Kyle Hendricks Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Kyle Hendricks is the most expensive pitcher on the main FanDuel slate ($10.6K) and while we normally don’t think of him in that manner due to lack of strikeouts, there may be enough evidence to support his price tag tonight. He struck out 10 of 27 Twins through eight shutout innings (three hits) last time out. The performance drove his strikeout rate all the way up to…21.3%. Hendricks continues to be effective as a contact manager (85.8 mph EV, 4.1% Barrels/BBE) with elite control (2.4 BB%) and has pitched into the eighth inning in three straight starts. He’s failed to complete six innings just twice this year. This matchup has Quality Start written all over it and he may be the one pitcher we can be most confident about doing that tonight. The real attraction here is the matchup though. The Pirates have a ridiculous 58 wRC+, 18.3 K-BB% and 10.9 HR/FB vs RHP this year. Only two batters in tonight’s projected lineup are above an 80 wRC+ over the last 30 days. This is an amazing spot for a good pitcher, who’s heavy workload should allow him to compile enough strikeouts here.

Kyle Hendricks has generally beat his estimators behind great contact management (85.3 mph aEV is best on the board) and a strong defense. That’s still the case this season with a 3.39 ERA, 4.40 SIERA and 3.84 DRA, but while his estimators have remained rather consistent over the last 30 days, his ERA is actually up to 4.94 over that span. His .289 xwOBA is 54 points below his actual results over that span though and just four points from his .293 xwOBA on the season, suggesting not much has changed. And in fact, it’s really just been two bad outings. He’s allowed one run or less in three of his last four starts. San Diego is a park upgrade and a great spot for Hendricks, who may be worth a buy in the mid-range price tier for less than $9K tonight. This is all about the matchup. The Padres have an 85 wRC+ and 26.3 K% vs RHP, the latter the highest split on the board by a full point. Considering the current version of their lineup, they retain the high strikeout rate, but without any real power. According to PlateIQ, tonight’s projected lineup combines for a 24.6 K% (omitting the pitcher’s spot) with a .304 wOBA and .149 ISO vs RHP this year. Not a single batter is above a .350 wRC+ or .190 ISO.

Luis Castillo and Kyle Hendricks are two of the top three contact managers on the board by aEV (86.3 mph & 86.4 mph respectively). Further in Castillo’s favor are a 56.3 GB% and 28.8 K% vs Hendricks 41.7 GB% and 21.5%. These things matter quite a bit on a night where a decent wind blowing out to center is expected to greatly boost offense. Where Hendricks has a major advantage is in his 4.8 BB% vs Castillo’s 12.3% that’s worst on the board among those with more than two starts. Hendricks has additionally struggled and not gone more than 4.1 innings in any of his last three starts. It’s at least fairly clear that pitchers shouldn’t be used in this game. Daily fantasy players are not even giving up much upside with Castillo due to Chicago’s 108 wRC+, 9.9 BB% and 18.5 HR/FB vs RHP. Offensively, the worst split among these two pitchers over the last calendar year is the .317 wOBA/.312 xwOBA LHBs have put up against Castillo. This makes Kyle Schwarber (100 wRC+, .232 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Anthony Rizzo (160 wRC+, .253 ISO) and Jason Heyward (112 wRC+, .176 ISO) key bats, none more than $4K on DraftKings tonight.

Kyle Hendricks hit the IL two weeks back with a shoulder issue and returns without the benefit of any rehab starts. His 4.4 BB% is lowest on the board with a 20.6 K% right on his career rate. There are two pitchers in Texas who better his 86.1 mph aEV, but nobody else on today’s board. A 3.86 ERA is below all of his non-FIP estimators due to a 9.9 HR/FB and seven of his 40 runs being unearned. Conditions are not favorable towards his usage tonight, while the Pirates are also a contact prone offense (103 wRC+, 19.2 K% vs RHP) that’s been red hot (151 wRC+, 15.1 K% and 23.1 HR/FB over the last week). While Hendricks has fared quite well against LHBs over the last calendar year (.292 wOBA, .274 xwOBA), a weather boost along with workload uncertainty would make this an interesting spot for Pittsburgh bats, implied for just 4.22 runs. Josh Bell (160 wRC+, .291 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Adam Frazier (123 wRC+, .188 ISO), Bryan Reynolds (151 wRC+, .171 ISO), and Corey Dickerson (133 wRC+, .240 ISO) all generally find themselves in the top half of the order and only Bell costs more than $4.2K on either site.