Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, May 2nd

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2015-05-05 18:09:59

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success..

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
%{color:gold}*Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE*
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Eovaldi	NYY	BOS	199.2	4.37	3.91	1.33	50.0%	16.6%	5.0%	0.63	1.36
Miley	BOS	NYY	201.1	4.34	3.67	1.40	33.3%	21.1%	8.7%	1.03	1.82
Danks	CWS	MIN	193.2	4.74	4.64	1.44	50.0%	15.1%	8.7%	1.16	1.10
Nolasco	MIN	CWS	159	5.38	4.06	1.52	16.7%	16.6%	5.5%	1.25	1.16
Liriano	PIT	STL	162.1	3.38	3.61	1.30	12.5%	25.3%	11.7%	0.72	2.03
Lackey	STL	PIT	198	3.82	3.64	1.28	57.9%	19.7%	5.6%	1.09	1.31
Fiers	MIL	CHC	71.2	2.13	2.94	0.88		27.7%	6.2%	0.88	0.71
Arrieta	CHC	MIL	156.2	2.53	2.83	0.99	50.0%	27.2%	6.7%	0.29	1.73
Santiago	LAA	SFG	127.1	3.75	4.38	1.36	16.7%	19.9%	9.7%	1.06	0.61
Hudson	SFG	LAA	189.1	3.57	3.66	1.23	68.4%	15.2%	4.3%	0.71	2.05
Sanchez	TOR	CLE	33	1.09	2.53	0.70		22.3%	7.4%	0.27	3.38
Kluber	CLE	TOR	235.2	2.44	2.61	1.09	57.1%	28.3%	5.4%	0.53	1.57
Hamels	PHI	MIA	204.2	2.46	3.29	1.15	58.8%	23.9%	7.1%	0.62	1.49
Haren	MIA	PHI	186	4.02	3.74	1.18	30.0%	18.7%	4.6%	1.31	1.06
Archer	TBR	BAL	194.2	3.33	3.80	1.28	55.0%	21.1%	8.8%	0.55	1.50
Gonzalez	BAL	TBR	159	3.23	4.40	1.30	40.0%	16.5%	7.6%	1.42	0.89
Walker	SEA	HOU	38	2.61	3.97	1.29		21.3%	11.3%	0.47	1.78
McHugh	HOU	SEA	154.2	2.73	3.14	1.02	42.9%	25.4%	6.6%	0.76	1.25
Price	DET	KCR	248.1	3.26	2.72	1.08	52.4%	26.9%	3.8%	0.91	1.08
Volquez	KCR	DET	192.2	3.04	4.20	1.23	50.0%	17.3%	8.8%	0.79	1.53
Marquis	CIN	ATL
Stults	ATL	CIN	176	4.30	4.33	1.38	26.3%	14.6%	5.9%	1.33	1.22
Gonzalez	WAS	NYM	158.2	3.57	3.43	1.20	46.7%	24.8%	8.6%	0.57	1.22
Niese	NYM	WAS	187.2	3.40	3.78	1.27	41.2%	17.6%	5.7%	0.82	1.60
Pomeranz	OAK	TEX	69	2.35	3.62	1.12	25.0%	23.0%	9.4%	0.91	1.27
Martinez	TEX	OAK	140.1	4.55	5.22	1.46	27.3%	12.6%	9.0%	1.15	0.70
De La Rosa	COL	SDP	184.1	4.10	4.05	1.24	40.0%	18.1%	8.7%	1.03	1.69
Morrow	SDP	COL	33.1	5.67	4.23	1.65		20.3%	12.2%	0.54	1.67
Hellickson	ARI	LAD	63.2	4.52	4.04	1.45		19.2%	7.5%	1.13	0.89
Baker	LAD	ARI	80.2	5.47	4.24	1.19	25.0%	16.6%	4.2%	1.67	0.50

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

David Price DET (at KC) – Price endured the start from hell against the Yankees, a game that he entered with a 0.40 ERA and left with a 3.28, and followed it up with a somewhat disappointing effort against a heavily-slumping Twins lineup. He now faces America’s hottest team, a Royals squad that has won four of the last five ballgames and, for the second year in a row, struck out less than any other lineup in baseball. The high-contact approach could play well against a pitcher who lives on the edges of the strike zone, and though that combo might also result in a bevy of quick outs, the Royals present the type of attack that could result in another level of BABIP hell for the Tiger southpaw. Price is still worth pushing in all the chips from a pure performance standpoint, but his salary will determine his roster value in DFS.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Chris Archer TB (at BAL) – If it weren’t for the quality of his opponent, Archer would qualify for the All-In category. He’s earned it. I was skeptical on Archer entering the season, but his limited arsenal has translated extremely well thanks to improvements in pitch command that have turned his mid-to-high 90s fastball into a deadly weapon of precision. His last three games have been incredible, shutting down the powerful offenses of the Blue Jays (twice) and Red Sox with a combined 0.00 ERA, 27 strikeouts and four walks across 19.7 innings. His worst start of the season was in his first turn, against the Orioles, in which he surrendered 3 earned runs plus his only two homers on the year.

