Lance Lynn Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

A nine game Wednesday night slate includes a trio of $10K arms, but also two more in the $9K range on both sites, but are they all usable? We can start by saying that no pitcher reaches $10K on both sites, but at $10.4K on FanDuel, Lance Lynn has a 26.7 K-BB% over his last 12 starts, which now makes up two-thirds of his season, walking just seven batters over that entire span. He has five straight Quality Starts with two runs or less and finally has his ERA below four (3.99), which shows you how poorly he started. All non-FIP estimators are at least half a run lower, as 16 of his 21 barrels (7.1%) have been home runs. The four-seamer has been his best pitch (45.4%, -0.7 RV/100, 35.4 Whiff%, wOBA & xwOBA below .270), while the contact prone Guardians (103 wRC+, 17.2 K%, 8.2 HR/FB vs RHP) have struggled against fastballs since the break (-0.56 wFB/C). The workload and run prevention gets Lynn the third best projection on FanDuel, but the potential lack of strikeouts drops him to sixth on DraftKings. However, the $1K higher price tag has him projecting as the second worst value on FanDuel, but just sixth worst on DraftKings. For more on tonight’s top pitchers, including the top projected one in a great matchup, check out Wednesday’s PlateIQ live blog.

The top projecting FanDuel values are Andrew Heaney and Blake Snell, but there are also a few cheaper pitchers who project well enough to be considered on a single pitcher site too. Starting with the pitcher who is barely the fourth best projecting pitcher on the slate, a point or less removed from third best, Lance Lynn is finally starting to see the efforts of his underlying performance rewarded with a total of five earned runs over his last four starts and just two outs shy of eight straight starts with at least six innings pitched. He has a 27.6 K-BB% over his last nine starts (22.0% on the year) with just four walks over that span (13 on the year). Yet he still has a 4.70 season ERA because he’s only stranded two-thirds of his runners and 16 of his 21 barrels (8.6%) have left the yard for a 17.6 HR/FB. Non-FIP estimators are all below four, ranging as low as a 3.17 SIERA. Lynn’s best pitch has been a cutter he’s utilized 22.9% of the time for just a -0.2 RV/100 and .340 wOBA, but 26.7 Whiff% and .305 xwOBA. The Mariners (105 wRC+, 22.4 K% vs RHP) are a bottom half of the league offense against this pitch (-0.35 wFC/C). Seattle also played a long Sunday game, which included several hours or rain delay, on a travel day with an earlier start in Seattle tonight. Lynn projects as your fourth best FanDuel value for $9.3K, but second best on DraftKings for $1.4K less.

With a 25.8 K% over his last five starts, Jose Suarez is up to a 22.6 K% on the season and even has his second and third Quality Starts of the season in that span. Issues in his contact profile (9.1% Barrels/BBE) have been dissipating over his last six starts (5.3% Barrel/BBE), leaving a 4.10 ERA within one-third of a run of all estimators. The Tigers are better against LHP, but even that has been fading recently (99 wRC+, 22.0 K%, 6.6 HR/FB). Suarez projects as tonight’s fifth best arm and third best value for $8K or less on either site.

Hunter Brown is the top ranked Houston prospect by Fangraphs with a 50 Future Value grade. Triple digit velocity capable, Brown adds a mid-90s slider and low-80s curve, though does still have some control issues that have some projecting a possible bullpen home rather than a rotation one. In fact, nine of his 23 appearances have come out of the pen at AAA this year, where he’s struck out 31.5% of batters with a 10.6 BB%. He starts his major league career in a favorable matchup (Rangers 96 wRC+, 23.6 K% vs RHP) in a negative run environment, assuming roof closure in Houston. With a $2.5K discrepancy in cost, Brown projects as the fifth best FanDuel value, but best DraftKings value and a perfect SP2 arm for just $5.2K.

