Daily Pitcher Breakdown: September 2nd
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latos | CIN | BAL | 91.1 | 3.15 | 4.05 | 1.08 | 66.7% | 18.1% | 6.5% | 0.69 | 0.96 |
| Norris | BAL | CIN | 135 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 1.24 | 26.7% | 18.6% | 7.3% | 0.93 | 1.21 |
| Lobstein | DET | CLE | 11.2 | 3.09 | 5.86 | 1.11 | 6.4% | 10.6% | 0.00 | 1.20 | |
| Carrasco | CLE | DET | 89.2 | 3.01 | 2.85 | 1.00 | 24.3% | 5.9% | 0.60 | 1.66 | |
| Kelly | BOS | NYY | 63 | 4.14 | 4.39 | 1.40 | 40.0% | 15.8% | 10.3% | 0.86 | 2.15 |
| Greene | NYY | BOS | 55.1 | 3.09 | 3.22 | 1.27 | 100.0% | 22.8% | 7.2% | 0.81 | 2.15 |
| Dickey | TOR | TBR | 175.2 | 4.00 | 4.04 | 1.31 | 47.6% | 19.4% | 8.3% | 1.18 | 1.18 |
| Hellickson | TBR | TOR | 42.1 | 2.98 | 3.92 | 1.20 | 20.0% | 6.3% | 0.85 | 0.71 | |
| Niese | NYM | MIA | 155.1 | 3.48 | 3.91 | 1.30 | 41.2% | 16.9% | 6.6% | 0.81 | 1.71 |
| Penny | MIA | NYM | 13.1 | 5.40 | 5.77 | 1.80 | 11.1% | 14.3% | 0.68 | 1.38 | |
| Kendrick | PHI | ATL | 166.2 | 4.97 | 4.50 | 1.37 | 30.0% | 13.6% | 6.3% | 1.19 | 1.23 |
| Minor | ATL | PHI | 126.1 | 4.70 | 3.75 | 1.42 | 50.0% | 20.2% | 6.6% | 1.42 | 1.15 |
| Gallardo | MIL | CHC | 165.2 | 3.26 | 3.74 | 1.24 | 50.0% | 17.7% | 6.7% | 0.87 | 1.89 |
| Arrieta | CHC | MIL | 128.1 | 2.88 | 2.97 | 1.05 | 50.0% | 26.4% | 7.0% | 0.35 | 1.69 |
| Holland | TEX | KCR | |||||||||
| Guthrie | KCR | TEX | 172.2 | 4.43 | 4.30 | 1.33 | 42.1% | 15.2% | 6.0% | 1.15 | 1.13 |
| Noesi | CWS | MIN | 140.1 | 4.75 | 4.32 | 1.39 | 26.7% | 17.3% | 7.9% | 1.41 | 0.89 |
| Milone | MIN | CWS | 113.1 | 4.21 | 4.56 | 1.37 | 43.8% | 14.1% | 6.7% | 1.19 | 1.01 |
| Wilson | LAA | HOU | 147.1 | 4.46 | 4.14 | 1.43 | 42.1% | 19.9% | 10.6% | 0.98 | 1.62 |
| Peacock | HOU | LAA | 112.1 | 5.13 | 4.51 | 1.58 | 28.6% | 19.8% | 12.0% | 1.36 | 0.91 |
| Locke | PIT | STL | 105 | 3.51 | 4.09 | 1.22 | 66.7% | 15.4% | 6.3% | 1.11 | 1.63 |
| Wainwright | STL | PIT | 188 | 2.59 | 3.62 | 1.06 | 84.2% | 20.0% | 6.0% | 0.34 | 1.43 |
| Petit | SFG | COL | 86.1 | 3.44 | 2.60 | 1.00 | 40.0% | 28.3% | 5.0% | 0.73 | 0.70 |
| Lyles | COL | SFG | 97 | 4.08 | 4.11 | 1.34 | 58.3% | 17.3% | 9.6% | 0.84 | 2.21 |
| Paxton | SEA | OAK | 39.1 | 1.83 | 3.25 | 1.09 | 50.0% | 21.0% | 7.0% | 0.69 | 2.61 |
| Gray | OAK | SEA | 178 | 3.03 | 3.64 | 1.21 | 60.0% | 20.2% | 8.4% | 0.56 | 2.11 |
| Fister | WAS | LAD | 130.1 | 2.55 | 3.85 | 1.10 | 58.3% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 1.04 | 1.41 |
| Kershaw | LAD | WAS | 161.1 | 1.73 | 2.02 | 0.84 | 66.7% | 32.1% | 3.8% | 0.45 | 1.84 |
| Miley | ARI | SDP | 176 | 4.30 | 3.58 | 1.34 | 33.3% | 21.8% | 8.3% | 1.18 | 1.74 |
| Despaigne | SDP | ARI | 72.1 | 3.24 | 4.25 | 1.24 | 100.0% | 16.3% | 8.2% | 0.62 | 1.53 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
h3. PLATINUM BUYS:
These are aces who don’t really need much explanation at all. They’re expensive, but awesome. If an ace-level arm is struggling a bit or has a tough matchup, he might fall into the gold or silver tiers, but otherwise you’re going to find the Kershaws, Hernandez, and Sales of the world in here.
