (7.1 SwStr%) with a 4.80 FIP (9.1 HR/FB) his only estimator below five into Minnesota. You’d be betting on pedigree over performance. However, he does cost less than $6K and the projected Twins lineup includes five batters above a 28 K% vs RHP this season.

High upside spots not belonging to $10K pitchers include Chase De Jong (at Rockies), James Kaprielian (vs Rangers), Jean Carlos Mejia (vs Tigers), Joe Ross (vs Rays), Kenta Maeda (vs White Sox), Tylor Megill (vs Braves), Vince Velasquez (vs Marlins) and Zach Davies (vs Brewers). We can eliminate several of those pitchers immediately. De Jong has allowed five home runs in five starts with a 10.5 BB%, 25.7 GB% and 91 mph EV. He is not a candidate at Coors. Mejia has a 19.5 K% and 7.4 SwStr% over his five June starts with estimators around four and a .367 xwOBA this month. He’s also unlikely to pitch deep into the game. Velasquez has as many runs allowed as strikeouts over his last five starts (19 each). With a 13.3 BB%, 35.8 GB%, 90.6 mph EV and 10.7% Barrels/BBE accompanying a dropping strikeout rate, he no longer has a single estimator below four and a half. We probably don’t want that profile in that park right now. Davies has just a 2.3 K-BB% on the season with a 4.60 FIP (7.8 HR/FB) his only estimators below five. So, who’s left?

Megill was rushed to the majors when every one of the Met starters went on the IL at the same time. (Just a small exaggeration.) The 25 year-old is not an extremely well-regarded prospect, but did strike out 17 of 60 at AAA this year after striking out 42 of 104 at AA, so maybe there’s something that was missed in his development last year. He went through the Atlanta order twice in his debut, striking out four with just a 6.5 SwStr%, but 58.3 GB%. This is also a significant park downgrade for him. The Braves do strike out a quarter of the time at home and vs RHP though and Megill does cost just $4.9K on DraftKIngs. Velocity was up a bit in Kenta Maeda’s second start back from the IL, though results continue to be marginal. The only positive is a 6.5 BB%. While the 4.85 ERA could be partially blamed on a .325 BABIP and 20.4 HR/FB with 11 of 13 barrels (8.1%) leaving the yard, he doesn’t have an estimators below four this year. The caveat here is that if he’s healthy, he’s too cheap ($7K). Five of nine batters projected for the White Sox exceed a 27 K% vs RHP since 2020.

Kaprielian and Ross may be the top two middle of the board guys in great spots. Kaprielian has a 25.7 K% and 2.86 ERA through eight starts. A 10.6 BB% and 92.4 mph EV both leave something to be desired, but if he’s only going to generate 35.7% of his contact on the ground, he is calling the right park home. A 3.79 xERA is his best estimator. Five of nine projected Rangers exceed a 27 K% vs RHP. Ross has allowed four or more earned runs in four of his 14 starts, but two runs or fewer in the other 10. An encouraging sign is a 27 K% and 12.3 SwStr% over his last five starts with just an 86.6 mph EV. His 4.12 ERA is within one-third of a run of all his non-FIP estimators. The Rays lose the DH in Washington, while six of the eight projected batters exceed a 27 K% vs RHP. Ross hast thrown at least seven shutout innings with eight strikeouts twice this month and he has a great shot at repeating at least the strikeout portion of those performances here.

Joe Ross and Nick Pivetta are the third and fourth most expensive pitchers on DraftKings at $9.6K and $9.5K respectively and both have high upside road matchups in Florida. Ross is in Miami (91 wRC+, 25.2 K% vs RHP) and Pivetta is in Tampa Bay (108 wRC+, but 26.2 K% vs RHP). Both have major drawbacks as well too. Ross has seven starts with two runs or less, but six with four or more and has only struck out more than five three times. The overall numbers are really marginal with a 4.54 ERA, 4.51 xFIP and 4.50 xERA, but you never know how he’ll get there from start to start, which gives him some value on this slate. Perhaps more so on FanDuel just $7.4K. He does have a 25.7 K% and 13.2 SwStr% over the last month. Pivetta has the second best strikeout rate on the board (27%), but with a slightly below average 10.7 SwStr% and 11.3 BB%. Over his last three games, he has a 36.4 GB% and 92.2 mph EV, which has led to six home runs, but four of those came in one start against the Blue Jays. For the season, all estimators are within one-third of a run of his 4.36 ERA. This is all scary. He could get blown up, but you have to consider the strikeout upside in this spot in GPPs.

