Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, May 9th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2015-05-12 12:42:24

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Chen	BAL	NYY	185.2	3.54	3.85	1.23	31.6%	17.6%	4.5%	1.11	1.09
Whitley	NYY	BAL	75.2	5.23	3.70	1.48	18.2%	18.2%	5.5%	1.19	1.34
Kelly	BOS	TOR	96.1	4.20	4.29	1.35	40.0%	15.9%	10.1%	0.75	2.31
Hutchison	TOR	BOS	184.2	4.48	3.59	1.26	31.6%	23.4%	7.6%	1.12	0.80
Guthrie	KCR	DET	202.2	4.13	4.34	1.30	42.1%	14.4%	5.7%	1.02	1.19
Sanchez	DET	KCR	126	3.43	3.64	1.10	41.2%	19.8%	5.8%	0.29	1.31
Teheran	ATL	WAS	221	2.89	3.68	1.08	70.0%	21.0%	5.8%	0.90	0.79
Fister	WAS	ATL	164	2.41	3.93	1.08	58.3%	14.8%	3.6%	0.99	1.43
Hughes	MIN	CLE	209.2	3.52	3.17	1.13	45.0%	21.8%	1.9%	0.69	0.91
Chen	CLE	MIN	48.1	7.45	4.42	1.76	20.0%	16.1%	7.2%	1.30	0.69
Detwiler	TEX	TBR	63	4.00	4.13	1.41		14.2%	7.7%	0.71	1.40
Odorizzi	TBR	TEX	168	4.13	3.66	1.28	36.8%	24.2%	8.2%	1.07	0.61
Niese	NYM	PHI	187.2	3.40	3.78	1.27	41.2%	17.6%	5.7%	0.82	1.60
Harang	PHI	NYM	204.1	3.57	4.18	1.40	75.0%	18.4%	8.1%	0.66	1.04
Martinez	STL	PIT	89.1	4.03	3.45	1.41		21.8%	9.3%	0.40	1.88
Worley	PIT	STL	110.2	2.85	3.68	1.21	40.0%	17.3%	4.8%	0.73	1.63
Wood	CHC	MIL	173.2	5.03	4.41	1.53	30.0%	18.7%	9.7%	1.04	0.81
Lohse	MIL	CHC	198.1	3.54	4.04	1.15	50.0%	17.3%	5.5%	1.00	0.99
Cueto	CIN	CWS	243.2	2.25	3.15	0.96	76.2%	25.2%	6.8%	0.81	1.34
Rodon	CWS	CIN
Ross	SDP	ARI	195.2	2.81	3.21	1.21	66.7%	24.0%	8.9%	0.60	2.58
Anderson	ARI	SDP	114.1	4.01	3.78	1.37	40.0%	21.6%	8.2%	1.26	1.12
Kershaw	LAD	COL	198.1	1.77	2.09	0.86	66.7%	31.9%	4.1%	0.41	1.77
De La Rosa	COL	LAD	184.1	4.10	4.05	1.24	40.0%	18.1%	8.7%	1.03	1.69
Phelps	MIA	SFG	113	4.38	4.21	1.42	42.9%	18.5%	9.3%	1.04	1.18
Bumgarner	SFG	MIA	217.1	2.98	2.98	1.09	47.6%	25.1%	4.9%	0.87	1.24
Keuchel	HOU	LAA	200	2.93	3.11	1.18	50.0%	18.1%	5.9%	0.50	3.30
Shoemaker	LAA	HOU	136	3.04	3.19	1.07	44.4%	22.8%	4.4%	0.93	1.05
Hahn	OAK	SEA	73.1	3.07	3.73	1.21	57.1%	22.9%	10.5%	0.49	1.83
Happ	SEA	OAK	158	4.22	3.94	1.34	30.8%	19.8%	7.6%	1.25	1.03

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Madison Bumgarner SF (vs. MIA) – Giancarlo Stanton is the ace-destroyer, saving his best performances for the game’s top pitchers. He has ruined NL East rivals Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg, and though the sample size is a bit smaller, he has also enjoyed his run-ins with Bumgarner, with a slash of .615/.661/1.231 in 15 plate appearances, including 5 doubles and a home run. Bummer has shown no ill effects from the gargantuan workload that he endured in 2015, and though the K rate is a bit lower than the last couple seasons, his walk rate of 3.8% would qualify as the best of his career if he keeps it up for the whole season.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Tyson Ross SD (at ARI) – Ross has been a strikeout factory this season, manufacturing whiffs at a rate of nearly 11 K’s per nine innings. Unfortunately for the Padres, that K factory is also polluting the bases with free passes, and the right-hander’s carbon stamp of True Outcomes includes 42 strikeouts and 21 walks in his 34.7 innings. The side effect has been high pitch counts, and the only start in which Ross cleared the 18-out checkpoint was in his last turn (which only featured 5 punchouts). The runs tally has been very consistent, with Ross giving up between 2 and 4 earnies in each of his six starts this year.

