Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, May 30th

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success.

Editor’s Note: Kansas City at Chicago has been postponed. Do not roster any players from the Royals or Cubs.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue are ELITE

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher TM OPP IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Sanchez TOR MIN 71 2.79 4.26 1.18 17.8% 13.0% 0.63 2.88
Gibson MIN TOR 227.2 4.15 4.37 1.31 52.6% 13.1% 7.7% 0.59 2.04
De La Rosa COL PHI 207.2 4.38 4.00 1.28 40.0% 18.9% 9.0% 0.95 1.75
Harang PHI COL 257.2 3.25 4.16 1.31 75.0% 18.3% 7.5% 0.59 0.97
Ramirez TBR BAL 99.2 5.60 4.37 1.49 27.3% 18.1% 9.7% 1.35 1.07
Chen BAL TBR 228.1 3.35 3.92 1.20 31.6% 18.0% 5.2% 1.14 1.04
Hellickson ARI MIL 101.2 5.05 4.27 1.53 17.9% 7.9% 1.15 1.02
Lohse MIL ARI 246 3.99 4.03 1.16 50.0% 17.6% 5.4% 1.17 0.95
Gonzalez WAS CIN 201 3.72 3.46 1.27 46.7% 24.3% 8.6% 0.49 1.47
Iglesias CIN WAS 15 3.00 4.39 1.07 18.3% 8.3% 0.00 0.84
Koehler MIA NYM 233.1 3.90 4.20 1.29 52.6% 19.0% 8.8% 0.89 1.08
Niese NYM MIA 231 3.23 3.84 1.29 41.2% 16.8% 5.8% 0.82 1.78
Quintana CWS HOU 241.1 3.51 3.49 1.25 50.0% 21.7% 6.2% 0.48 1.34
Keuchel HOU CWS 257.2 2.69 3.16 1.13 50.0% 18.3% 6.4% 0.42 3.40
Ventura KCR CHC 223.1 3.59 3.92 1.31 44.4% 19.9% 8.8% 0.81 1.61
Wada CHC KCR 69.1 3.25 3.89 1.24 19.7% 6.6% 0.91 0.87
Frias LAD STL 51 4.94 3.02 1.22 20.9% 5.1% 0.88 1.89
Wacha STL LAD 150.2 2.87 3.89 1.16 53.3% 19.1% 6.8% 0.54 1.32
Miley BOS TEX 236.2 4.53 3.88 1.42 33.3% 20.1% 8.9% 0.99 1.68
Gonzalez TEX BOS
Greene DET LAA 125.2 3.94 3.73 1.33 100.0% 20.4% 7.9% 0.72 1.76
Weaver LAA DET 264 3.75 4.27 1.20 52.4% 17.6% 6.5% 1.23 0.73
Eovaldi NYY OAK 241 4.33 3.93 1.36 50.0% 16.8% 5.2% 0.71 1.40
Hahn OAK NYY 112 3.54 3.79 1.23 57.1% 20.1% 8.7% 0.40 2.03
Perez ATL SFG
Lincecum SFG ATL 196.1 4.26 4.04 1.38 40.0% 19.8% 9.8% 0.92 1.64
Marcum CLE SEA
Elias SEA CLE 188.2 3.77 3.97 1.33 26.3% 20.6% 9.2% 0.95 1.36
Morton PIT SDP 157.1 3.72 3.73 1.27 50.0% 18.9% 8.6% 0.51 2.44
Ross SDP PIT 241.1 3.02 3.27 1.27 66.7% 24.5% 9.7% 0.60 2.69

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

We get dealt a frozen river of cards today. The cupboard is bare, even if expanding to the early set and including the full schedule of 15 games, as there isn’t a starting pitcher on the hill today whose talent and situation warrant a full-stack commitment. There are only a couple of pitchers who even qualify as worthy of a Raise.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Tyson Ross SD (vs. PIT) – For a pitcher who leads the National League in walks, Ross has been surprisingly consistent once the box scores are printed. He has allowed exactly two or three runs in nine of his ten starts this season (the other one had four runs), and he has registered between 15 and 21 outs in every outing. He’s had mixed results in three career starts versus the Pirates, and though he’s only faced Andrew McCutchen and Neil Walker for six plate appearances apiece, both batters have already taken Ross yard. Gregory Polanco faced Ross for the first time last August, going 2-for-3 with a double and a bomb. Sample size caveats abound, but some of the Pittsburgh bats will carry an extra dose of swagger into tonight’s game.

