Jeremy Hellickson Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The Padres have a nice matchup vs. Jeremy Hellickson on Sunday, who through 19 innings has a 5.81 xFIP, 0 K-BB% and a .349 xwOBA. Since 2017, Hellickson has a .342 xwOBA and has been mostly platoon neutral. Greg Garcia will hit 2nd for the Padres, costs just $3.3k on Draftkings and is a career 100 wRC+, .318 xwOBA hitter. Manny Machado’s price has fallen to just $3.9k on Draftkings, too cheap given he is a career 120 wRC+ hitter vs. RHP batting 3rd and could go off any game now despite early season struggles. Eric Hosmer is in the 5 spot in the order and just $3.6k. He has also had early season struggles, but has started to swing it better with a .316 xwOBA over the last 10 days. Fernando Tatis Jr. is also an intriguing option in the leadoff spot. He isn’t cheap at $4.4k, but has shown plenty of upside in a great rookie campaign with a 135 wRC+ and 5 steals. Wil Myers is also a solid option at $4.3k batting 4th, he has a 112 wRC+ on the year, however he has slumped a bit over the last 10 days with just a .187 xwOBA.

If content with tonight's high end offerings, DraftKings players can pair one with Eric Lauer against the Mets (76 wRC+, 26.1 K%, 8.0 HR/FB vs LHP) for $4K and be done, but one of tonight's potential top values on DraftKings tonight is opposing Lauer for just $7.7K. Zack Wheeler has pitched into the seventh inning in four of five starts, failing to complete six innings in just one of the six before that by a single out. He has a 25.5 K% and 13.6 SwStr% over the last month along with the lowest aEV on the board for the season (85.1 mph). On top of all that, he’s in a great park against a terrible offense (70 wRC+, 19.8 K-BB% on the road, 80 wRC+, 18.1 K-BB% vs RHP). Felix Pena's 91.1 mph aEV is easily the highest on the board, but he's struck out 30 of 100 batters faced as a starter and costs $5.5K on DraftKings ($7.1K on FanDuel) against the White Sox (18.7 K-BB% on the road and 18.9 K-BB% vs RHP). Jeremy Hellickson (19.5 K%, 3.94 SIERA, .330 xwOBA) costs around $6.5K in a matchup with some upside (Brewers 25.2 K% at home and vs RHP), but isn’t likely to go very deep into the game. Masahiro Tanaka is a high upside pitcher (13.8 SwStr%) for less than $9K with a nice park upgrade against a low power Rays' offense, which should help with his home run issues.

Not of fan of paying an exorbitant price for pitching tonight? Ground ballers and contact managers comprise many of the other options. Garrett Richards (27.7 K%) has the highest strikeout rate of the non-$10K pitchers and the only one even above 25% otherwise. He's not in an ideal spot against a Seattle offense with a 106 wRC+ and 20.2 K% vs RHP, but he's had success against them this year (four ERs in 14 innings, striking out 18 of 53 batters) costs around $8.5K. Miles Mikolas misses $10K by $100 on DraftKings and has just a 13.4 K% over the last month, but has failed to complete six innings just three times this year and his 85.5 mph aEV is best on the board for those with more than six starts. He's in a great spot to increase his strikeouts against the White Sox (19.3 K-BB% at home, 19 K-BB% vs RHP). Joe Musgrove offers an average strikeout rate (20.3%) with only two pitchers with more than six starts beating his .295 xwOBA or 86.5 mph aEV. He costs $7.5K against the Nationals. Jeremy Hellickson was blasted by the Marlins last time out, but has been essentially league average (3.93 SIERA) even with that start, which may have been the product of illness, announced prior to that start. He now costs just $6K on FanDuel against the Pirates. Mike Leake and Marcus Stroman allow a lot of hard contact and both struggled last time out, but Leake has been regularly pitching deep into games with improvements in contact management recently, while Stroman did look better in his first two starts off the DL. When right, he'll offer an elite ground ball rate with league average strikeouts for less than $7K. Leake costs just $5.9K on DraftKings. Jose Quintana hasn't been pitching well (six HRs, 12 walks and just 17 strikeouts last four starts), but is in a nice spot in San Francisco for $7.2K on FanDuel. Rich Hill can't support his 24.4 K% with a 7.8 SwStr% and has only been above 8.2% once since his first start, but he gets the Padres tonight (16.9 K-BB% vs LHP) and has just an 86.6 mph aEV.

