Matt Garza Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Brad Miller has homered four times against Rick Porcello with a 94.8 mph aEV (14 BBEs). One of those was in Porcello's only start against the Rays this year in which he allowed four HRs, but Miller seems to see the ball fairly well with six extra-base hits in 25 total PAs as the two face each other frequently in the same division. Miller has struck out seven times, but the quality of contact seems to hold some merit here. Jay Bruce has homered three times against Matt Garza (90.9 mph aEV on seven BBEs) with seven extra-base hits in 33 PAs in a matchup that goes back a few years with both players being based in the NL Central. Edwin Encarnacion has homered three times in 34 PAs against Ervin Santana with a 98.9 mph aEV on just six Statcast recorded BBEs. Among players with at least 10 BBEs against tonight's opposing pitcher, Anthony Rizzo has the highest aEV (97.2 mph, 18 BBEs) against Mike Leake, though he has homered just twice in 44 PAs. Going back to Rick Porcello, Evan Longoria has the most Statcast recorded BBEs (22) against tonight's opponent and the second highest aEV (96.7 mph) among those with at least 10 BBEs, though he has struck out 13 times with just one HR in 51 career PAs with two walks.

Matt Garza has been surprisingly solid lately, especially against right-handed batters, with an 18.1% strikeout rate, 5.8% walk rate and 57.9% ground ball rate. There is certainly plenty of reason to use some of the top Rangers right-handed batters like Jonathan Lucroy, Ian Desmond, Carlos Gomez or Adrian Beltre, as it’s not a stretch to think Garza could regress quickly and drastically, and the Brewers bullpen is mediocre at best. But from a pure skill set and matchup perspective, we should be looking at the left-handed bats here, as Garza’s strikeouts drop to 12.4% and his ground balls drop to 51.9% with a bump in his hard hit rate. Carlos Beltran (111 wRC+, .340 wOBA, .203 ISO vs RHP) and Rougned Odor (110 wRC+, .342 wOBA, .243 ISO vs RHP) would be the top plays for cash games, while Nomar Mazara (113 wRC+, .346 wOBA, .192 ISO vs RHP) and Mitch Moreland (.195 ISO vs RHP) are more than viable in tournaments or as part of a Rangers stack.

Matt Garza has followed up striking out 17 of 53 batters, by striking out just eight of his last 46, allowing a HR in each of his last four starts and getting blown up by the Reds, though only one of his five runs were earned. Pittsburgh is the hottest offense in the majors (141 wRC+, 2.7 K-BB%, 17.6 HR/FB last seven days). LHBs have thumped Garza since last season (.368 wOBA), while RHBs haven't done badly either (.329 wOBA) and both have a hard hit rate a bit above 33%. In a much more favorable park than their home, there is some great value atop the Pittsburgh lineup tonight. Josh Bell (145 wRC+, .173 ISO vs RHP) costs $3.2K or less on either site, while Adam Frazier (125 wRC+, .161 ISO vs RHP) costs just $2.2K on FanDuel. While other Pirate bats are more much more expensive, only Jung-Ho Kang has been significantly above average vs RHP this year (143 wRC+, .279 ISO).

Matt Garza presents an interesting dilemma. He's been a terrible pitcher for well over a year now. LHBs have a .365 wOBA against him, while batters from either side have hit the ball hard over one-third of the time on batted balls since last season. Considering that, Joey Votto (165 wRC+, .238 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is one of the top plays on the board at home, while Scott Schebler (105 wRC+, .184 ISO vs RHP since 2015) represents great value at just above $3K on either site. Even Adam Duvall (112 wrC+, .278 ISO vs RHP since 2015) deserves some attention for less than $4K on DraftKings and over $1K less on FanDuel. However, Garza has struck out 22 of his last 75 batters with slightly increasing velocity over his last three starts, so perhaps we should tread more carefully, although he has allowed a HR in each of his last three starts with a hard hit rate above 40% in two of the three.

Matt Garza has struck out 17 of his last 53 batters with a 3.67 ERA over the last month, but estimators still nearly a run higher. The lean here is still towards the Cubs as batters from either side have a wOBA above .330, making hard contact over one-third of the time since last season, but LHBs have really torched him (.367 wOBA, 34.8 Hard%). Anthony Rizzo (151 wRC+, .266 ISO vs RHP since 2015) may be one of tonight's top overall bats. He's also only one of two bats in this lineup with a wRC+ above 100 over the last week (144). While nearly all bats project as playable in this matchup, Chris Coghlan (102 wRC+, .183 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is by far the cheapest on DraftKings ($2.7K), while Addison Russell (101 wRC+, .155 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs just $2.6K on FanDuel. Kris Bryant (146 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP career) is also a top overall bat at eligible positions, as he normally is.