Editor’s Note: The Dodgers at Rockies game has been postponed.

Clayton Kershaw LAD (at COL) – This is probably the lowest that you will see Kersh ranked in this space all season, but even the best pitcher of our generation is not immune to the run-inflating effects of Coors Field. Weather threatens to wash this game away, but if played then Kershaw will likely have to deal with a bit less break on his curveball and slider, a factor which has contributed to his career ERA of 4.58 across 90 innings when pitching in Denver.

Dallas Keuchel HOU (at LAA) – I’ve been pessimistic on Keuchel all season, largely due to pedestrian stuff along with peripheral stats that fail to support his ridiculous run prevention (while freely admitting that his defense is legit). His .174 BABIP is unsustainable and baseballs will eventually leave the yard, so regression is unavoidable, but I’ve come around to Keuchel’s style of pitch movement and manipulation, enough to put his tough matchup with the Halos today in the Raise category for today’s slate of pitchers.

Carlos Martinez STL (at PIT) – Martinez steamrolled through April, finishing the month with a 1.73 ERA and four consecutive quality starts. The right-hander was due for some regression to the mean, but rather than a slow drift, the regression hit seemingly all at once with his seven-run disaster against the Cubs in his last turn. The K rate has been dropping from start-to-start while the walk rate’s been rising, and Martinez will need to reverse one or both of those trends if he is to be an effective insurance policy in the wake of the season-ending injury to Adam Wainwright.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Chen	0.298	3.20	0.326	3.65	0.266	0.837	0.296	3.89	0.263	96.03	17.6%
Whitley	0.380	6.18	0.348	4.21	0.281	0.835	0.353	4.14	0.305	52.71	18.2%
Kelly	0.318	3.60	0.307	4.86	0.235	0.718	0.274	4.37	0.24	92.94	15.9%
Hutchison	0.353	5.69	0.273	3.07	0.257	0.714	0.293	3.85	0.241	95.34	23.4%
Guthrie	0.364	5.13	0.270	2.97	0.291	0.803	0.294	4.32	0.268	101.09	14.4%
Sanchez	0.251	2.48	0.290	4.89	0.311	0.817	0.277	2.71	0.225	95.32	19.8%
Teheran	0.301	3.31	0.262	2.46	0.239	0.669	0.267	3.49	0.227	99.12	21.0%
Fister	0.306	2.48	0.273	2.36	0.255	0.707	0.262	3.93	0.242	98.72	14.8%
Hughes	0.272	2.71	0.321	4.47	0.247	0.701	0.324	2.65	0.265	95.19	21.8%
Chen	0.336	7.98	0.419	7.22	0.262	0.672	0.380	4.58	0.335	0.00	16.1%
Detwiler	0.235	1.61	0.368	5.31	0.246	0.736	0.309	4.16	0.274	22.04	14.2%
Odorizzi	0.294	4.15	0.324	4.09	0.193	0.559	0.295	3.75	0.238	97.68	24.2%
Niese	0.289	4.21	0.329	3.14	0.281	0.756	0.304	3.67	0.263	93.07	17.6%
Harang	0.330	2.86	0.312	4.17	0.235	0.653	0.318	3.57	0.267	102.85	18.4%
Martinez	0.363	5.65	0.275	2.91	0.234	0.642	0.333	3.18	0.26	24.19	21.8%
Worley	0.297	2.32	0.304	3.28	0.279	0.762	0.299	3.44	0.259	87.67	17.3%
Wood	0.276	4.13	0.371	5.37	0.198	0.488	0.320	4.38	0.272	98.23	18.7%
Lohse	0.319	4.08	0.286	3.08	0.242	0.694	0.268	3.95	0.24	96.84	17.3%
Cueto	0.257	2.05	0.261	2.44	0.256	0.679	0.238	3.30	0.192	107.62	25.2%
Rodon					0.224	0.668
Ross	0.289	2.92	0.286	2.70	0.256	0.693	0.291	3.24	0.226	100.61	24.0%
Anderson	0.314	3.76	0.363	4.23	0.244	0.694	0.313	4.22	0.264	90.10	21.6%
Kershaw	0.215	0.96	0.237	1.96	0.259	0.726	0.278	1.81	0.194	100.81	31.9%
De La Rosa	0.241	2.47	0.336	4.61	0.239	0.651	0.263	4.34	0.233	95.84	18.1%
Phelps	0.314	4.30	0.356	4.47	0.245	0.673	0.301	4.41	0.259	60.16	18.5%
Bumgarner	0.239	1.84	0.301	3.31	0.276	0.758	0.296	3.05	0.235	102.18	25.1%
Keuchel	0.268	2.61	0.299	3.03	0.252	0.754	0.295	3.21	0.248	104.14	18.1%
Shoemaker	0.308	3.34	0.271	2.73	0.244	0.747	0.286	3.26	0.237	77.81	22.8%
Hahn	0.291	4.14	0.278	1.98	0.234	0.660	0.270	3.40	0.211	84.29	22.9%
Happ	0.379	5.17	0.327	3.98	0.206	0.543	0.297	4.27	0.258	90.33	19.8%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Matt Shoemaker LAA (vs. HOU) – His K and walk ratios are nearly identical to those from his 2014 breakout, but the results on contact have taken on a different form than last season. Individual games can greatly sway a pitcher’s stat lines this early in the season, and Shoemaker’s 10-strikeout gem (with only one walk) against Seattle in his last start helped to bring the peripherals back in line. He has given up three or more earned runs in every turn this season (it was three solo homers in his last start), and though the heavy-whiffing Houston lineup might boost his K count, the Astros have also been an offensive juggernaut of late and could run up the score against Shoemaker.