Tonight’s other debuting pitcher, twenty-four year old Ryne Nelson is the Diamondbacks’ sixth rated prospect with a 45+ Future Value grade (Fangraphs). Nelson has bat missing high heat and utilizes it often with a curveball and slider to keep batters off balance, but has struck out just 21.6% of AAA batters through 26 starts this year, which is more than a 10 point drop off from AA in 2021. He’s in a tougher spot (Padres 102 wRC+, 21.8 K% vs RHP, but even better than that since the trade deadline). San Diego is a firmly negative run environment, though with some potentially hitter friendly weather with an earlier start time. Only available on DraftKings Nelson is a reasonable SP2 choice for just $5K, projecting as the fifth best point per dollar pitching value.

Mitch White has struck out 19.1% of batters faced this season with just an 8.3 SwStr% and 90.1 Z-Contat%, but there has been some life in a contact profile that’s allowed just 5.5% Barrels/BBE and 32.8% 95+ mph EV. The result is a 3.87 xERA that’s his only non-FIP estimator below four. None the less, he currently projects as the top value on FanDuel for less than $11K. You’re probably not using him in a single pitcher site, even against the Cubs (98 wRC+, 23.2 K% vs RHP), though he may be a reasonable SP2 arm on DraftKings for less than $7K. Anibal Sanchez (against Oakland) and James Kaprielian (against Washington) are also cheap, strong projecting values who you are not considering on FanDuel. Two who may have a bit more of an argument are Bailey Falter ($7.1K) and Lance Lynn ($8.9K).

Falter has three straight Quality Starts, his first three of the season and is sitting on a very respectable 15.4 K-BB% on the season. A 29.3 GB% will probably be a problem in Philly and has with a 16.7 HR/FB, as he’s seen 12 of 14 barrels (9.3%) leave the park. Due to the extreme fly ball lean, a 4.09 SIERA is his only estimator below a 4.41 ERA. Arizona has just a 93 wRC+ and 23.0 K% vs LHP, but has some life injected into their lineup with recent callups and has hammered Philly pitching in this series so far.

Lance Lynn has a 27.0 K-BB% over his last eight starts, but is just recently starting to get the results befitting of such numbers, allowing four earned runs over his last 17.2 innings. Yet, he still have a 5.00 ERA on the season with a 21.2 K-BB%, due to a 17.9 HR/FB and 64.9 LOB% with 15 of his 20 barrels (8.8%) leaving the yard. His worst non-FIP estimator is a 4.09 xERA with contact neutral estimators below three and a half. Against the Royals (90 wRC+, 22.2 K%, 8.5 HR/FB vs RHP) with a pitcher friendly umpire, he is certainly a pitcher you can consider on either site, even as a deGrom/Cole alternative for more than $2K less. Lynn projects as the third best DraftKings value for $8K.

One other arm to consider might be Joe Ryan. He registered his first two Quality Starts since the beginning of July last two times out, but also has a 29.2 K% (21.7 K-BB%) over his last seven starts now. The extreme fly ball lean (27.6 GB%) is still an issue with 17 home runs and 29 barrels (9.3%), but he’s also generated a 16.1 IFFB% and is up to a 16.9 K-BB% on the season. While most estimators are above four the .254 BABIP does fit the contact profile and his 3.65 ERA aligns well with a 3.71 xERA. The Red Sox have a 97 wRC+ and 21.9 K% vs RHP.

It’s very unlikely that you’re not paying up for pitching on this six game slate, though there are some strong projecting values that may be single pitcher site viable. Lance Lynn still has a season ERA exceeding five after 13 starts, but that really goes to illustrate how poorly he started. Over his last seven, he has a 28.4 K% and mere 1.9 BB%, but with 10 of 14 Barrels (12.5%) leaving the yard. Even then, he has a 4.02 ERA with contact neutral estimators below three over this span. He certainly hasn’t been the workhorse we’ve been accustomed to the last few years, as Lynn has recorded just two seventh inning outs all year. We should see some regression from the 17.3 HR/FB, though he’s never had control this elite. It’s a decent matchup in Baltimore, now a pitcher friendly park, housing an offense with a 102 wRC+ and 22.2 K% vs RHP. Costing as much as $9.1K, Lynn still projects as the third best FanDuel value (fourth on DraftKings.