Justin Verlander is the best pitcher on the board by far. Aside from Johnny Cueto, fresh off a two plus month stay on the disabled list, he's at least $4.5K more expensive than any other pitcher on FanDuel and over $5K more than anyone else on DraftKings. No pitcher on the slate with more than five starts this season is within 10 points of his 31.2 K%, half a run of his 3.02 SIERA or 50 points of his .247 xwOBA. Find a way to pay up for Verlander at home in the most negative run environment in baseball against the White Sox (18.4 K-BB% vs RHP). There are otherwise still some interesting arms on the board at their current prices. Marco Gonzales is second behind Verlander with a 21.2 K% and 3.68 SIERA. He's failed to complete six innings in just two of his last 13 starts and once by a single out. The Angels have just a 10.5 K-BB% vs LHP with a predominantly right-handed lineup, but also just a 93 wRC+ and 12.1 HR/FB against them. Gonzales costs $7.3K on either site in a great park in Seattle. Max Fried struck out 11 of 25 Cardinals in his second start of the season and had a 14.6 K-BB% in nine AAA starts this season. He's a decently regarded prospect with a 50 Future Value grade (Fangraphs). He costs just $5.9K on FanDuel against a Milwaukee team with an 81 wRC+ vs LHP, though that seems strange considering their 10.8 K-BB% and 14.8 HR/FB against them. The Brewers do have a team 26.4 K% over the last week. Luke Weaver has allowed at least four runs in four of his last five starts and has an ERA above five on the season now. However, he has a league average strikeout rate (20.9% - third best) and the second lowest aEV on the board (86.5 mph) among those with more than five starts and a great park in San Francisco tonight against an offense with a 16.0 K-BB% vs RHP this year. It's not a comfortable fit, but it's a reasonable one for a price less than $8K, though don't expect the six innings necessary for a quality start on FanDuel (just four times this year). Jeremy Hellickson wasn't very good in his return from a month on the DL and rarely goes through the order a third time, but he has a 20.3 K%, 3.79 SIERA and .325 xwOBA all very much in line with those fighting for second behind Verlander and costs $7.7K or less against the Marlins (sub-90 wRC+ and 16+ K-BB% on the road and vs RHP). Shelby Miller has allowed 11 runs (three HRs) in 8.2 innings since returning from TJ surgery. However, he's also struck out 11 of 44 batters (though with just a 7.2 SwStr%) and costs less than $7K against the Padres (70 wRC+, 20 K-BB% on the road, 82 wRC+, 25.8 K% vs RHP).

If high cost pitching comes with some problems tonight (which is not to say they're not worthy of rostering), what do the mid and low cost ranges offer tonight? To start with, Tyson Ross has gone at least six innings in all but one start and has struck out a quarter of the batters he's faced. That would appear to be the floor at home against the Marlins (77 wRC+, 16.8 K-BB% vs RHP). He's not far from the top of the board, but well below $9K on FanDuel. Jake Arrieta decided to throw more sliders in his last start and struck out more than five for just the second time this season. It's good to see he can still do that on occasion and he may be worth for $7.5K on DraftKings, should he decide to do that again in LA (NL). Jeremy Hellickson has pitched to 22 batters or fewer in every start and has gone beyond 75 in just one of his last five, but his overall work has been quality and he costs a reasonable $6.5K on FanDuel in a matchup with some upside in Baltimore. Luis Castillo has increased his strikeout rate to 26.3% over the last month, but his swinging strike rate continues to shoot up and is the highest on the board over this span (16.3%). After allowing no fewer than three runs in any of his first six starts, he hasn’t allowed that many in any of his five May starts, in which he's more than doubled his K-BB%. Nick Kingham's underlying numbers are all over the place through three starts and his 30.4 K% is suspect (11.1 SwStr%), but that's not to say there's no upside at a reasonable price. At the bottom end of the board there appear to be maybe two pitchers considered rosterable, both with massive contact authority concerns. Dan Straily and Danny Duffy are the only pitchers on the board above a .400 xwOBA, but Straily has some upside in his 17 K% with a 10 SwStr% and is pitching in San Diego (26.6 K% vs RHP). Duffy pitched perhaps his best game of the season Texas last time out and costs the minimum on DK against the Twins (25.1 K% vs LHP), though they do have Miguel Sano back.