Clayton Kershaw LAD (v. WAS)
Adam Wainwright STL (v. PIT)
Jake Arrieta CHC (v. MIL) – I’m not really sweating the dud v. CIN. It sucked because they have been so bad and he’s been good, but it happens.
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Shane Greene NYY (v. BOS) – Greene just keeps rolling! Another decimation of Detroit left him with a 2.93 ERA in 30.7 IP during August with 35 Ks and a 3.9 K:BB ratio. He’s got real velocity (avg. of 94-95 MPH on his fastball) and a slider/cutter (slutter) that is classified as two separate pitches because of the velocity difference, but however you want to classify them (or it), they work very well. A full two-thirds of his strikeouts have come via those pitches and batters have a meager .553 OPS against them in 95 PA. Boston’s .558 combined OPS against righty sliders and cutters slots them 25th in the league for the season.
Doug Fister WAS (at LAD) – He’s been knocked around a bit in his last two starts (8 ER in 11.7 IP) and yet it’s pushed his ERA up to all of 2.55 for the season because he’d been so dominant before those starts. He doesn’t register the strikeouts of most Gold-level arms, but he often goes deep into his starts with excellent ratios which makes up for the lower strikeout totals.
Yovani Gallardo MIL (at CHC) – I’ve been impressed with Gallardo’s season. If you had told me that his strikeout would continue to sink, I’d have expected that his ERA would also continue to rise, but he has stemmed the tide on the latter in a big way by posting a career-best 3.26 ERA so far despite a career-worst 6.6 K9 rate. Posting a career-best 2.5 BB9 rate has spurred the improvement as he’s no longer getting burned by free passes as regularly. At his best, he’s still going seven strong innings with a handful of strikeouts. In fact, he has eight starts of 7+ IP with 2 or fewer ER, including a 7 IP/1 ER effort on August 11th against these Cubs. The Cubs are a flashier offense with their recent additions from the minor leagues (10th in OPS in Aug), but they canceled some of that out with an obscene 27% K rate that was easily baseball’s highest.
Sonny Gray OAK (v. SEA) – Gray hasn’t been his sharpest throughout August. He started with a 7 IP/1 ER gem, but then slogged through five starts en route to a 5.06 ERA (2 really bad starts, 3 solid ones) with just 21 Ks in 32 IP. And yet, when you have a 2.59 ERA in 22 starts before a run of five modest starts, you get the benefit of the doubt. There’s nothing in Gray’s game that is a major concern especially since the ERA is really inflated by the two bad outings.
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.
Mat Latos CIN (at BAL) – I’m a huge fan of Latos, but a trip to Baltimore is scary for any pitcher so I had to drop him a tier even as he appears to be getting better and stronger start-to-start. He finished August with a 2.95 ERA and 35 Ks in 39.7 IP and he deserved better than his 3-0 record as he allowed just 1 ER in two of the three no-decisions.