Michael Wacha STL (vs. LAD) – Wacha has been a machine in 2015. The strikeouts are way down, but he has consistently generated weak contact while keeping freebies off the base paths. Aside from an inexplicable four-spot against the hapless Phillies, Wacha has kept the opposing bats at two earned runs or less in every start. He shows up, throws his hundred pitches, lets the defense do its thing, and when the smoke clears he typically stands with a big W on his stat sheet (7-0 record this season).

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher wOBA vs L ERA vs L wOBA vs R ERA vs R AVG OPS BABIP FIP AVG-A Pit/G Strk%
Sanchez 0.375 3.96 0.191 2.03 0.231 0.623 0.210 4.32 0.183 36.16 17.8%
Gibson 0.305 3.56 0.301 4.59 0.235 0.718 0.283 3.93 0.255 92.00 13.1%
De La Rosa 0.259 3.33 0.336 4.74 0.281 0.756 0.273 4.19 0.236 94.22 18.9%
Harang 0.321 2.80 0.294 3.48 0.284 0.772 0.306 3.42 0.257 102.02 18.3%
Ramirez 0.329 4.69 0.377 7.04 0.281 0.835 0.306 5.02 0.27 0.00 18.1%
Chen 0.290 2.64 0.328 3.70 0.246 0.736 0.283 4.02 0.253 96.24 18.0%
Hellickson 0.328 4.79 0.365 4.97 0.232 0.650 0.330 4.34 0.286 0.00 17.9%
Lohse 0.314 3.93 0.305 4.16 0.256 0.693 0.267 4.16 0.242 97.15 17.6%
Gonzalez 0.282 3.54 0.312 3.91 0.224 0.668 0.315 2.97 0.24 97.68 24.3%
Iglesias 0.346 7.20 0.252 1.00 0.239 0.669 0.250 2.68 0.2 70.67 18.3%
Koehler 0.309 3.73 0.306 3.72 0.235 0.653 0.285 4.03 0.244 90.13 19.0%
Niese 0.294 3.97 0.339 3.42 0.276 0.758 0.302 3.76 0.263 93.27 16.8%
Quintana 0.287 4.80 0.306 3.16 0.223 0.673 0.322 2.87 0.257 104.28 21.7%
Keuchel 0.246 2.27 0.285 2.79 0.194 0.529 0.280 3.13 0.234 104.27 18.3%
Ventura 0.302 3.32 0.309 3.78 0.242 0.694 0.290 3.84 0.243 95.00 19.9%
Wada 0.244 1.17 0.339 3.66 0.297 0.805 0.296 3.75 0.251 88.15 19.7%
Frias 0.383 6.94 0.279 5.02 0.279 0.762 0.301 3.35 0.251 38.90 20.9%
Wacha 0.276 3.05 0.280 2.44 0.275 0.876 0.273 3.32 0.228 91.08 19.1%
Miley 0.314 5.34 0.329 4.08 0.240 0.700 0.314 4.03 0.263 95.78 20.1%
Gonzalez 0.257 0.714
Greene 0.352 4.63 0.272 3.36 0.227 0.624 0.315 3.66 0.258 87.17 20.4%
Weaver 0.323 3.90 0.277 3.39 0.291 0.803 0.267 4.33 0.242 97.48 17.6%
Eovaldi 0.351 4.56 0.303 4.14 0.279 0.767 0.326 3.50 0.281 97.20 16.8%
Hahn 0.307 4.35 0.250 2.35 0.228 0.694 0.284 3.33 0.229 86.71 20.1%
Perez 0.405 9.53 0.293 0.245 0.673
Lincecum 0.303 3.75 0.351 4.60 0.255 0.707 0.297 4.11 0.25 83.05 19.8%
Marcum 0.483 10.80 0.227 3.86 0.234 0.660
Elias 0.298 3.07 0.327 3.75 0.226 0.638 0.297 4.13 0.249 92.58 20.6%
Morton 0.301 3.53 0.317 3.80 0.244 0.694 0.295 3.72 0.242 96.31 18.9%
Ross 0.308 3.16 0.283 2.93 0.234 0.642 0.3 3.28 0.23 100.08 24.5%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Editor’s Note: Kansas City at Chicago has been postponed. Do not roster any players from the Royals or Cubs.

Yordano Ventura KC (at CHC) – It’s supposed to be a cold day in Chicago, and Ventura will attempt to rediscover some of last year’s heat despite the wind chill. The cool conditions and free-swinging opponent could play into Ventura’s favor, and he needs all the help that he can get right now, having given up 4-to-5 runs in four consecutive turns.

Tsuyoshi Wada CHC (vs. KC) – Wada has been a control artist throughout his professional career, but the sudden rash of strikeouts has caught Fantasyland off-guard. Against the Padres in his first start, Wada recorded 15 outs on the day, 9 of which came via the punchout, and he did so with just 69 pitches thrown. Now he turns his attention to the hardest club to K, where the Royals will likely do their best to bring his 2015 strikeout rate back in line with his stateside average (majors and minors) of 8 K’s per nine.