Jameson Taillon has five starts with at least seven innings, but only three others with six innings all season long. While he misses bats at almost a league average rate (21.7 K%, 9.9 SwStr%), the real key is that he rarely walks anyone (4.4 BB%) and 12 of his 24 walks came in a four start stretch over the last month, but he’s walked none in each of his last two. His 4.00 ERA sits within a quarter run of all estimators with the contact neutral ones a bit lower, while the FIP and xERA are slightly higher. They don’t get much better than his matchup tonight. Taillon gets a massive park upgrade against the light hitting A’s (82 wRC+, 23.6 K% vs RHP, 80 wRC+, 6.7 HR/FB at home). Taillon is just the sixth best projected value on FanDuel for $9.4K, but third best for nearly $2K less on DraftKings.

While Luis Garcia is now pitching further into games, having faced at least 25 batters in five straight starts, it’s only spawned a single Quality Start and 20.9 K% over this span with 18 runs in 29.2 innings, though it’s not all his doing (.356 BABIP, 67.0 LOB%). He still has a 25.0 K% (17.3 K-BB%) on the season with all estimators at least slightly below his 4.09 ERA, from a 3.50 xERA to a 4.03 FIP. He still projects well enough to be useful on a six game slate, even in a tough matchup against the Twins (113 wRC+, 22.1 K% vs RHP), who have really been struggling over the last seven days (46 wRC+, 24.6 K%, 4.9 HR/FB) without their top player (Byron Buxton).

Lastly, Jordan Lyles is a fine SP2 punt on DraftKings ($6.7K). His 12.1 K-BB% isn’t too far below league average and the new dimensions in Baltimore have been a major reason just 19 of his 47 barrels (10.6%) have left the yard and just three at home. He’ll be facing a predominantly right-handed lineup (.325 xwOBA vs Lyles this year) that has struggled with RHP (96 wRC+, 20.4 K%, 8.5 HR/FB). One caveat is that the Orioles were also content to let him throw a lot of innings early, but as they’ve moved closer to a potential post-season berth, he’s recorded six innings in just one of his last seven outings.

The number of usable pitching options on Friday night doesn’t stop at a loaded top of the board, as there are also several middle of the board arms in strong matchups. Lance Lynn’s 6.43 ERA will make you gasp and while the underlying numbers aren’t up to his usual standard, he’s still striking out batters at a league average rate (21.8%) with great control (5.3 BB%) and just 6.8% Barrels/BBE. The primary drivers behind his poor results are a .333 BABIP (White Sox defense allows a .301 mark at -12 Runs Prevented), 56.4 LOB% and seven of his nine barrels going for home runs (14.9 HR/FB). He should have some positive regression coming with estimators ranging from a 3.77 SIERA to a 4.34 FIP. It’s not great, but it’s better and with a low cost ($7.5K or less) and great matchup (A’s 76 wRC+, 24 K%, 9.1 HR/FB), Lynn projects as the top point per dollar value on either site tonight, as well as the sixth best arm overall.

Blake Snell has struck out 33 of his last 85 batters, but with 14 walks and only going beyond five innings in one of those four starts. He has just three Quality Starts on the season with another elite strikeout rate (29.1%), but also another raging walk rate (13.5%) and 90.2 mph EV. A .313 BABIP and 67.6 LOB% have produced a 4.75 ERA that’s about a run above estimators ranging from a 3.58 FIP to a 4.02 SIERA. Pitching in a pitcher friendly home park, Snell projects as a top five value on either site for $8.5K or less. However, it’s a tough matchup (Twins 107 wRC+, 19.3 K% vs LHP), while his secondaries have been much better than his fastball (0.9 RV/100, wOBA & xwOBA above .400), but he’s throwing the latter much more often 54.4%, which could be trouble against a Minnesota offense that’s third best in the league against the gas (0.52 wFB/C). This is a matchup where Snell may have upside, but certainly carries plenty of risk too.

Despite a 15.5 K-BB% over six starts, Bailey Falter’s transition to the rotation has been less than successful and it’s all in the contact profile. With just a 30.8 GB%, he’s allowed seven home runs on nine barrels (11.5%) and has yet to surpass the fifth inning. He’s been 75% sinker/slider this year and neither currently grades out as a quality pitch by Statcast metrics with wOBAs and xwOBAs above .350. However, virtually everything outside his control is strongly in his favor tonight. He gets a substantial park upgrade with a pitcher friendly umpire and great matchup. The Pirates have an 83 wRC+ with a board high split 26.0 K% vs LHP this year. For less than $7K, Falter is the fourth best projected value on the board and a great SP2 punt on DraftKings ($5.9K).