Gerrit Cole (40.8 K%, 16 SwStr%, .255 xwOBA) and Chris Sale (34.9 K%, 16.2 SwStr%, .254 xwOBA) appear nearly interchangeable atop tonight's board. They're opponents each have a nearly identical 2.7 implied run line at the bottom of the board. Both are pitching in dome capable stadiums without weather concerns in negative run environments. Potential lineup surprises, an extreme umpire assignment and ownership projections (all three available to premium subscribers) would seem to make the difference tonight. The Rays have had some success against pitchers who feature fastballs and curveballs. Sale features sliders and changeups nearly half the time, two pitches the Rays, as a team, have had less success against via Fangraphs weighted pitch metrics. Cole has failed to pitch into the seventh inning for the first two times this season in his last two starts, but has remained consistent in his pitch counts. The Giants are not pushovers (104 wRC+, 23.2 Hard-Soft% vs RHP), but also have an 18.3 K-BB% vs RHP. Quite a bit behind those two is Trevor Bauer. His 27.2 K% this season is just outside the top five on tonight’s board, but improvements in contact management this season have driven him to a .290 xwOBA that ties for third. He’s gotten at least two outs in the seventh in six of his nine starts this year. The Cubs (10.7 K-BB% vs RHP) at Wrigley may be one of the toughest matchups on the board tonight. Other interesting arms include Trevor Cahill, who struck out just one Boston batter in his last start, but has struck out 20 in 12 innings at home this season and has the second best SwStr rate (14.7%) on the board. Jeremy Hellickson has doubled up on his curveball usage (24%) and has a career high 21.5 K% with a .296 xwOBA. Zack Wheeler has added a splitter that's been as inconsistent as he's been, but he has at least seven strikeouts in three of his last four and his best start of the season (7 IP - 2 H - 1 ER - 7 K) against the team he faces tonight (Marlins). Each of the last three pitchers cost between $7-8K on either site tonight. At the bottom of the board, Brock Stewart has elite strikeout rates in the minors that he's failed to reach in the majors and may be lucky to complete five innings, but he's near minimum price with the best park adjusted matchup on the board (Rockies 63 wRC+, 24.1 K% vs RHP). Brandon McCarthy rode increased velocity and 50% cutters to a season high eight strikeouts last time ou t and is in another high strikeout upside spot in Philadelphia (26.7 K% vs RHP) tonight. Caleb Smith may not be able to sustain his 30+% strikeout rate (10.6 SwStr% last 30 days), but faces a Mets' offense (69 wRC+, 26.7 K%, 6.0 HR/FB vs LHP) with much of their right-handed power disabled at the moment.

The Pirates @ Nationals is one of two games on the afternoon slate with both teams above a 4.5 implied run line (no team is above five). The Bucs are resting a couple of their middle of the order bats (Bell, Cervelli) against a pitcher (Jeremy Hellickson), who rarely misses bats anymore. He has generated some of the weakest contact on the board through three starts though (84.7 mph aEV, 19.4% 95+ mph EV), but did allow 35 home runs last year and two so far this season in 15.1 innings. His xwOBA is above .340 against batters from either side. The wind is forecasted to be blowing out at around 15 mph to center, a slight boost for hitters. The top Pirate bats against RHP are Corey Dickerson (117 wRC+, .222 ISO) and Colin Moran (129 wRC+, .161 ISO) since last season, though both bat down in the order. No other Pittsburgh bat has both a 100+ wRC+ and .130+ ISO vs RHP. Gregory Polanco (92 wRC+, .177 ISO) comes closest. Starling Marte (120 wRC+, .129 ISO) is an expensive stolen base threat. The Nationals will face Trevor Williams and own the top implied run line on the board (4.95). He's gone exactly six innings in all but one start, but is missing even fewer bats than Hellickson this year and has just a 4.3 K-BB%. Like last year though, he too, generates a lot of weak contact (85.7 mph aEV), which has led to a .313 xwOBA this season. He's allowed just 15 HRs in 185 innings since last season. Oddly, it's LHBs who have just a 22.9 Hard% against him since last season with RHBs more than 10 points higher. That's not going to pull the red hot Bryce Harper (181 wRC+, .350 ISO vs RHP since 2017) or Matt Adams (142 wRC+, .282 ISO) off your board. Both have hit the ball hard on 46% of contact over the last week, the latter with a 362 wRC+. From the right side, all are above a .160 ISO against RHP with Michael A. Taylor (92 wRC+) the only one below a 117 wRC+. Ryan Zimmerman (114 wRC+, .237 ISO) is the only one above a .200 ISO.