Matt Carpenter will face Matt Garza tonight, a pitcher who is only whiffing 12% of left-handed bats on the season. Matt Carpenter's 0.290 ISO versus RHP leaves DFS players salivating, and his 18% strikeout percentage against righties is plenty respectable. Tonight, Carpenter should have an even better chance of making contact, considering Garza's inability to put LHB away. For anyone stacking Cardinals tonight, Brandon Moss is the second most interesting Cardinal, holding a 146 wRC+ total on the season in at-bats versus RHP. Moss too will benefit greatly from the matchup against Garza tonight, helping to lessen Moss’s strikeout risk, considering he has a 30% strikeout rate against RHPs on the season. Jedd Gyorko is also worth noting, seeing that he has a 136 wRC+ against RHP on the year and will bat 2nd for the Cards tonight.

Left-handed batters are the ideal way to attack Matt Garza, unfortunately that is something that this Pirates almost lacks almost entirely, as Josh Bell and Gregory Polanco (122 wRC+, .352 wOBA, .218 ISO vs RHP) are the only lefties to crack the Pittsburgh lineup tonight. Garza has struggled getting strikeouts this season especially (12.3% K%), but his strength has been keeping the ball on the ground (53.9%). Outside the Pirates lefties as one offs, this is a clear stack or fade situation in tournaments since Garza hasn't been beaten by the long ball very often, even in starts where he is blown up. However, the Pirates have hitters with good reverse splits, and may go under owned in a righty-righty matchup. Not to the extent of lefty-lefty, obviously, but still we see the masses really searching for platoon advantage batters. The batters who really stand out are Starling Marte (120 wRC+, .349 wOBA) and Andrew McCutchen (163 ISO vs RHP).

The absence of Jake Lamb will surely hurt an Arizona lineup that otherwise has no strong LH bats, but the good news is that RHBs have a .354 wOBA and 34.3 Hard% against Garza since last season. Paul Goldschmidt (145 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is strangely $4.6K or less in a good spot. Phil Gosselin is just an average hitter (111 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015), but has some value in the 2nd spot for the minimum price on FanDuel. Jean Segura and Brandon Drury are the only other close to league average bats against RHP, but a high price tag or low lineup spot diminish value greatly on either one of those guys.

The new version of Matt Garza is a pitcher that doesn't strike anyone out (12.8% K%), walks a tad too many batters (7.4% BB%), and allows a massive amount of hard contact (38.8% Hard %). This is a great spot to stack the Pirates in tournaments and they may go overlooked with all the other high totals on the slate. Every bat in the top half of the order or so is a more than viable option in tournaments as well. Gregory Polanco (137 wRC+, .372 wOBA, .220 ISO vs RHP), Starling Marte (136 wRC+, .371 wOBA, .162 ISO vs RHP), and Andrew McCutchen (127 wRC+, .353 wOBA, .186 ISO vs RHP) stand out as the high-upside options to force into our stacks or just sprinkle an individual bat or two in lineups from this matchup. Adam Frazier (119 wRC+, .345 wOBA, .231 ISO vs RHP) gets the bump to lead off spot and has to be considered given his relatively inexpensive price tag at the desolate SS position.

The Reds start this afternoon with the top run projection on the board, coming at a modest 4.93 runs. It's rare that we don't see a single offense projected for more than five runs and especially strange to see the Reds (82 wRC+ at home, 78 wRC+ vs RHP) on top, but that goes to show you have bad Garza has been. Batters from both sides have a wOBA exceeding .350 against him since last season. This is a lineup players will probably want at least some exposure to, even at higher prices, with four of the top five bats in the order costing $4.3K or more on DraftKings, while Adam Duvall (117 wRC+, .320 ISO vs RHP since 2015) being the potential bargain at $3K on FanDuel. The remainder of the lineup comes in at $3.6K or less on either site. With a significant history against Garza, Jay Bruce (124 wRC+, .294 ISO vs RHP this season) has had the most success with seven extra-base hits, inlcuding three HRs in 35 PAs, but also with nine strikeouts. Joey Votto (158 wRC+, .227 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is one of the top overall bats tonight and probably still a decent value at a higher cost.