Jeffrey Springs has missed some time in July and returned to strike out just two of 21 Royals over the weekend, but still registered a double digit SwStr%. Another brilliants Tampa Bay pitching creation, Springs has produced a 20.8 K-BB% with a 13.8 SwStr%, 79.4 Z-Contact% and 29.8 Z-O-Swing%. That means he’s getting lots of whiffs within the strike zone and inducing a good portion of opposing batter swings outside of it. He only has three starts of six innings and his 2.50 ERA is due for some regression (90.2 LOB%, but estimators ranging from a 3.26 xFIP to a 3.62 DRA are nothing to be ashamed of. Cleveland is one of the better offenses against Springs’ best pitches (slider & changeup), but are a far better matchup for LHPs (75 wRC+, 21.2 K%, 6.2 HR/FB). Costing less than $10K on either site, Springs is actually a better projected value on FanDuel.

While Patrick Sandoval has struck out 26 of his last 93 batters to push his season rate up to 24.1%, his walk rate is also up to 10.3%, while he’s allowed 15 runs over his last 19 innings. The good news is that a .491 BABIP (62.3 LOB%) is absurd and he hasn’t allowed a single barrel in his last two starts (6.5% on the year). His 3.64 ERA is still actually below all non-FIP estimators (5.1 HR/FB). Sandoval is a top seven projected value for less than $9K on either site, but the Rangers are no joke against LHP (115 wRC+, 22.7 K%, 18.1 HR/FB), while this is a hitter friendly park with a potentially hitter friendly umpire.

Alex Cobb has just a 16.8 K% over his last seven starts, but with a 2.82 ERA over that span. He has a 4.26 ERA on the season with a 22.8 K% (16.0 K-BB%). Fewer strikeouts and ground balls (61.2% season, 57.5% last seven) resulted in his ERA being cut in half because his BABIP dropped about 100 points. He’s still stranding less than 60% of runners with a .332 BABIP on the year with estimators ranging from a 2.79 xERA to a 3.30 DRA. If all this is confusing us, imagine what it’s doing to him. Cobb is the sixth best projected DraftKings value for $6.7K in a marginal spot against the Cubs (100 wRC+, 22.9 K% vs RHP). He is basically a two pitch pitcher (splitter/sinker more than 40% each). Since the Cubs are great against one pitch (0.5 wFB/C) and terrible against the other (-2.9 wFS/C), he should probably opt to feature the splitter more here.

Lastly, while the upside isn’t very high, Jose Quintana is probably too cheap (within $200 of $7K on either site). He had been coming off back to back subpar road starts before returning to Pittsburgh to shut out the Marlins through seven innings without a walk (four strikeouts) last time out. He’s allowed just seven home runs all season, five of them coming in back to back starts mid-June. While he’s allowed 22 barrels (7.5%), it’s still a better than average contact profile with an 86.9 mph EV. This, in addition to a league average 13.6 K-BB% produces non-FIP estimators ranging from a 3.77 xFIP to a 4.44 xERA, all a bit above his actual ERA (3.70). Quintana’s strongest offering have been his four-seam and curveball, two pitches the Phillies (111 wRC+, 21.7 K% vs LHP) have hit really well, but Pittsburgh greatly suppresses RH power and there’s a pitcher friendly umpire behind the plate. Quintana is currently the seventh best projected FanDuel value.

A simple pricing mishap gives us the our top projected point per dollar pitching value on FanDuel, according to Plate IQ, with Lance Lynn costing just $5.5K in his season debut in Detroit (65 wRC+, 24.7 K% and 6.7 HR/FB vs RHP). Even if we’re not expecting what he’s produced in recent seasons, this price tag appears too low with the caveat being that his minor league rehab starts (all three at AAA) did not go so well. Lynn struck out just eight of 46 batters with two home runs and walks, allowing 10 runs over the same amount of innings. Optimistically, he did face 20 batters in his last start and should be ready for a larger workload than $5.5K implies here. Those AAA batters may be better than the Tigers too. Costing $9.6K on DraftKings, Lynn projects as one of the worst values on the board.