Hellickson may be one of the more familiar names on the mound tonight but he could quite possibly be the worst starting pitcher on this entire nine-game main slate from a skills perspective. In his nine starts since being traded to the Baltimore Orioles, he has experienced relatively mixed results, allowing six or more earned runs on four occasions while limiting the damage to three earned runs or less in his other five outings. It doesn't help Hellickson's cause that he owns similar minuscule strikeout splits to batters from each side of the plate, with a 13.4% strikeout rate to lefties and 13.9% strikeout rate to righties, and his skills take an even steeper downturn in the fly ball (51.1%) and hard contact departments (33.7% HH%) against left-handed batters. Because of this, we almost always want to load up on the lefties facing Hellickson, and this Tampa Bay Rays offense certainly obliges in that aspect. Logan Morrison (132 wRC+, .367 wOBA, .291 ISO vs RHP) and Kevin Kiermaier (127 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .211 ISO vs RHP) stand out as the premier Tampa Bay lefties to target in this lineup, while Lucas Duda and Corey Dickerson (.222 ISO vs RHP) fall in line a tier below but remain perfectly viable in tournaments as one-offs or part of a Rays stack. Other than the left-handed bats, and though less appealing overall, Steven Souza (119 wRC+, .347 wOBA, .254 ISO vs RHP) amd Evan Longoria (.170 ISO vs RHP) are the two righties that possess enough power and plate skills against right-handed pitching that they should be able to capitalize on a matchup with a low-strikeout, flyball pitcher. That said, they probably still remain fringe stacking candidates on this Tampa Bay offense considering each sacrifice the platoon advantage and Hellickson has shown the ability to somewhat control batted ball events versus right-handed hitters this season and throughout his career.

Hellickson may be one of the more familiar names on the mound tonight but he could quite possibly be the worst starting pitcher on this entire six-game main slate as well. In his five starts since being traded to the Baltimore Orioles, he has seen some mixed results, allowing six or more earned runs in two outings while limiting the damage to three earned runs or less in the other three. It doesn't help that Hellickson has similar strikeout splits to batters from each side of the plate, with a 14.4% strikeout rate to lefties and 14.2% strikeout rate to righties, and his skills take an even steeper downturn in the fly ball (52.3%) and hard contact departments (34.3% HH%) against left-handed batters. Because of this, we would normally want to load up on the lefties facing Hellickson on most nights, though the problem arises in this spot that the Toronto Blue Jays offense is just downright terrible (Charles Barkley voice). Justin Smoak, who has a .285 ISO and .369 wOBA versus southpaws this season would have easily been the premier play from this Toronto team but he inexplicably failed to make the lineup tonight for whatever reason. This leaves us with very little, if anything, in terms of lefty power from this lineup as Kendrys Morales (.181 ISO vs RHP) now owns the highest ISO from the left-side of the plate, though Ezequiel Carrera (132 wRC+, .371 wOBA vs RHP) is still a nice piece to round out a stack but does lack the individual power to be a viable one-off in tournaments. Other than that, Josh Donaldson (139 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .258 ISO vs RHP) can always be considered in a matchup with a low-strikeout, fly ball pitcher and probably still remains the best one-off target on this Toronto offense despite sacrificing the platoon split. Additionally, Steve Pearce (.180 ISO vs RHP) and Jose Bautista (.176 ISO vs RHP) deserve some sort of mention as stack fillers given their past power successes and cheap price tags in the top half of this Blue Jays batting order Thursday evening.