If you absolutely need a low priced SP2 on DraftKings, Cody Poteet ($7.1K) now only has one estimator below four and a half (4.00 xERA), but in a negative run environment, he faces a Washington offense with a 93 wRC+ vs RHP. They also have a 135 wRC+ and 21.6 HR/FB over the last week though. Carlos Martinez ($6.3K) has allowed 25 runs (all earned) over his last 13.2 innings. For the season, estimators are all below a 6.62 ERA (55 LOB%), but only his FIP (4.51) is below five. None of this is good, of course, but he does face the Pirates (84 wRC+, 8.9 HR/FB vs RHP) at home. Lastly, the Orioles have a 114 wRC+ vs LHP, but Anthony Kay costs the minimum with a 24.5 K%, 50 GB% and 86.3 mph EV. He’s allowed more home runs (five) than barrels (four). He could go through the order twice and has thrown as many as 91 pitches in a start this season. There are no easy SP2 choices tonight.

Joe Ross has allowed just a single run over his last 18 innings without a HR, but nine walks to just 11 strikeouts. He’s been stranding runners and suppressing BABIP to gain these results against three well below average offenses vs RHP this year (Diamondbacks, Giants, Reds). His 7.2 K-BB% in 42.2 IP this season, just does not get it done. And his 3.21 ERA since moving back into the rotation over the last 30 days is met with a 5.07 SIERA, though his .326 xwOBA over that span is league average. He has managed contact well this season. In fact, his 86.8 mph aEV is best on the board tonight. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .335 wOBA and xwOBA against Ross since returning from injury last September with LHBs sitting on a .383 wOBA/.370 xwOBA over that span. While the Pirates don’t have a lot of left-handed (or overall) power, tonight’s projected lineup does include a few quality lefties in the upper half of the order. Adam Frazier (105 wRC+, .159 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) should be a great value from the leadoff spot for just $3.5K on DraftKings ($2.8K FanDuel), while Bryan Reynolds (158 wRC+, .210 ISO) and Josh Bell (154 wRC+, .312 ISO) have each hammered RHP. Starling Marte (123 wRC+, .200 ISO) is swinging a hot bat (217 wRC+ last seven days) and should be a worthwhile inclusion from the right side of the plate in any stacks. A 4.61 implied run line actually has the Pirates slightly closer to the bottom of the board than the top, but Ross’s recent results would not appear to be sustainable over a longer run and the line appears to be moving in Pittsburgh’s direction in this game.

Joe Ross has been hammered for 17 runs over his last four appearances (12 IP), but has struck out 13 of his last 49 batters. He may not be as bad as his 9.85 ERA, but his underlying metrics are still terrible (5.90 FIP, 6.46 DRA, .424 xwOBA, 11.8% Barrels/BBE, 47.1% 95+ mph EV), through 24.2 innings. Since his return from injury last September, batters from either side of the plate have hammered for a wOBA and xwOBA above .380. It’s not a large sample, but Ross has shown few signs that he’s fit to pitch at the major league level. Even a below average Jarrod Dyson (83 wRC+, .120 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has some value in the leadoff spot here. Strangely, though, the best bat in the lineup (David Peralta 141 wRC+, .143 ISO) is only the fourth highest priced on Draftkings ($4K). While the Diamondbacks are implied for a healthy 5.34 runs tonight, there are still eight teams with a higher total. They are generally a below average offense vs RHP (91 wRC+, 13.6 HR/FB), but this lineup has rarely been at full strength this season, which it appears to be now. Eduardo Escobar (93 wRC+, .209 ISO) and Ketel Marte (122 wRC+, .198 ISO) are the most expensive bats in the lineup, but project strongly too.

At 6.07 implied runs, no other offense even comes close to the Rockies tonight. Only two more are even above five runs. Joe Ross makes his third start of the season and is trailed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball in the second half of the season. Ross has a nearly 100 point career split (LHBs .362 wOBA, RHBs .271 wOBA), which emphasizes LHBs for the Rockies yet again this week. Charlie Blackmon (117 wRC+, .220 ISO) and David Dahl (138 wRC+, .302 ISO) have been the top bats against RHP this year. Nolan Arenado (96 wRC+, .193 ISO), Trevor Story (108 wRC+, .237 ISO) and Carlos Gonzalez (104 wRC+, .197 ISO) all project fairly well in this environment as well.