As far as pitchers below $9K that you might consider on a one pitcher site in FanDuel GPPs, Alex Wood and Brady Singer come to mind in a game where they are facing each other. Wood entered his last start (number 11), having not yet completed six innings in a start, so it was certainly a surprise when he exited after seven innings of one run ball against the Rockies. A solid 16.9 K-BB% and 49.1 GB% suggested all along that he was much better than an ERA nearing four and a half. All estimators remain below four, still at least one-third of a run removed from his 4.23 ERA with the main culprit being a .340 BABIP. The San Francisco defense has been stunningly bad (-16 Runs Prevented, .310 BABIP). The Royals have just a 96 wRC+ and 8.4 HR/FB vs LHP, but also a board low 17.7 K% vs LHP. Wood is still the third best projected value above $7K on FanDuel ($8.6K). He’s also the fourth best projected value overall on DraftKings at $8.3K.

Singer has a 24.1 K% on a league average 10.9 SwStr%, but board topping 21.8 CStr%. That said, after moving back into the rotation with 14 shutout innings over his first two starts, he’s been pounded for six home runs on eight barrels (15.4%) and 13 runs over his last 15.2 innings. He hasn’t walked anyone, but has a 92.8 mph EV with a much lower ground ball rate (46.2%) over this span. With a 21.3 K-BB% on the season, Singer has contact neutral estimators below three, while his FIP and xERA stretch just above four, though still below his 4.33 ERA. The Giants have a 107 wRC+, 22.3 K% and 12.8 HR/FB vs RHP, but could be a bit flat coming off a sweep of the Dodgers where the pitching did most of the heavy lifting. The San Francisco offense has just a 77 wRC+ and 26.8 K% over the last week. Singer is the fourth best projected value above $7K on FanDuel ($8.3K), but is a bit further down the board on DraftKings for $300 less.

Looking at a few lower priced SP2 types on DraftKings, Ian Anderson posted a 2.8 K-BB% over his first five starts then had a couple of marginal starts in between (8.3%) before seeming to steady the ship over his last four starts (16.8%). He’s struck out more than 20% in each of his last four starts with a double digit walk rate just once. As a result, he’s fallen short of six innings in all four starts by a single out, though that’s not to say they’ve been Quality Starts (only one), as he’s allowed multiple home runs in two of the four starts and at least four runs in three of them. A .359 BABIP, 68 LOB% and 16.7 HR/FB seem easier problems to solve than a narrow gap or even negative K-BB%. Also encouraging, he’s allowed just a single barrel that stayed in the park over this span. With just 5.0% Barrels/BBE on the season, a 3.78 xERA is his only estimator below four and therefor also more than half a run removed from his 4.53 ERA. Estimators over the last month are right around the four mark though. The Nationals have a 98 wRC+ and 20.2 K% vs RHP. Anderson does not currently project as a top half of the board value on DraftKings, but should get there if he pitches more like he has recently and less like he did in April.

The top two projected values on DraftKings both cost less than $5K. Mike Minor has struck out eight of 38 batters with an 11.7 SwStr% and three walks, while his velocity appears to be intact. The five home runs (35.7 HR/FB) and barrels (19.2%) appear to be a problem, but a very unsustainable one with an average 88.2 mph EV. At 34 years-old, perhaps expect a slight decline from his career 15.1 K-BB%, which still makes him a fine mid-to-back end of the rotation starter when healthy and a great value at his current cost in Arizona (81 wRC+, 24.2 K% vs LHP). Zack Thompson (with a K) will be making his first career major league start after coming out of the bullpen for four innings in his major league debut. He struck out just three of 16 Cubs with a 5.4 SwStr%, but with half his contact on the ground and an 82.4 mph EV. An April scouting report called the 24 year-old with a 45 Future Value grade (Fangraphs) a “low variance fourth or fifth starter” with a big time curveball, but no other above average pitch, which may mean a potential reverse platoon split if he throws it often enough. That should be enough to justify a $4.3K price tag against the Pirates (86 wRC+, 24.8 K% vs LHP).