Collin McHugh HOU (vs. SEA) – He’s been doing the same trick for two seasons now, but some refuse to believe it. He strikes out a man per inning, walks one to two batters per game, and keeps the ball in the yard. He has also been remarkably consistent on a game-to-game basis, having given up more than four runs in a game just twice since the start of 2014, and more than three earnies just four times in 29 starts. His ERA-plus of 141 is the exact same value this season as it was in 2014, while his 1.79 FIP leads the major leagues. One of these days, folks are gonna understand that McHugh amounts to more than a hill of beans in this crazy world. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow. But soon.

Gio Gonzalez WAS (at NYM) – Gio’s not selling any jeans with his 5.01 ERA and 40 baserunners allowed in 23.3 innings, though he has struck out 22 batters and allowed just one home run, posting per-inning rates that are par for his career in both categories. Gonzalez is coming off of his worst start of the season, a six-run gift to the Marlins, but he has encountered trouble at every turn in 2015. He’s been hit hard by offenses ranging from the Phillies to the Red Sox, and though Gio threw six shutout frames against the Cardinals two starts ago, he also coughed up 8 hits and 4 walks in that ballgame. His platoon advantage will play up against a club that’s missing its top right-handed hitters due to injury, but Gonzalez will need to find a consistent release point if he is to turn the corner.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Eovaldi	0.336	4.30	0.304	4.45	0.257	0.714	0.323	3.37	0.277	96.91	16.6%
Miley	0.326	5.32	0.331	4.06	0.266	0.837	0.317	3.98	0.263	97.48	21.1%
Danks	0.317	4.11	0.355	4.96	0.262	0.672	0.291	4.76	0.266	103.06	15.1%
Nolasco	0.396	5.38	0.355	5.38	0.256	0.679	0.351	4.30	0.311	97.81	16.6%
Liriano	0.331	4.20	0.284	3.20	0.250	0.673	0.280	3.59	0.215	93.59	25.3%
Lackey	0.316	3.29	0.327	4.38	0.234	0.642	0.305	3.78	0.262	99.29	19.7%
Fiers	0.234	2.23	0.240	2.06	0.242	0.694	0.224	2.99	0.179	80.14	27.7%
Arrieta	0.251	2.18	0.234	2.81	0.232	0.650	0.274	2.26	0.2	96.64	27.2%
Santiago	0.274	2.34	0.326	4.27	0.254	0.682	0.288	4.29	0.246	75.77	19.9%
Hudson	0.331	3.71	0.292	3.41	0.227	0.624	0.300	3.54	0.266	89.81	15.2%
Sanchez	0.223	1.54	0.149	0.84	0.247	0.701	0.157	2.80	0.126	19.38	22.3%
Kluber	0.304	2.53	0.246	2.34	0.235	0.718	0.316	2.35	0.232	102.94	28.3%
Hamels	0.291	2.18	0.285	2.53	0.276	0.758	0.295	3.07	0.231	104.53	23.9%
Haren	0.290	3.42	0.333	4.63	0.207	0.567	0.276	4.09	0.248	96.75	18.7%
Archer	0.283	2.67	0.307	4.21	0.281	0.835	0.296	3.39	0.239	98.75	21.1%
Gonzalez	0.340	2.81	0.321	3.72	0.235	0.684	0.273	4.89	0.253	94.52	16.5%
Walker	0.333	2.86	0.229	2.25	0.244	0.747	0.282	3.68	0.223	78.13	21.3%
McHugh	0.272	2.58	0.252	2.95	0.234	0.660	0.259	3.11	0.205	99.44	25.4%
Price	0.292	3.19	0.283	3.28	0.297	0.805	0.306	2.78	0.238	109.71	26.9%
Volquez	0.321	3.44	0.286	2.74	0.291	0.803	0.263	4.15	0.229	93.03	17.3%
Marquis					0.255	0.707
Stults	0.342	5.29	0.341	3.93	0.224	0.668	0.296	4.63	0.276	88.53	14.6%
Gonzalez	0.284	3.79	0.293	3.51	0.260	0.743	0.294	3.03	0.226	97.15	24.8%
Niese	0.289	4.21	0.329	3.14	0.221	0.751	0.304	3.67	0.263	93.07	17.6%
Pomeranz	0.300	1.20	0.259	2.67	0.240	0.700	0.244	3.77	0.203	56.90	23.0%
Martinez	0.366	4.54	0.326	4.57	0.279	0.767	0.289	4.94	0.272	82.93	12.6%
De La Rosa	0.241	2.47	0.336	4.61	0.309	0.801	0.263	4.34	0.233	95.84	18.1%
Morrow	0.412	6.35	0.318	4.96	0.284	0.772	0.357	3.73	0.285	47.54	20.3%
Hellickson	0.261	3.76	0.423	5.68	0.275	0.876	0.321	4.15	0.275	90.62	19.2%
Baker	0.349	5.66	0.329	5.26	0.256	0.693	0.272	4.78	0.259	47.72	16.6%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Edinson Volquez KC (vs. DET) – For nine straight seasons, Volquez posted a walk rate of 4.0 BB/9 or higher. He had the breakout season way back in 20-aught-8, tossing 196 innings and winning 17 ballgames with a 3.21 ERA, numbers that he didn’t sniff again for six years. The extended stretch of futility caused last season to really stand out on his stat sheet, as Volquez posted a 3.04 ERA for Pittsburgh with a walk rate of 3.3 BB/9, and his excellent performance this season makes more sense in context when looking at the progression of his late-career development. He has demonstrated the mechanical improvement to support his gains in pitch command, further convincing me that we are seeing a legit shift in skills, but he is facing a Detroit ballclub that has the firepower to burn down any pitcher’s stat line.