Mike Minor ATL (v. PHI) – Minor went through a disastrous mid-summer run that shot his ERA up well north of 5.00 as his previous home run issues returned with a vengeance. He had six multi-HR games in his first 22 starts, but he’s allowed just two (though it was a multi-HR game) in the four starts since. His fastball command has returned in a big way and spurred an impressive four-start run (2.22 ERA, 24 Ks in 28.3 IP with just 2 HRs allowed). He’s avoided his division foes so far this year, but does have a pretty strong record against them in 42.7 career innings (3.59 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 4.0 K:BB ratio).
James Paxton SEA (at OAK) – Though still a small sample in itself, Paxton has kinda shown that last year’s small sample might not have been that much of a fluke. Sure a 1.50 ERA is always going to be fluky on some level, but he’s matched his component numbers almost exactly (yielding a 3.0 K:BB ratio) and it’s looking more and more like he has made this change in his approach from the minors, favoring command and control over the strikeout. His 7.6 K9 is still plenty useful, but he never had a minor league walk rate below 3.6 and now he sits at 2.6 in 63.3 MLB IP. Oakland didn’t really hurt lefties that much even at their best, but they have fallen to 20th in OPS against them since the break.
Carlos Carrasco CLE (v. DET) – Late-bloomer finally emerging or just a nice run? That’s the question with Carrasco and with just four starts, we don’t know the answer, but there is reason to believe it’s the former. He was a blue-chip prospect for years, but he just couldn’t harness his impressive stuff. After spending the bulk of the year refining his stuff in the bullpen, he has returned to the rotation with his best work ever. He has an 0.73 ERA in four starts with 24 Ks and just three walks in 24.7 IP (3-0 record, too). His slider has been virtually unhittable to the tune of a 2-for-21 with 11 Ks in 22 PA during the four starts.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Wade Miley ARI (at SD) – San Diego’s offensive renaissance has died down quite a bit. They were fifth in the league against lefties in the final two weeks of July after the break, but they were back down to 22nd in August and they are 28th in the last two weeks. Miley has allowed 7 ER in four starts after that 10 ER start against KC to open August. He was lucky in Washington (14 base runners, no runs), but the other three have been strong. He fanned 11 Padres, a season-high, back in late-May.
Hector Noesi CWS (at MIN) – This is a new name in the mix! He had a solid 3.24 ERA in August and he’s actually been throwing relatively well since late-June. It’s just a matter of your risk tolerance because he still has those super-duds mixed in. Here are his earned runs totals in his last 12 starts: 2, 5, 0, 6, 3, 2, 6, 1, 0, 5, 4, and 2.
Kyle Lobstein DET (at CLE) – I’m not getting overly excited by his 6 IP/1 ER v. NYY as it came with zero strikeouts, but I’ll always take a look at a lefty against Cleveland. They are 26th in OPS against lefties this year.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Yusmeiro Petit SF (at COL) – Too focused on pounding the zone and inducing weak contact to trust in Coors where contact can be so damaging.