Aaron Harang PHI (vs. NYM) – Harang has one of the simplest, most compact deliveries that you will ever see. The simplicity aids his ability to repeat the motion, with a positive ripple effect on his pitch command, and the 37-year old has been spotting the baseball as well this season as any other time in his career. The 2.35 ERA is over his head and he’s pretty unlikely to post a single-game spike in strikeouts, but Harang has temporarily earned his way into the circle of trust as a relatively safe pitcher, if such a thing exists.

Jon Niese NYM (at PHI) – The southpaw’s act might be boring to watch, with below-average velocity and a contact-heavy approach, but he has been quietly effective throughout his career. His ERA for the past three seasons has been between 3.40 and 3.71 in each year, with a modest K rate and a slightly above average control of the strike zone. His ranking in this space is mostly predicated on his opponent, as Niese faces baseball’s lowest-scoring offense and has the platoon advantage to take the bat out of the hands of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard.

Jesse Hahn OAK (at SEA) – Hahn’s strikeout rate was deceivingly low for the first couple of weeks, with just 5 punchouts through his first 17 innings, but the right-hander has rebounded with 11 K in his last 10 innings. He has also taken a beating in that time, allowing 9 runs and 14 hits, and though his avoidance of free passes and homers has remained intact (four walks and one homer in 27 frames this year), the frequency of baserunners has limited him to no more than 6.0 innings in any one start.

Travis Wood CHC (at MIL) – Wood gets more attention these days for what he does with the bat than what he does on the mound, and sure enough, his bat is good enough to justify Joe Maddon’s strategy of hitting the pitcher eighth whether you agree with the tactic or not. Too bad we don’t get credit for Wood’s points at the plate in DFS because his mound performance has left something to be desired, and his extreme over-the-top delivery leads to a lot of flyballs, some of which are bound to clear the wall.

J.A. Happ SEA (vs. OAK) – Happ started the season on a roll, giving up two or fewer earned runs in each of his first four turns of the rotation and pitching 6.3 or more innings in each game. But he coughed up 6 earned runs against the Astros in his last start, with three walks (doubling his season total) and a pair of homers allowed (matching his season total to that point). Happ faced Oakland in his first start, and though he watched only two runners cross the plate, the combination of seven hits and one strikeout underscored his issues with balls in play.

Vance Worley PIT (vs. STL) – Worley had a rough introduction to the season, giving up six runs in his first start of the year, but he has since calmed the waters to post a 2.66 ERA over his last 23.7 innings. He’s not the type of pitcher to post a random spike of dominance, having posted more than a half-dozen strikeouts only three times in 32 starts over the past three seasons, capped at a single-game high of 8 K’s in that time period.

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.