The Marlins (5.84 FIP, 8.4 K-BB%) and Rangers (5.31 FIP, 7.1 K-BB%) are the only two bullpens in baseball above a five FIP over the last month. Both are in very pitcher friendly parks tonight with Jose Urena at NY (NL) and Martin Perez in Seattle. Each team does have some bats who may be worth rostering tonight. The Nationals (4.98 FIP, 9.2 K-BB%) haven't been much better and Joe Ross makes just his third start at Coors. Tonight's pitchers averaging less than five innings per start include Chase De Jong, Corey Oswalt, Brian Johnson, Eric Lauer and Jaime Barria. De Jong is at home in the second game of a double-header against the White Sox, backed by a bullpen with a 4.51 FIP and 10.6 K-BB% over the last month. The Met bullpen has been much improved over the last 30 days (3.73 FIP, 15.9 K-BB%) and face the Marlins. The Boston bullpen has been very average (4.25 FIP, 13.3 K-BB%) and run up against the Yankees at Fenway. The Padres (3.12 FIP, 21.7 K-BB%) are not a bullpen to trifle with. The Angels (4.09 FIP, 9.6 K-BB%) take their poor peripherals up against the A's.

Joe Ross makes his first start of the season after Tommy John surgery. Behind him, the Washington bullpen has a FIP above six over the last 30 days. As a consequence, the Cubs (5.01) are one of just five teams on the slate above five implied runs. Ross has a massive career splits with LHBs (.364) just shy of 100 points above RHBs against him. The difference is eight points by K-BB% and 13 by GB%. Each of the four LHBs for the Cubs have at least a 125 wRC+ and .175 ISO vs RHP this year with Ben Zobrist (137 wRC+, .175 ISO) the only one below a .200 ISO as well. Not exactly cheap and Kyle Schwarber (125 wRC+, .277 ISO) bats sixth, but play your LH Cubbies in this spot.

There are now two bullpens above a six FIP over the last month. By that metric, the Nationals (6.20) are barely worse than the Orioles (6.19), but by K-BB, they're still much better (11% to 4.7%). Joe Ross makes his first start of the season for the Nationals against the Cubs. The Orioles send out Dylan Bundy in Tampa Bay. Opportunity exists to attack both these bullpens tonight. While there is not another bullpen in the majors above even a five FIP over the last month, the Cardinals (4.73 FIP) have a 4.4 K-BB% that's even worse than the Orioles. Rookie Austin Gomber is in Detroit though, and has gone at least six innings in three of his last four starts. Potentially light workloads that players should also be aware of are Stephen Gonsalves, averaging less than four innings per start. The Twins have a 4.98 FIP (12.4 K-BB%) over the last month, but the Royals as opponents. Daniel Norris is just in his second start back from the DL. The Tigers have a 4.56 FIP and 13.5 K-BB% over the last week in a tough spot against the Cardinals. Neither Brett Kennedy nor Felix Pena have gone very deep into their starts. The San Diego bullpen is a deterrent (3.46 FIP, 20.5 K-BB%). The Angels (4.27 FIP, 12.2 K-BB%) face the White Sox in Chicago.

Joe Ross has a 15.6 K-BB% that's actually a bit above his 14.9% career rate this season. He's a two pitch pitcher (sinker, slider) that generally keeps RHBs grounded (53.9 GB%, 24.2 Hard% career prior to 2017) while being punished by LHBs (.366 wOBA, 37.4 GB%, 36.6 Hard% career). However, this year, RHBs are similarly torching him for a .386 wOBA with just a 33.3 GB% and 38.2 Hard%. He's throwing the same two pitches 90% of the time, though with a bit of a smaller velocity gap and perhaps less vertical movement on the slider, but let's use the new PlateIQ matchup to explore this matchup against the Orioles further. Interestingly, it shows us that neither Seth Smith nor Chris Davis have had much success against sinker/slider combos this year, but that's considering pitchers of either arm side and both have been about league average against those pitches in recent years. When we look at Ross's pitch map, he usually uses both sides of the plate effectively to keep RHBs uncomfortable, but this season seems to be burying everything inside and middle (13%). Looking at the Baltimore lineup, we find that the middle of their order (Adam Jones, Manny Machado - may not play tonight, and Mark Trumbo) have had success against that combination of pitches in those areas this season, though Jonathan Schoop likes pitches a bit more outside. Switching to the last two seasons, shows Schoop a bit more proficient against those pitches and location along with Jones and Trumbo, while Machado drops back a bit towards league average. What does that mean? Perhaps that we shouldn't look to Ross to regain his prior form in this matchup, less some adjustment we're not aware of and it may be that a Baltimore offense projected for just 4.3 runs is worth your investment.