- Tommy Milone MIN (v. CWS)
- Brad Peacock HOU (v. LAA)
- Brad Penny MIA (v. NYM)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latos | 0.253 | 2.45 | 0.296 | 3.80 | 0.258 | 0.727 | 0.252 | 3.51 | 0.218 | 96.64 | 18.1% |
| Norris | 0.321 | 3.86 | 0.318 | 4.15 | 0.240 | 0.664 | 0.288 | 4.12 | 0.249 | 97.39 | 18.6% |
| Lobstein | 0.249 | 0.669 | 0.205 | 3.90 | 0.19 | 91.50 | 6.4% | ||||
| Carrasco | 0.260 | 2.86 | 0.251 | 3.15 | 0.271 | 0.741 | 0.265 | 2.88 | 0.209 | 39.91 | 24.3% |
| Kelly | 0.324 | 3.09 | 0.332 | 5.46 | 0.244 | 0.685 | 0.283 | 4.57 | 0.25 | 88.92 | 15.8% |
| Greene | 0.320 | 2.54 | 0.275 | 3.67 | 0.242 | 0.677 | 0.308 | 3.54 | 0.247 | 90.60 | 22.8% |
| Dickey | 0.321 | 3.18 | 0.331 | 4.62 | 0.248 | 0.688 | 0.280 | 4.42 | 0.244 | 104.61 | 19.4% |
| Hellickson | 0.243 | 3.33 | 0.374 | 2.35 | 0.266 | 0.759 | 0.290 | 3.55 | 0.245 | 92.75 | 20.0% |
| Niese | 0.292 | 3.89 | 0.333 | 3.33 | 0.269 | 0.714 | 0.301 | 3.83 | 0.262 | 92.64 | 16.9% |
| Penny | 0.234 | 0.664 | 0.304 | 5.08 | 0.278 | 61.75 | 11.1% | ||||
| Kendrick | 0.368 | 5.87 | 0.317 | 4.33 | 0.241 | 0.666 | 0.291 | 4.63 | 0.271 | 97.04 | 13.6% |
| Minor | 0.396 | 5.55 | 0.340 | 4.50 | 0.248 | 0.706 | 0.326 | 4.35 | 0.282 | 100.29 | 20.2% |
| Gallardo | 0.269 | 2.28 | 0.324 | 4.07 | 0.231 | 0.666 | 0.285 | 3.81 | 0.248 | 100.59 | 17.7% |
| Arrieta | 0.274 | 2.59 | 0.235 | 3.10 | 0.257 | 0.723 | 0.281 | 2.39 | 0.208 | 95.90 | 26.4% |
| Holland | 0.268 | 0.711 | |||||||||
| Guthrie | 0.367 | 5.33 | 0.278 | 3.21 | 0.250 | 0.669 | 0.298 | 4.47 | 0.272 | 103.00 | 15.2% |
| Noesi | 0.302 | 4.17 | 0.380 | 5.55 | 0.250 | 0.713 | 0.291 | 4.74 | 0.264 | 81.21 | 17.3% |
| Milone | 0.323 | 4.03 | 0.334 | 4.25 | 0.256 | 0.701 | 0.288 | 4.62 | 0.267 | 90.90 | 14.1% |
| Wilson | 0.285 | 4.30 | 0.343 | 4.51 | 0.267 | 0.751 | 0.306 | 4.39 | 0.257 | 103.96 | 19.9% |
| Peacock | 0.353 | 4.73 | 0.366 | 5.66 | 0.254 | 0.712 | 0.314 | 5.01 | 0.269 | 83.58 | 19.8% |
| Locke | 0.241 | 3.28 | 0.332 | 3.59 | 0.254 | 0.714 | 0.273 | 4.31 | 0.252 | 94.38 | 15.4% |
| Wainwright | 0.284 | 2.74 | 0.243 | 2.46 | 0.260 | 0.743 | 0.271 | 2.84 | 0.22 | 102.00 | 20.0% |
| Petit | 0.335 | 5.19 | 0.199 | 2.26 | 0.274 | 0.756 | 0.284 | 2.58 | 0.215 | 37.06 | 28.3% |
| Lyles | 0.376 | 4.24 | 0.269 | 3.93 | 0.249 | 0.689 | 0.279 | 4.27 | 0.243 | 95.06 | 17.3% |
| Paxton | 0.286 | 2.30 | 0.242 | 0.710 | 0.264 | 3.28 | 0.219 | 89.14 | 21.0% | ||
| Gray | 0.282 | 2.57 | 0.280 | 3.60 | 0.247 | 0.694 | 0.280 | 3.38 | 0.23 | 100.85 | 20.2% |
| Fister | 0.316 | 2.69 | 0.273 | 2.43 | 0.265 | 0.728 | 0.273 | 3.88 | 0.251 | 99.25 | 15.1% |
| Kershaw | 0.186 | 0.29 | 0.244 | 2.07 | 0.272 | 0.731 | 0.275 | 1.81 | 0.193 | 99.64 | 32.1% |
| Miley | 0.327 | 4.93 | 0.327 | 4.12 | 0.218 | 0.618 | 0.304 | 4.10 | 0.255 | 99.71 | 21.8% |
| Despaigne | 0.363 | 3.55 | 0.233 | 2.97 | 0.250 | 0.689 | 0.271 | 3.89 | 0.236 | 96.17 | 16.3% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window