Taijuan Walker SEA (at HOU) – As disastrous as Walker’s first two starts were this season, they were nearly counterbalanced by his last two turns, in which he surrendered one earned run across 12.3 innings. The good games came against the two Texas teams, including an 8-strikeout performance against the Astros on April 21, but just as Walker was starting to right the ship, along comes a Houston team that just remembered how to hit baseballs. The young right-hander has a wide range of outcomes for today, ranging from disaster to dominance, so it’s a good idea to pair him with a more reliable arm in two-pitcher formats.

Brandon Morrow SD (vs. COL) – Morrow has a checkered resume that’s riddled with injury concerns, a factor which understandably sinks his value in season-long fantasy leagues, but the DFS manager needs only worry about today. In that context, Morrow is a bit of a mixed bag. His first four starts for the Padres have been very strong, flashing his usual mid-90s velocity, and three of his four starts have extended to seven or more innings while allowing two runs or fewer. The one exception was versus these Rockies, who scored five runs off of Morrow in six frames just two starts ago, but the fact that the game was played in Coors Field rather than Petco Park creates as wide of a ballpark disparity as there exists in the game today.

Nick Martinez TEX (vs. OAK) – Take a good look at the owner of the lowest ERA in the major leagues (among qualifiers), having allowed just a lone earned run through 26 innings for a 0.35 mark. The issue is that there are no peripheral stats that support this stinginess on the scoreboard, with a K-to-walk ratio of just 11-to-8 as Martinez has given up lots of contact yet a below-average hit rate and zero homers on the young season. His extremely low K rate was also in effect last season, checking in at less than 5.0 K’s per nine innings, but the result was a 4.55 ERA that is likely much closer to his final line for 2015 than the video game number that currently resides in his stat line.

Jon Niese NYM (vs. WAS) – While it lacks the flare of yesterday’s Max Scherzer vs. Matt Harvey matchup, today’s tilt features a pair of southpaws who neutralize the biggest bats in the opposing lineups. The Nats have Gio to minimize the impact of Lucas Duda, and the Mets have Jon Niese to work his platoon magic against the menacing Bryce Harper. Niese presents another case of mismatch between roto categories and peripheral stats, with a 2.74 ERA on the season despite a 14-to-9 ratio of K’s-to-walks in his first 23 innings of 2015. Of course, change the metric to RA and Niese’s 4.30 suddenly looks a lot closer to his 4.95 FIP, courtesy of four unearned runs on the year. Niese has been a somewhat reliable, mid-range starter for a few years now, but the upside is limited and his numbers lose some luster after a bit if digging.

Drew Pomeranz OAK (at TEX) – After blanking the Mariners over seven frames in his first start of the year, Pomeranz has given up four or five runs while generating exactly 15 outs in each of his next three turns. Walks have historically plagued the southpaw and he came into the season with a career rate of 4.2 BB/9, but his free passes have nearly disappeared this season, with just 5 walks in 22.0 innings. Unfortunately for Pomeranz and the A’s, those extra strikes are getting hit and hit hard.

Miguel Gonzalez BAL (vs. TB) – Two starts into the season, and Gonzalez’s pitching line was a bit out of whack: a 1.42 ERA with 15 strikeouts in 12.7 innings. Then he faced Boston for a pair of turns and normalcy returned, courtesy of 7 runs and 18 baserunners across his next 11 innings, as well as a single-K game in his most recent start. Despite the rollercoaster ride, the composite stats for Gonzalez after four starts sound like a fair approximation of his career to date, including a 3.42 ERA that falls within 0.03 of his career value. It’s a boring profile, but one that’s produced an above0average ERA-plus for every year of his career.

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.

Jorge De La Rosa COL (at SD) – He rebounded nicely after his 9-run disaster in his opening start, but today DLR faces a Padre team that is stacked with right-handed power and poised to mash lefties. Padres hitters are licking their chops.

Jeremy Hellickson ARI (at LAD)
Scott Baker LAD (vs. ARI)
Jason Marquis CIN (at ATL)
Eric Stults ATL (vs. CIN)

Starting Pitcher Salaries

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