Tim Lincecum SF (vs. ATL) – Admit it, you enjoy watching the resurrection of Big Time Timmy Jim. It might be scary on some levels, creepy on others (the thin mustache doesn’t help), and then you realize that it’s just little Mitch Kramer all grown up and cease to worry. He gets an easy matchup today with the Braves and Lincecum has shut down the only real threat in the Atlanta lineup, holding Freddie Freeman to a 4-for-19 line with zero extra-base hits, two walks, and a pair of strikeouts in his 21 career face-to-face meetings.

Nathan Eovaldi NYY (at OAK) – He has a new pitch and a new uniform, but the results are more of the same for Captain Eo. A sub-7.0 rate of K/9? Check. An ERA in the low-to-mid 4.00’s? Check. More than 10 hits allowed for every 9 innings? Check. Perhaps the new splitter has helped Eovaldi to combat the transition from comfy Miami to the flyball hell of new Yankee Stadium, but Eovaldi’s supporters are getting tired of making excuses for why a pitcher with one of the hardest fastballs in the game struggles to miss more bats.

Roenis Elias SEA (vs. CLE) – Cleveland is notoriously weak versus southpaws, given a lineup that is so top-heavy with lefties that Ryan Raburn moves from the bench to the cleanup spot when a southpaw is on the mound. Elias has been solid in his MLB career thus far despite inconsistent playing time at the highest level, compiling a 3.60 ERA across 202.3 innings in MLB over the past two seasons. His run prevention was rather unsightly in the minors, with a 4.53 ERA in 441.3 innings pitched, but he has reeled it in as he has climbed the minor-league ladder.

Jesse Hahn OAK (vs. NYY) – A groundball master who keeps the ball in the yard, Hahn matches up well with a Yankee squad that relies heavily on the long ball to put runs on the board (their 62 homers is tied for second in the majors). The Oakland right-hander has surrendered just two homers in 53.7 innings this season and he’s already met his quota of one deep fly allowed this month, plus Hahn gets to enjoy Oakland’s expansive foul territory and stinginess toward flyballs help keep the Yankee veteran’s at bay.

Shane Greene DET (at LAA) – Greene made 14 starts in 2014 and is 10 games deep this season, and comparing the two campaigns reveals higher rates of true outcomes across the board in ’15 – fewer strikeouts, walks, and homers allowed per nine innings, not to mention a reduced hit rate this season, but the results are more or less the same, and averaging his 4.27 ERA and 3.47 WHIP produces a 3.87 figure that falls right in line with the 3.74 of last season. The Angels have a few heavy hitters but have been essentially punchless this year, turning a seemingly formidable opponent into a relatively soft landing spot for Greene (particularly with Albert Pujols struggling), and the right-hander must be pleased that Josh Hamilton is wearing a different uniform these days.

Jered Weaver LAA (vs. DET) – I keep telling folks to avoid the Detroit offense, with or without V-Mart, and yet pitchers keep shutting them down. The Tigers have scored just 2.85 runs per game over their last 13 contests, a stretch that has seen the club go 5-8 and includes flat performances against Halo southpaws C.J. Wilson and Hector Santiago. Weaver has descended into dangerous territory with his pitch velocity, resulting in an altered approach that has generated the lowest rates of K’s and Walks in his career. Weaver has pitched much better at home over the years, and that trend has continued this season with an OPS against that’s nearly 100 points lower when pitching at Angels Stadium. The ceiling is low but Weaver is catching Detroit at just the right time.

Carlos Frias LAD (at STL)
Williams Perez ATL (at SF)
Charlie Morton PIT (at SD)

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.

Wade Miley BOS (at TEX)
Shaun Marcum CLE (at SEA)
Chi Chi Gonzalez TEX (vs. BOS)

Starting Pitcher Salaries

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About the Author

DougThorburn
Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn)

Doug Thorburn’s work can be found elsewhere at Baseball Prospectus and Rotowire, and he is also the co-host of the Baseballholics Anonymous podcast. Thorburn’s expertise lies on the mound, where he tackles the world of pitching with an emphasis on mechanical evaluation. He spent five years at the National Pitching Association working under pitching coach Tom House, where Thorburn ran the hi-speed motion analysis program in addition to serving as an instructor. Thorburn and House wrote the 2009 book, “Arm Action, Arm Path, and the Perfect Pitch: Building a Million Dollar Arm,” using data from hi-speed motion analysis to tackle conventional wisdom in baseball.